Alberto Montes vs Ricky Turcios
Featherweight Bout • UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Saturday, March 7, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Alberto Montes
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Ricky Turcios
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alberto Montes
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2024 | Carlos Calderon | W | SUB (Anaconda Choke) (R2, 2:38) |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Kevin García | W | SUB (Anaconda Choke) (R2, 0:52) |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Adam Ortiz | W | SUB (D'arce Choke) (R1, 2:09) |
| Dec 17, 2021 | Ira Lukowsky | W | TKO (Punches) (R2, 0:17) |
| Feb 12, 2021 | Richie Santiago | W | SUB (Anaconda Choke) (R1, 2:01) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ricky Turcios
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | Benardo Sopaj | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| Jun 8, 2024 | Raul Rosas Jr. | L | SUB (Rear Naked Choke) (R2, 2:22) |
| Nov 19, 2022 | Kevin Natividad | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| Jul 9, 2022 | Aiemann Zahabi | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| Aug 28, 2021 | Brady Hiestand | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Alberto Montes Key Advantages
Montes' 9.83 submission attempts per 15 minutes is an extraordinary rate virtually unseen in the modern UFC. Seven of his 10 career wins have come by submission, including three by anaconda choke — his signature weapon. Turcios has already shown vulnerability to submissions, losing to Raul Rosas Jr. via RNC in Round 2. The alignment between Montes' best weapon and Turcios' worst defensive skill is the strongest predictive signal in this fight. Montes doesn't need traditional takedowns — his snap-downs and front headlock entries bypass conventional wrestling exchanges entirely, making his grappling threat even more dangerous.
Montes is a natural featherweight who has fought his entire career between 145-155 lbs. Turcios is moving up from 135 lbs for the first time in the UFC. The size, strength, and power differential on fight night could be significant, particularly in clinch exchanges, scrambles, and grappling sequences where Montes will look to impose his physicality. Getting snapped down into a front headlock by a bigger, stronger opponent is a nightmare scenario for Turcios, and Montes' ability to control from the clinch is amplified by his natural size advantage at featherweight.
Montes enters on a five-fight winning streak with four finishes, including the career-defining anaconda choke on the Contender Series. His 80% finish rate means he can end the fight at any moment with a submission. Turcios, by contrast, is on a two-fight losing streak and has lost 3 of his last 4 fights with zero UFC finishes. In a three-round fight, Montes can end things at any moment while Turcios needs 15 minutes to compile enough volume to win on the scorecards. The trajectory differential is stark — Montes is ascending while Turcios is declining, and this momentum factor carries real weight in competitive combat sports.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The UFC debut is the great unknown. The biggest stage of Montes' career in front of a Las Vegas PPV crowd at the T-Mobile Arena. If the moment overwhelms him, his timing could be off, his entries could be hesitant, and Turcios' experience advantage could become decisive. First-time nerves have derailed many promising prospects. We simply don't know how Montes' game translates against UFC-caliber athletes — his opponents have been regional-level fighters, and the jump in competition is enormous.
If Turcios can deny Montes' clinch entries, sprawl on takedown attempts, and keep the fight at range, Montes' primary weapon is neutralized. Montes has shown limited striking finishing ability (only 1 career KO/TKO), and a three-round striking contest favors Turcios' volume and cardio. The large 30-foot cage provides ample space for Turcios to circle, reset, and deny Montes' entries. His unorthodox movement and constant pressure could frustrate Montes and prevent him from closing the distance efficiently.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Montes should press forward from the opening bell, close the distance, and look for clinch entries. His path to victory runs through front headlock entries — he should use feints and level changes to get Turcios' head down, snap him into front headlock position, and immediately threaten the anaconda choke or D'arce choke. The large cage works against Montes, so he'll need to cut off the octagon aggressively and not let Turcios circle freely. If Montes can get this into a grappling scramble early, his finishing instincts take over.
On the feet, Montes should target the body to slow Turcios' movement and create the clinch exchanges he craves. Body shots force Turcios to lower his guard, which opens up snap-down opportunities and front headlock entries. Montes should avoid extended striking exchanges where Turcios' range and volume can score rounds. The key is using strikes as setups for grappling, not as his primary offensive weapon. His 4.98 SLpM output indicates he's willing to engage on the feet, but those strikes should serve as the bridge to his elite submission game.
🚀 Ricky Turcios Key Advantages
Turcios has been inside the octagon five times. He's fought under the UFC lights, managed the adrenaline dump of a UFC walkout, and competed on PPV cards (UFC 311). Montes has never experienced the UFC pressure cooker. Debut jitters are real — the cage feels different, the crowd changes your heart rate, and the pacing of a UFC fight is distinct from regional shows. This is Turcios' strongest advantage and a genuine equalizer against Montes' technical superiority. Training at Team Alpha Male with world-class training partners gives Turcios a preparation edge over anything Montes has faced.
Turcios' 71-inch reach and 5'9" height give him 2 inches of reach and height advantage over Montes. In the 30-foot cage, this allows Turcios to operate at range where he can land while Montes falls short. Combined with his elite cardio (13:44 average fight time — nearly double Montes' 7:38), Turcios can maintain a high-volume striking approach for the full 15 minutes. His 4.73 SLpM output and unorthodox movement make him difficult to time, and his constant pressure can frustrate orthodox fighters. If this fight stays standing for three rounds, Turcios' volume and conditioning become decisive weapons.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Montes gets a hold of Turcios in any clinch or scramble situation, the fight enters Montes' world. Turcios' 44% takedown defense and susceptibility to submissions (lost to Rosas Jr. via RNC) mean that even momentary grappling engagements carry existential risk. Montes' anaconda chokes come from front headlock position — he doesn't even need a takedown to threaten a fight-ending submission. This makes clinch and scramble positions exceptionally dangerous for Turcios.
A 2-fight losing streak and a 2-3 UFC record heading into a weight class change is not confidence-inspiring. Turcios has lost to Benardo Sopaj (UD), Raul Rosas Jr. (SUB), and Aiemann Zahabi (UD) — none of whom are elite fighters. Moving up from bantamweight, Turcios will likely be the smaller fighter on fight night. Montes will rehydrate to a larger frame, and in clinch and grappling exchanges, that strength differential could be the deciding factor.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Turcios needs to make this an ugly, high-volume kickboxing fight. He should use his reach advantage to stay at range, throw volume combinations, and circle away from Montes' clinch attempts. Push-kicks and teep kicks should manage distance and prevent Montes from getting inside. If Montes lunges for a clinch, Turcios should sprawl hard, circle away, and reset rather than engaging in any extended grappling. The large cage is his friend — more space to move, reset, and deny Montes' entries.
Turcios' best-case scenario is a three-round firefight where his cardio and volume outpace Montes' output. He should front-load activity to establish momentum and make Montes respect his striking output. Under no circumstances should Turcios initiate grappling — his 20% takedown accuracy makes it a wasted effort, and any wrestling exchange plays into Montes' hands. His path to victory runs through 15 minutes of high-volume striking, constant movement, and avoiding any sustained clinch or ground exchanges.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Fight Location Control
This fight will be defined by whether Montes can get inside. In a significant number of simulations, Montes closes the distance within the first 2-3 minutes and initiates clinch and scramble sequences. Turcios wants to keep it at range, but his 44% takedown defense and limited ability to disengage from clinch positions means he loses the positional battle more often than he wins it. Montes doesn't need a traditional takedown — his snap-downs and front headlock entries are unconventional and harder to defend. The 30-foot cage initially favors Turcios' movement, but Montes' pressure should progressively compress the space.
🔒Submission Danger Window
The front headlock position is Montes' kill zone. In simulations where Montes gets Turcios' head down — whether from a sprawl, a snap-down, or a scramble — the anaconda choke threat is immediate and severe. Turcios has no track record of defending this specific type of submission attack. Three separate opponents have been strangled by this exact technique. The alignment between Montes' 9.83 SubPer15 and Turcios' 44% TDDef creates the widest skill gap in this fight — a fundamental grappling mismatch that defines the matchup.
🧩The Debut Factor & Volume Path
We discount Montes slightly for the debut — historically, fighters making their first UFC appearance tend to underperform their skill level by a marginal amount due to adrenaline, pacing, and adjustment to the environment. However, Montes' DWCS performance (clean submission under the bright lights) suggests he handles pressure well. In simulations where the fight stays standing for extended periods, Turcios' volume and activity accumulate rounds on the scorecards. His 4.73 SLpM output creates the perception of aggression that judges reward. If Turcios can stuff clinch attempts and circle in the large cage, his path to a decision win opens up.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely individual outcome is Alberto Montes by Submission (44% probability), achieved through his elite front headlock game and anaconda choke — his signature weapon that has finished three opponents identically. Turcios' primary path is by Decision (24%), requiring him to keep the fight standing for 15 minutes using his reach, volume, and cardio advantages. Montes by Decision (10%) is viable if he controls via grappling but can't finish, while KO/TKO paths remain low-probability for both fighters. The trajectory differential (Montes ascending on a 5-fight streak vs Turcios declining on a 2-fight losing streak) amplifies the statistical edge.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 44% | Fair: +127
GOOD VALUE
Model: 66% | Montes finishes early
CONTRARIAN VALUE
Model: 24% | Fair: +317
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Submission path underpriced – Montes by Sub at +130 is near fair value for a 44% outcome.
- • Grappling mismatch overlooked – 9.83 SubPer15 vs 44% TDDef is the widest skill gap.
- • Debut discount applied – Market may overvalue Montes' unproven UFC status.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alberto Montes
Primary path via front headlock and anaconda choke
Grappling control without finish
GNP accumulation leads to stoppage
💥Outcome Distribution - Ricky Turcios
Best path via volume and reach at range
Early counters or accumulation if Montes plods forward
Low submission profile; unlikely path
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ricky Turcios
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest range striking equity before Montes closes distance.
- • Push kicks & circling: Use reach to stall clinch entries and stay on the outside.
- • Volume accumulation: Win rounds on activity if fight stays standing.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Alberto Montes
- • Close distance: Body hooks and level changes to initiate clinch sequences.
- • Front headlock hunting: Snap-downs and scrambles create anaconda choke opportunities.
- • Finish window: Most finishes occur in Rounds 1-2; pressure compounds if fight reaches R3.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong grappling edge tempered by UFC debut uncertainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite submission rate (9.83 SubPer15) vs poor TDDef (44%)
- • 5-fight win streak with 80% finish rate
- • Natural featherweight size advantage at 145 lbs
- • Proven under bright lights (DWCS submission win)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • UFC debut — untested against octagon-level competition
- • Turcios' 3-inch reach advantage and volume output
- • Large cage extends range-fighting time for Turcios
🏁Executive Summary
Alberto Montes brings an elite submission game headlined by his devastating anaconda choke — the same technique that has strangled three opponents identically. His 9.83 SubPer15 rate represents a generational submission threat, and it aligns perfectly against Turcios' 44% takedown defense, creating the widest skill gap in this matchup. Montes' natural featherweight frame gives him a size advantage over the bantamweight-sized Turcios, and his 5-fight win streak with 80% finishes shows a fighter on an ascending trajectory. However, the UFC debut introduces uncertainty — historically, debutants slightly underperform their skill level due to adrenaline management and octagon adjustment. Turcios' experience advantage (8 UFC fights), reach edge (71" vs 68"), and volume output (4.73 SLpM) give him a viable path if he can keep the fight standing.
Prediction: Montes by Submission most likely (44% probability) through front headlock entries and anaconda choke; Turcios' best path is by Decision (24%), requiring him to use reach, volume, and cardio to keep the fight at range for 15 minutes. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Montes can close distance and initiate grappling exchanges before Turcios accumulates enough volume on the outside.