Duško Todorović vs Donte Johnson
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2
Saturday, March 7, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Duško Todorović
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Donte Johnson
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Duško Todorović
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | José Medina | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 4:21) |
| 2025-05-31 | Zach Reese | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-09 | Mansur Abdul-Malik | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 2:44) |
| 2023-03-18 | Christian Leroy Duncan | L | TKO - Knee Injury (R1, 1:52) |
| 2022-10-15 | Jordan Wright | W | TKO - Ground and Pound (R2, 3:12) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Donte Johnson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Sedriques Dumas | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 1:25) |
| 2025-08-26 | Darion Abbey | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:04) |
| 2025-07-27 | James Ford | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:37) |
| 2025-06-14 | Ryan Parker | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 4:27) |
| 2025-04-19 | Jordan Seufzer | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 1:24) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Duško Todorović Key Advantages
Todorovic's 4.73 strikes landed per minute vs Johnson's 3.34 represents a significant volume advantage that can accumulate over three rounds. The Serbian's 57% striking accuracy combined with higher output creates opportunities to win minutes through consistent pressure. His ability to maintain this pace while mixing combinations and kicks allows him to control the striking exchanges. If Todorovic can survive the early onslaught and extend the fight, his volume advantage becomes increasingly valuable as Johnson's explosive pace becomes harder to sustain.
Todorovic's 8:01 average fight duration demonstrates his ability to compete in longer fights, with experience in Round 3 scenarios. His cardio advantage becomes critical if he can survive Johnson's early explosive pressure. The Serbian's 10 UFC fights provide valuable experience against diverse styles, while Johnson's limited UFC sample (1 fight) means his cardio in extended exchanges remains untested. If Todorovic can weather the storm and force Johnson into deeper waters, his superior conditioning and experience in three-round fights could become decisive factors.
Todorovic's 6'1" height advantage (vs Johnson's 5'8") combined with equal 74-inch reach creates opportunities to strike from distance. His longer frame allows him to maintain range while utilizing kicks and jabs effectively. The Serbian's ability to use his height to control distance becomes crucial in preventing Johnson from closing into his preferred clinch range. If Todorovic can utilize his reach effectively and prevent Johnson from closing distance, he can rack up significant strike differentials that favor him on scorecards.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Johnson's explosive start and early finish threat represents Todorovic's greatest vulnerability. The American's 6 R1 wins demonstrate his ability to overwhelm opponents before they can establish rhythm. Todorovic's recent losses include multiple R1 TKOs, showing vulnerability to early pressure. If Johnson can replicate his typical fast start and land clean shots in the opening minutes, Todorovic's defensive weaknesses (48% StrDef, 4.40 SApM) could be exposed before he can implement his volume-based gameplan.
Johnson's superior wrestling (6.01 TD15 vs Todorovic's 1.77) combined with 100% takedown accuracy creates a nightmare scenario for Todorovic. The Serbian's 42% takedown defense suggests he struggles when opponents commit to wrestling exchanges. Once Johnson secures takedowns, his ability to control position and threaten submissions (2.0 SubPer15) prevents Todorovic from implementing his volume striking gameplan. If Johnson can consistently take Todorovic down, the Serbian's primary weapon becomes neutralized.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Todorovic's primary objective must be surviving Johnson's explosive early pressure without taking significant damage. The Serbian should utilize his height and reach to maintain distance, circling away from Johnson's pressure and avoiding extended exchanges. His 57% striking accuracy allows him to land counter shots while moving, but he must prioritize defense over offense in the opening minutes. If Todorovic can navigate the first round without absorbing fight-ending damage, his cardio and volume advantages become increasingly valuable as the fight progresses.
Once Todorovic survives the early onslaught, he should implement his volume-based gameplan. His 4.73 SLpM output combined with mixing combinations and kicks can overwhelm Johnson if the American's pace begins to fade. The Serbian's ability to maintain consistent output over three rounds becomes crucial—if he can force Johnson into extended striking exchanges, his volume advantage can rack up significant strike differentials that favor him on scorecards. Todorovic should look to capitalize on his cardio advantage in Round 3, where Johnson's explosive pace becomes harder to sustain.
🚀 Donte Johnson Key Advantages
Johnson's 6.01 takedowns per 15min vs Todorovic's 1.77 represents a massive 3.4x differential that fundamentally controls fight location. The American's perfect 100% takedown accuracy combined with 80% takedown defense creates a scenario where he dictates where the fight takes place. Once Johnson secures takedowns, his 2.0 SubPer15 submission threat prevents Todorovic from implementing his volume striking gameplan. Johnson's ability to control position and threaten submissions makes him extremely dangerous in grappling exchanges.
Johnson's perfect 7-0 record with 6 Round 1 finishes demonstrates his ability to overwhelm opponents before they can establish rhythm. His explosive pressure combined with heavy hands creates fight-ending opportunities in the opening minutes. The American's 64% striking accuracy ensures his shots land cleanly, while his 58% striking defense prevents opponents from capitalizing on counter opportunities. Johnson's ability to finish fights early prevents opponents from implementing their gameplans, making him extremely dangerous in the first round.
Johnson's 1.87 strikes absorbed per minute vs Todorovic's 4.40 represents superior defensive efficiency that compounds over three rounds. The American's 58% striking defense combined with low absorption rate means he takes significantly less damage while maintaining offensive output. This defensive advantage becomes crucial in extended exchanges where Todorovic's high absorption rate (4.40 SApM) leaves him vulnerable to accumulating damage. Johnson's ability to minimize damage while maximizing offense creates a favorable damage economy that judges consistently reward.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Todorovic survives Johnson's early pressure and forces extended striking exchanges, the Serbian's volume advantage (4.73 SLpM vs 3.34) becomes increasingly valuable. Johnson's limited UFC experience means his cardio in three-round fights remains untested, while Todorovic's 8:01 average fight duration demonstrates his ability to compete in longer fights. If the fight extends beyond Round 1, Todorovic's volume accumulation and cardio advantage could overwhelm Johnson, especially if the American's explosive pace becomes difficult to sustain.
Todorovic's 5-inch height advantage combined with equal reach creates opportunities to control distance and prevent Johnson from closing into his preferred clinch range. If Todorovic can utilize his height effectively and maintain distance, he can rack up significant strike differentials that favor him on scorecards. The Serbian's ability to strike from range while preventing Johnson's wrestling entries becomes crucial—if he can keep the fight at extended range, his volume advantage becomes increasingly valuable while neutralizing Johnson's primary weapons.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Johnson's optimal strategy involves overwhelming Todorovic with explosive pressure from the opening bell. His 6 R1 finishes demonstrate his ability to finish fights before opponents can establish rhythm. The American should look to close distance quickly, utilizing his southpaw stance to create angles and land heavy shots. His 64% striking accuracy ensures clean connections, while his wrestling threat prevents Todorovic from settling into his volume-based gameplan. By establishing early dominance and potentially scoring a finish, Johnson can prevent Todorovic from implementing his cardio and volume advantages.
Johnson should utilize his superior wrestling to control fight location and neutralize Todorovic's volume striking. His 6.01 TD15 combined with perfect takedown accuracy allows him to dictate where exchanges occur. Once Johnson secures takedowns, his 2.0 SubPer15 submission threat prevents Todorovic from implementing his gameplan. The American's ability to control position and accumulate control time creates scoring opportunities while preventing Todorovic from racking up strike differentials. By consistently taking Todorovic down and controlling position, Johnson can bank minutes and potentially secure finishes through ground and pound or submissions.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates an interesting dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Johnson's explosive pressure and wrestling entries, but potentially shifting toward Todorovic's volume advantage if the fight extends. Johnson's perfect 6-0 R1 finish record demonstrates his ability to overwhelm opponents before they can establish rhythm, making the large cage space less relevant in early exchanges. However, Todorovic's 5-inch height advantage and equal reach create opportunities to control distance if he can survive the opening minutes. The Serbian's ability to utilize his height and maintain range becomes increasingly valuable as the fight progresses, especially if Johnson's explosive pace becomes difficult to sustain. The large cage provides Todorovic with space to circle and reset, potentially extending the fight into deeper waters where his cardio advantage becomes decisive.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: wrestling control and early finish threat vs volume accumulation. Johnson's 6.01 TD15 vs Todorovic's 1.77 represents a 3.4x differential that fundamentally controls fight location and scoring dynamics. While Todorovic's striking volume (4.73 SLpM, 57% accuracy) creates opportunities to win minutes, Johnson's damage economy (1.87 SApM vs 4.40) means he absorbs significantly less damage while maintaining offensive output. The American's 58% striking defense combined with his wrestling threat forces Todorovic into uncomfortable exchanges where his high-volume approach becomes less effective. These differentials create a scoring framework where Johnson's control time and damage efficiency consistently outweigh Todorovic's striking output in judges' eyes, especially if the fight extends beyond Round 1.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: early finish threat vs survival, wrestling control vs volume accumulation, and cardio durability in extended exchanges. Todorovic's 42% takedown defense suggests he struggles when opponents commit to wrestling, making Johnson's 6.01 TD15 extremely dangerous. The Serbian's ability to survive Johnson's explosive early pressure becomes crucial—if he can navigate the opening minutes without taking fight-ending damage, his volume and cardio advantages become increasingly valuable. Johnson's perfect R1 finish record demonstrates his ability to overwhelm opponents before they can establish rhythm, but Todorovic's 8:01 average fight duration shows his ability to compete in longer fights. As the fight progresses, Todorovic's superior cardio becomes increasingly decisive, especially if Johnson's explosive pace becomes difficult to sustain over three rounds.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Donte Johnson by KO/TKO (45% probability), achieved through explosive early pressure and overwhelming Todorovic before he can establish his volume-based gameplan. Johnson's submission path (11%) becomes viable if he secures takedowns and utilizes his 2.0 SubPer15 threat, particularly through guillotine chokes in clinch exchanges. The American's decision path (16%) requires consistent wrestling control and positional dominance over three rounds. Todorovic's upset lane centers on surviving early pressure and implementing his volume advantage (8% Decision, 14% KO/TKO, 6% Submission), but his vulnerability to early finishes makes this scenario increasingly unlikely given Johnson's perfect R1 finish record and Todorovic's recent R1 TKO losses.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
GOOD VALUE
SLIGHT VALUE
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Duško Todorović
Volume advantage if fight extends to later rounds
High-volume striking accumulation
Rear naked choke opportunities in scrambles
💥Outcome Distribution - Donte Johnson
Explosive pressure and early finish threat
Wrestling control and positional dominance
Guillotine choke threat in clinch exchanges
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Donte Johnson
- • First 5 minutes: Highest finish equity via explosive pressure.
- • Wrestling control: Secure takedowns and control position to neutralize volume.
- • Submission threats: Utilize 2.0 SubPer15 to finish or force errors.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Duško Todorović
- • Survive early: Navigate first round without taking fight-ending damage.
- • Volume accumulation: Utilize 4.73 SLpM to rack up strike differentials.
- • Cardio advantage: Force extended exchanges where conditioning becomes decisive.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via wrestling control and early finish threat
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant takedown volume edge (6.01 vs 1.77 TD15)
- • Lower SApM and better damage economy (1.87 vs 4.40)
- • Perfect R1 finish record (6-0) demonstrates early threat
- • Superior defensive efficiency (58% vs 48% StrDef)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Limited UFC sample (1 fight) means cardio untested
- • Todorovic's height advantage creates range control opportunities
- • Volume accumulation if fight extends beyond R1
🏁Executive Summary
Donte Johnson's explosive early pressure and wrestling dominance create a clear path to victory, with his perfect 6-0 R1 finish record demonstrating his ability to overwhelm opponents before they can establish rhythm. The statistical differentials heavily favor Johnson: his 6.01 TD15 vs Todorovic's 1.77 creates a 3.4x takedown volume advantage, while his 1.87 SApM vs Todorovic's 4.40 represents superior damage economy that compounds over three rounds. Johnson's 2:40 average fight duration with 100% finish rate demonstrates his ability to end fights early, while Todorovic's 8:01 duration shows his ability to compete in longer fights. The American's ability to control fight location through wrestling while minimizing damage creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially if he can secure takedowns and control position.
Prediction: Johnson by KO/TKO most likely (45% probability) through explosive early pressure and overwhelming Todorovic before he can implement his volume-based gameplan; Todorovic's upset lane requires surviving early pressure and implementing his volume advantage (8% Decision, 14% KO/TKO, 6% Submission) if the fight extends beyond Round 1. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Todorovic can navigate Johnson's explosive early pressure without taking fight-ending damage, allowing his cardio and volume advantages to become decisive factors in later rounds.