Cody Brundage vs Donte Johnson
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2
Saturday, March 7, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Cody Brundage
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Donte Johnson
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Cody Brundage
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Cam Rowston | L | TKO - Strikes (R2, 4:08) |
| 2025-08-09 | Eric McConico | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-14 | Mansur Abdul-Malik | D | Decision - Majority Draw (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-01 | Julian Marquez | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 4:45) |
| 2024-04-13 | Bo Nickal | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:38) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Donte Johnson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Sedriques Dumas | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 1:25) |
| 2025-08-26 | Darion Abbey | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:04) |
| 2025-07-27 | James Ford | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:37) |
| 2025-06-14 | Ryan Parker | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 4:27) |
| 2025-04-19 | Jordan Seufzer | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 1:24) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Cody Brundage Key Advantages
Brundage's wrestling background gives him a significant edge in this matchup. His 1.87 takedowns per 15 minutes with 44% accuracy combined with 68% takedown defense creates a two-way advantage—he can dictate where the fight takes place while denying Johnson's takedown attempts. Against a debuting fighter with limited data, Brundage's UFC grappling experience becomes invaluable. His 0.6 SubPer15 adds a submission threat that forces Johnson to remain cautious on the ground.
Brundage's 55% KO/TKO rate (6 of 11 wins) demonstrates legitimate knockout power that can end fights early. Five of his seven finishes came in Round 1, showing his dangerous early pressure. His ability to hurt opponents early with heavy hands creates a constant threat that forces Johnson into a defensive mindset. Against a debuting fighter with no proven UFC chin, Brundage's power becomes his primary path to victory—a clean shot in the opening exchanges could end the fight before Johnson can settle into his rhythm.
Brundage brings 10 UFC fights of experience against top-level competition including Bo Nickal, while Johnson has zero UFC experience. This octagon familiarity advantage is significant— Brundage understands the pace, pressure, and intensity of UFC competition. He has faced elite wrestlers and strikers, giving him a composure edge in a high-stakes environment. Johnson's 7-0 regional record, while impressive, has not been tested against UFC-caliber opposition. Brundage's ability to remain calm and execute his gameplan under the bright lights creates a significant intangible advantage.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Johnson's undefeated 7-0 record means his true talent level remains unknown. If Johnson possesses elite athleticism and fight IQ beyond what his regional record suggests, he could surprise Brundage with speed and power. Brundage's 49% striking defense and 3.03 strikes absorbed per minute leave him vulnerable to clean shots, and if Johnson can land early, Brundage's chin could be tested given his 4 KO/TKO losses.
Brundage is coming off back-to-back losses (Rowston TKO R2, McConico split decision), raising questions about his momentum and confidence. A two-fight losing streak heading into a bout against a hungry undefeated prospect creates psychological pressure. If Brundage cannot impose his wrestling early, the fight could spiral as Johnson gains confidence with each successful exchange.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Brundage should use his 4-inch height advantage and UFC experience to control the early exchanges. Establishing his jab and measuring distance prevents Johnson from finding his rhythm. His 50% striking accuracy allows him to pick his shots carefully while his wrestling threat keeps Johnson off-balance. If Brundage can dominate the first round, Johnson's confidence as a debutant could fade, making the later rounds increasingly one-sided.
Brundage should look to establish his wrestling early to control where the fight takes place. His 1.87 TD15 with 44% accuracy allows him to mix takedown threats with striking, keeping Johnson guessing. Against a debuting fighter, Brundage should use his octagon experience to control the pace and not rush for a finish. By methodically breaking Johnson down with wrestling pressure and accurate striking, Brundage can win a clear decision while remaining alert for finish opportunities if Johnson fades.
🚀 Donte Johnson Key Advantages
Johnson's undefeated 7-0 record represents the ultimate unknown quantity. While low on data, an unbeaten prospect with a perfect finish rate could possess skills that the model cannot fully capture. Johnson's regional dominance suggests genuine talent, and if that talent translates to the UFC level, he could surprise Brundage. The unknown factor cuts both ways—Brundage cannot game-plan for a fighter he has limited film on, creating potential for surprising exchanges and unorthodox techniques.
Johnson's 74-inch reach gives him a 2-inch advantage over Brundage's 72-inch reach. Despite being 4 inches shorter, his longer arms create opportunities to land clean shots from distance without entering Brundage's wrestling range. If Johnson can utilize his reach to land jabs and straights while circling away from Brundage's pressure, he can accumulate damage while staying out of danger. His 64% striking accuracy from regional fights suggests he lands clean, and if that translates to the UFC, his reach could prove decisive.
At 25, Johnson brings youth and athleticism against the 31-year-old Brundage. Fresh legs and explosive power could be decisive, especially if the fight reaches the later rounds where Brundage's 65 cardio score may fade. Johnson's regional fights suggest he has finishing ability with all 7 wins coming by stoppage, showing he can end fights when he hurts his opponents. If his raw athleticism translates to the UFC level, he could overwhelm a Brundage who may be slowing down after 20 professional fights and 10 UFC bouts.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Brundage's wrestling background and 68% takedown defense could neutralize any grappling Johnson attempts. With 10 UFC fights of experience, Brundage has faced elite wrestlers and grapplers. If Johnson's striking is not UFC-caliber and he cannot keep the fight standing, Brundage's wrestling advantage could control the fight entirely. Johnson's limited data profile means his takedown defense and ground game are untested against elite competition.
Brundage has 10 UFC fights of experience against ranked and elite-level competition, while Johnson is making his UFC debut. The octagon is a different animal than regional shows— crowds, bright lights, elite opponents, and UFC pace can overwhelm debutants. If Johnson freezes or fights tentatively, Brundage's experience advantage becomes insurmountable. The mental game heavily favors the veteran.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Johnson's best path to victory is using his reach advantage to keep the fight at range. His 74-inch reach gives him the ability to land clean shots while staying outside Brundage's wrestling range. Johnson should prioritize quick combinations and lateral movement, avoiding the clinch and cage where Brundage's wrestling becomes dangerous. By maintaining distance and using footwork, Johnson can negate Brundage's grappling advantage and potentially accumulate enough damage for a stoppage or a decision.
Johnson must prioritize takedown defense above all else. Brundage's wrestling is his most dangerous weapon, and if Johnson ends up on his back, his limited grappling data suggests he may struggle to get up. Johnson should train defensive wrestling extensively and focus on keeping the fight standing. If taken down, he needs to get up quickly and reset rather than engaging in grappling exchanges where Brundage has a clear experience and skill advantage.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon provides space for Brundage to utilize his wrestling entries and pressure fighting style. Brundage's 4-inch height advantage (6'0" vs 5'8") gives him reach on the feet while Johnson's 2-inch reach advantage (74" vs 72") creates opportunities for clean shots at range. The large cage space allows Brundage to shoot from distance and work his wrestling game, while Johnson's athletic ability and reach could prove dangerous if he can maintain distance and pick Brundage apart from range. The cage size favors Brundage's ability to control the fight's rhythm and location through grappling.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The model gives Cody Brundage a commanding 77% probability in this matchup. With a 54% chance of a stoppage and Decision as the most likely path, Brundage's primary path is decision via technical striking. Key edges: round 1 finish rate (55% KO rate vs 0% for Johnson), round 1 knockdown rate, and overall damage efficiency. Brundage's 1.87 takedowns per 15 minutes with 68% takedown defense creates a two-way grappling advantage that lets him dictate the fight's location. Johnson's low data profile creates uncertainty, but the model weighs Brundage's proven UFC experience heavily.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: early finish threat, wrestling control, and adaptability. Brundage's R1 finish rate and R1 knockdown rate are his strongest edges, with five of his seven career finishes coming in Round 1. His 44% takedown accuracy combined with 68% takedown defense gives him control over where the fight takes place. Johnson's path to an upset relies on his unbeaten record indicating unknown talent, plus his reach advantage creating striking opportunities. The model sees a 55% chance the fight goes past 2.5 rounds, suggesting decision is the most likely outcome despite the 54% finish probability.
🏁Final Prediction
The model sees Decision as the most likely method (45.8%), with KO/TKO at 33.3% and Submission at 21.0%. Brundage's 55% KO rate vs Johnson's 0% KO rate creates a massive striking differential, while his 27% sub rate vs Johnson's 0% gives him a clear grappling submission edge. R1 is the most dangerous round for a finish (24% probability), with R2 at 15% and R3 at just 6%. Average expected duration is 10.7 minutes with a 55% chance the fight goes over 2.5 rounds. Brundage is favored to win a decision through sustained technical striking and octagon control, though his power gives him a legitimate early finish threat.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
GOOD VALUE
SLIGHT VALUE
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Cody Brundage
Volume advantage if fight extends to later rounds
High-volume striking accumulation
Rear naked choke opportunities in scrambles
💥Outcome Distribution - Donte Johnson
Explosive pressure and early finish threat
Wrestling control and positional dominance
Guillotine choke threat in clinch exchanges
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Donte Johnson
- • First 5 minutes: Highest finish equity via explosive pressure.
- • Wrestling control: Secure takedowns and control position to neutralize volume.
- • Submission threats: Utilize 2.0 SubPer15 to finish or force errors.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Cody Brundage
- • Survive early: Navigate first round without taking fight-ending damage.
- • Volume accumulation: Utilize 4.73 SLpM to rack up strike differentials.
- • Cardio advantage: Force extended exchanges where conditioning becomes decisive.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via wrestling control and early finish threat
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant takedown volume edge (6.01 vs 1.77 TD15)
- • Lower SApM and better damage economy (1.87 vs 4.40)
- • Perfect R1 finish record (6-0) demonstrates early threat
- • Superior defensive efficiency (58% vs 48% StrDef)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Limited UFC sample (1 fight) means cardio untested
- • Todorovic's height advantage creates range control opportunities
- • Volume accumulation if fight extends beyond R1
🏁Executive Summary
Donte Johnson's explosive early pressure and wrestling dominance create a clear path to victory, with his perfect 6-0 R1 finish record demonstrating his ability to overwhelm opponents before they can establish rhythm. The statistical differentials heavily favor Johnson: his 6.01 TD15 vs Todorovic's 1.77 creates a 3.4x takedown volume advantage, while his 1.87 SApM vs Todorovic's 4.40 represents superior damage economy that compounds over three rounds. Johnson's 2:40 average fight duration with 100% finish rate demonstrates his ability to end fights early, while Todorovic's 8:01 duration shows his ability to compete in longer fights. The American's ability to control fight location through wrestling while minimizing damage creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially if he can secure takedowns and control position.
Prediction: Johnson by KO/TKO most likely (45% probability) through explosive early pressure and overwhelming Todorovic before he can implement his volume-based gameplan; Todorovic's upset lane requires surviving early pressure and implementing his volume advantage (8% Decision, 14% KO/TKO, 6% Submission) if the fight extends beyond Round 1. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Todorovic can navigate Johnson's explosive early pressure without taking fight-ending damage, allowing his cardio and volume advantages to become decisive factors in later rounds.