Cody Garbrandt vs Long Xiao
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2
Saturday, March 7, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Cody Garbrandt
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Long Xiao
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Cody Garbrandt
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Raoni Barcelos | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Deiveson Figueiredo | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 4:02) |
| 2023-12-16 | Brian Kelleher | W | TKO - Counter Right (R1, 3:42) |
| 2023-03-04 | Trevin Jones | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-12-11 | Kai Kara-France | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:21) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Long Xiao
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Su Young You | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-23 | Quang Le | W | TKO - Strikes (R3, 1:28) |
| 2024-06-22 | Chang Ho Lee | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-27 | Shuya Kamikubo | W | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-28 | Shohei Nose | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (43.0 vs 57.1) and Grappling Composite (52.3 vs 42.5). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Cody Garbrandt Key Advantages
Garbrandt's knockdown average of 1.03 per fight represents the most dangerous weapon in this matchup. His counter-striking ability—particularly his right hand and overhand—can change the fight in a single exchange. When Xiao commits to combinations or plants his feet, Garbrandt's timing and power create fight-ending opportunities. The Ohio native's 79% KO/TKO finish rate demonstrates his ability to capitalize on these moments. While Xiao's volume can win rounds, Garbrandt's power creates a constant threat that forces Xiao to fight more cautiously, potentially reducing his output advantage.
Garbrandt's 60% striking defense combined with his lower absorption rate (3.64 SApM vs Xiao's 4.27) creates a defensive advantage that allows him to minimize damage while waiting for counter opportunities. His ability to slip punches and avoid clean shots means Xiao's high volume (5.40 SLpM) may not translate to effective damage. Garbrandt's defensive shell and head movement allow him to stay safe in exchanges while setting up his own counters. This defensive efficiency becomes crucial in a three-round fight where avoiding damage early allows him to maintain power throughout.
Garbrandt's 84% takedown defense ensures this fight stays primarily on the feet, where his power advantage is most dangerous. Xiao's limited wrestling offense (0.84 TD15, 25% accuracy) means he's unlikely to successfully take Garbrandt down, forcing the fight into Garbrandt's preferred striking range. This defensive ability prevents Xiao from changing the dynamic of the fight through grappling, keeping the bout in Garbrandt's wheelhouse where his counter-striking and power can decide the outcome.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Xiao maintains his high-volume pace (5.40 SLpM) and keeps the fight at extended range, Garbrandt's low output (2.88 SLpM) could cost him rounds on the scorecards. Xiao's +4.5" reach advantage allows him to land touches while staying outside Garbrandt's power range. The 30-foot cage provides ample space for Xiao to circle, reset, and avoid exchanges. If Garbrandt becomes hesitant to engage or fails to find counter opportunities, Xiao's volume differential could accumulate significant strike totals that judges favor, especially in early rounds before Garbrandt finds his timing.
Garbrandt's shorter average fight duration (10:02 vs Xiao's 14:18) suggests he may struggle to maintain his power and defensive sharpness over three rounds if Xiao forces a high pace. Xiao's superior cardio allows him to maintain volume throughout, while Garbrandt's counter-striking approach requires precise timing that becomes more difficult as fatigue sets in. If Garbrandt doesn't find an early finish, Xiao's pace advantage could become decisive in later rounds where Garbrandt's output may drop while Xiao maintains his.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Garbrandt should focus on cutting angles and maintaining center control while waiting for Xiao to commit to combinations. His 40% striking accuracy is lower than ideal, but his power means he doesn't need high volume—he needs clean connections. By using jab feints and low kicks to draw reactions, Garbrandt can create openings for his right hand and overhand counters. The key is patience: avoid chasing exchanges and let Xiao's volume create opportunities rather than forcing them. Garbrandt's defensive skills allow him to stay safe while waiting for these moments.
When Garbrandt lands clean shots or creates knockdowns, he must capitalize without overextending. His 79% KO/TKO finish rate shows he can finish fights, but he's also been caught when overly aggressive. The strategy should be: hurt Xiao, then finish methodically rather than wildly chasing the finish. Garbrandt's power means he doesn't need perfect setups—even partially landed shots can accumulate damage and create opportunities for fight-ending sequences. The key is maintaining composure after landing big shots.
🚀 Long Xiao Key Advantages
Xiao's 5.40 SLpM output vs Garbrandt's 2.88 represents an 87% volume advantage that creates significant round-winning potential. His ability to maintain high output while landing at 50% accuracy means he's consistently scoring points and controlling the pace. The Chinese striker's volume becomes particularly effective in the 30-foot cage where he can use his +4.5" reach advantage to land touches while staying outside Garbrandt's power range. Xiao's positive striking differential (+1.13 vs Garbrandt's -0.76) is the type of metric that judges consistently reward on scorecards.
Xiao's 70-inch reach advantage over Garbrandt's 65.5" creates significant distance control opportunities. His ability to maintain extended range while landing jabs, low kicks, and body shots allows him to score points without entering Garbrandt's dangerous counter range. The 30-foot cage provides ample space for Xiao to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred striking distance. His 50% striking accuracy combined with reach means he can land clean shots while minimizing exposure to Garbrandt's power counters.
Xiao's 14:18 average fight duration vs Garbrandt's 10:02 demonstrates superior cardiovascular conditioning and ability to maintain pace throughout fights. His high-volume approach (5.40 SLpM) becomes increasingly effective as fights progress, especially in Round 3 where Garbrandt's power may diminish. Xiao's cardio advantage allows him to maintain output and pressure throughout all three rounds, while Garbrandt's shorter average duration suggests he may struggle to sustain his counter-striking precision over extended periods. This pace advantage compounds over three rounds.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Garbrandt's knockdown power (KD Avg 1.03) creates constant danger when Xiao commits to combinations or plants his feet. Xiao's lower striking defense (51% vs Garbrandt's 60%) and higher absorption rate (4.27 SApM) mean he's more vulnerable to clean counters. If Xiao becomes overly aggressive or fails to maintain distance, Garbrandt's counter-striking ability can end the fight in a single exchange. Xiao's tendency to engage in extended combinations creates windows where Garbrandt's timing and power can capitalize, especially if Xiao overextends or fails to exit cleanly after exchanges.
Xiao's 51% striking defense combined with his high absorption rate (4.27 SApM) means he absorbs significant damage even when winning rounds. Against a power puncher like Garbrandt, this creates cumulative damage that can accumulate over three rounds. While Xiao's volume can win scorecards, his defensive vulnerabilities mean he's taking clean shots that can change the fight's trajectory. Garbrandt's 40% accuracy may be lower than ideal, but his power means even partially landed shots can create fight-altering moments.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Xiao's optimal strategy involves maintaining extended range while consistently landing volume. His jab and low kicks should target Garbrandt's base and mobility, preventing the Ohio native from setting up counters. Xiao's +4.5" reach advantage allows him to land touches while staying outside Garbrandt's power range. The key is maintaining constant activity (5.40 SLpM) without overcommitting to exchanges that expose him to counters. By using lateral movement and resetting after combinations, Xiao can accumulate points while minimizing risk.
Xiao's superior cardio (14:18 avg duration vs 10:02) allows him to maintain high volume throughout all three rounds. His strategy should focus on consistent output rather than bursts, gradually accumulating strike differentials that judges favor. As the fight progresses, Xiao's pace advantage becomes more pronounced—Garbrandt's power may diminish while Xiao maintains his 5.40 SLpM output. By Round 3, Xiao's cardio edge allows him to push the pace while Garbrandt may struggle to maintain counter-striking precision, creating opportunities to secure rounds and potentially finish via accumulation.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon initially favors Xiao's range weapons and movement, allowing him to utilize his +4.5" reach advantage to maintain distance and control the pace. Xiao's ability to circle, reset, and land volume from extended range creates significant advantages in the early rounds when he can establish his rhythm without entering Garbrandt's dangerous counter range. However, Garbrandt's counter-striking ability and power create constant threats that force Xiao to fight more cautiously than he might prefer. The large cage space allows Xiao to avoid prolonged exchanges, but Garbrandt's ability to cut off angles and create counter opportunities means Xiao cannot afford to become complacent with his distance control. Over three rounds, Xiao's volume and cardio advantages become increasingly decisive if he can maintain discipline and avoid Garbrandt's power shots.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: volume control vs power windows. Xiao's 5.40 SLpM vs Garbrandt's 2.88 represents an 87% volume differential that creates significant round-winning potential when fights remain at extended range. While Garbrandt's power (KD Avg 1.03) creates fight-ending threats, Xiao's volume advantage combined with his +1.13 striking differential means he can accumulate rounds on scorecards. However, Garbrandt's superior striking defense (60% vs 51%) and lower absorption rate (3.64 SApM vs 4.27) mean he absorbs less damage even when losing rounds. The key dynamic is whether Xiao's volume can overcome Garbrandt's power moments, or if Garbrandt can find enough counter opportunities to change the fight's trajectory.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: distance control vs counter opportunities, volume accumulation vs power moments, and cardio sustainability over three rounds. Xiao's +4.5" reach advantage allows him to maintain extended range, but Garbrandt's counter-striking ability means Xiao cannot become complacent with distance. Xiao's high volume (5.40 SLpM) creates round-winning potential, but Garbrandt's power (KD Avg 1.03) means even brief lapses in Xiao's defense can end the fight. As the fight progresses, Xiao's superior cardio (14:18 avg duration vs 10:02) becomes increasingly decisive—he can maintain his pace throughout while Garbrandt's power and precision may diminish. The key is whether Xiao can avoid Garbrandt's counter windows while maintaining his volume advantage.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Long Xiao by Decision (48% probability), achieved through consistent volume control, distance management, and superior cardio over three rounds. Xiao's high output (5.40 SLpM) combined with his reach advantage allows him to accumulate rounds while staying outside Garbrandt's dangerous counter range. Garbrandt's KO/TKO path (25%) becomes viable if he can capitalize on Xiao's defensive vulnerabilities and find counter opportunities, particularly when Xiao commits to combinations or fails to maintain distance. Garbrandt's decision path (11%) requires disciplined counter-striking and avoiding volume deficits, but his low output (2.88 SLpM) makes this difficult unless he can consistently land damaging shots that sway judges.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 48% | Fair: +110
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Fair: +300
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 65% | Fair: -185
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights power volatility – Underprices volume control and round accumulation.
- • Undervalues cardio advantage – Xiao's pace sustainability becomes decisive over three rounds.
- • Big-cage bias – Space favors Xiao's reach and movement, extending his volume advantage.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Cody Garbrandt
Counter-striking and knockdown power
Requires disciplined counter-striking
Low historical submission profile
💥Outcome Distribution - Long Xiao
Primary path via volume control and round-winning pace
Accumulation and doctor stoppage
Occasional submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Cody Garbrandt
- • Counter windows: When Xiao commits to combinations or plants feet, Garbrandt's power can end fights.
- • Early rounds: Garbrandt's power is freshest when Xiao may be more aggressive.
- • Defensive lapses: Xiao's 51% defense creates opportunities for clean counters.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Long Xiao
- • Volume accumulation: Consistent output builds round-winning differentials.
- • Cardio advantage: Maintains pace while Garbrandt's power may diminish.
- • Distance control: Reach advantage allows scoring without entering danger zone.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Good structural edge but power/KD gap creates volatility
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant volume advantage (5.40 vs 2.88 SLpM)
- • Reach advantage (+4.5") and better accuracy (50% vs 40%)
- • Superior cardio and pace sustainability
- • Positive striking differential (+1.13 vs -0.76)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Garbrandt's knockdown power (KD Avg 1.03 vs 0.21)
- • Counter-striking threat in exchanges
- • Lower striking defense (51% vs 60%)
🏁Executive Summary
Long Xiao's systematic approach to volume control should steadily accumulate rounds through consistent output and distance management, while Cody Garbrandt's best equity centers on counter-striking windows and power moments that can end fights instantly. The statistical differentials favor Xiao: his 5.40 SLpM vs Garbrandt's 2.88 creates an 87% volume advantage, while his +1.13 striking differential vs Garbrandt's -0.76 represents superior round-winning potential. Xiao's 14:18 average fight duration demonstrates exceptional cardio management, while Garbrandt's 10:02 duration suggests struggles maintaining power and precision over extended periods. However, Garbrandt's knockdown power (KD Avg 1.03 vs Xiao's 0.21) creates constant fight-ending threats that can overcome volume deficits if he finds clean counter opportunities.
Prediction: Xiao Long by Decision most likely (48% probability) through consistent volume control and distance management over three rounds; Garbrandt's upset lane is KO/TKO (25%) via counter-striking when Xiao commits to combinations or fails to maintain distance. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Xiao can maintain discipline and avoid Garbrandt's power windows while accumulating rounds, or if Garbrandt can find enough counter opportunities to change the fight's trajectory.