Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2
Saturday, March 7, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Cody Durden
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Cody Durden
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Allan Nascimento | L | Submission - Anaconda Choke (R2, 3:13) |
| 2025-06-14 | Jose Ochoa | L | TKO - Strikes (R2, 0:11) |
| 2024-12-07 | Joshua Van | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-07 | Matt Schnell | W | Submission - Ninja Choke (R2, 0:29) |
| 2024-07-20 | Bruno Silva | L | TKO - Strikes (R2, 2:58) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-22 | Terrance Saeteurn | W | Submission - Choke (R1, 2:53) |
| 2024-11-23 | Carlos Hernandez | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-27 | Peter Danesoe | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 1:02) |
| 2023-05-27 | Topnoi Kiwram | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-25 | Masayuki Watanabe | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:07) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (60.0 vs 58.0) and Grappling Composite (75.0 vs 70.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Cody Durden Key Advantages
4.13 takedowns per 15min vs 2.42 represents a significant differential that fundamentally shifts fight control. Durden's chain-wrestling sequences—level changes, single-leg entries, mat returns, and positional control—create minute-winning cycles that accumulate control time. His 48% takedown accuracy against Tumendemberel's 52% defense suggests first-layer resistance, but Durden's re-shot ability and fence pressure typically break through. The American's ability to chain multiple attempts and maintain pressure while Tumendemberel defends creates fatigue differentials that compound over three rounds.
Durden's 73% takedown defense vs Tumendemberel's 52% creates a significant advantage in preventing opponent takedowns. While Tumendemberel's 2.42 SubPer15 represents a high submission threat, Durden's superior takedown defense means he can prevent being taken down and controlled. This defensive efficiency is crucial in a three-round fight where control time matters. Durden's ability to stuff takedowns while implementing his own wrestling creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially when combined with his higher takedown volume.
Durden's 48% takedown accuracy vs Tumendemberel's 31% represents a significant advantage in converting takedown attempts. Combined with his higher takedown volume (4.13 vs 2.42 TD15), Durden can consistently secure takedowns and establish control. His wrestling-heavy approach creates sustainable pressure that escalates as the fight progresses. The American's ability to maintain 3.44 SLpM while executing takedown chains shows efficient energy management—he controls the pace through grappling rather than relying solely on striking exchanges. This accuracy advantage becomes decisive when combined with his superior takedown defense.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Tumendemberel's 2.42 SubPer15 represents a significant submission threat that could end the fight quickly if Durden enters takedowns carelessly. The Mongolian's 71-inch reach allows him to maintain distance while threatening chokes and front-headlock submissions as Durden commits to shots. Historical data shows Tumendemberel's success with submissions in scrambles—his ability to transition to chokes creates fight-ending opportunities. Durden's predictable entry patterns could be exploited if Tumendemberel maintains composure and capitalizes on submission opportunities.
Durden's 4.35 SApM is significantly higher than Tumendemberel's 3.29 SApM, meaning he absorbs more damage per minute. If the fight remains standing and Durden fails to establish consistent takedown pressure, Tumendemberel's reach advantage and lower absorption rate could create problems. The 30-foot cage provides ample space for Tumendemberel to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred striking distance. His 39% accuracy combined with his 4-inch reach advantage can create strike differentials that sway judges, particularly if Durden becomes hesitant to shoot after early submission scares.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Durden should utilize jab feints and low kicks to force Tumendemberel into a high guard, creating openings for level changes. His 45% striking accuracy suggests he can land these setup strikes while maintaining defensive positioning. The American's ability to mix striking entries with takedown attempts keeps Tumendemberel guessing and prevents him from settling into rhythm. By varying his approach—sometimes feinting shots, sometimes committing—Durden can exploit Tumendemberel's tendency to overreact to takedown threats, creating opportunities for clean entries and subsequent control sequences.
Once Durden secures takedowns, his priority should be establishing dominant positions and accumulating control time. His wrestling background emphasizes mat returns, wrist control, and short hammerfists while being cautious of submission attempts. This approach maximizes scoring while minimizing risk—Durden can bank minutes through rides and positional control without exposing himself to Tumendemberel's dangerous submission game. The American's 73% takedown defense suggests he can maintain top position once established, making this strategy both effective and sustainable over three rounds.
🚀 Nyamjargal Tumendemberel Key Advantages
Tumendemberel's 71-inch reach advantage (vs Durden's 67") creates significant striking opportunities at range. His arsenal includes long strikes and intercept techniques that can deter takedown attempts while scoring points. The Mongolian's ability to maintain distance and vary his attack angles makes him difficult to read. In the 30-foot cage, Tumendemberel can maintain this preferred distance longer, forcing Durden to cover more ground and commit to longer entries that expose him to counters and submission opportunities.
Tumendemberel's 2.42 SubPer15 represents one of the highest submission rates in the flyweight division, creating significant finishing threats in scrambles and ground exchanges. His ability to transition to chokes and front-headlock submissions makes him dangerous even when taken down. The Mongolian's submission threat becomes particularly dangerous when Durden enters takedowns carelessly or fails to maintain proper head position. His 88.9% finish rate means he capitalizes on opportunities consistently, and his ability to find submissions in transitions can end fights quickly.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Durden's chain-wrestling sequences create a nightmare scenario for Tumendemberel—once the American secures takedowns, his ability to chain shots, establish rides, and execute mat returns prevents Tumendemberel from regaining his feet or establishing striking rhythm. The Mongolian's 52% takedown defense suggests he struggles to stuff attempts, and Durden's re-shot ability and persistence typically break through. Once on the ground, Tumendemberel's striking output drops to near zero while Durden accumulates control time and scoring opportunities. This scenario becomes increasingly likely as the fight progresses.
Tumendemberel's 52% takedown defense is significantly lower than Durden's 73%, creating a major vulnerability against Durden's high takedown volume (4.13 TD15). His inability to consistently stuff takedowns means he'll spend significant time defending shots and potentially on his back. The Mongolian's takedown defense weakness becomes particularly problematic when combined with Durden's superior takedown accuracy (48% vs 31%). Tumendemberel's tendency to get taken down repeatedly, combined with his lower takedown volume, creates a dangerous combination where he becomes increasingly vulnerable to control time accumulation as the fight progresses.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Tumendemberel's optimal strategy involves maintaining range control while threatening submissions in scrambles. His reach advantage should be used to keep Durden at distance and make takedown entries more difficult. The Mongolian's ability to transition to chokes when Durden commits to shots creates fight-ending opportunities. When Durden does commit to takedowns, Tumendemberel should threaten front-headlock submissions and chokes to deter entries and create finishing opportunities. The key is maintaining distance while staying active enough to score points and prevent Durden from settling into rhythm or establishing consistent pressure.
Tumendemberel's best chance for victory lies in capitalizing on early submission opportunities when Durden enters takedowns carelessly. The Mongolian should look to capitalize on his submission threat by threatening chokes and front-headlock submissions as Durden commits to shots. His 2.42 SubPer15 becomes most dangerous when he can catch Durden in transitions or scrambles. By establishing early submission threats and potentially finishing the fight quickly, Tumendemberel can prevent Durden from establishing his wrestling rhythm and accumulating control time.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Tumendemberel's range weapons and movement, but gradually shifting toward Durden's pressure as the fight progresses. Tumendemberel's 71-inch reach gives him significant advantages in the early rounds when he can maintain distance and utilize his striking effectively. However, Durden's relentless pressure and chain-wrestling sequences gradually compress the available space, forcing Tumendemberel into increasingly uncomfortable positions. The American's ability to cut off angles and force exchanges at the fence transforms the cage from Tumendemberel's ally into Durden's weapon, creating a progressive advantage that compounds over three rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: wrestling activity and submission threat. Durden's 4.13 TD15 vs Tumendemberel's 2.42 represents a significant differential that fundamentally alters fight control and scoring dynamics. While Tumendemberel's submission threat (2.42 SubPer15) creates finishing opportunities, Durden's superior takedown defense (73% vs 52%) and higher takedown accuracy (48% vs 31%) give him control advantages. The American's wrestling threat combined with his takedown volume forces Tumendemberel into uncomfortable exchanges where his submission game becomes less effective if he can't secure positions. These differentials create a scoring framework where Durden's control time and takedown activity consistently outweigh Tumendemberel's striking output in judges' eyes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: first-layer takedown defense vs chain wrestling, submission threats vs takedown control, and early finishing opportunities vs control time accumulation. Tumendemberel's 52% takedown defense suggests he struggles to stuff initial attempts, and Durden's persistence and re-shot ability typically break through over time. The Mongolian's submission weapons (chokes, front-headlock submissions) represent his most dangerous tools against Durden's entries, but the American's ability to vary his approach and maintain proper head position makes these counters less predictable. As the fight progresses, Durden's superior takedown volume and control become increasingly decisive, especially when combined with his wrestling pressure that forces Tumendemberel to expend energy defending takedowns and fighting off his back.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Cody Durden by Decision (32% probability), achieved through consistent takedown pressure, control time accumulation, and superior wrestling activity over three rounds. Durden's Submission path (24%) becomes viable if his control positions create choke opportunities, particularly when Tumendemberel tires from defending takedowns. Durden's KO/TKO path (6%) is less likely but possible if his ground-and-pound accumulates damage. Tumendemberel's upset lane centers on early Submission (17%) via chokes or front-headlock submissions as Durden commits to takedown attempts. The Mongolian's KO/TKO path (12%) requires landing power shots, and his decision path (9%) requires maintaining extended range control throughout three rounds—a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely as Durden's pressure escalates and the cage space compresses.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 32% | Fair: +210
GOOD VALUE
Model: 17% | Fair: +490
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 48% | Fair: +110
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Cody Durden
Primary path via takedown control and rounds
Control positions create choke opportunities
Ground-and-pound accumulation possible
💥Outcome Distribution - Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Scramble chokes and front-headlock threats
Power shots and intercept strikes
Requires extended range control throughout
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
- • First 3–5 minutes: Highest submission equity in scrambles.
- • Range control: Use reach to stall takedown entries.
- • Submission threats: Capitalize on front-headlock opportunities.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Cody Durden
- • Chain shots: Re-mats and rides bank control and sap pace.
- • Head position: Maintain proper position to avoid submissions.
- • Control time: Accumulate minutes for decision scoring.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to wrestling edge vs submission threat
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant takedown volume edge (4.13 vs 2.42 TD15)
- • Superior takedown defense (73% vs 52%)
- • Better takedown accuracy (48% vs 31%)
- • Wrestling control creates scoring opportunities
⚠️Risk Factors
- • High submission threat (2.42 SubPer15)
- • Higher strike absorption rate (4.35 SApM)
- • Recent losses by TKO and submission
🏁Executive Summary
Cody Durden's systematic approach to fight control should steadily compress the 30-foot octagon space and bank safe minutes through chain-wrestling sequences, while Nyamjargal Tumendemberel's best equity centers on early submission threats and range weapons before the American's pressure takes hold. The statistical differentials heavily favor Durden: his 4.13 TD15 vs Tumendemberel's 2.42 creates a significant takedown volume advantage, while his 73% TDDef vs Tumendemberel's 52% represents superior takedown defense. Durden's 48% TDAcc vs Tumendemberel's 31% demonstrates better takedown conversion. However, Tumendemberel's 2.42 SubPer15 represents a significant submission threat that could end the fight quickly if Durden enters takedowns carelessly. The American's ability to accumulate control time while avoiding submissions creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward over three rounds.
Prediction: Durden by Decision most likely (32% probability) through consistent takedown pressure and control time accumulation; Tumendemberel's upset lane is early Submission (17%) via chokes or front-headlock submissions as Durden commits to shots. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Tumendemberel can capitalize on his early submission opportunities before Durden's wrestling pressure and superior takedown control become decisive factors.