Ty Miller vs Adam Fugitt
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Saturday, January 24, 2026 • T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Ty Miller
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Adam Fugitt
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ty Miller
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-12 | Jimmy Drago | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-04-11 | Martin Camilo | NC | No Contest - Accidental Eye Poke (R1, 3:30) |
| 2024-06-22 | Ryan Charlebois | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:45) |
| 2024-03-30 | Miguel Tovar | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-20 | Deane Williams | W | KO/TKO (R3, 1:47) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Adam Fugitt
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Islam Dulatov | L | TKO - Strikes (R1, 4:06) |
| 2024-06-15 | Josh Quinlan | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-10 | Mike Malott | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 1:06) |
| 2023-02-04 | Yusaku Kinoshita | W | TKO - Elbows (R1, 4:36) |
| 2022-07-30 | Michael Morales | L | TKO - Punches (R3, 1:09) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (67.5 vs 54.1) and Grappling Composite (8.3 vs 31.6). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Ty Miller Key Advantages
Miller's 70% striking defense is massive compared to Fugitt's 51%—that's not a small lean, but a decisive gap. In a 3-round fight, consistently making your opponent miss is how you win minutes. Miller's defense (70% vs 51%) + damage intake advantage (3.80 vs 4.54 SApM) creates the kind of profile difference that repeatedly wins decisions, especially in a big cage where he can reset and force Fugitt to restart every exchange.
Miller pushes a higher minute-by-minute pace (5.60 SLpM vs 4.59) while absorbing less damage. He's a tall, long orthodox mover built to win by stacking clean minutes—not by hunting one shot. The 30-foot cage strongly benefits Miller: more runway to stick-and-move, reset after southpaw entries, and force Fugitt to cover distance repeatedly.
Miller's whole career trend screams "best work late"—5 of his 6 wins are Round 3 outcomes (either decision or late finish). His avg fight time is 15:00, while Fugitt's UFC fights tend to end earlier (8:11 avg). At 37 years old, Fugitt absorbing >4.5 sig strikes/min doesn't typically "get fresher" in Round 3. Miller can live in a 3-round pace; the cage size amplifies his ability to choose when exchanges happen.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Miller's unknown grappling layer in UFC context (0.00 TD15) is a vulnerability. If Fugitt can force fence grappling and make this ugly, Miller's clean-range edge shrinks fast. Fugitt's one "swing factor" is grappling chaos—if he gets sustained clinch/top time early, the whole texture changes. Low takedown accuracy (25%) is concerning, but if he can ground Miller consistently, it's a problem.
Miller's low striking accuracy (34%) can mean wasted volume if Fugitt times counters and makes him pay for "busy but not damaging" sequences. His defensive numbers can look inflated until proven against UFC-level reads and southpaw looks. This is Miller's UFC debut—the step-up from regional scene to Octagon is real, and Fugitt has 5 UFC fights of experience.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Miller should use the big cage to his advantage—jab, touch, exit, and force Fugitt to restart every exchange. His elite 70% defense means he can reset after southpaw entries without accumulating damage. The more exchanges, the more Miller's defense gap shows up. Force Fugitt to cover distance repeatedly and make him work for every moment of engagement.
Miller wins by stacking clean minutes—not by hunting knockouts. His 5.60 SLpM + high defense creates sustainable volume that wins rounds. Don't get drawn into firefights where Fugitt's experience and chaos comfort level become factors. Stay long, stay busy, and let the pace/defense advantages compound over 15 minutes.
🚀 Adam Fugitt Key Advantages
Fugitt is the only one who shows real takedown attempt rate in the UFC Stats dataset (1.83 TD/15 vs Miller's 0.00). Southpaw + wrestling attempts means he can change the picture—jab-to-level-change, cage clinch, dirty boxing, and make Miller fight in "non-pretty" spaces. If Fugitt makes this a scrappy 50/50 fight, his experience and comfort in chaos is a real lever.
Fugitt throws cleaner (46% accuracy vs Miller's 34%). He's far more hittable himself (4.54 SApM with only 51% defense), but when he lands, he lands clean. If he can time counters during Miller's "busy but not damaging" sequences, he could make Miller pay for wasted volume. Fugitt's southpaw looks and UFC experience give him reads Miller hasn't faced.
Fugitt's 80% finish rate shows he's built for volatility. His UFC fights average 8:11—shorter duration means he's used to high-stakes moments happening fast. He's comfortable in firefights and momentum swings. If he can drag Miller into chaos early, his "southpaw opportunist" profile could catch Miller before the debutant settles in.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Miller's 70% striking defense with 3.80 SApM creates a defensive wall that's hard to break through. Fugitt's hittable profile (51% StrDef, 4.54 SApM) means he's absorbing more damage while Miller stays clean. The StrDef gap (70% vs 51%) + damage intake gap compounds over 15 minutes—Fugitt's accuracy edge won't matter if he can't consistently land clean shots on Miller's moving target.
At 37 years old, Fugitt's average UFC fight time is 8:11—shorter duration typically means "finish or get finished" volatility. But against Miller's cardio profile (15:00 avg, R3 dominance pattern), Fugitt faces a younger (25), fresher fighter who gets better late. Absorbing 4.54 SApM at 37 doesn't trend positively into Round 3. The age + durability risk is real.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Fugitt should use his southpaw + wrestling attempts to change the texture early. Jab-to-level-change, cage clinch, dirty boxing—make Miller fight in spaces where his clean striking edge disappears. If Fugitt can force sustained fence grappling or ground sequences, Miller's 0.00 TD15 becomes a real unknown. Low TD accuracy (25%) is a concern, but volume attempts + pressure could break through Miller's 50% TDD.
Fugitt's 80% finish rate + 8:11 avg fight time means he's built for volatility. His best path is dragging Miller into a firefight early—before Miller settles into his pace/defense rhythm, and before Round 3 when Miller historically dominates. Time counters during Miller's high-volume sequences, exploit the UFC debut nerves, and capitalize on southpaw looks Miller hasn't seen. Front-load damage and chaos.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a massive advantage for Miller's stick-and-move style. More runway to reset after southpaw entries, more space to force Fugitt to cover distance repeatedly, and more time to "solve" the fight without getting trapped. In a small cage, Fugitt's pressure/grappling moments could spike—here, Miller gets to choose when and where exchanges happen. Fugitt needs to compress space and force ugly moments; Miller wants to maintain perimeter control and keep this at his preferred pace. The big cage benefits the fighter with elite defense (70% StrDef) and high output (5.60 SLpM) who wants to bank clean minutes over 15 minutes.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: defensive efficiency and pace sustainability. Miller's 70% StrDef vs Fugitt's 51% represents a massive defensive gap that compounds over 15 minutes. Miller's combo of higher SLpM (5.60 vs 4.59) + far better defense (70% vs 51%) + lower damage intake (3.80 vs 4.54 SApM) outweighs Fugitt's accuracy edge (46% vs 34%). The 30-foot cage amplifies Miller's ability to control engagement distance—he gets more time to "solve" the fight by resetting after exchanges. Fugitt's grappling composite (31.6) is higher than Miller's (8.3), but in a 3-round fight, Miller's cardio/pace profile (66.0 cardio score vs 47.4) is the bigger fight-winning tool.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: Can Fugitt force fence grappling chaos and keep Miller in ugly spaces? Miller's 0.00 TD15 is an unknown grappling layer—if Fugitt can make this scrappy, Miller's clean-range edge shrinks fast. Does Miller's 70% StrDef translate against a southpaw with UFC experience? Fugitt's 46% accuracy + southpaw looks could expose Miller's step-up risk. Round 3 trends: Miller's whole career says "best work late" (5 of 6 wins in R3), while Fugitt at 37 years old absorbing 4.54 SApM doesn't trend positively into the final round. The defensive gap (StrDef 70% vs 51%) + damage intake (3.80 vs 4.54 SApM) is the single most decisive stat split in the matchup.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Ty Miller by Decision (44% probability), achieved through pace control, elite defense, and minute-stacking over 3 rounds. Miller's KO/TKO path (21%) becomes viable if his volume accumulates damage and Fugitt's defense (51% StrDef) breaks down late. Fugitt's upset lane centers on early chaos via grappling (9% submission path) or catching Miller during high-volume sequences (11% KO/TKO). His decision path (14%) requires sustained grappling control or timing counters consistently—less likely against Miller's defensive shell and big-cage advantages.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
GOOD VALUE
SLIGHT VALUE
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ty Miller
Primary path via fence control and rides
Attritional GNP and accumulative pressure
Back-takes off rides create RNC chances
💥Outcome Distribution - Adam Fugitt
Best lane via intercepts and counters
Requires extended range control in big cage
Low historical submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Adam Fugitt
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest chaos equity before Miller settles.
- • Force grappling: Jab-to-level-change, cage clinch, make it ugly.
- • Time counters: Exploit Miller's volume with southpaw reads.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Ty Miller
- • Stick and move: Use big cage to reset and control pace.
- • Defense edge: 70% StrDef compounds minute-winning.
- • Round 3: Career trend of late dominance pays off.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via wrestling cycles and safer damage profile
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant takedown volume edge (3.25 vs 0.73 TD15)
- • Lower SApM and better damage economy
- • Ride control creates safe scoring minutes
- • Proven cardio over three rounds; scalable to five
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Intercept knees/uppercuts vs level changes
- • Big cage extends early range time
- • Hooker's high-volume surges in pockets
🏁Executive Summary
Ty Miller's elite defensive profile and pace control should steadily bank clean minutes over 15 minutes in the large cage, while Adam Fugitt's best equity centers on forcing grappling chaos early and catching Miller before he settles into rhythm. The statistical differentials heavily favor Miller: his 70% StrDef vs Fugitt's 51% creates a massive defensive gap that compounds over three rounds, while his 3.80 SApM vs Fugitt's 4.54 represents superior damage economy. Miller's 15:00 average fight duration with 5 of 6 wins in Round 3 demonstrates exceptional cardio management and late-round dominance, while Fugitt's 8:11 UFC duration suggests finish-or-get-finished volatility. Miller's ability to minimize damage while maximizing output creates a minute-winning consistency that judges consistently reward, especially when combined with the big cage's runway for resetting after exchanges.
Prediction: Miller by Decision most likely (44% probability) through pace control, elite defense, and minute-stacking; Fugitt's upset lane is early chaos via grappling (9% submission) or catching Miller during high-volume sequences (11% KO/TKO). The fight's outcome hinges on whether Fugitt can force sustained fence grappling and exploit Miller's unknown grappling layer before Miller's defensive shell and cardio advantages become decisive over 15 minutes.