Ricky Turcios vs Cameron Smotherman
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC 324
Saturday, January 24, 2026 • T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Ricky Turcios
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Cameron Smotherman
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ricky Turcios
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Benardo Sopaj | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-08 | Raul Rosas Jr. | L | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 2:22) |
| 2022-11-19 | Kevin Natividad | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-09 | Aiemann Zahabi | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-08-28 | Brady Hiestand | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Cameron Smotherman
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Ricky Simón | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-05-03 | Serhiy Sidey | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-19 | Jake Hadley | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-21 | Ryan Mondala | W | Submission - Anaconda Choke (R3, 1:16) |
| 2024-04-21 | Ryan Kuse | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (58.0 vs 62.0) and Grappling Composite (48.0 vs 52.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Ricky Turcios Key Advantages
Turcios holds a 71" vs 69" reach advantage, giving him slightly more range in pocket exchanges. Combined with his high-volume approach (4.73 SLpM), this allows him to initiate exchanges from just outside Smotherman's optimal range. While not a massive differential, the extra two inches enables Turcios to land lead jabs and teeps that keep Smotherman slightly off-balance and disrupts his boxing rhythm.
Turcios's 4.73 SLpM output combined with his scrambling ability creates chaotic exchanges that disrupt technical strikers. His freestyle approach—mixing level changes, clinch entries, and scrambles—prevents Smotherman from settling into clean boxing combinations. While less efficient strike-for-strike, Turcios's volume and pace can overwhelm opponents who prefer measured exchanges. His 0.91 TD per 15 minutes adds another layer of unpredictability that forces Smotherman to split defensive focus.
Turcios's 13:44 average fight duration with 10 of 13 career wins coming in Round 3 demonstrates exceptional late-fight endurance. His pace-heavy style becomes particularly effective in the final frame when opponents fatigue. The veteran's ability to maintain 4.73 SLpM output while mixing takedown attempts and scrambles suggests superior conditioning that could prove decisive in tight rounds. His willingness to fight ugly and grind through adversity often pays dividends in championship rounds.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Smotherman maintains distance and forces clean boxing exchanges, Turcios's defensive deficiencies (52% StrDef vs 59%) become exploitable. The cleaner striker typically wins judges' eyes in technical bantamweight contests. Smotherman's better striking defense combined with superior shot selection means Turcios absorbs more damage per exchange, creating visible optics disadvantages that could sway close rounds.
Turcios's poor 20% takedown accuracy against Smotherman's solid 63% TD defense creates a nightmare scenario where Ricky expends energy on failed entries. Each stuffed attempt leaves Turcios vulnerable to counter strikes and burns cardio without producing scoring opportunities. If Cameron consistently denies wrestling entries, Turcios loses his chaos-creation tool and must win through pure striking—his weakest pathway.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Turcios should embrace his scrambler identity by constantly breaking rhythm with feints, level changes, and clinch entries. The goal isn't clean takedowns but disrupting Smotherman's technical striking flow. By forcing messy exchanges and cage wrestling sequences, Ricky minimizes the striking differential while maximizing activity scoring. Even failed takedown attempts that lead to scrambles or brief control time bank points and fatigue the opponent.
Given his exceptional Round 3 record (10 wins) and superior average fight duration (13:44 vs 11:30), Turcios should pace himself strategically for a final-frame takeover. Staying competitive through two rounds while maintaining energy reserves allows him to pour on volume when Smotherman begins to fade. The veteran's experience grinding through adversity makes him dangerous in close fights that reach the final minutes.
🚀 Cameron Smotherman Key Advantages
Smotherman's 59% striking defense versus Turcios's 52% creates a significant damage economy advantage. Combined with lower strikes absorbed per minute (3.52 vs 3.72), Cameron emerges cleaner from exchanges while landing similar or better shots. His polished boxing fundamentals—head movement, guard discipline, footwork—allow him to control distance and minimize unnecessary damage. This defensive efficiency becomes crucial in close rounds where judges reward clean striking over volume.
With 6 KO/TKOs in 12 career wins (50% of victories), Smotherman carries legitimate finishing power—nearly double Turcios's 31% finish rate. His body-punch oriented attack (38% of strikes target the torso) accumulates damage that can break opponents late. The younger fighter's ability to find knockout opportunities even in close exchanges gives him multiple pathways to victory beyond decision scoring. Against Turcios's mediocre defense, Cameron's power becomes a legitimate X-factor.
Smotherman's 63% takedown defense against Turcios's pitiful 20% accuracy creates a massive stylistic advantage. Even when Ricky attempts his scrambling entries, Cameron's base and sprawl should consistently deny scoring opportunities. This forces the fight to remain standing where Smotherman holds clear technical superiority. The ability to dictate fight location—keeping exchanges at boxing range—allows Cameron to maximize his strengths while negating Turcios's chaos-creation tactics.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Turcios successfully creates ugly, scramble-heavy exchanges with constant clinch battles and cage wrestling, Smotherman's technical striking advantages diminish. Judges often reward activity and forward pressure in messy fights, potentially favoring Ricky's volume over Cameron's efficiency. The lack of clean exchanges prevents Smotherman from showcasing his superior boxing fundamentals and finishing power.
Bantamweight judging sometimes favors activity over efficiency. If Cameron counters conservatively while Turcios throws high-volume combinations (even if less effective), judges may reward Ricky's output. The psychological impact of constant forward pressure can sway perceptions, especially in rounds without clear knockdowns or control. Smotherman must avoid passive counter-punching that surrenders visual momentum.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Smotherman should utilize his superior boxing fundamentals to maintain optimal striking range, denying Turcios's clinch and scramble entries. The 30-foot cage provides ample space to circle, reset, and pick clean shots. By establishing jab control and threatening body shots, Cameron forces Ricky into reactive mode rather than offensive chaos. The key is staying active enough to score while avoiding prolonged exchanges that favor volume over precision.
Given Turcios's tendency to push high pace through three rounds, targeting body shots early accumulates dividends late. Smotherman's body-punch heavy style (38% torso targeting) can sap Ricky's cardio and slow his volume as the fight progresses. By methodically breaking down the body while using takedown defense to keep exchanges standing, Cameron sets up late-round finishing opportunities or clear decision advantages when Turcios fades.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon at T-Mobile Arena provides ample space for both fighters to implement their preferred strategies. For Smotherman, the large cage allows superior footwork and distance management, enabling him to circle away from Turcios's pressure while maintaining boxing range. For Turcios, the extra space means more room to create scrambles and force chaotic exchanges, though he must work harder to cut off angles and trap Cameron against the fence.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals Smotherman holding clear advantages in defensive metrics (59% StrDef vs 52%, 63% TDD vs 44%) while maintaining comparable offensive output. His 58% finish rate versus Turcios's 31% demonstrates superior ability to convert advantages into stoppages. However, Turcios's volume edge (4.73 vs 4.07 SLpM) and scrambling ability create unpredictability that can disrupt technical fighters. The key battleground becomes whether Smotherman can maintain clean boxing exchanges or if Turcios successfully forces ugly scrambles that negate technical advantages.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical exchanges determine the outcome: Smotherman's takedown defense versus Turcios's scrambling entries, clean boxing at range versus chaotic pocket exchanges, and late-round cardio differentials. Turcios's 13:44 average duration and 77% of wins in Round 3 suggests superior pacing ability, while Smotherman's 11:30 average indicates potential late fatigue. However, Cameron's superior striking defense should minimize accumulated damage that typically causes late fades. The fight likely hinges on whether Smotherman can establish consistent distance control or if Turcios turns it into a grinding war.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Cameron Smotherman by Decision (36% probability), achieved through superior striking defense, better shot selection, and effective takedown defense that keeps exchanges standing. Smotherman's KO/TKO path (20%) becomes viable through body work accumulation or clean counter opportunities against Turcios's aggressive entries. Turcios's best chance remains Decision victory (30%) via late-round surges and volume scoring in messy exchanges. His KO/TKO path (6%) requires accumulative damage through scrambles, while submission (4%) remains unlikely given his limited submission attempts (0.36 per 15).
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 36% | Fair: +178
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 68% | Fair: -213
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues defensive metrics – Smotherman's superior StrDef and TDD create decision path edges.
- • Overweights recent form – Both on 2-fight skids, but quality of competition differs significantly.
- • Volume bias – Market may overrate Turcios's output without accounting for defensive vulnerabilities.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ricky Turcios
Volume and late-round surges
Accumulative scramble damage
Opportunistic scramble submission
💥Outcome Distribution - Cameron Smotherman
Technical striking control
Body work and clean power shots
Rare submission opportunity
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ricky Turcios
- • Round 3 dominance: 77% of career wins in final frame.
- • Chaos creation: Force scrambles to disrupt technical flow.
- • Volume accumulation: Bank points through activity.
🎯Path to Victory - Cameron Smotherman
- • Distance control: Maintain boxing range and deny scrambles.
- • Body work: Accumulate torso damage to sap cardio.
- • TD defense: Keep fight standing to maximize advantages.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence via defensive superiority and fight location control
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior defensive metrics (59% StrDef, 63% TDD)
- • Nearly double finish rate (58% vs 31%)
- • Fight location control via TDD
- • Clean striking advantages in technical exchanges
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Turcios's chaos-creation ability
- • Volume judging in close rounds
- • Late-round cardio differentials
🏁Executive Summary
Cameron Smotherman enters this bantamweight clash as the technical favorite, holding clear advantages in defensive efficiency (59% vs 52% StrDef), takedown defense (63% vs 44%), and finishing ability (58% vs 31% finish rate). His polished boxing fundamentals and superior shot selection should allow him to dictate fight location and control exchanges at his preferred range. The 30-foot cage at T-Mobile Arena provides ample space for Cameron to implement his game plan, maintaining distance through footwork and denying Turcios's scrambling entries.
Prediction: Smotherman by Decision most likely (36% probability) through clean striking and effective distance management; Turcios's path requires late-round surges leveraging his superior cardio (13:44 avg duration) and 77% Round 3 win rate. The X-factor remains whether Ricky can successfully force chaotic scrambles that negate Cameron's technical advantages, or if Smotherman maintains clean boxing exchanges that highlight his defensive superiority and finishing power. Model favors Smotherman 60-40 with moderate confidence given stylistic matchup and defensive metrics alignment.