Michael Johnson vs Alexander Hernandez
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett
Saturday, January 24, 2026 • T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Michael Johnson
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Alexander Hernandez
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Michael Johnson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Daniel Zellhuber | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-14 | Ottman Azaitar | W | TKO - Right Hook (R2, 2:03) |
| 2024-02-10 | Darrius Flowers | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-20 | Diego Ferreira | L | TKO - Punch (R2, 1:50) |
| 2022-12-03 | Marc Diakiese | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alexander Hernandez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Diego Ferreira | W | TKO - Strikes (R2, 3:46) |
| 2025-08-16 | Chase Hooper | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-15 | Kurt Holobaugh | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-05 | Austin Hubbard | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-06 | Damon Jackson | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (51.0 vs 49.0) and Grappling Composite (45.0 vs 46.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Michael Johnson Key Advantages
Johnson's 58% striking defense versus Hernandez's 57% represents crucial defensive efficiency. More importantly, his 3.80 strikes absorbed per minute versus Hernandez's 4.62 reveals a significant damage economy advantage. Johnson's ability to minimize incoming damage while maintaining offensive output creates cleaner exchanges and better judging optics. His pull counters and defensive footwork allow him to control distance without absorbing unnecessary punishment, essential against Hernandez's aggressive pressure style.
Johnson's 81% takedown defense represents one of the best defensive wrestling metrics in the lightweight division. Against Hernandez's 1.24 TD/15min rate, Johnson's proven ability to stuff takedowns and maintain fight position creates a significant strategic advantage. His excellent hip positioning, sprawl timing, and cage awareness neutralize Hernandez's wrestling-based pressure, forcing the fight into Johnson's preferred striking range where his technical advantages become decisive.
Johnson's 73.5" reach versus Hernandez's 72" combined with superior height (5'10" vs 5'9") provides critical striking advantages in the 30-foot cage. His ability to maintain distance with jabs, straight punches, and low kicks allows him to score without entering Hernandez's power pocket. The large cage environment amplifies this advantage, giving Johnson more space to utilize his footwork and maintain preferred striking distance throughout the fight.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
At 38 years old, Johnson's durability becomes a significant factor against Hernandez's aggressive power striking. His historical vulnerability to KO/TKO finishes (10 career losses via strikes) combined with declining recovery between rounds creates windows where Hernandez's pressure can become overwhelming. If Hernandez lands clean power shots early and tests Johnson's chin, the veteran's ability to recover and maintain defensive discipline diminishes significantly.
If Hernandez successfully closes distance and pins Johnson against the cage, the veteran's advantages diminish rapidly. Hernandez's ability to mix dirty boxing with takedown threats creates uncomfortable positions where Johnson's striking defense becomes less effective. The younger fighter's superior cardio and pressure style can accumulate damage through clinch work and wall-and-stall sequences that judges reward, especially if Johnson cannot consistently escape back to open space.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Johnson should maximize the 30-foot cage space through constant lateral movement and angles. His jab-and-circle strategy, combined with low kicks to slow Hernandez's entries, keeps the fight at range where his technical boxing advantages shine. Avoid extended exchanges in the pocket, using quick burst combinations followed by immediate exits. His footwork and ring IQ allow him to dictate pace and positioning, forcing Hernandez to cover more ground and expend energy chasing.
Prioritize defensive responsibility and counter-striking opportunities over volume. Johnson's pull counters and timing-based offense should punish Hernandez's aggressive entries. When Hernandez commits to power shots or takedown attempts, Johnson can capitalize with clean counters that score highly with judges. His 58% striking defense combined with selective offensive output creates a low-risk gameplan that accumulates points through cleaner, more effective striking rather than pure volume.
🚀 Alexander Hernandez Key Advantages
Hernandez's six-year youth advantage represents more than chronology—it translates to better recovery, sustained cardio, and accumulated durability. At 32, Hernandez sits squarely in his athletic prime while Johnson battles age-related decline at 38. The younger fighter's ability to maintain high-pace pressure throughout three rounds, combined with superior recovery between rounds, creates compounding advantages as the fight progresses. His 48 cardio score versus Johnson's 45 reflects this physical edge in sustained output.
Hernandez's 1.24 TD/15min versus Johnson's 0.61 provides crucial strategic versatility. While Johnson's 81% TDD is elite, Hernandez's wrestling threats force defensive reactions that open striking opportunities. Even unsuccessful takedown attempts score with judges and drain Johnson's cardio reserves. His ability to chain boxing combinations into takedown entries, or vice versa, creates uncomfortable decision trees for Johnson. This wrestling-based pressure prevents Johnson from settling into rhythm and maximizes Hernandez's physical advantages.
Hernandez's current four-fight winning streak, including a TKO victory over Diego Ferreira (who previously stopped Johnson), demonstrates surging momentum and improved fight IQ. His recent decision wins show tactical maturity—no longer the all-or-nothing fighter of his early career. His 69% win rate and 56% finish rate reflect consistent performance under pressure. The psychological edge of being "the fighter on the way up" versus Johnson as "the veteran gatekeeper" manifests in confidence and risk tolerance throughout the fight.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Johnson successfully maintains range and prevents Hernandez from establishing pressure, the fight becomes a technical boxing match favoring the veteran. Hernandez's 4.62 SApM becomes problematic when Johnson picks him apart with jabs and straight punches without pressure to disrupt timing. The 30-foot cage provides Johnson ample space to circle and reset, potentially frustrating Hernandez and forcing him into predictable, energy-draining forward pressure that scores poorly with judges who see Johnson landing cleaner, more controlled strikes.
Johnson's 81% TDD creates a worst-case scenario where Hernandez's wrestling becomes a liability rather than asset. If his takedown attempts are consistently stuffed, Hernandez expends significant energy without scoring benefits. This forces him into a pure striking battle where Johnson's superior defense (58% vs 57% StrDef, 3.80 vs 4.62 SApM) and reach advantage become decisive. Failed takedowns also create transitions where Johnson can counter with knees, uppercuts, or quick exits that accumulate damage and score points.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Hernandez should immediately establish forward pressure, cutting angles to minimize the 30-foot cage's space advantages. His youth and cardio allow sustained high-pace pressure that tests Johnson's aging body. Mix boxing combinations with level changes to prevent Johnson from settling into rhythm. Force exchanges against the cage where reach advantages diminish and Johnson's defensive footwork becomes less effective. Accumulate volume and control time, banking on judges favoring the aggressor in close rounds.
Early body work becomes crucial against the 38-year-old veteran. Body punches, kicks, and knees in the clinch accumulate damage that compounds over three rounds, slowing Johnson's movement and compromising his cardio. Testing Johnson's aging chin with power shots in the pocket—especially when Johnson commits to counters—exploits his KO/TKO vulnerability. If Hernandez senses damage, increase volume and pressure in Round 2-3 to capitalize on fading defensive reflexes and seek the finish.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates interesting strategic dynamics—it initially favors Johnson's movement-based game and reach advantages, but Hernandez's youth and sustained pressure can compress space as the fight progresses. Johnson benefits from maximum cage space to utilize his footwork, maintain striking range, and avoid extended exchanges. However, Hernandez's relentless forward pressure, angle cutting, and wrestling threats gradually reduce Johnson's room to operate, forcing uncomfortable positions against the fence where the younger fighter's physicality becomes more impactful.
🎯Technical Breakdown
This matchup essentially pits technical refinement against physical advantages. Johnson's superior striking defense (58% vs 57%), better damage economy (3.80 vs 4.62 SApM), and elite takedown defense (81%) create a defensive framework that can frustrate aggressive opponents. However, Hernandez's youth (32 vs 38), superior cardio, and wrestling-based pressure provide multiple pathways to victory. The six-year age gap translates to measurable advantages in recovery, sustained output, and accumulated durability that compound over three rounds.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical exchanges will determine the outcome: Johnson's technical boxing versus Hernandez's aggressive pressure; Johnson's elite TDD versus Hernandez's wrestling-based mix; and age/durability versus youth/cardio in later rounds. If Johnson can maintain distance and make Hernandez work for every engagement, his cleaner striking and defensive efficiency accumulate points. Conversely, if Hernandez successfully applies sustained pressure, forces cage positions, and tests Johnson's aging durability, his physical advantages become increasingly decisive as rounds progress.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Alexander Hernandez by Decision (28% probability), achieved through sustained pressure, wrestling mix, and volume accumulation over three rounds. His youthful cardio and relentless forward pressure should gradually wear down Johnson's defensive framework. Hernandez's KO/TKO path (26%) becomes viable through accumulated body work and testing Johnson's aging durability, particularly in Rounds 2-3. Johnson's path to victory (40% total) centers on maintaining range, utilizing his technical boxing advantages, and frustrating Hernandez's pressure through movement and counter-striking—a decision victory (20%) being his primary lane, with KO/TKO opportunities (18%) arising from perfectly-timed counters against Hernandez's aggressive entries.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 28% | Fair: +257
GOOD VALUE
Model: 18% | Fair: +456
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 48% | Fair: +108
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Age factor underpriced – Market may underestimate Johnson's durability concerns at 38.
- • Momentum premium – Hernandez's 4-fight streak and recent TKO over Ferreira creates psychological edge.
- • Cage size bias – 30ft cage initially favors Johnson but benefits diminish with sustained pressure.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Michael Johnson
Technical boxing and range control
Counter strikes catching aggressive entries
Extremely low submission profile
💥Outcome Distribution - Alexander Hernandez
Primary path via pressure and wrestling mix
Testing aging durability with power shots
Opportunistic submissions from pressure
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Michael Johnson
- • First 5–7 minutes: Maximum technical advantage and freshest movement.
- • Range maintenance: Jab, low kicks, and angles to prevent pressure.
- • Counter opportunities: Punish aggressive entries with clean counters.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Alexander Hernandez
- • Sustained pressure: Youth and cardio allow relentless forward pressure.
- • Wrestling mix: Even failed takedowns score and drain energy.
- • Late advantage: Age gap becomes decisive in championship rounds.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate edge for Hernandez via youth, pressure, and recent form
✅Supporting Factors
- • Six-year youth advantage (32 vs 38) with superior cardio
- • Wrestling mix creates pressure and scoring opportunities
- • Four-fight win streak with momentum and confidence
- • Recent TKO over shared opponent (Ferreira) who stopped Johnson
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Johnson's elite TDD (81%) can neutralize wrestling
- • 30-foot cage favors Johnson's movement and range
- • Technical boxing edge and better damage economy
- • Veteran experience and recent positive form (4-1)
🏁Executive Summary
Alexander Hernandez enters as moderate favorite (60/40) based primarily on age advantage, sustained cardio, and recent momentum. The 32-year-old's physical prime versus 38-year-old Johnson creates measurable advantages in recovery, sustained pressure, and accumulated durability that compound over three rounds. Hernandez's wrestling mix (1.24 TD/15min) combined with aggressive pressure forces uncomfortable positions where Johnson's defensive advantages diminish. However, Johnson's elite takedown defense (81%), superior damage economy (3.80 vs 4.62 SApM), and technical boxing precision create legitimate pathways to victory, particularly if he maintains range and frustrates Hernandez's pressure with movement and counter-striking in the large cage.
Prediction: Hernandez by Decision most likely (28% probability) through sustained pressure, wrestling mix, and volume accumulation over three rounds; alternatively KO/TKO (26%) by testing Johnson's aging durability with power shots in Rounds 2-3. Johnson's path centers on maintaining distance, utilizing technical boxing advantages, and winning a clean decision (20%) or landing perfectly-timed counters for KO/TKO (18%). The fight's outcome hinges on whether Johnson's technical skills and ring IQ can overcome Hernandez's youth, physicality, and relentless pressure as rounds progress.