Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes
Women's Bantamweight Bout • UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett
Saturday, January 24, 2026 • T-Mobile Arena
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Kayla Harrison
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Amanda Nunes
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Kayla Harrison
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Julianna Peña | W | Submission - Kimura (R2, 4:55) |
| 2025-10-04 | Ketlen Vieira | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Holly Holm | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 1:47) |
| 2023-11-24 | Aspen Ladd | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-11-25 | Larissa Pacheco | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Amanda Nunes
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-10 | Irene Aldana | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-30 | Julianna Peña | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2021-12-11 | Julianna Peña | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:26) |
| 2021-03-06 | Megan Anderson | W | Submission - Triangle Armbar (R1, 2:03) |
| 2020-06-06 | Felicia Spencer | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68.0 vs 58.0) and Grappling Composite (52.0 vs 50.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Kayla Harrison Key Advantages
Kayla's Olympic pedigree translates into a suffocating top game that goes beyond simple takedowns. Her ability to chain inside trips from the clinch directly into dominant rides allows her to bypass the dangerous scramble phase where Nunes often finds escapes. Once on the mat, Harrison's heavy hip pressure and wrist control systematically dismantle defenses, forcing opponents to carry her weight for extended periods. Against Nunes, who has historically slowed down when forced to grapple defensively for minutes at a time, this relentless pressure is a path to draining the champion's gas tank.
While Nunes relies on overwhelming offense, Harrison operates with surgical defensive efficiency, absorbing just 1.10 strikes per minute. Harrison’s high guard and disciplined distance management allow her to close the gap while minimizing exposure to clean counters. By refusing to engage in 50/50 striking exchanges and instead forcing the fight into her preferred clinch range, she neutralizes Nunes' biggest asset—her one-shot knockout power—and turns the bout into a test of endurance.
Harrison enters this bout at the absolute apex of her athletic prime, riding a wave of dominance. In contrast, Nunes is returning from a significant layoff and entering the Hall of Fame phase of her career. History has shown that long layoffs combined with age (37) can lead to diminished reflexes and timing. Harrison's activity level and current trajectory suggest a fighter who is still evolving, whereas Nunes is fighting to maintain her legacy.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Harrison fails to secure the clinch early, she risks being picked apart at range by Nunes’ superior reach (69 inches) and diverse striking arsenal. Nunes’ ability to land calf kicks and straight rights from the outside could frustrate Harrison, forcing her into desperate, naked takedown attempts that walk directly into intercepting knees.
Harrison has rarely faced a striker with the stopping power of Nunes. An early accumulation of damage—specifically to the legs or body—could compromise Harrison’s explosive movement and base. If her mobility is hindered, her ability to close distance and execute judo throws diminishes significantly, making her a stationary target.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Harrison must impose immediate forward pressure, cutting off the cage to limit Nunes' lateral movement. The goal is not to out-strike Nunes, but to use strikes as a vehicle to initiate the clinch against the fence, forcing the fight into a grueling battle of attrition where her judo excels.
In the early rounds, Harrison should prioritize position over submission. Securing takedowns and establishing heavy top control to 'cook' Nunes is more valuable than risking position for a quick finish. By making Nunes work to stand up repeatedly in rounds 1 and 2, Harrison invests in late-fight dominance.
🚀 Amanda Nunes Key Advantages
Nunes possesses the most dangerous striking arsenal in women's MMA history. Her ability to end fights with both hands, combined with crippling leg kicks, serves as the ultimate deterrent to takedowns. The threat of a knockout forces grapplers to hesitate, and that split-second of hesitation is often all Nunes needs to land a fight-altering combination.
Having navigated 18 UFC fights and multiple 5-round wars, Nunes has seen every possible scenario inside the octagon. She understands how to manage her energy over 25 minutes and how to weather storms. This deep well of experience is a significant advantage against Harrison, whose composure will be tested on this stage for the first time.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The biggest threat to Nunes is a fight that takes place primarily in the clinch or on the ground. If Harrison succeeds in dragging her into deep waters and forcing continuous grappling exchanges, Nunes’ explosive muscle fibers will deplete, leaving her vulnerable to being overwhelmed in the championship rounds.
Nunes has occasionally shown a tendency to abandon her game plan and brawl when frustrated. If Harrison can survive the early storm and frustrate Nunes with defense, there is a risk that Nunes will overcommit to big shots, gassing herself out and leaving defensive openings for Harrison to exploit.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Nunes must utilize the full 30-foot cage to keep Harrison at the end of her punches. By circling away from Harrison’s power side and using her jab to disrupt entries, she can frustrate the grappler. The key is to never let Harrison settle or cut off the cage easily.
Every time Harrison attempts to close distance, she must pay a tax. Nunes needs to time her intercepting knees and heavy counter-rights to catch Harrison coming in. When the clinch happens, immediate disengagement is crucial to break Harrison's rhythm.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon at T-Mobile Arena presents a fascinating tactical variable. Initially, the ample space favors Nunes, allowing her to utilize her superior footwork and reach to snipe from the outside. She can circle, pivot, and force Harrison to cover significant ground to engage. However, Harrison is a master of cutting angles and corralling opponents. As the fight progresses, if Harrison can successfully compress the fighting area and pin Nunes to the fence, the large cage becomes a trap. The dynamic shifts from open-space striking to claustrophobic fence work, where Harrison's judo throws and body locks negate Nunes' striking room. The battle for the center of the octagon will likely determine who dictates the terms of engagement.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Statistically, this matchup is a collision of efficiency versus volume and power. Harrison lands 4.29 strikes per minute with significant accuracy, but her defining metric is her 1.10 SApM (Strikes Absorbed per Minute). This elite defensive figure highlights her ability to impose her game without taking damage, a critical factor against a finisher like Nunes. Conversely, Nunes lands 4.55 strikes per minute but absorbs 2.62, indicating a willingness to trade to land her power shots. In the grappling department, while offensive takedown stats are comparable, the qualitative difference is immense. Harrison's takedowns often lead directly to dominant positions, whereas Nunes uses them more for scoring or disrupting rhythm. The fighter who can impose their preferred phase will control the scoring criteria.
🧩Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely hinge on the 'transition zone'—the space between striking range and the clinch. This is where Nunes wins with intercepting strikes or where Harrison wins by securing a body lock. If Nunes can consistently land her right hand or check hook as Harrison enters, she will deter the wrestling and keep the fight standing. However, if Harrison can absorb or slip past that initial line of defense to secure an underhook or collar tie, the advantage swings violently in her favor. Additionally, the battle of conditioning in rounds 3, 4, and 5 will be pivotal. Can Nunes maintain her explosive output against a relentless grappler, or will Harrison's grinding style slowly erode the champion's defenses?
🏁Final Prediction
Our model and analysis point to a victory for Kayla Harrison, primarily driven by her ability to dictate where the fight takes place. We forecast a strategy centered on early pressure, clinching, and mat returns that will sap Nunes' energy and neutralize her power. While Nunes possesses the 'neutralizer' in her right hand and remains dangerous for every second the fight is standing, the probability favors Harrison’s consistent, high-percentage path to victory over Nunes’ reliance on a knockout moment. We predict Harrison weathering an early storm to take over in the middle rounds, likely securing a Unanimous Decision or a late TKO/Submission via ground-and-pound attrition.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 24% | Fair: +317
GOOD VALUE
Model: 24% | Fair: +317
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 50% | Fair: +100
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Disrespects Kayla's defense – Market often undervalues low SApM stats.
- • Overvalues Nunes' resume – Ignoring layoff and age factors.
- • Control equity mismatch – Kayla's grappling control is a safer path to victory than Nunes' striking.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Kayla Harrison
Control-heavy decisions
Ground-and-pound or attrition
Kimura or RNC threats
💥Outcome Distribution - Amanda Nunes
Catching Kayla on entries
Strong takedown defense and striking
Opportunistic submissions
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Amanda Nunes
- • First 10 minutes: Highest intercept KO equity.
- • Perimeter control: Using reach to stall entries.
- • Surges: Short bursts of high output.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Kayla Harrison
- • Chain wrestling: Accumulate control time.
- • Damage economy: Low risk exchanges.
- • Late rounds: Cardio advantage takes over.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong data signal but respectful of Nunes' power
✅Supporting Factors
- • Strong defensive metrics (1.10 SApM)
- • Grappling style exploits Nunes' weakness
- • Prime age vs Nunes' layoff
- • Recent momentum
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Nunes' one-shot power
- • Smaller UFC sample size for Kayla
- • Big cage favors Nunes' movement
🏁Executive Summary
In a matchup that defines the pinnacle of the Women's Bantamweight division, Kayla Harrison represents the unstoppable force of grappling efficiency colliding with the immovable object of Amanda Nunes' legendary striking power. Our comprehensive analysis favors Kayla Harrison (~58% probability) based on her elite defensive metrics, unmatched top control, and physical prime. Harrison's path to victory relies on a disciplined game plan of pressure, clinch work, and ground dominance that targets Nunes' historical susceptibility to fatigue in prolonged grappling exchanges.
Conversely, Amanda Nunes (~42% probability) remains a very live underdog due to her unparalleled finishing ability and championship pedigree. Her path involves utilizing the large cage to maintain range, punishing Harrison's entries with elite counter-striking, and potentially finding a knockout blow early in the fight. However, the data suggests that as the fight extends, the probability shifts increasingly toward Harrison.
Prediction: Kayla Harrison by Decision or Submission. Ultimately, we predict that Harrison’s relentless pace and grappling pedigree will be the deciding factors, allowing her to control the majority of the bout and usher in a new era at 135 pounds.