Valentina Shevchenko vs Weili Zhang
UFC Women's Flyweight Championship • UFC 322
Saturday, November 15, 2025 • Madison Square Garden
Champion Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Challenger Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Valentina Shevchenko
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Manon Fiorot | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-14 | Alexa Grasso | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-16 | Alexa Grasso | D | Draw - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-04 | Alexa Grasso | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R4, 4:34) |
| 2022-06-11 | Taila Santos | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Weili Zhang
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Tatiana Suarez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Yan Xiaonan | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-19 | Amanda Lemos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-11-12 | Carla Esparza | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 1:05) |
| 2022-06-11 | Joanna Jedrzejczyk | W | KO/TKO - Spinning Back Fist (R2, 2:28) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (85 vs 82) and Grappling Composite (78 vs 75). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Valentina Shevchenko Key Advantages
63% striking defense vs 54% and only 2.06 SApM. Size and reach advantage facilitate distance management.
60% TD accuracy vs 46% with reliable top control to slow Zhang’s early pace.
Longer levers and counterstriking at range reduce Zhang’s blitz windows.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Zhang’s higher submission attempt rate (0.52/15) can create danger if control is lost.
Zhang’s volume (5.15 SLpM) and power entries in the first 10 minutes can swing momentum.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Maintain range, snipe entries, mix in timed takedowns to control rounds.
Pace the fight; aim for late-round dominance leveraging cardio and control.
🚀 Weili Zhang Key Advantages
5.15 SLpM with early-round surges; carries real finishing threat when closing distance.
0.52 submission attempts per 15 vs 0.31 — opportunistic finishing if grappling sequences open.
Knockdown power and combination blitzes can overwhelm before Shevchenko settles the range.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Extended outside striking favors Shevchenko’s counters and defensive reads.
Shevchenko’s 60% TD accuracy and positional control can stifle Zhang’s offense.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Blitz entries and combinations early; force clinch/grappling exchanges to create submission threats.
Avoid extended defensive sequences at range; pick windows to explode and disengage.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Size, Defense, and Experience
Shevchenko owns the reach and defensive metrics (63% StrDef; 2.06 SApM) needed to control pace over five rounds. Zhang’s volume and power are real, but moving up in weight narrows her margin for error against a champion who excels at range management and positional control.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Striking composites (85 vs 82) favor Shevchenko’s efficiency, while grappling composites (78 vs 75) suggest moderate control edges. Zhang’s higher Sub/15 (0.52 vs 0.31) remains a constant opportunistic threat in scrambles.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Three phases decide outcomes: (1) early exchanges where Zhang can overwhelm with pressure, (2) takedown battles where Shevchenko’s precision vs Zhang’s defense (60% vs 74% TDDef) dictate control, and (3) championship rounds where Shevchenko’s cardio (avg. 18:44) sustains decision-winning pace.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Shevchenko via decision remains primary given control metrics and defensive superiority, with KO/TKO live on counters. Zhang’s paths involve early knockdowns or submission chains off clinch/ground exchanges.
🏁Final Prediction
Our 72–28 model leans Shevchenko by decision due to defensive metrics, range control, and five-round pacing. Zhang still carries legitimate early finishing equity via power surges and submissions.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Market floats near +200s. Model: 28% (~+257 fair). Monitor spikes above +230.
GOOD VALUE
Model leans decision-heavy paths. Price improves if market expects finish.
SLIGHT VALUE
Aligns with 72–28 and decision lean; avoid if price steams to -150.
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overestimates early finish likelihood — defensive metrics favor distance.
- • Undervalues Shevchenko decision equity — cardio + control in 5 rounds.
- • Line volatility on Zhang — value appears if underdog price drifts.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Shevchenko
Defensive edge and control metrics
Counter windows off entries
Top control to finish sequences
💥Outcome Distribution - Zhang
Early surge windows
Volume outduels efficiency
Opportunistic grappling
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Zhang
- • First 10 minutes: Peak pressure and power entries
- • Rounds 1-2: Highest finishing cluster historically
- • Distance collapse: Force clinch and scramble layers
- • Varied targets: Head-body-leg sequences to open counters
🎯Progressive Dominance - Shevchenko
- • Round 3+: Defensive reads, counters, and control accumulate
- • Position first: Mix-in takedowns to bank minutes and damage
- • Risk management: Limit scramble chaos; choose entries
- • Score optics: Clean counters and mat returns win moments
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence in decision-heavy paths and range control
✅Supporting Factors
- • Reach and defensive edges (63% StrDef; 2.06 SApM)
- • Takedown accuracy advantage (60% vs 46%)
- • Superior five-round pacing and control optics
- • Proven championship experience and adaptability
- • Favorable round-timeline profile (R4–R5)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Zhang’s early power surges and knockdown threat
- • Higher submission attempt rate (0.52 per 15)
- • Moving up dynamics may add power for Zhang
- • Potential judging variability in close rounds
- • Market volatility creating asymmetric exposure
🏁Executive Summary
This championship fight presents a classic clash of defensive efficiency and range control versus high-output aggression and opportunistic grappling. Shevchenko’s technical and cardio edges align with five-round decision paths, while Zhang’s best chances cluster early.
Prediction: Shevchenko by Decision (primary). Live danger exists early for Zhang via KO/TKO or submissions, but defensive and pacing metrics favor the champion across most simulations.