Tom Nolan vs Evan Elder
UFC Perth
Saturday, September 27, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
Last 5 Fights - Tom Nolan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Viacheslav Borshchev | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-17 | Alex Reyes | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-18 | Victor Martinez | W | KO/TKO (knee) (R1, 3:50) |
| 2024-02-10 | Nikolas Motta | L | KO (punches) (R1, 1:03) |
| 2023-11-20 | Trevor Sinclair | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Evan Elder
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | Gauge Young | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-13 | Darrius Flowers | W | Submission (arm-triangle) (R2, 1:46) |
| 2023-07-15 | Genaro Valdez | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-18 | Nazim Sadykhov | L | TKO (doctor stoppage) (R3, 5:38) |
| 2022-04-23 | Preston Parsons | L | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Tom Nolan advantage: 18.6%Cardio Score
Evan Elder advantage: 11.5%Overall Rating
Tom Nolan advantage: 0.8%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (59.8 vs 62.7) and Grappling Composite (42.4 vs 23.6). Combines striking effectiveness with grappling ability.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, output, takedown rate, and finish share. Measures endurance and ability to sustain pace.
🎯 Overall Rating
Average of Technical and Cardio Scores for a holistic capability view.
Striking Composite
Evan Elder advantage: 4.8%Grappling Composite
Tom Nolan advantage: 79.7%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and inverse of Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including output, precision, and defense.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Tom Nolan Key Advantages
Tall, rangy striker who intercepts entries with long 1-2s and knees.
Creates submission looks from scrambles, clinch breaks, and front-headlock series.
Considerably better takedown defense than Elder (67% vs 40%).
Historically dangerous late; can swing close rounds with clinch control and submission looks.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Elder owns better accuracy (+5%) and much better defense (+11%).
Staying in the pocket without clinch transitions cedes Elder's best minutes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Intercept entries with long straight shots and knees; seek momentum swings.
Lean on clinch trips and mat returns to test Elder's 40% TDD; hunt front-headlocks/back takes.
Mix feints to open straight lanes; show occasional level change to keep Elder honest.
🚀 Evan Elder Key Advantages
Clean shot selection and strong defensive outcomes across minutes.
Wins late minutes in large cages.
Controls distance with footwork and low‑kicks that slow entries and reset exchanges.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
40% TDD can be exploited by clinch trips and mat returns leading to submission threats.
Can lose minutes stuck on the fence if separation isn't created quickly.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Keep space in the big cage, jab and counter to win minutes.
Intentionally raise output in the third to close strong if R1 was competitive.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Rising Prospect vs Veteran Contender
This matchup represents a classic clash between emerging talent and established experience. Nolan's 9-1 record with recent UFC success shows he's finding his rhythm at the highest level, while Elder's 10-2 record demonstrates proven ability to compete consistently. The 4-year age gap favors Nolan's explosiveness and recovery, while Elder's veteran savvy in managing rounds becomes crucial if the fight extends beyond early exchanges.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a fascinating striker vs. grappler dynamic. Elder's striking advantages are meaningful: 5% higher accuracy (51% vs 46%) and significantly better defense (57% vs 46%), translating to cleaner exchanges. However, Nolan's grappling superiority is substantial with 243% more submission attempts (1.65 vs 0.48 per 15min) and better takedown defense (67% vs 40%). The key battleground becomes Nolan's opportunistic grappling against Elder's defensive striking and cage management.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Three critical phases will determine the outcome: (1) Early rounds where Nolan's explosive power and length pose maximum threat, (2) Takedown battles where Nolan's pressure meets Elder's defensive wrestling, and (3) Round 3 where Elder's proven conditioning and late-round composure could overwhelm a fighter with limited three-round experience. Elder's reach management and lateral movement create opportunities for counter-striking, while Nolan must maintain pressure to maximize his grappling advantages.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Nolan's path to victory involves utilizing his superior grappling and length to create submission opportunities or control positions. His recent performances suggest he can handle the pressure of facing experienced competition. Early aggression and maintaining pressure will be crucial to avoid Elder's counter-striking game.
Conversely, Elder must leverage his striking efficiency and cage management to create scoring opportunities. His proven ability to win decisions becomes paramount if he can survive the early pressure and keep the fight at his preferred range where accuracy and defense matter most.
🏁Final Prediction
This compelling matchup (62-38% prediction model) favors Elder due to his superior striking metrics, defensive efficiency, and proven ability to manage rounds effectively. His recent decision victories demonstrate his ability to execute a game plan consistently. However, Nolan's submission threat, takedown defense, and physical advantages create constant danger. The fight likely plays out as a tactical battle with Elder looking to score from range while Nolan seeks to close distance and create grappling opportunities.Prediction: Elder by Decision, but Nolan's submission threat and physical advantages make this fight competitive throughout all three rounds.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
No official prices available yet — dynamic odds boxes will show N/A until posted.
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
💥Outcome Distribution - Tom Nolan
🏆Outcome Distribution - Evan Elder
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Competitive three-round matchup with stylistic edges favoring Elder; Nolan's early power and grappling keep danger present.
Confidence Level
Solid conviction via accuracy/defense gap
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elder's 51% StrAcc, 57% StrDef
- • Longer average fight time and minute building
- • Large cage suits defensive footwork
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Nolan's early KO equity
- • Nolan's 1.65 subs/15 and 67% TDD
- • Three‑round volatility in close decisions
🏁Executive Summary
This lightweight bout presents a compelling clash of styles: emerging prospect versus established contender. Elder's superior striking efficiency, defensive metrics, and proven ability to manage rounds create significant advantages, while Nolan's submission threat, takedown defense, and physical advantages provide constant danger throughout all three rounds.
The betting market appears to accurately reflect the competitive nature of this matchup, with Elder's 62% win probability well-supported by the statistical analysis. Nolan's 38% chance is justified by his opportunistic grappling and power, which can flip momentum rapidly if he enforces clinch cycles.
Key factors: Elder's distance control and counter accuracy in the 30‑ft cage; Nolan's success forcing clinch sequences and generating submission/back‑take looks; round‑to‑round damage management to avoid early swing moments.
Final Verdict: Elder by Decision (≈55%). Superior accuracy/defense and late‑minute building edge the cards; Nolan's early KO/sub equity preserves meaningful upset potential if he commits to clinch‑first sequences.