Luana Carolina vs Michelle Montague
Women's Bantamweight Bout β’ UFC Perth
Saturday, September 27, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Luana Carolina
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-20 | Lucie PudilovΓ‘ | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-03 | Julija Stoliarenko | W | TKO - Ground Strikes (R3, 4:52) |
| 2023-07-01 | Ivana PetroviΔ | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-18 | Joanne Wood | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-03-19 | Molly McCann | L | KO - Spinning Back Elbow (R3, 1:52) |
Last 5 Fights - Michelle Montague
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-16 | Marilia Morais | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 1:44) |
| 2024-06-22 | Karolina Sobek | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 2:41) |
| 2023-08-23 | Abby Montes | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 3:38) |
| 2023-02-03 | Shaquita Amador Woods | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 4:45) |
| 2022-10-14 | Danielle Wynn | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R3, 2:50) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
π Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
πͺ Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
π― Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
π₯ Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
π€Ό Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
π₯ Fight Analysis Breakdown
π Luana Carolina Key Advantages
Volume kickboxer who scores at range; large cage favors lateral movement and resets.
Proven defensive baseline vs wrestlers; first-layer frames and whizzers to deny rides.
Extra space supports lateral exits and denies clinch density needed for chain-wrestling.
β οΈ Unfavorable Scenarios
Conceding back exposure during stands increases Montague's submission threat.
Long fence exchanges allow chain attempts and mat returns that erode minutes.
π Likely Gameplan
Keep range, sprawl-and-brawl, circle off the fence.
Prioritize defensive underhooks, head position, and quick fence breaks over clinch offense.
π Michelle Montague Key Advantages
Back-taking specialist with RNC/arm-triangle trends; accelerates once on top.
Re-cycles single/double attempts into body-locks and trips to finish sequences.
Strong wrist rides and hooks convert takedowns into dominant control and finishing sequences.
β οΈ Unfavorable Scenarios
Long minutes at range in a big cage reduce entry success and waste attempts.
Higher attempt volume needed to corral in large cage can drain gas tank in R2βR3.
π Likely Gameplan
Close distance, clinch to body-lock, ride to back and hunt RNCs.
Prioritize hooks, wrist rides, and hand-fighting to convert control into highβpercentage RNC/armβtriangle attempts.
π― Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
πDetailed Analysis Summary
πChampionship Dynamics
This matchup pits a veteran UFC-range striker against a debuting submission specialist. The large cage in Perth enhances Carolina's ability to manage distance and deny clinch density, tilting early round geography away from extended grappling.
π―Technical Breakdown
Carolina's 74% takedown defense and proven output at range contrast with Montague's powerful submission profile from PFL. If entries are corralled to the fence, Montague's finishing equity spikes; otherwise, Carolina accumulates minutes cleanly.
β‘Key Battle Areas
First eight minutes are pivotal: clean rides/back takes favor Montague; sprawls, frames and exits favor Carolina. Scramble discipline and cage craft likely decide the scorecards.
πFinal Prediction
Carolina survives early grappling threats often enough to edge rounds with volume at range. Montague remains live for an early submission, but over a typical 3-round large-cage dynamic, the favorite is Carolina by decision.
π Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
πMarket Odds
π€Analytical Model
πValue Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 26% | Market varies
GOOD VALUE
Model: 45% | Market ~50%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 54% | Market ~55%
π― Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
πOutcome Distribution - Luana Carolina
Primary path via range control
Less common, accumulation stoppage
Occasional opportunistic grappling
π₯Outcome Distribution - Michelle Montague
Main finishing method from top control
Occasional ground-and-pound TKO
Less likely at UFC pace
β°Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
β‘Window of Opportunity - Michelle Montague
- β’ First 7β8 minutes: best chance to secure rides
- β’ R1 submissions most frequent in prior bouts
- β’ Avoid chasing hooks without wrist control
π―Progressive Dominance - Luana Carolina
- β’ Round-by-round accumulation at range
- β’ Sprawl, frame, break; avoid prolonged clinch
- β’ Decision-friendly scoring pattern
π― Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7.5/10 - Favoring veteran range striker vs debut grappler
Confidence Level
Solid read; volatility from UFC debut sample
β Supporting Factors
- β’ 74% TDD and proven UFC pace
- β’ Large cage benefits range striking
- β’ Decision-leaning profile fits 3 rounds
β οΈRisk Factors
- β’ Debut variance for Montague
- β’ Early submission danger on clean entries
- β’ Potential judging variability in close rounds
πExecutive Summary
Luana Carolina enters with measurable UFC metrics and a style profile that typically scales in large cages: long-range striking, reliable first-layer takedown defense, and a decision-leaning tempo. Michelle Montague brings real submission urgency and functional chain wrestling from regional/PFL tape, but remains untested at full UFC pace and large-cage geometry.
The matchup likely hinges on the first 7β8 minutes. Clean cage rides and back exposure create immediate finish equity for the debutant; however, if early entries are denied or diluted, the favorite's jab/teep/lowβkick patterns and fence breaks should bank minutes. Scorecards are the modal path: Carolina by decision.
Bottom line: moderate confidence in the veteran's round-winning geometry (7.5/10), with elevated volatility from Montague's submission-over-volume paradigm in round one.