Gilbert Burns vs Mike Malott
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Saturday, April 18, 2026 • Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Gilbert Burns
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Mike Malott
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Gilbert Burns
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | Michael Morales | L | TKO - Right Hook & Follow Up (R1, 3:39) |
| 2024-09-07 | Sean Brady | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-09 | Jack Della Maddalena | L | TKO - Knee to Ground Strikes (R3, 3:43) |
| 2023-05-06 | Belal Muhammad | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-08 | Jorge Masvidal | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Mike Malott
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Kevin Holland | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-05-10 | Charles Radtke | W | TKO - Left Hook to Ground Punches (R2, 0:26) |
| 2024-11-02 | Trevin Giles | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-20 | Neil Magny | L | TKO - Ground & Pound (R3, 4:45) |
| 2023-06-10 | Adam Fugitt | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 1:06) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (60.0 vs 62.0) and Grappling Composite (68.0 vs 48.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Gilbert Burns Key Advantages
Burns' 9 career submissions and 0.46 SubPer15 create constant submission threat. His black belt BJJ with deep guard game means any scramble or takedown could end the fight. Against Malott's catastrophic 17% takedown defense, Burns can likely get the fight to the ground at will. Once there, his submission chains—armbar to triangle to omoplata—represent the most dangerous ground game in the welterweight division.
Burns has faced and beaten elite competition including Tyron Woodley, Demian Maia, and Stephen Thompson. His 20 UFC fights vs Malott's 8 creates a significant experience gap, especially in high-pressure main event scenarios over five rounds. Burns knows how to manage pace, read opponents, and adjust mid-fight—skills developed through competing at championship level.
The statistical mismatch is staggering: Burns attempts 2.12 takedowns per 15min against Malott's 17% takedown defense—the lowest in the UFC welterweight division. Even Burns' modest 38% accuracy becomes devastating against such poor defensive wrestling, projecting roughly 1.6 successful takedowns per round.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Malott's 4.09 SLpM output with knockout power represents Burns' biggest risk. At 39, Burns has shown increased vulnerability to strikes (lost to Della Maddalena via TKO). If Malott can maintain range and land clean power shots, the 3" height and 2" reach advantage becomes significant.
Burns at 39 is in the twilight of his career with diminishing chin durability. Three of his last four fights were losses, including two stoppages. Malott at 33 is in athletic prime with the physical tools to exploit any decline.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Burns should immediately close distance and initiate clinch work, using his wrestling to bypass Malott's striking range. From the clinch, Burns can execute trips, outside singles, and body locks to take the fight to the ground where his BJJ dominance becomes overwhelming.
Once on the mat, Burns should work actively toward submissions rather than control time. His armbar-triangle-sweep chains can end the fight from any position, and Malott's inexperience in high-level grappling exchanges means Burns can take calculated risks.
🚀 Mike Malott Key Advantages
Malott's 6'1" frame with 73" reach creates significant striking opportunities at range. His ability to utilize jabs, front kicks, and straight punches from distance allows him to score without entering Burns' dangerous clinch range. The size advantage becomes more pronounced as Burns ages and loses the explosiveness to close distance quickly.
Malott's 4.09 SLpM with devastating finishing power creates constant threat. His 84.6% finish rate across 13 wins demonstrates he rarely leaves fights in judges' hands. The Canadian's ability to hurt opponents and swarm with follow-up strikes has produced 5 KO/TKO and 6 submission victories, showing versatility in his finishing arsenal.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Burns' BJJ represents an existential threat on the ground. With 17% takedown defense, Malott will likely find himself on his back multiple times. Burns' submission game from top position and guard means every ground exchange carries fight-ending risk for Malott.
Malott's 8:30 average fight duration and limited experience in five-round fights raises serious cardio concerns. Burns' pressure wrestling could drain Malott's energy reserves, making rounds 4 and 5 increasingly one-sided.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Malott should utilize his reach advantage to establish jabs and straight punches, keeping Burns at the end of his punches. Calf kicks and front kicks to the body can damage Burns' mobility and discourage forward pressure.
When Burns attempts takedowns, Malott needs to sprawl immediately and create separation. His 55% striking defense suggests decent awareness, and his ability to generate power from awkward angles means he can punish Burns' level changes with uppercuts and knees.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon provides space for Malott to utilize his range weapons early, but Burns' pressure and clinch work should gradually compress the available space. The cage becomes Burns' ally as he pins Malott against the fence for takedown attempts and dirty boxing—areas where his experience advantage is most pronounced.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The key statistical mismatch is Burns' grappling composite (68.0) vs Malott's (48.0), amplified by Malott's catastrophic 17% takedown defense. While Malott holds advantages in striking output (4.09 vs 3.15 SLpM) and striking defense (55% vs 52%), these become less relevant once Burns establishes clinch control. Burns' 2.12 TD15 against 17% TDDef projects to dominant ground control time.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical areas determine the outcome: (1) Burns' ability to close distance against Malott's range, (2) first-minute scrambles after takedowns where Burns' BJJ vs Malott's athleticism compete, and (3) late-round cardio where Burns' experience in five-rounders meets Malott's untested championship-round endurance.
🏁Final Prediction
Most likely outcome is Gilbert Burns by Submission (22%) through persistent takedown pressure exploiting Malott's 17% TDDef, followed by submission chains from dominant positions. Burns by Decision (20%) via control time accumulation. Malott's best path is KO/TKO (25%) by utilizing reach advantage and power before Burns establishes grappling control in R2.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 22% | Fair: +355
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Fair: +300
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 53% | Fair: -113
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Burns' submission threat – 17% TDDef creates massive grappling exposure.
- • Overweights Malott's momentum – Recent wins came against lower-tier competition.
- • Five-round implications – Malott's untested cardio in championship rounds.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Gilbert Burns
Elite BJJ creates constant submission threats from top position
Takedown pressure and top control accumulate scoring minutes
Power hands in exchanges and ground-and-pound finishes
💥Outcome Distribution - Mike Malott
Primary path via volume striking and power advantage at range
Requires consistent takedown defense and range management
Opportunistic guillotine or choke from scrambles
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Mike Malott
- • First 5 minutes: Highest KO equity while fresh and explosive. Must land clean power shot.
- • Range control: Jab + straight right to keep Burns at distance. Avoid clinching.
- • Sprawl early: First takedown defense at 1:30 of R2 sets tone. Show defensive wrestling capability.
If Malott gets clean jab + right hand combo, he can stun Burns and swarm for finish. After R1 ends, the window closes significantly as Burns' pressure game accelerates.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Gilbert Burns
- • Clinch entries: Close distance to negate reach disadvantage. Dirty boxing to frustrate Malott.
- • Takedown chains: Persistent wrestling (1-2 per round) saps Malott's energy reservoir rapidly.
- • Late rounds: Superior cardio and grappling dominate R2-R3 as Malott visibly slows.
Once Burns lands 1-2 successful takedowns and spends 60-90 seconds on top, Malott's energy curve drops noticeably. R3 becomes heavily Burns-favored.
📋Round-by-Round Prediction
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate edge via grappling and experience, tempered by Burns' age and Malott's power
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite BJJ creates constant submission threat on the mat
- • 20-fight UFC experience vs Malott's 8 fights
- • Superior grappling composite (68.0 vs 48.0)
- • Malott's 17% TDDef is historically exploitable
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Burns at 39 with recent KO/TKO losses showing chin wear
- • Malott's 3-inch reach advantage and heavy hands
- • Burns' 52% StrDef leaves him hittable on the feet
🏁Executive Summary
Gilbert Burns' world-class BJJ and veteran fight IQ should allow him to navigate Mike Malott's dangerous early power and eventually impose his grappling game. Burns' 2.12 TD15 targeting Malott's historically poor 17% takedown defense creates a clear path to control time and submission opportunities. However, at 39 years old with back-to-back KO losses to Lemos and MVP, Burns' durability is a legitimate concern against Malott's 4.09 SLpM output. Malott's physical advantages in height (3 inches) and reach (2 inches) give him meaningful tools to keep the fight standing, where his 62.0 striking composite slightly edges Burns' 60.0.
Prediction: Burns by Submission is the most likely single outcome (22% probability), followed by Malott by KO/TKO (25% — his best individual path). The fight hinges on whether Burns can survive Malott's early power shots and close the distance for takedowns. If Burns gets the fight to the mat, his elite grappling should be decisive. If Malott keeps it standing through Round 1, his knockout probability increases significantly.