UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett Event Analytics & Predictions
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett — Predictions, Odds & Start Time
Full Fight Card Analytics & Breakdowns (T-Mobile Arena)
Advanced UFC 324 analysis for Gaethje vs Pimblett featuring detailed fighter performance metrics, model probabilities vs market odds, expert UFC betting picks, how to watch and start time. Our MMA analytics platform delivers in‑depth technical breakdowns and predictions for a championship double‑header including Harrison vs Nunes.
We provide super‑detailed fight analyses using proprietary MMA data and AI‑powered models to maximize decision‑making value. Access fight‑by‑fight value betting analysis — model probabilities vs market odds, best value bets, projected odds and actionable fight picks.
📊Analysis Reliability Framework
Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.
High Risk (**)
<3 UFC Bouts
Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.
Moderate Risk (*)
3-4 UFC Bouts
Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.
Optimal Data
5+ UFC Bouts
Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.
UFC 324 Fights, Analytics & Predictions
We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).
Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary
| Fight | Fighter A | Model Prob A | Market Odds A | Implied Prob A | Fighter B | Model Prob B | Market Odds B | Implied Prob B | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaethje vs Pimblett🟢 | Justin Gaethje | 70.0% | N/A | — | Paddy Pimblett | 30.0% | N/A | — | Gaethje +70.0%Striking volume, damage economy, and durability |
| O'Malley vs Song🟢 | Sean O'Malley | 64.0% | N/A | — | Yadong Song | 36.0% | N/A | — | O'Malley +64.0%Distance control, volume, and precision advantage |
| Cortes-Acosta vs Lewis🟢 | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 67.0% | N/A | — | Derrick Lewis | 33.0% | N/A | — | Cortes-Acosta +67.0%Volume dominance and superior cardio |
| Silva vs Namajunas🟢 | Natália Silva | 63.0% | N/A | — | Rose Namajunas | 37.0% | N/A | — | Silva +63.0%Volume striking dominance and elite TDD |
| Allen vs Silva🟢 | Arnold Allen | 63.0% | N/A | — | Jean Silva | 37.0% | N/A | — | Allen +63.0%Defense, experience, and big-cage movement |
| Nurmagomedov vs Figueiredo🟢 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 73.0% | N/A | — | Deiveson Figueiredo | 27.0% | N/A | — | Nurmagomedov +73.0%Control of fight location and superior metrics |
| Krylov vs Bukauskas🟢 | Nikita Krylov | 45.0% | N/A | — | Modestas Bukauskas | 55.0% | N/A | — | Bukauskas +55.0%Grappling depth and submission threat |
| Perez vs Johnson🟢 | Alex Perez | 60.0% | N/A | — | Charles Johnson | 40.0% | N/A | — | Perez +60.0%Wrestling control and grappling superiority |
| Johnson vs Hernandez🟢 | Michael Johnson | 40.0% | N/A | — | Alexander Hernandez | 60.0% | N/A | — | Hernandez +60.0%Youth, pressure, wrestling mix, and momentum |
| Turcios vs Smotherman🟡 | Ricky Turcios | 40.0% | N/A | — | Cameron Smotherman | 60.0% | N/A | — | Smotherman +60.0%Striking volume and accuracy advantage |
Fight of the Night ($100,000 each)
Performance of the Night ($100,000)
Event Discussion
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