UFC 322 New York: Expert Picks and Value Opportunities (Della Maddalena vs Makhachev)

New York, USA — November 15, 2025

This event analysis focuses strictly on moderate/optimal setups. We present clear, model‑driven insights for eight targeted fights with concise value takeaways.

Key UFC 322 Betting Insights:

• Welterweight Title: Islam Makhachev 70% vs Jack Della Maddalena 30% — top control and denial vs elite boxing
• Women’s Flyweight Title: Valentina Shevchenko 72% vs Weili Zhang 28% — range control, defense, and ride‑time insurance
• Women’s Flyweight: Erin Blanchfield 75% vs Tracy Cortez 25% — pressure grappling and re‑attempts
• Welterweight: Leon Edwards 70% vs Carlos Prates 30% — defensive ringcraft and efficient offense
• Women’s Strawweight: Angela Hill 58% vs Fatima Kline 42% — jab economy and distance management
• Middleweight: Kyle Daukaus 54% vs Gerald Meerschaert 46% — clinch turns and top‑time equity
• Middleweight: Bo Nickal 62% vs Rodolfo Vieira 38% — elite entries and ride‑time control
• Middleweight: Gregory Rodrigues 52% vs Roman Kopylov 48% — power optics and counter layers

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Arbitrage Opportunities: Current Scan

No persistent cross‑book arbitrage windows identified at publish time. We’ll update if short‑lived mispricings appear.

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Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev — Welterweight Championship

Data Profile and Tactical Read

• Experience reliability: Optimal on Makhachev; strong on Della Maddalena. Stable, championship‑level read.
• Striking metrics: Della — 6.4 SLpM, 51% acc, 55% def, 4.2 SApM. Makhachev — 2.3 SLpM, 58% acc, 62% def, 1.2 SApM.
• Grappling metrics: Della — 0.2 TD/15 @ 15%, 70% TDDef, 0.2 Sub/15. Makhachev — 3.3 TD/15 @ 62%, 90% TDDef, 1.0 Sub/15.
• Physicals: Height — Della 71" vs Makhachev 70"; Reach — Della 73" vs Makhachev 70". Both at 170 lbs.
• Composite ratings: Striking/Grappling — Della 92/68 vs Makhachev 78/96.
• Style snapshot: Della’s pocket boxing and body work vs Makhachev’s entries, ride‑time and posture‑safe control.

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

• Phase contrast: Jack’s pocket boxing and bodywork vs Islam’s entries, ride time, and mat returns.
• Denial layers: Single‑to‑body‑lock chains and wrist rides compress Jack’s set‑ups and tax clock.
• Damage vs control: Jack’s KO equity early; Islam’s control over longer minutes.
• Distance management: Della must create jab/feint lanes without exposing hips; Makhachev wants fence pins and shelfed hips.
• Takedown entries: Catch‑and‑shoot under jabs and kicks; time level changes off Della’s combinations.
• Ground control: Posture breaks, cross‑wrist strikes, short GNP accumulate optics and threaten subs.
• Counter jeopardy: Della’s counters on broken entries; Islam must avoid naked shots at mid‑range.
• Pace control: Control stints reduce Della’s volume spikes and protect optics.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

• Model probability: Makhachev 70% vs Della Maddalena 30%
• Official pick: Islam Makhachev — control cycles and denial
• Value: Strong favorite profile unless markets inflate far north of 70% implied.
• Keys to victory: Makhachev — jab feints→double/body‑lock, shelf hips, wrist rides; Della — defend first layer, pivot exits, body counters.
• Risk factors: Della’s pocket power early; scrambles into guillotine lanes.
• Decision path: Control time + clean singles vs pocket damage optics.
• Finish scenarios: Islam sub/TKO from top; Della KO in exchanges.
• Judging criteria: Top control plus effective striking vs clean pocket damage.
• Live angles: Track TD success and ride‑time accumulation for in‑play value.

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Valentina Shevchenko vs Weili Zhang — Women’s Flyweight Championship

Data Profile and Tactical Read

• Experience reliability: Optimal on both. High‑confidence read.
• Striking metrics: Valentina — 3.2 SLpM, 52% acc, 63% def, 2.2 SApM. Weili — 5.3 SLpM, 46% acc, 54% def, 4.0 SApM.
• Grappling metrics: Valentina — 2.0 TD/15 @ 50%, 77% TDDef, 0.5 Sub/15. Weili — 1.8 TD/15 @ 38%, 70% TDDef, 0.7 Sub/15.
• Physicals: Height — Valentina 65" vs Weili 64"; Reach — 66" vs 63". Both 125 lbs.
• Composite ratings: Striking/Grappling — Valentina 86/88 vs Weili 90/82.
• Style snapshot: Valentina’s range discipline and defensive layers vs Weili’s pressure combinations and athletic bursts.

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

• Range discipline: Valentina’s footwork and shot selection suppress Weili’s combination volume.
• Fail‑safes: Timely level threats and fence pins reduce volatility and re‑center control.
• Minute economy: Clean optics with low absorption.
• Distance management: Angled exits and jab kicks blunt blitzes; Weili needs layered entries.
• Takedown timing: Defensive level looks to keep Weili honest; opportunistic doubles after counters.
• Counter jeopardy: Weili’s flurries create counter hooks/knees lanes if overspeed.
• Pace control: Valentina’s tempo shaping limits exchange tax.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

• Model probability: Shevchenko 72% vs Zhang 28%
• Official pick: Valentina Shevchenko — range control and defensive layers
• Value: Strong favorite profile; avoid overpaying above model.
• Keys to victory: Valentina — first‑contact control, angle exits, well‑timed level looks; Weili — force pocket, 2nd‑phase combos, clinch breaks.
• Risk factors: Extended brawls increase variance; Weili’s burst damage windows.
• Decision path: Volume control + defense vs forward optics.
• Finish scenarios: Valentina late TKO/sub off trips; Weili club‑and‑sub/KO.
• Live angles: Watch Weili’s success creating extended exchanges.

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Erin Blanchfield vs Tracy Cortez

Data Profile and Tactical Read

• Experience reliability: Strong on both; optimal on Blanchfield’s sample.
• Striking metrics: Blanchfield — 4.0 SLpM, 45% acc, 57% def, 2.6 SApM. Cortez — 3.2 SLpM, 45% acc, 56% def, 2.8 SApM.
• Grappling metrics: Blanchfield — 3.8 TD/15 @ 55%, 78% TDDef, 1.1 Sub/15. Cortez — 1.9 TD/15 @ 37%, 72% TDDef, 0.5 Sub/15.
• Physicals: Height — Erin 64" vs Tracy 65"; Reach — 66" vs 67". Both 125 lbs.
• Composite ratings: Striking/Grappling — Erin 78/90 vs Tracy 72/82.
• Style snapshot: Erin’s pressure wrestling and ride‑time vs Tracy’s balanced wrestling/boxing and denial.

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

• Pressure grappling: High attempt volume with A→B→C re‑shots builds reliable control.
• Ride‑time equity: Wrist rides and mat returns drain counter opportunities.
• Risk windows: Keep entries layered to protect from counters in open space.
• Distance management: Jabs into level changes to avoid extended exchanges.
• Ground control: Short top pockets accrue optics; back‑takes live late.
• Pace control: Re‑shots on broken chains compress variance.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

• Model probability: Blanchfield 75% vs Cortez 25%
• Official pick: Erin Blanchfield — pressure and re‑attempts
• Value: Strong favorite unless priced well above model.
• Keys to victory: Erin — chain shots, wrist rides, mat returns; Tracy — first‑layer sprawls, underhooks, circle‑offs.
• Risk factors: Early counters; cardio tax if prolonged re‑shots fail.
• Decision path: Control time + singles vs clean counters.
• Finish scenarios: Erin late sub/control‑assisted TKO; Tracy close decision on damage.

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Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates

Data Profile and Tactical Read

• Experience reliability: Optimal on Edwards; strong on Prates.
• Striking metrics: Edwards — 2.8 SLpM, 52% acc, 54% def, 2.4 SApM. Prates — 5.1 SLpM, 50% acc, 47% def, 4.2 SApM.
• Grappling metrics: Edwards — 1.4 TD/15 @ 33%, 70% TDDef, 0.2 Sub/15. Prates — 0.4 TD/15 @ 20%, 62% TDDef, 0.4 Sub/15.
• Physicals: Height — Edwards 72" vs Prates 75"; Reach — 74" vs 78". Both 170 lbs.
• Composite ratings: Striking/Grappling — Edwards 86/82 vs Prates 84/70.
• Style snapshot: Edwards’ defensive ringcraft and shot selection vs Prates’ pressure striking and long weapons.

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

• Defensive ringcraft: Leon’s exits and counter triggers blunt Prates’ extended exchanges.
• Clinch/fence insurance: Quick breaks and efficient takedown denial bank optics.
• Shot selection: Clean scoring over volume brawls.
• Distance management: Manage reach disparity with feints, calf kicks, and jab counters.
• Counter jeopardy: Prates’ long knees and straight shots vs entries; Leon’s pull‑counter.
• Pace control: Keep fights in clean space; avoid long cornered sequences.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

• Model probability: Edwards 70% vs Prates 30%
• Official pick: Leon Edwards — efficient minutes and defense
• Value: Fair through ~70% implied.
• Keys to victory: Leon — exit discipline, deny clinch shelves, jab/low‑kick scoring; Prates — force fence, long combinations, clinch knees.
• Risk factors: Reach gap; fence traps if exits degrade.
• Decision path: Clean optics + defense vs forward pressure.
• Finish scenarios: Leon late accumulation/club‑and‑sub; Prates KO off long knees.

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Angela Hill vs Fatima Kline

Data Profile and Tactical Read

• Experience reliability: Optimal on Hill; moderate on Kline.
• Striking metrics: Hill — 5.1 SLpM, 49% acc, 63% def, 4.0 SApM. Kline — 3.3 SLpM, 47% acc, 55% def, 2.6 SApM.
• Grappling metrics: Hill — 0.3 TD/15 @ 20%, 77% TDDef, 0.1 Sub/15. Kline — 1.1 TD/15 @ 37%, 64% TDDef, 0.6 Sub/15.
• Composite ratings: Striking/Grappling — Hill 82/66 vs Kline 70/76.
• Style snapshot: Hill’s jab economy and veteran ringcraft vs Kline’s well‑rounded prospect profile.

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

• Jab economy: Angela’s lead‑hand control dictates entries and exits.
• Counter awareness: Angle discipline to preempt level changes.
• Round optics: Activity and clean connections favor Hill on cards.
• Distance management: Keep Kline at end of jab/low‑kick; sprawl‑and‑brawl when needed.
• Pace control: Veteran cadence to avoid wrestling pockets.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

• Model probability: Hill 58% vs Kline 42%
• Official pick: Angela Hill — distance management and jab value
• Value: Best near pick’em; price sensitive above 58–60% implied.
• Keys to victory: Hill — jab volume, angle exits, quick breaks; Kline — level mix, clinch turns, back‑takes.
• Risk factors: Wrestling pockets and control optics vs activity.
• Decision path: Jab volume + defense vs short control stints.

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Gerald Meerschaert vs Kyle Daukaus

Data Profile and Tactical Read

• Experience reliability: Optimal on GM3; strong on Daukaus.
• Striking metrics: GM3 — 3.1 SLpM, 43% acc, 51% def, 3.3 SApM. Daukaus — 3.2 SLpM, 45% acc, 56% def, 2.8 SApM.
• Grappling metrics: GM3 — 2.0 TD/15 @ 31%, 58% TDDef, 1.4 Sub/15. Daukaus — 1.6 TD/15 @ 34%, 66% TDDef, 0.7 Sub/15.
• Composite ratings: Striking/Grappling — GM3 66/80 vs Daukaus 70/78.
• Style snapshot: GM3’s submission gravity vs Daukaus’ clinch turns and steady control equity.

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

• Clinch turns: Kyle’s fence cycles and brief top time bank consistent optics.
• Submission gravity management: Stay posture‑safe vs GM3’s front‑choke tree.
• Minute math: Control stints plus low absorption edge close rounds.
• Distance management: Keep GM3 off front‑headlock set‑ups; pummel wins.
• Pace control: Safe re‑sets off breaks; avoid extended scrambles.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

• Model probability: Daukaus 54% vs Meerschaert 46%
• Official pick: Kyle Daukaus — clinch turns and control equity
• Value: Thin favorite; playable while ≤55–57% implied.
• Keys to victory: Daukaus — collar‑ties, inside trips, top pockets; GM3 — front‑chokes, back‑takes, knee‑line traps.
• Risk factors: Front‑choke sequences; level changes into guillotine lanes.
• Decision path: Clinch control + singles vs sub threats and damage.

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Bo Nickal vs Rodolfo Vieira

Data Profile and Tactical Read

• Experience reliability: Moderate‑to‑strong on both; Nickal’s style reduces variance.
• Striking metrics: Nickal — 3.8 SLpM, 55% acc, 58% def, 2.2 SApM. Vieira — 2.4 SLpM, 50% acc, 52% def, 2.6 SApM.
• Grappling metrics: Nickal — 5.5 TD/15 @ 65%, 75% TDDef, 1.2 Sub/15. Vieira — 2.3 TD/15 @ 45%, 60% TDDef, 2.0 Sub/15.
• Composite ratings: Striking/Grappling — Nickal 72/92 vs Vieira 66/88.
• Style snapshot: Nickal’s elite entries and ride‑time vs Vieira’s world‑class BJJ and submission chains.

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

• Entry trees: Bo’s double‑legs and body‑locks convert to ride time.
• Fail‑safes: Re‑shots on breaks minimize scramble variance vs elite BJJ.
• Damage optics: Short ground‑and‑pound windows accumulate.
• Distance management: Safe entries and head position; avoid extended over‑unders.
• Submission threat: Vieira’s guillotines/arm‑in triangles on sloppy shots.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

• Model probability: Nickal 62% vs Vieira 38%
• Official pick: Bo Nickal — entries, ride time, and denial
• Value: Good favorite through low‑60s implied.
• Keys to victory: Nickal — chain shots, chest‑to‑chest rides, posture breaks; Vieira — front‑chokes, sweep threats, early sub hunts.
• Risk factors: Submission landmines on entries; cardio management in scrambles.
• Decision path: Ride‑time + singles vs sub attempts.
• Finish scenarios: Nickal TKO/sub from top; Vieira quick sub off snared neck/arm.

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Roman Kopylov vs Gregory Rodrigues

Data Profile and Tactical Read

• Experience reliability: Strong on both.
• Striking metrics: Kopylov — 4.0 SLpM, 52% acc, 55% def, 3.2 SApM. Rodrigues — 4.1 SLpM, 56% acc, 50% def, 3.8 SApM.
• Grappling metrics: Kopylov — 0.4 TD/15 @ 20%, 68% TDDef, 0.2 Sub/15. Rodrigues — 0.8 TD/15 @ 35%, 60% TDDef, 0.4 Sub/15.
• Composite ratings: Striking/Grappling — Kopylov 78/66 vs Rodrigues 80/72.
• Style snapshot: Roman’s clean left‑hand lanes vs Gregory’s counter power and clinch‑break shots.

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

• Power optics: Gregory’s counters and clinch‑break shots swing optics.
• Phase variety: Mix fence looks to tax Roman’s resets.
• Risk management: Keep exits disciplined to avoid clean left‑hand lanes.
• Distance management: Roman wants long, clean lanes; Gregory wants clinch layers and counters.
• Pace control: Gregory to mix looks; Roman to deny clinch pockets.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

• Model probability: Rodrigues 52% vs Kopylov 48%
• Official pick: Gregory Rodrigues — power optics and counter layers
• Value: Price sensitive; playable around even money.
• Keys to victory: Rodrigues — counter discipline, clinch breaks, low‑kick set‑ups; Kopylov — manage exits, deny clinch, left‑hand lanes.
• Risk factors: Defensive lapses on exits; power trades mid‑cage.
• Decision path: Clean counters + mixed phases vs straight left optics.

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Top Value Opportunities (Market‑Dependent)

• High Value (when priced ≤ model implied)

  • Erin Blanchfield — Pressure grappling and re‑attempts; value to ~75% implied.
  • Valentina Shevchenko — Range/defense; value near ~72% implied if markets lag.

• Medium Value (contextual pricing)

  • Islam Makhachev — Control cycles; value near ~70% implied.
  • Bo Nickal — Entry trees and ride time; value through low‑60s implied.
  • Leon Edwards — Efficient minutes and defense; holds value near ~70% implied.

• Situational/Contrarian

  • Jack Della Maddalena (KO exposure) — Only if Islam inflates >60–62% implied.
  • Weili Zhang (damage in space) — If Valentina inflates well above model.

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Statistical Summary: Model Probabilities vs Market Notes

Fight	Fighter (Pick)	Model Probability	Edge/Note
Della Maddalena vs Islam	Islam Makhachev (Pick)	70%	Control cycles and denial
Shevchenko vs Zhang	Valentina Shevchenko (Pick)	72%	Range control and defensive layers
Blanchfield vs Cortez	Erin Blanchfield (Pick)	75%	Pressure grappling and re‑attempts
Edwards vs Prates	Leon Edwards (Pick)	70%	Efficient minutes and defense
Hill vs Kline	Angela Hill (Pick)	58%	Jab economy and distance management
Meerschaert vs Daukaus	Kyle Daukaus (Pick)	54%	Clinch turns and control equity
Nickal vs Vieira	Bo Nickal (Pick)	62%	Entries, ride time, and denial
Kopylov vs Rodrigues	Gregory Rodrigues (Pick)	52%	Power optics and counter layers

Notes: Market edges depend on live pricing relative to our model and BetOnline availability.

Conclusion

UFC 322 New York presents a value‑aware slate where control cycles, defensive stability, and initiative‑first tools underpin our positions. Respect contrarian KO/sub equity when prices stretch; size stakes to edge strength and avoid paying above model.

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