UFC 320 Betting Analysis: Expert Picks and Value Opportunities

Las Vegas, Nevada — October 4, 2025

The UFC returns to Las Vegas for a championship‑stacked card headlined by Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira 2. This analysis mirrors our UFC Perth article structure, delivering objective, model‑driven insights for nine targeted fights with clear value takeaways.

Key UFC 320 Betting Insights:

Main Event: Ankalaev (54% model) vs Pereira (46%) — razor‑thin edges, style contrast
Co‑Main: Dvalishvili (62%) vs Sandhagen (38%) — wrestling pressure vs elite movement
Feature: Procházka (70%) vs Rountree Jr. (30%) — volatility vs experience

Arbitrage Opportunities: Current Scan

No persistent cross‑book arbitrage windows identified at publish time. We’ll update if short‑lived mispricings appear.

Main Event: Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira 2

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

Macro profile: Event data indicates Ankalaev’s defensive baseline (StrDef ~61%, TDDef ~82%) and lower damage intake (StrAbs ~2.85) vs Pereira’s higher‑risk/high‑reward striking profile (SLpM ~5.24, StrAbs ~4.12, TDDef ~75%). This shifts round‑to‑round volatility toward Pereira but the decision math toward Magomed.
Range and triggers: Pereira owns the height/reach edge (~+1"/+4"). He wins when the fight is played at his chosen distance (outside feints → step‑in left hook/low‑kick sequencing). Ankalaev’s counter right and stance switches disrupt the set‑point and force resets.
Cage geography: Ankalaev’s ringcraft funnels exchanges off the fence where level changes can appear as a “threat of takedown” more than a control plan. Even feinted shots reduce Pereira’s shot selection and slow combination speed.
Round texture: R1–R2 favor Pereira’s damage threat. R4–R5 favor Ankalaev’s cardio and risk management. The swing lies in R3, where cumulative leg‑kick tax vs defensive discipline often decides optics.
Shot selection & defense: Pereira’s best entries are left‑hook counters off low‑kick reads and step‑through rear kicks; Ankalaev answers with outside‑foot positioning, parry‑to‑cross counters, and quick tie‑ups to break rhythm. Ankalaev’s jab/feint series forces longer routes, making Pereira’s counters travel further.
Southpaw/orthodox dynamics: The open‑stance pocket amplifies rear‑hand lanes. Ankalaev’s southpaw cross fits Pereira’s slip patterns; Pereira’s left hook punishes square exits if Ankalaev overcommits.
Fail‑safes (toolkit): (1) Single‑leg to fence pin → shoulder pressure → quick break; (2) Half‑level feint into jab reset to blunt left‑hook traps; (3) Outside‑leg check into southpaw pivot to protect lead leg after Pereira stance‑switch; (4) Collar‑tie stall (2–3 s) when pocket gets hot, then hard exit.
Calf‑kick answers: Shin‑to‑shin checks with toe‑out at 30°, immediate inside‑low kick return to stop stance switching, plus step‑in jab to punch through the reload.

Alex Pereira

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

Model probability: Ankalaev 54% vs Pereira 46%
Official pick: Ankalaev (decision lean) — defensive stability, late‑round control, plus credible level‑change insurance
Keys: Ankalaev—deny clean pocket, mix in counters/level threats, optimize minute‑winning. Pereira—front‑load damage, trap resets, protect cardio with efficient shot selection.
Value: Neutral near pick’em. If Ankalaev trades to >60% implied, small contrarian value appears on Pereira’s KO equity; if Pereira becomes favorite, Ankalaev’s decision path regains value.

Magomed Ankalaev

Co‑Main: Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

Loadout contrast: Merab’s TD15 (~4.85), TDAcc (~58%), TDDef (~88%) represent a rare three‑layer engine: entry, finish, and re‑attempt. Cory brings elite SLpM (~5.89) and defensive movement, but TDDef (~72%) vs this cadence is stress‑tested.
Fence cycles (sequence map): Over‑under pummel → head position under Cory’s chin → wrist ride to mat return (knee‑tap or lift) → shelf the hips against fence. Even failed finishes steal optics and drain clock.
Ride‑time details: Merab prefers wrist rides with cross‑face to deny wall‑walk. If Cory builds a post, Merab switches to double‑wrist, drags to seat, and resets the mat return.
Damage vs control: Scorecards hinge on whether Cory lands the cleaner shots in space (step‑ins, intercept knees) often enough to overcome the control accrual. Those windows exist, but he must win the hand‑fight before throwing elbows on breaks.
Cardio economy: Merab scales linearly; Cory’s efficiency drops when he must defend chained attempts (A→B→C). R3–R5 increasingly favor Merab.
Entry trees: Single → tree‑top → trip; Single → knee‑tap → mat return. Cory must cut the chain at the pummel with hip turns and immediate angle steps.

Cory Sandhagen

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

Model probability: Merab 62% vs Cory 38%
Official pick: Merab — cumulative control and attritional pace over five rounds
Keys: Merab—double‑up attempts, ride time, predictive re‑shots. Cory—damage optics, force breaks into mid‑cage resets, punish entries with knees.
Value: Merab is a high‑reliability favorite if priced ≤62% implied. Cory becomes value if markets drift too far above 65% on Merab.

Merab Dvalishvili

Feature: Jiří Procházka vs Khalil Rountree Jr.

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

Tempo turbulence: Jiří’s awkward rhythms and angle changes deny Rountree’s preferred set‑feet mechanics. Rountree is lethal when parked behind southpaw rear‑hand and body kicks; Jiří forces “non‑set” exchanges.
Chaos rhythm management: Jiří alternates probe → angle → long hook/step‑knee, then resets with stance switches. These rhythm breaks reduce the read time on Rountree’s counters.
Defense tradeoff: Jiří’s StrAbs (~4.45) reflects high‑variance entries, but his recovery plus threat stacking (elbows on inside, collar‑tie knees, slicing hooks) frequently flips sequences back.
Small grappling edge: Not a plan, but off‑balance outside trip and body‑lock turns keep Rountree honest and slow the kick engine.
Leg‑kick game: If Jiří lingers square he’ll eat calf kicks; answers are step‑through knees on catch reads and stance switches that move the target offline.

Khalil Rountree Jr.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

Model probability: Procházka 70% vs Rountree 30%
Official pick: Procházka — more paths and minute volatility management
Value: Jiří retains value if priced ≤68% implied. Rountree is strictly price‑sensitive KO leverage.

Jiří Procházka

Josh Emmett vs Youssef Zalal

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

Aging curve vs ascendancy: Emmett’s singular power remains, but output/footwork trend down with age. Zalal’s SLpM (~4.12), reach (~72") and lateral movement reshape the cage geometry.
First layer defense: Zalal’s shot denial and exit discipline reduce Emmett’s counter windows off level feints. If Emmett must lead, his accuracy taxes and exchanges elongate where Zalal scores in bursts.
Grapple wrinkle: Zalal’s TD15 (~1.85) and scrambling can steal optics when needed. Emmett’s TDDef (~72%) is fine but not fight‑defining here.
Shot maps: Emmett’s highest‑value lanes are overhand/uppercut off level‑feint; Zalal should finish combos with L‑step/V‑step pivots and keep head off center.
Clinching exits: Frame with lead forearm, peel collar tie, pivot to center—avoid backing to fence where Emmett’s right hand plays.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

Model probability: Zalal 65% vs Emmett 35%
Official pick: Zalal — youth, pace, and center control
Value: Zalal is a value side if markets overweight legacy power; Emmett live only via early counters.

Youssef Zalal

Joe Pyfer vs Abusupiyan Magomedov

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

Initiative premium: Pyfer’s composite power and shot selection earn the “first read” advantage. Abus thrives in clean set‑ups; Pyfer denies set‑ups by occupying space and changing cadence.
Clinch to mat: With TDAcc mid‑40s and strong clinch, Pyfer can stack fence rides and brief top time. Abus’ TDDef (~82%) is solid but he concedes resets; Pyfer gains clock and optics.
Durability accounting: Pyfer absorbs less and maintains form deeper into minutes; Abus’ success windows shrink as fights get scrappy.
Kick lanes: Abus' best weapon is long kicks into straight counters. Pyfer should step inside kicks, jab‑to‑cross, and attach the clinch.
Cage cutting: Outside‑foot marches and diagonal feints trap Abus; avoid chasing the back foot.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

Model probability: Pyfer 65% vs Magomedov 35%
Official pick: Pyfer — pressure wins initiative and minutes
Value: Playable favorite unless market inflates beyond ~68% implied.

Joe Pyfer

Macy Chiasson vs Yana Santos

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

Frame leverage: Macy’s height/reach and clinch strength make fence‑work a profitable loop. TD15 (~2.85) with serviceable accuracy builds cumulative control.
Yana’s route: Kicks and counters in open space; if shelved at fence, volume and accuracy decay.
Judging heuristics: Short control stints + body work along fence swing close rounds.
Hand‑fight & head position (micro): Win underhook, crown under the opponent’s chin, knee the body, short elbow on break; return to underhook if frame is lost.
Cycle math: Three to four fence cycles per round → round ownership even without big damage.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

Model probability: Chiasson 57% vs Santos 43%
Official pick: Chiasson — control optics, size, and repeatable sequences
Value: Best near pick’em; fades if priced as a large favorite.

Macy Chiasson

Edmen Shahbazyan vs André Muniz

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

Submission gravity: Muniz’s Sub/15 is elite; body‑lock → outside trip → half‑guard with cross‑face → wrist control. Threat tree: arm‑triangle, armbar, back takes off failed frames.
Stand‑up layer: Edmen’s straight‑line boxing (≈50% StrAcc) can bank moments, but he must punish level changes with uppercuts/knees or concede grappling.
Attrition mechanic: Wrist rides and top pressure drain Edmen’s form; later minutes tilt heavily to Muniz.
Defensive orders (Edmen): Re‑guard first, build a post, wedge knee shield, stand; accept scrambles over settling bottom. Whizzer hard when Muniz climbs to the back; never give two hands to choke.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

Model probability: Muniz 65% vs Shahbazyan 35%
Official pick: Muniz — positional dominance and submission threat
Value: Solid favorite profile unless priced north of ~70% implied.

André Muniz

Farid Basharat vs Chris Gutierrez

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

Leg‑kick mitigation (specifics): (1) Shin‑to‑shin checks with toe‑out 25–35° to protect peroneal; (2) Inside‑low‑kick return off check to stop stance‑switch chains; (3) Step‑in jab/straight on the reload to punish the hip re‑set.
Lead‑hand control: Farid hand‑fights the outside wrist before entering combinations—this blocks spin setups and forces conventional returns.
Phase variety: Mix A: jab‑low‑kick; B: jab‑to‑clinch; C: clinch‑mat return. Pushing Chris into reactive phases reduces the free calf‑kick tempo.
Ring craft: Circle off the open side after kicks; avoid being herded to the fence where calf‑kick volume stacks unnoticed.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

Model probability: Basharat 62% vs Gutierrez 38%
Official pick: Basharat — phase variety and defensive layers
Value: Playable at modest favorite pricing; best ≤62% implied.

Farid Basharat

Punahele Soriano vs Nikolay Veretennikov

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

First‑step power: Soriano’s entries win judges; establishing jab‑to‑rear hand early forces Nikolay to concede ground or accept counters.
Exit discipline (checklist): (1) Finish combos with L‑step or inside pivot; (2) Frame with lead forearm on head/shoulder; (3) Peel any collar‑tie and re‑center; (4) Mix a short level change to break timing.
Body investment: Left to body → right high keeps Nikolay’s guard honest; add right to body on exits to blunt counters.
Grapple nudge: Short clinch turns (over‑under to quarter‑turn) rob time and reduce counter lanes without taxing cardio.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis (Detailed Analysis Summary)

Model probability: Soriano 55% vs Veretennikov 45%
Official pick: Soriano — slight edge via initiative and optics
Value: Thin; becomes attractive as prices approach even money.

Punahele Soriano

Top Value Opportunities (Market‑Dependent)

High Value (when priced ≤ model implied)
- Merab Dvalishvili — Control cycles scale over 5R; reliable if ≤62% implied.
- Jiří Procházka — More paths and chaos management; value to ~68% implied.
- Joe Pyfer — Initiative and durability edge; value up to ~68% implied.
Medium Value (contextual pricing)
- Youssef Zalal — If market over‑weights Emmett power or legacy, Zalal at small favorite/near even is strong.
- Farid Basharat — Phase variety; value when books hang ≤60–62% implied.
Situational/Contrarian
- Alex Pereira (KO exposure) — If Ankalaev inflates >60–62% implied, contrarian KO equity becomes +EV.
- Macy Chiasson — Best as near‑even money due to lower finishing upside.
- Punahele Soriano — Only if books drift toward coin‑flip.

Statistical Summary: Model Probabilities vs Market Notes

Fight	Fighter	Model Probability	Edge/Note
Ankalaev vs Pereira 2	Magomed Ankalaev (Pick)	54%	Pereira KO equity remains a live hazard
	Alex Pereira	46%	Contrarian value if fav price inflates
Dvalishvili vs Sandhagen	Merab Dvalishvili (Pick)	62%	Control cycles and re‑attempts
	Cory Sandhagen	38%	Needs damage‑forward optics
Procházka vs Rountree Jr.	Jiří Procházka (Pick)	70%	Higher path count, volatility acknowledged
Emmett vs Zalal	Youssef Zalal (Pick)	65%	Youth, pace, and center control
Pyfer vs Magomedov	Joe Pyfer (Pick)	65%	Initiative and pressure
Chiasson vs Santos	Macy Chiasson (Pick)	57%	Size/frame leverage at fence
Shahbazyan vs Muniz	André Muniz (Pick)	65%	Submission gravity and control
Basharat vs Gutierrez	Farid Basharat (Pick)	62%	Phase variety and defense
Soriano vs Veretennikov	Punahele Soriano (Pick)	55%	Thin favorite; power optics

Notes: Market edges are contingent on live pricing relative to our model.

Official Picks Summary

Favorites we back: Ankalaev, Merab, Procházka, Pyfer, Chiasson, Muniz, Basharat, Soriano
Live underdog considerations: Pereira (KO), Rountree volatility, Emmett power (price‑sensitive)

Conclusion

UFC 320 offers a robust slate of technical contrasts and value‑aware positions. We lean into defensive stability, control cycles, and initiative‑first strikers while respecting KO volatility in several matchups. As lines move during fight week, size stakes to edge strength and avoid paying above model.

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