Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane
Heavyweight Bout • UFC Freedom Fights 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
Sunday, June 14, 2026 • 30 ft Octagon • South Lawn, Washington D.C.
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Alex Pereira
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Ciryl Gane
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alex Pereira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Magomed Ankalaev | W | KO/TKO — Elbows (half guard) (R1, 1:20) |
| 2025-03-08 | Magomed Ankalaev | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-05 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | W | KO/TKO — Punch (R4, 4:32) |
| 2024-06-29 | Jiri Prochazka | W | KO/TKO — Head Kick (R2, 0:13) |
| 2024-04-13 | Jamahal Hill | W | KO/TKO — Punch (R1, 3:14) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ciryl Gane
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Tom Aspinall | NC | No Contest (eye injury — clash) (R1, 4:35) |
| 2024-12-07 | Alexander Volkov | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-02 | Serghei Spivac | W | KO/TKO — Punches (R2, 3:44) |
| 2023-03-04 | Jon Jones | L | SUB — Guillotine Choke (R1, 2:04) |
| 2022-09-03 | Tai Tuivasa | W | KO/TKO — Punches (R3, 4:23) |
Technical Analysis
Fight ratings are elite-adjusted for an interim HW title (pedigree, finishing threat, champion profiles). Striking/grappling composites below stay mechanical HW benchmarks—a raw composite average would land ~58.8 / 60.2 technical for this pair.
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Elite fight rating (not raw composite avg). Mechanical baseline: 58.8 / 60.2. Pereira: 79 (#4/22 striking impact, #6/22 grappling on 79% TDDef)—KD threat and accuracy lift him above the HW rebaseline. Gane: 83 (#1/22 striking pillar at 84.3 composite, grappling #17/22)—elite defensive HW toolkit.
💪 Cardio Score
Elite-adjusted from duration (11:57 vs 14:15), R3/R1 surges (172% vs 176%), and title-fight output (Pereira +118% vs Gane 74%). Mechanical baseline: 72 / 73. Pereira: 78; Gane: 79—both title-tier engines; the edge is whether Poatan's champ surge or Bon Gamin's R3 crest owns minutes 15–25.
🎯 Overall Rating
Average of elite technical + cardio ratings. Mechanical composite overall would be ~65.4 / 66.6. Pereira: 78.5 (#2/22, 95th percentile HW— dual-division champ, #1 KD exchange). Gane: 81 (#1/22, 100th percentile)— top-tier defensive HW, slight overall edge, still a live Poatan kill shot.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Cross-weight title fight: Poatan's LHW-calibrated metrics re-benchmarked against 22 active heavyweights vs Bon Gamin's native HW profile (#2 StrDef, #3 SApM). Overall ratings sit 65.4 vs 66.6—a statistical coin flip—but the central tension is 62% accuracy vs 62% defense with a 7:1 vs 3:1 knockdown ledger, mirrored R1 leg-kick opens (~40% vs ~34%), and opposing championship curves (118% output lift vs 74% fade). Technical Striker vs Technical Striker baselines at 50/50; individual deviations drive the 46/54 simulation.
🧩 Alex Pereira Key Advantages
Twenty-one documented knockdowns dealt against three absorbed gives Poatan arguably the nastiest payoff per landed strike in elite company. Even filtered through Bon Gamin's 62% shell, whatever gets through carries a different threat profile than the volume Gane is used to banking against heavyweights—it is single-shot KO equity, not attritional tagging.
His lifetime numbers were earned against faster 205ers; heavyweights hit harder but also present larger, more linear targets. That 62% accuracy still grades near the top of the HW curve—pair it with his head-kick portfolio and the Prochazka-range puzzle (80" reach solved twice) and you have a credible answer to Gane's length on paper.
Championship-round data shows Pereira actually elevates output when belts are on the line while Gane's historical title sample fades to ~74% of his normal pace. If this becomes a minutes war after the early feeling-out process, that divergence is the cleanest trend line in the entire report—late precision (71% accuracy in modeled R5 samples) meets a flagging Gane output curve.
Pereira's HW grappling composite (48) is almost entirely takedown defense—he does not shoot or submit, but he grades #6/22 on the roster. Gane cannot replay the Jones/Ngannou grind script; Poatan forces a kickboxing tax where 79% TDDef keeps the fight vertical.
The narrative oversells a 185-pounder at HW: Pereira walks ~215–220 lbs, arrives without a cut for the first time, and actually owns a 2" leg-reach edge (44" vs 42"). Prochazka at 80" reach—essentially Gane's 81"—was solved twice (R2 head kick; R2 ground elbows). The gap is real (~20–30 lbs) but kickboxing IQ and timing bridge it more than raw scale alone.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Charging into Gane's 81" reach in a 30-foot cage is how smaller heavyweights get clipped. Pereira's 54% striking defense is only slightly above the HW mean—if he loads wide while Gane stays on his bike, the Frenchman's 0.37 counter index creates damage without needing extended pocket trades.
Both athletes open with ~35–40% leg volume in R1. If Gane wins the calf battle, Poatan's base for power kicks and right hands erodes before the kill shot ever arrives. Combine that with a documented 40% slow-start rate and the first five minutes remain his most accident-prone window.
Shooting recklessly invites the same family of fight-ending chokes Jones used—Gane carries credible guillotine equity and late-round desperation grappling reads. Pereira wins when he mirrors the disciplined Ankalaev rematch: measured entries, elbows only from secure shells.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Attack the calf early at the same tempo Gane does—whoever steals lateral movement first buys the runway for crosses and head kicks later. Pereira's tooling rates show an even heavier leg-kick bias than Gane's; this is not a feel-out round, it is a structural battle.
Layer teeps and body work to pull the hands down, then layer the right hand and left hook off broken rhythm—exactly the sequence that produced the R2 knockdown spike (0.33 KD/rd trend) in the database profile. Stay patient: the finish window often opens after the leg and trunk investment tax is paid.
Head-kick rate grades among his highest tools—Prochazka fell at 0:13 in R2. Use kicks as the range equalizer on a 30-foot canvas, but never dive into reckless shots: Jones finished Gane with a guillotine from the same family of traps Poatan must respect if he shoots without position.
🚀 Ciryl Gane Key Advantages
Gane lives at the top of the HW charts for making people miss and for simply not being there when leather arrives. A 2.80 damage ratio contextualizes it: he manufactures clean optics even when he is not throwing fight-ending single blows. That is the firewall Pereira's 62% accuracy slams into—fewer clean connections, slower accumulation.
Same listed height, wildly different mass habits. Gane carries the bone density and clinch thickness of a true heavyweight; even glancing power from 245+ lb frames hits differently than what Pereira tolerated at 205. Reach plus disciplined footwork buys time for reads.
Database round curves show Gane's cleanest minutes in the championship frame where he stacks 31.8 significant strikes on a 65.8% clip and tilts head targeting to 55%. If Pereira has not authored a finish by then, Gane enters his highest- confidence scoring zone while Poatan's knockdown expectancy temporarily cools.
Gane's damage ratio (2.80) and counter cadence let him win minutes without brawling—he scores on exits while Pereira hunts single-shot equity. On a 30-foot South Lawn canvas that rewards resets, that profile grades #2 StrDef / #3 SApM in the HW pool and is the structural reason the model leans 54% despite Poatan's 7:1 knockdown ledger.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Model data tags Pereira's second round as his peak knockdown interval. If Gane is still calibrating footwork during his 50% slow-start split, one clean channel (right straight, step knee, or intercepted kick) can erase all the pretty defensive curves.
When belts are involved, Gane's output historically drops to ~74% of normal while Pereira ramps to 118%. Combine that with Pereira's late head-hunt pattern (70% head share in modeled R4 sequences) and Bon Gamin cannot afford to coast in minutes 15–25 if he is ahead on cards.
Both men who beat him did it by erasing his feet with prolonged grappling pressure. Pereira almost never wrests that way—so Gane cannot autopilot the cheat code. If the fight instead becomes a clean kickboxing affair, the exact variable Gane least wants—unguarded power trading—remains live.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Live on the outside of the 30-foot canvas, feinting through the jab, exiting on angles, and punishing committed kicks with straight lines. The statistical objective is to force Pereira to overreach, then bank clean counter sequences before disengaging—never standing in the pocket to trade symmetrically.
Treat the first two rounds as calibration: match leg work, accept lower volume, deny the big exchange. From the mid-fight checkpoint forward, lean on the 31.8-strike R3 blueprint—step up volume, mix head and body, and test whether the weight jump taxed Pereira's recovery. If R5 arrives with both tired, his desperation clinch and submission feints spike in the data—use them to steal sequences, not stall outright.
R5 sub-attempt rate spikes to ~0.67/round—when output fades, Bon Gamin shifts to collar ties, trips, and guillotine families (Jones finish; heel hook vs Mayes on tape). Pereira's 79% TDDef stops traditional wrestle cycles, but opportunistic chokes off scrambles remain live if Poatan shoots without secure position.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
Thirty feet of workspace on the South Lawn tilts scoring toward whoever commands the perimeter. Gane thrives when he can reset on long straights—jab feints, exit-step counters, and symmetrical leg kicking that mirrors Pereira's southpaw reads. Pereira narrows geometry by trapping opponents on the fence with pressure feints rather than brute wrestle cycles. Translation: rounds often look like alternating zones—wide open space favors Bon Gamin, compressed pockets favor Poatan. Pereira's camp must steal the center in bursts without chasing; Gane's camp must deny those bursts with teeps and lateral exits so judges see control at range, not only survival.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Mechanical composites diverge (Gane 84.3 vs Pereira 69.5 striking; Poatan 48 vs 36 grappling on TDDef), but elite fight ratings sit at 78.5 vs 81—both top-three HW profiles (#2 vs #1/22). The model still keys on shot quality vs filtration: 62% offense against 62% defense with Pereira owning the catastrophe tail (7:1 knockdown exchange) in a genuine 50–50 title fight.
🧩Key Battle Areas
First, the opening calf-kick mirror—both sides drive 35–40% leg volume in R1; controlling that trade buys lateral defense for Gane and a planted base for Pereira's power lanes. Second, Pereira's R2 knockdown spike (0.33 KD/rd trend) vs Gane's counter cadence from 81" reach—who blinks first in the mid-fight pocket? Third, championship output drift: Pereira elevates to ~118% of baseline in title fights while Gane slides to ~74%, which shows up as a brutal R4–R5 split where Poatan's accuracy climbs past 70% and Gane's volume collapses toward 14 sig/rd in modeled R5 samples. Fourth, clinch/submission traps: Gane's 10% modeled sub share vs Pereira's 2%—only relevant if Poatan shoots carelessly; otherwise Bon Gamin banks optics at range.
Cross-weight context
Pereira's career metrics were built at 205 lbs; this HW interim re-benchmarks him against 22 active heavyweights. He still grades ~2–3/22 in StrAcc and #1 in KD exchange (7:1), while Gane is native HW with #2 StrDef, #3 SApM (2.23), and a 2.80 damage ratio. Overall ratings sit 65.4 vs 66.6—closer than striking composites alone imply because Poatan's edge is per-connection catastrophe, not volume accumulation.
⚖️Striking exchange math
Modeled at 100 attempts each: Pereira at 62% accuracy yields 62 nominal connections, but Gane's 62% StrDef filters to ~38 landed—with 7:1 knockdown equity per clean shot. Gane at 61% accuracy yields 61, filtered through Pereira's 54% defense to ~46 landed at lower KO threat but better counters (0.37 index) on the large South Lawn canvas.
Mutual R1 leg-kick mirror
Both open heavy on legs (Pereira ~40.2% R1 leg share; Gane ~34.4%). If Poatan wins the calf battle, Bon Gamin's counters flatten; if Gane checks and exits on angles, Poatan's power lanes shrink; if both limp into R2, the single-shot finisher historically benefits— Pereira's R2 KD peak (0.33) meets Gane's 74% championship fade.
⏱️Five-round power timeline
R1: Slight Gane (range, higher historical R1 output). R2: Pereira kill corridor (0.33 KD/rd class). R3: Gane volume crest (31.8 sig/rd) vs Poatan precision. R4: Curves cross—Gane ~24.7 sig, Pereira ~28.3 with 70.7% head indexing. R5: Gane ~14 sig at 46% acc; Pereira ~21 at 71% with 118% title-output lift—the decisive statistical split.
Alex Pereira — profile
13-3 kickboxer at HW interim; 7:1 KD ledger, 62% StrAcc, 79% TDDef. Last five: Ankalaev R1 KO, Ankalaev L5 loss, Rountree R4 KO, Prochazka R2 head kick, Hill R1 KO. 40% slow starts; 118% championship output; R2 is the documented peak danger round. Prochazka at 80" reach—essentially Gane's 81"—was solved twice.
Ciryl Gane — profile
13-2 (1 NC) natural HW; 62% StrDef, 2.23 SApM, 2.80 damage ratio. Jones/Ngannou losses came via wrestling control Pereira will not copy. +2" reach, R3 surge factory, but 74% championship output and R5 collapse (~14 sig) are the main risks against a finisher who elevates under lights. Aspinall NC (4:35 R1) showed defensive metrics held at elite HW pace before the head clash.
🏁Final Prediction
The 100-run simulation posts a lean to Gane (54%) because native heavyweight defense and reach compound over long samples, but Pereira's 46% block is almost entirely KO/TKO (38%) with only 6% decision and 2% submission—he is not built to bank 25 minutes against this profile. Gane's modal paths are decision (24%) and KO (20%) with a non-trivial 10% submission tail from late clinch traps. Market (-120 / +100) aligns closely with the model; the conviction rating stays 6/10 because one clean sequence erases all defensive advantages. Poatan wins by forcing pocket exchanges in R2 or riding the champ-output lift in R4–R5; Gane wins by owning R1 space, surviving the R2 danger window, and stacking the R3 volume blueprint before the late fade metrics activate.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: ~70% • Market implied 67.7% (fair lean to the over)
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% • Fair price near +233 → market overprices distance
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: ~20% • Implied 20.8% — basically fair, not a standout
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overstates early inside distance – Both are slow starters; R1 finish probability is only ~12%.
- • Under-models defensive wash – 62% offense vs 62% defense compresses clean connections for both.
- • Fades cross-division context – Pereira's LHW sample may understate HW power translation (or overstate durability).
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alex Pereira
Primary banked path—striking breaks that beat long, mobile targets
Low—point-fighting Gane for 25 minutes is not the brand
Speculative—only if scrambling into a dominant neck
💥Outcome Distribution - Ciryl Gane
Safe scorecards from range control + low absorption
Natural HW counters as Pereira fatigues entering deep waters
Guillotine/heavy clinch traps—mirrors database R5 sub spike
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ciryl Gane
- • Opening ten minutes: Own the calf battle to keep Pereira's hips from loading power shots.
- • Counter cadence: Straight lines off kicks; never trade symmetrically in the pocket.
- • R3 surge: Push the 31.8-sig blueprint before the late fade metrics kick in.
- • Scorecard insurance: Bank jabs and exits on the 30-foot canvas—decision (24% modeled) is a live primary path.
🎯Kill-Shot Timing - Alex Pereira
- • R2 eruption: Database peak KD window—sell feints until the shoulders load.
- • Late escalation: Leverage champ-output (+118%) while Gane's scorecards rely on fading volume.
- • Clinch elbows only safe: Avoid careless level changes that feed guillotine references.
- • KO equity (38%): One clean right hand or head kick ends the fight—do not need to win minutes if the lane opens.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Conviction Rating
Honest toss-up: validated HW defense vs singular finishing gravity
✅Supporting Factors
- • 62% StrDef paired with 2.23 SApM is battle-tested HW insulation
- • Natural mass +81" reach stack time for counters
- • R3 output curve gives a defined offensive checkpoint
- • Decision + submission mixes cover non-KO score paths
⚠️Risk Factors
- • One clean Pereira lane change erases optics leads
- • First HW camp at age 38—unknown durability delta
- • Aspinall NC leaves Gane's current ceiling fuzzy
- • 74% champ-round fade track invites chaos late
🏁Executive Summary
This pairing is a technical striker duel with mirrored slow starts and opposite fourth-act curves. Ciryl Gane's safest macro path is still range management and counter volume across five rounds, which is why the aggregate model leans 54/46 his way. Alex Pereira's rebuttal is not subtle: he compresses uncertainty into single exchanges—62% accuracy, a 7:1 knockdown ledger, and a championship-night output bump that shows up exactly when Gane's historical data goes flat. The heavy bag of unknowns is the weight jump; the known known is that neither man gives boring minutes once the leg kicks start flying.
Prediction: Narrow Gane side on volume + defense (54%) with live hedge value on Pereira inside-the-distance props (38% KO block). Market moneylines (~-120 / +100) already hug the sim; the educational edge sits in pacing which rounds each man actually wins. Bet structure should respect R2 and R5—the inflection corridors called out above.