Tommy Gantt vs Artur Minev
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Saturday, May 16, 2026 • 25 ft Octagon (small cage)
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Tommy Gantt
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Artur Minev
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Tommy Gantt
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Adam Livingston | W | Guillotine Choke (R1, 2:47) |
| 2024-10-19 | Deven Paulsen | W | TKO (R1, 4:44) |
| 2024-07-13 | Anthony Benevides | W | TKO (R2, 2:34) |
| 2024-03-30 | Josh Henry | W | TKO (R3, 0:16) |
| 2023-12-09 | Cody Carrillo | W | Guillotine Choke (R2, 0:41) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Artur Minev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Derek Campos | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:05) |
| 2024 | Junior Maranhão | W | Majority Decision (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024 | Shane Keefe | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:01) |
| 2023 | Cristobal Ibanez | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 0:28) |
| 2023 | Brandon Evans | W | Guillotine Choke (R1, 3:29) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Built from projected striking and grappling composites. Minev owns the cleaner early punching profile, but Gantt's 92 grappling composite, submission distribution, and 10.78 TD/15 DWCS signal give him the broader technical base.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights. Gantt grades higher because he has more total pro reps, a longer average duration, third-round experience, and a pressure style built around repeated grappling effort.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. The model favors Gantt because his control path is more repeatable in the small cage, while Minev's best route is higher-variance early punching damage.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
📌Fight breakdown and detailed matchup read
Booking: Tommy Gantt (11-0) meets Artur Minev (7-0) in a lightweight bout on the UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa card at the UFC APEX. Gantt has built his record on early finishes and scrambles; Minev arrives as an unbeaten prospect making his UFC debut, so the central question is how Minev's pace and defensive layers hold up once Gantt forces the first ugly exchanges.
The 25-foot cage increases contact frequency. Gantt can cut space, force clinches, and accelerate wrestling entries, while Minev needs early damage, short combinations, and immediate exits before the fight gets pinned to the fence. The matchup is not about raw UFC stat totals, because Minev has no official UFC sample yet; it is about a repeatable grappling path versus a volatile early punching path.
Gantt's 76-inch reach, front-headlock finishing history, and high grappling activity give him the clearer control route across fifteen minutes. Minev's counter is urgency: make Gantt feel power before he can settle into clinch rhythm, punish level changes, and avoid the guillotine/D'Arce chain when he scrambles.
🧩 Tommy Gantt Key Advantages
Gantt is a true dual-threat finisher: five KO/TKOs and five submissions across eleven wins, with only one decision on his ledger. That profile creates a wider band of fight-ending sequences than most debutants typically carry into a first UFC assignment. In practice, Gantt does not need to out-volume Minev—he needs to convert a smaller number of high-leverage moments.
The guillotine threat is not merely "another submission"—it is a direct counter to the kinds of reactions Minev may show while defending shots: sprawls with exposed posture, defensive elevation battles, and hand-fighting lapses while standing. Even if clean takedowns are hard to come by, Gantt can still be dangerous in the messy lane: failed shots and micro-scrambles are enough for opportunistic finishers.
A 76-inch reach at lightweight helps Gantt touch first and force respect before he crashes distance. Combined with the 25-foot cage—less room to bail out—he has structural help turning fights into early contact and clinch entries. If he uses length to set up level changes (rather than trying to win a pure kickboxing match), the physical setup aligns with his best minutes.
On the page, Gantt's takedown and submission-attempt rates pop because he constantly hunts finishes. That can be double-edged (cardio cost, overextension), but against an opponent who wants to stay upright, it defines the central threat. If even a fraction of that pace carries over at the UFC level, Minev will spend large portions of the early fight defending layers rather than calmly out-touching at range.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Gantt's worst case is entering behind naked pressure. Minev's most dangerous window is the first 90 seconds, where straight punches and hooks can meet Gantt before his clinch is organized. If Gantt is hurt early, his wrestling attempts become reactive instead of layered.
Early finishes hide information. We have less proof of how Gantt looks after multiple failed chains, behind on volume, or forced into a disciplined kickboxing structure for ten minutes. Minev has at least shown decision durability regionally, so Gantt cannot assume the first grappling layer will solve the fight automatically.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Expect Gantt to use long kicks, feints, and range touches to force Minev onto his back foot, then attack clinch ties when Minev sets his base. The small cage should encourage forward pressure, but the real objective is not just takedowns: it is forcing defensive reactions that open neck exposure, rides, and mat returns.
Gantt's cleanest win condition is pressure to fence to scramble: body lock, snap-down, guillotine/D'Arce threat, then top-position damage if Minev gives up position to escape. If the fight becomes clean kickboxing without grappling payoff, the danger shifts toward Minev's faster hands.
🚀 Artur Minev Key Advantages
Minev's clearest edge is early punching danger. Four of his seven wins have come by KO/TKO, and several of those finishes arrived in the first round. If Gantt steps in square, reaches for clinches without cover, or shoots after absorbing damage, Minev has the hand speed and finishing instinct to flip the fight before grappling control matters.
Minev is the younger and likely more explosive athlete. That matters most in the first layer of the fight: beating Gantt to the first exchange, angling after short combinations, and forcing Gantt to shoot from farther out. His 7-0 record is a smaller sample than Gantt's, but the finishing pattern shows real momentum-building ability.
Minev is not a pure puncher. Two submission wins, including a guillotine, show he can punish sloppy entries if Gantt leaves his neck exposed. That does not erase Gantt's grappling edge, but it does mean Gantt must enter behind structure instead of assuming every scramble belongs to him.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Minev's bad scenario is giving ground too easily, getting pinned near the fence, and throwing heavy counters without resetting his feet. That lets Gantt close distance, lock the body, force a scramble, and attack the neck as Minev tries to stand. The danger grows late in Round 1 and into Round 2 if Minev's first burst does not create damage.
Minev has submission ability, but voluntarily engaging guillotine and front-headlock battles with Gantt is still dangerous. Gantt's record repeatedly shows opportunistic neck attacks. If Minev wrestles back recklessly or pauses on a failed stand-up, his own aggression can become the entry point for Gantt's strongest finishing sequence.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Minev should make this a striking match before Gantt establishes grappling rhythm. The ideal sequence is short: jab or feint, two-to-three punch burst, then angle off before Gantt can attach. Calf kicks and body work can slow Gantt's pressure, but Minev cannot afford long pocket exchanges that end with his back on the fence.
Minev's cleanest win is early damage. He should make Gantt respect the right hand immediately, punish level changes with uppercuts and hooks, and prioritize wall-walks over submission hunting if taken down. If he stuffs or scrambles out of the first takedown layer, the KO/TKO window opens.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot Apex cage is one of the decisive variables in this matchup. Minev wants space to strike first, circle, reset, and make Gantt re-enter through punching danger. Gantt wants fewer exits, earlier fence contact, and more clinch-to-scramble sequences. The smaller cage does not guarantee takedowns, but it reduces Minev's escape geometry and makes Gantt's pressure more repeatable across three rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis must be handled carefully because Minev has no official UFC fight-stat sample yet. Gantt's DWCS numbers still support the tape read: low striking volume, but extreme grappling activity, 10.78 takedowns per 15 minutes, and 5.4 submission attempts per 15. Minev projects as the better pure puncher, while Gantt projects as the better grappling minute-winner and the more reliable controller.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: the first 90 seconds of Minev's power threat, Gantt's ability to turn pressure into fence contact, and neck exposure during scrambles. Minev can win if he hurts Gantt before the grappling rhythm starts. Gantt can win if he survives that early surge, forces Minev to defend layered clinch/wrestling attacks, and punishes stand-up attempts with guillotines or D'Arce-style transitions.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Tommy Gantt by submission, especially in Round 2 after the first layer of Minev's explosiveness begins to fade. Gantt's total win projection is 64%, with 32% submission, 19% KO/TKO, and 13% decision. Minev's upset lane is real at 36%, led by a 22% KO/TKO path if he lands clean early or punishes a naked entry.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 32% | Primary finish route
GOOD VALUE
Model: 22% | Best underdog path
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 58% | Both fighters finish early
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Small-sample UFC stats – Gantt has DWCS data; Minev has no official UFC sample yet.
- • Finish-heavy profiles – Both fighters have high inside-the-distance rates, supporting volatility.
- • Small-cage pressure – The 25-foot cage improves Gantt's clinch and front-headlock access.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Tommy Gantt
Pressure and control if the finish does not appear
Ground-and-pound or damage after grappling entries
Front-headlock and scramble chains are the top route
💥Outcome Distribution - Artur Minev
Best lane via early punches and entry counters
Requires range control and clean resets for 15 minutes
Guillotine threat if Gantt enters carelessly
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Artur Minev
- • First 90 seconds: Highest clean KO/TKO equity.
- • Center control: Short bursts, then angle off before Gantt attaches.
- • Entry punishment: Hooks and uppercuts when Gantt level changes.
🎯Progressive Control - Tommy Gantt
- • Fence pressure: Body locks, snap-downs, and mat returns compress Minev's exits.
- • Neck attacks: Guillotine and D'Arce threats punish reactive stand-ups.
- • Round 2 onward: Grappling accumulation becomes the more reliable path.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear stylistic edge, tempered by UFC-debut volatility
✅Supporting Factors
- • Gantt's grappling/submission path is more repeatable
- • 25-foot cage improves pressure and clinch access
- • 76-inch reach helps frame entries and front-headlocks
- • More total pro reps and more ways to win
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Both fighters are UFC-unproven over extended samples
- • Minev has real first-round KO/TKO danger
- • Gantt's official striking sample is very small
🏁Executive Summary
Gantt's sustainable path is pressure, fence contact, wrestling chains, and front-headlock danger. Minev's sustainable path is harder to maintain because it depends on clean early damage before the fight becomes a grappling exchange. The small cage materially helps Gantt close distance, while his finishing distribution gives him credible submission, ground-and-pound, and decision routes if Minev survives the first wave.
Prediction: Tommy Gantt by Submission is the official pick, most likely in Round 2. Minev's secondary outcome is a Round 1 KO/TKO if he punishes an early entry, but Gantt's reach, grappling activity, finishing variety, and small-cage advantage make him the clearer side at 64%.