Phil Rowe vs Seokhyeon Ko
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC Apex: Garcia vs Onama
Saturday, November 1, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Phil Rowe
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Ange Loosa | W | TKO (punches) (R3, 4:03) |
| 2024-06-01 | Jake Matthews | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-24 | Neil Magny | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-03 | Niko Price | W | TKO (punches) (R3, 3:26) |
| 2022-02-05 | Jason Witt | W | TKO (punches) (R2, 2:15) |
Last 5 Fights - Seokhyeon Ko
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | Oban Elliott | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-03 | Igor Cavalcanti | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-09 | Alwin Kincai | W | KO (punches) (R1, 0:48) |
| 2023-04-06 | Ryuta Sakurai | W | TKO (punches) (R2, 0:56) |
| 2022-12-30 | Jae Woong Kim | W | TKO (retirement) (R2, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62 vs 68) and Grappling Composite (41 vs 72). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🚀 Phil Rowe Key Advantages
Rowe's 80-inch reach creates a 9-inch advantage that fundamentally changes the striking math. His straight right hand becomes a dangerous intercept weapon against Ko's southpaw entries, while his height (6'3") allows for effective clinch frames and uppercuts when Ko changes levels.
The length advantage is particularly potent in the pocket, where Rowe can land clean shots while Ko struggles to close distance without eating counter strikes. This reach differential becomes crucial in preventing Ko from establishing his preferred clinch range.
Rowe's perfect finish rate (11/11 wins by finish) demonstrates exceptional fight-ending ability that transcends pure power. His late-round surges against Witt (R2 TKO), Price (R3 TKO), and Loosa (R3 TKO) show an ability to find finishing sequences even when behind on the scorecards.
This finishing instinct becomes crucial against Ko, who may win early rounds through control but remains vulnerable to Rowe's power in the championship rounds when fatigue affects takedown entries and defensive awareness.
Rowe's 3.99 significant strikes per minute creates consistent pressure that can overwhelm Ko's lower-volume approach (2.9 SLpM). This output advantage forces Ko to either engage more frequently (playing into Rowe's power) or accept being outworked on the feet.
The volume becomes particularly effective in later rounds when Ko's takedown entries slow down and Rowe can establish his rhythm and range, creating opportunities for fight-altering strikes.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Once Ko establishes his wrestling rhythm, Rowe's long limbs become liabilities against sustained top control and ground-and-pound. The 25-foot cage eliminates Rowe's ability to circle away and reset, forcing him into fence battles where Ko's chain wrestling excels.
Historical precedent shows Rowe struggling against persistent wrestlers (Magny: 15 minutes of control time, Matthews: 8 minutes), suggesting he lacks the defensive wrestling to escape once taken down in the smaller cage environment.
Rowe's 56% takedown defense becomes critically vulnerable against Ko's elite 4.0 TD/15 volume and 53% accuracy. The small cage shortens escape routes and increases the frequency of takedown attempts, creating a perfect storm for sustained grappling pressure.
Ko's southpaw stance and level changes under Rowe's right hand create additional angles that can exploit Rowe's historically porous first-level defense, making early takedowns particularly dangerous for momentum building.
Ko's minute-winning approach creates cumulative pressure that can overwhelm Rowe's moment-winning strategy. If Rowe doesn't land fight-altering shots early, Ko's consistent control time and damage limitation can build insurmountable scorecard advantages.
The judges' scoring of control time and position over pure striking volume in the smaller cage environment favors Ko's systematic approach, making it difficult for Rowe to win rounds without significant damage or finishes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize the straight right hand as the primary intercept weapon against Ko's southpaw entries, followed immediately by intercept knees and uppercuts when Ko changes levels. The key is maintaining distance where Rowe's 80-inch reach becomes most effective.
Immediate posts and wall-walks on takedown attempts to prevent Ko from establishing control time. Force pocket resets where reach advantage matters most, avoiding prolonged clinch exchanges.
Establish high-volume striking early to overwhelm Ko's lower output (2.9 SLpM) and force him into defensive mode before he can implement his wrestling game plan. Target the straight right and left hook combinations to create openings for power shots.
Use the first round to test Ko's chin and defensive awareness, looking for opportunities to land clean shots that can alter the fight dynamic before Ko establishes his grappling rhythm.
Target R2-R3 finishing windows when Ko's takedown entries slow down due to fatigue. Historical evidence shows Rowe's ability to find fight-ending sequences in championship rounds (Witt R2, Price R3, Loosa R3).
Capitalize on Ko's potential fatigue from grappling exchanges by increasing output and aggression in later rounds, looking for opportunities to land clean power shots when Ko's defensive awareness decreases.
🧲 Seokhyeon Ko Key Advantages
Ko's 4.0 takedowns per 15 minutes represents elite-level grappling volume that can overwhelm Rowe's historically porous takedown defense. His 53% takedown accuracy ensures that when he commits to entries, they're likely to succeed against Rowe's 56% TDD.
The Elliott fight blueprint (6/9 takedowns, 10:15 control time) shows Ko can execute sustained wrestling pressure that drains opponents both physically and mentally, particularly effective against rangy strikers who struggle with consistent grappling defense.
Ko's 2.0 strikes absorbed per minute demonstrates exceptional defensive awareness and damage limitation. This efficiency allows him to bank rounds even when not dominating offensively, crucial against Rowe's volume-heavy approach.
Combined with 59% striking defense, Ko can weather Rowe's early storms and implement his grappling game plan without absorbing the cumulative damage that often finishes opponents against Rowe.
The 25-foot Apex cage fundamentally favors Ko's grappling style by shortening Rowe's lateral escape routes and creating more frequent fence engagements where Ko's clinch work and takedown chains become most effective.
This environmental advantage amplifies Ko's wrestling strengths while limiting Rowe's ability to use his reach and movement to create striking opportunities, turning the cage into an ally for the grappler.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If takedown entries stall and Ko is forced to engage in prolonged striking exchanges, Rowe's power and reach become increasingly dangerous. Ko's lower output (2.9 SLpM) means he can be overwhelmed by Rowe's volume (3.99 SLpM) in pure boxing scenarios.
The 9-inch reach disadvantage becomes critical in extended striking exchanges, where Rowe can land clean shots while Ko struggles to close distance without eating significant counter strikes.
With only one UFC fight compared to Rowe's seven, Ko faces unknown variables in terms of pressure, pace, and adaptation that could affect his execution of the game plan. The step up in competition level and atmosphere may impact his performance.
Rowe's experience against elite-level wrestlers (Magny, Matthews) gives him familiarity with the type of pressure Ko will bring, while Ko must adapt to Rowe's unique combination of length, power, and finishing ability.
Rowe's intercept weapons (straight right, knees, uppercuts) become particularly dangerous if Ko's takedown entries are telegraphed or poorly timed. Early knockdowns can completely alter the fight dynamic and force Ko into catch-up mode.
Ko's tendency to commit fully to takedown attempts could leave him vulnerable to Rowe's counter-striking, especially if his entries become predictable or if Rowe successfully reads his level changes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use southpaw jab feints to set up level changes under Rowe's right hand, exploiting the orthodox vs. southpaw angle. Finish takedowns on the fence where the smaller cage provides additional leverage and prevents Rowe from circling away.
Once grounded, ride to half-guard and prioritize control time over ground-and-pound to secure rounds on the scorecards. The key is consistent position control rather than risky submission attempts.
Target 10-10:30 total control time across three rounds through consistent takedowns and mat returns. Accept positional control over submission attempts to minimize risk while maximizing scoring potential with judges.
Use the Elliott blueprint: 6/9 takedowns, 10:15 control time to systematically bank rounds. Focus on sustained pressure rather than explosive bursts to drain Rowe's energy and limit his striking opportunities.
Prioritize control over damage to avoid unnecessary risks that could lead to Rowe's fight-altering power shots. Use defensive wrestling to limit Rowe's opportunities for clean strikes while building scorecard advantages.
Weather early storms by using superior defensive metrics (59% StrDef, 2.0 SApM) and focus on implementing the wrestling game plan once Rowe's early energy expenditure creates opportunities for sustained grappling pressure.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Small Cage Dynamics
The 25 ft Apex cage fundamentally alters the spatial dynamics that typically favor rangy strikers. Rowe's 80-inch reach advantage becomes less impactful when lateral escape routes are shortened, forcing him into more frequent fence engagements where Ko's clinch work and chain wrestling excel.
This environmental factor amplifies Ko's 4.0 takedowns per 15 minutes against Rowe's historically porous 56% takedown defense, creating a perfect storm for sustained grappling pressure that can overwhelm Rowe's striking-based game plan.
🎯Technical Contrast
Rowe's moment-winning approach (3.99 SLpM, 100% finish rate) contrasts sharply with Ko's minute-winning strategy (2.9 SLpM, 2.0 SApM, 4.0 TD/15). Rowe relies on fight-altering power shots and late-round surges, while Ko banks rounds through consistent control and damage limitation.
This creates a fascinating dynamic where Rowe needs clean, fight-ending sequences to overcome Ko's systematic round-winning approach, making the early exchanges and Rowe's ability to land significant damage before Ko establishes his rhythm crucial to the outcome.
🧩Key Battle Areas
The critical battle zones center on Ko's southpaw entries under Rowe's right hand versus Rowe's intercept knees and uppercuts at level changes. Ko's ability to chain takedowns and mat returns at the fence against Rowe's wall-walking and separation techniques will determine control time.
Additionally, Rowe's straight right hand as an intercept weapon against Ko's jab feints, combined with the frequency of fence engagements in the smaller cage, creates multiple decision points where momentum can shift dramatically based on execution in these specific areas.
🏁Final Prediction
The 64-36 probability split reflects Ko's systematic advantages in minute-winning capabilities against Rowe's moment-winning knockout equity. Over 15 minutes in a confined space, Ko's sustained takedown and control approach should accumulate enough round-winning sequences to overcome Rowe's fight-altering power.
Projection: Ko 29–28/30–27 decisions most frequently, with Rowe maintaining live KO equity throughout all three rounds. The smaller cage amplifies Ko's wrestling strengths while limiting Rowe's ability to create the space necessary for his power shots, tipping the scales toward the grappler's methodical approach.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Control-heavy minute winning in small cage
FAIR VALUE
Length and power as upset lever
SLIGHT VALUE
Wrestling-control path dominates minutes
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Control undervaluation – Books may underprice Ko's TD/control in a 25 ft cage.
- • Rowe KO bias – Public leans to Rowe's finish highlights; minute-winning less visible.
- • Name familiarity – UFC tenure bias toward Rowe vs newcomer Ko despite style edge.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Seokhyeon Ko
Primary path via TD/control
Ground-and-pound or early counter lanes
Occasional back takes from rides
💥Outcome Distribution - Phil Rowe
Leverage length and intercept shots
Minute winning is less consistent
Lower submission profile overall
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Rowe
- • Intercept shots: Knees/uppercuts vs level changes
- • R2–R3 surges: Historical late finishing windows
- • Long 1–2: Keep it clean and straight
🎯Progressive Dominance - Ko
- • Chain TDs: Mat returns, wrist rides at fence
- • Risk management: Prioritize control over GNP
- • Clock dominance: Bank top time for judges
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 8/10 – Clear minute-winning path for Ko with real Rowe KO risk
Confidence Level
Control/defense advantages in small cage
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior TD volume (4.0/15) and efficiency (53%)
- • Better defensive metrics (SApM 2.0, StrDef 59%)
- • Apex cage enhances fence rides and control
- • Proven 10:15 control at UFC pace (vs Elliott)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Rowe's late KO surges
- • Defensive lapses on entries
- • Judges balancing control vs damage
- • Welterweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This welterweight clash represents a compelling stylistic contrast between Rowe's moment-winning knockout equity and Ko's systematic minute-winning approach. The 36-64 probability split accurately reflects the fundamental dynamics at play: Rowe's fight-altering power against Ko's sustained grappling control in a confined 25-foot cage.
Ko's advantages are multifaceted and synergistic: elite takedown volume (4.0 TD/15) against Rowe's porous defense (56% TDD), superior damage limitation (2.0 SApM vs 4.38), and environmental factors favoring his wrestling style. Rowe's path to victory requires clean, fight-ending sequences before Ko can establish his control rhythm.
The matchup becomes a race between Rowe's ability to land significant damage in the early exchanges and Ko's capacity to weather early storms while implementing his methodical grappling game plan. Historical precedent (Magny, Matthews) suggests Rowe struggles against persistent wrestlers, while Ko's Elliott performance demonstrates his ability to execute sustained control against rangy opponents.
Final Prediction: Ko by Decision (45% probability) represents the most likely outcome, with Rowe maintaining live KO equity (26% probability) throughout all three rounds. The smaller cage amplifies Ko's wrestling strengths while limiting Rowe's ability to create space for his power shots, tipping the scales toward the grappler's systematic approach over the striker's moment-winning potential.