Saimon Oliveira vs Luan Lacerda
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Rio
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Saimon Oliveira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | David Martinez | L | KO - Knee and Punches (R1, 4:38) |
| 2023-01-21 | Daniel Marcos | L | KO - Knee to the Body and Punches (R2, 2:18) |
| 2022-01-22 | Tony Gravely | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-09-07 | Jose Alday | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2019-12-11 | Wataru Mimura | W | Technical Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 1:14) |
Last 5 Fights - Luan Lacerda
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-03 | Da'Mon Blackshear | L | TKO - Punches (R2, 3:54) |
| 2023-01-21 | Cody Stamann | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-05-13 | Marcirley Alves | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 1:24) |
| 2021-07-16 | Tayron Pedro | W | Submission - Heel Hook (R2, 1:06) |
| 2020-10-25 | Wellington Lopes | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 4:30) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (25 vs 75) and Grappling Composite (37.5 vs 62.5). Built directly from UFCStats metrics.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on pace (SLpM), average fight time, and damage absorption. Lacerda's higher pace with similar accuracy drives his advantage.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Reflects minute-winning potential vs. fight-finishing threats.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, StrAcc, StrDef, and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Lacerda's output and accuracy edge the minutes.
🤼 Grappling Composite
TDs/15, TDAcc, TDDef, and Subs/15. Lacerda's 75% TDD is decisive; Oliveira's submission volume narrows the gap.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Saimon Oliveira Key Advantages
Opportunistic guillotines/anacondas off scrambles remain his most credible finishing path.
Lacerda's hittability creates moments to hurt into clinch entries where submissions threaten.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
38% TDD risks prolonged control minutes if entries are mistimed.
If stuck at kickboxing range, output and accuracy disadvantages reduce minute-winning potential.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Make entries messy, hunt front-headlock chains, convert momentum into control or finish.
🚀 Luan Lacerda Key Advantages
Controls fight geography, denying Oliveira's preferred submission entries.
Output and accuracy edge enable round banking at range.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Hurting exchanges into rushed level changes can expose the neck to counters.
Higher SApM means counter windows against volume sequences if defense slips.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Keep the fight at range, sprawl-and-brawl, use volume to bank minutes.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Range Dynamics
In a large cage, volume and defensive wrestling typically steer minutes. Lacerda's strong first-layer TDD should keep it upright where his output wins rounds, while Oliveira's best lanes are tied to clinch/scramble catalysts.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Lacerda owns multiple metric advantages: higher SLpM and accuracy with dramatically better takedown defense. Oliveira brings real submission danger, but it narrows rather than flips the matchup without sustained grappling phases.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Location control (sprawl-and-brawl vs scramble creation), shot selection under pressure, and early counter discipline will decide momentum swings across three rounds.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Lacerda; moments favor Oliveira. Over three rounds, location control and output lean 64–36 toward Lacerda unless Oliveira converts a scramble into a choke or finds a hurt-to-clinch sequence.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 38% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 18% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 52% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • TDD impact undervalued – 75% TDD reduces opponent's best path.
- • Minute-winning bias – Output and accuracy often price less efficiently than finish equity.
- • Submission volatility – Oliveira's guillotine/anaconda threat creates tail risk not always captured.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
💥Outcome Distribution - Oliveira
Primary finishing route
Counter-led damage sequences
Split/close optics path
🏆Outcome Distribution - Lacerda
Primary route via pace and control
Accumulation TKO potential
Lower but present sub equity
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Oliveira
- • Reactive counters: Force clinch starts off caught entries
- • Front-headlock chains: Snap-down to guillotine/anaconda
- • Scramble traps: Capitalize immediately after damaging shots
🎯Progressive Dominance - Lacerda
- • Minute winning: Jab/low kicks, maintain range
- • TDD first: Sprawl-and-brawl to deny best threats
- • Pace control: Avoid wild exchanges that open counters
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Multiple independent edges favor Lacerda; submission volatility remains.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM with solid accuracy (4.52 @ 44%)
- • Superior TDD (75%) vs opponent TDD (38%)
- • Large cage favors minute-winning styles
- • Clearer output profiles for round banking
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Lacerda hittable (7.07 SApM)
- • Oliveira submission traps in transitions
- • Bantamweight volatility in exchanges
🏁Executive Summary
The matchup leans toward Lacerda by location control and pace, while Oliveira's guillotine/anaconda series creates legitimate upset equity if scrambles materialize.
Prediction: Lacerda by Decision most often, with KO/TKO live through accumulation; Oliveira most dangerous via submission.