Jacobe Smith vs Niko Price
Welterweight Division • UFC 137
Sunday, June 29, 2025
Jacobe Smith
10-0-0
🔥 Undefeated Prospect
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Niko Price
"The Hybrid"
16-8-0
👊 Veteran Striker
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jacobe Smith
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-01 | Christien Savoie | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-23 | Jared McLoughlin | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-10 | Brian Grinnell | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 2:10) |
| 2023-10-15 | Austin Jones | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Niko Price
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-12 | Themba Gorimbo | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-01 | Alex Morono | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-08 | Robbie Lawler | L | KO - Punches (R1, 0:38) |
| 2022-12-03 | Philip Rowe | L | TKO - Punches (R3, 3:26) |
| 2021-10-02 | Alex Oliveira | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (85 vs 50) and Grappling Composite (80 vs 40). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Smith's short finishes leave stamina untested while Price shows declining performance in later rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🔥 Jacobe Smith Key Advantages
Massive 11.5 takedowns per 15min vs 1.04 with elite 88% accuracy - will control fight location
Video-game 71% accuracy vs 43% creates massive efficiency advantage in exchanges
Perfect record with 80% finish rate shows elite closing ability and winning mentality
📋 Likely Gameplan
Level-change under Price's wide hooks, chain wrestle to half-guard, ground-and-pound finish
Use superior strength and wrestling to neutralize Price's reach advantage and chaos power
⚡ Niko Price Key Advantages
4" reach advantage and 2" height edge provide significant range control if kept standing
18 UFC fights vs Smith's 1 provides massive octagon experience and adversity advantage
Creative finishing ability and one-punch knockout power can change fight instantly
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Smith's relentless takedown pressure and 88% accuracy could overwhelm Price's 53% defense
43% striking accuracy vs Smith's 71% means wasted energy in exchanges that favor grappler
📋 Likely Gameplan
Force scrambles, hunt opportunistic counters and crazy KOs before being planted on mat
Utilize reach advantage to keep Smith at distance, punish level changes with uppercuts
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🎯Style Matchup Analysis
This represents a classic grappler vs striker dynamic with heavily skewed statistical advantages. Smith's wrestling dominance is staggering - his 11.5 takedowns per 15 minutes at 88% accuracy versus Price's 53% takedown defense creates an 11-to-1 advantage in the most fight-determining metric. Combined with Smith's elite 71% striking accuracy versus Price's 43%, this suggests Smith controls every phase of combat when he chooses to engage.
⚡Experience vs Momentum
The experience differential tells two stories: Price's 18 UFC fights provide invaluable octagon awareness and adversity management, while Smith's perfect 10-0 record with 80% finish rate shows a fighter who hasn't faced real adversity yet. Price's recent form (1-4 in last 5) and tendency to absorb 5.58 strikes per minute suggests declining defensive abilities, while Smith's untested cardio against elite competition remains his only question mark.
🔥Critical Success Factors
Smith's path to victory is mathematically straightforward: utilize his massive takedown advantage to neutralize Price's 4-inch reach edge, then employ his superior ground-and-pound game that has never failed him. His 1:13 knockout of Preston Parsons in his UFC debut demonstrates his finishing ability even when fights stay standing. Price's route requires early chaos - his 10 UFC knockdowns and creative finishing ability (hammer-fists off back, up-kick KO) provide genuine upset potential if he can survive the initial wrestling onslaught.
🏁Final Prediction
While the market's -1600 line on Smith appears overextended, the underlying metrics support his heavy favoritism. The 82% prediction probability reflects Smith's overwhelming technical advantages in the two most predictive metrics: takedown success and striking differential. Price's 18% reflects his experience edge and knockout power, but his declining performance trajectory and defensive vulnerabilities against a perfect prospect suggest Smith should control this fight from the opening bell through ground-and-pound dominance inside two rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Professional betting analysis comparing model predictions with market odds
📊Market Odds
🎯Model Prediction
⚖️Value Assessment
🔍Market Analysis Breakdown
🚨Market Overreaction
The market's -1800 line on Smith appears to be a significant overreaction to his perfect 10-0 record and dominant wrestling credentials. While Smith is clearly the superior fighter, the implied 94.7% probability leaves virtually no margin for the chaos that defines MMA, especially at welterweight where knockout power is abundant. Historical data shows undefeated prospects rarely maintain such extreme favoritism against veteran UFC competition.
⚖️Model vs Market Discrepancy
Our statistical model suggests Smith should win approximately 82% of the time based on technical metrics, translating to fair odds around -456. The market's -1800 represents a massive 12.7% probability gap, creating theoretical value on Price at +900. This discrepancy stems from the market potentially overweighting Smith's undefeated record while undervaluing Price's experience edge and knockout power in a volatile division.
💡Betting Recommendations
Primary Recommendation:
Small value bet on Niko Price +900 - The 8% overlay provides sufficient edge for a calculated risk on Price's upset potential. His 10 UFC knockdowns and creative finishing ability offer legitimate paths to victory against an untested prospect.
Alternative Approach:
Smith "Inside Distance" - If available, this prop offers better value than the moneyline while still backing the likely winner. Smith's 80% finish rate suggests he rarely needs the scorecards.
Avoid:
Smith moneyline at -1800 - Catastrophic risk-reward ratio with minimal edge. Even with 95% confidence, the juice makes this mathematically unfavorable long-term.
📈Risk Management
Any Price bet should represent no more than 1-2% of bankroll given the low probability of success. The value lies in the market's overreaction rather than Price being a likely winner. This represents a classic "small bet, big payout" scenario where the mathematical edge justifies the risk despite the expected outcome favoring Smith's wrestling dominance.
💎Value Opportunities
📈Market Opportunities
🥊Method Betting
💰Best Value Plays
Strong Value: Smith by Submission (+425)
Smith's 50% submission finish rate makes this line too generous. His wrestling dominance should create abundant ground control opportunities against Price's 53% takedown defense.
Moderate Value: Price by KO/TKO (+1800)
While unlikely, Price's 10 UFC knockdowns provide legitimate upset potential. Market may be undervaluing his chaos factor and reach advantage in early exchanges.
Avoid: Under 1.5 rounds (-210)
Despite Smith's 80% finish rate, Price's experience and durability make this line too short. Better value exists elsewhere with similar probabilities.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
Complete outcome breakdown based on statistical modeling and fight dynamics
🏆Outcome Distribution - Smith
50% of his wins | Wrestling → Ground control → Submission
30% of his wins | Ground-and-pound or standing exchanges
20% of his wins | If Price shows unexpected durability
💥Outcome Distribution - Price
50% of his wins | Chaos strike or counter uppercut
25% of his wins | Unlikely given defensive vulnerabilities
25% of his wins | Desperation submission from bottom
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
📈Timeline Projections
- • 0-3 minutes: Peak danger period for early Smith takedown and finish (65% probability)
- • 3-8 minutes: Smith establishes control, Price's window for chaos diminishes (25% probability)
- • 8-15 minutes: Smith cruises to dominant decision if no finish (10% probability)
- • Price's best window: First 90 seconds before grappling pressure mounts
- • Critical moment: First takedown attempt - likely determines entire fight trajectory
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Comprehensive confidence analysis with risk factors
Confidence Level
Very high confidence based on overwhelming grappling advantage
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive takedown volume advantage (11.5 vs 1.04 per 15min)
- • Elite 88% takedown accuracy vs 53% defense
- • Perfect 10-0 record with 80% finish rate
- • Superior striking accuracy (71% vs 43%)
- • Strong submission threat (50% of wins)
- • Age advantage (29 vs 35)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Price's 4" reach advantage and height edge
- • 18x more UFC experience vs 1 fight
- • Price's 10 UFC knockdowns show power
- • Smith's untested cardio in deep water
- • MMA's inherent chaos factor
- • Market overreaction creates pressure
🏁Executive Summary
This welterweight clash represents a classic wrestler-versus-striker dynamic heavily skewed toward the grappler. Smith's 11-to-1 takedown volume advantage combined with elite accuracy creates an almost insurmountable stylistic mismatch against Price's declining defensive metrics and 53% takedown defense.
While the market's -1800 line appears extreme, the underlying fundamentals support Smith's heavy favoritism. His perfect record, 80% finish rate, and 50% submission success rate suggest he'll control fight location and dictate pace throughout. Price's path to victory requires early chaos and capitalizing on his 4" reach advantage before the inevitable takedown pressure begins.
Final Verdict: Smith by submission in Round 1 or 2. Expect early takedown success leading to ground control and eventual submission finish. The 8.5/10 confidence reflects slight concern over Smith's untested championship-level cardio and Price's experience edge, but the statistical disparities are too overwhelming to ignore. This should be a showcase performance for the undefeated prospect.