Chris Duncan vs Terrance McKinney
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC 323
Saturday, December 6, 2025
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Key Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Key Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Chris Duncan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | Mateusz Rębecki | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-22 | Jordan Vucenic | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 3:42) |
| 2024-09-28 | Bolaji Oki | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 3:34) |
| 2024-02-24 | Manuel Torres | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 1:46) |
| 2023-07-22 | Yanal Ashmouz | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Terrance McKinney
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Viacheslav Borshchev | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 0:55) |
| 2025-02-01 | Damir Hadzovic | W | KO/TKO - Punches from Back Control (R1, 2:01) |
| 2024-05-11 | Esteban Ribovics | L | KO/TKO - Head Kick (R1, 0:37) |
| 2023-10-14 | Brendon Marotte | W | KO/TKO - Knee in Clinch (R1, 0:20) |
| 2023-08-12 | Mike Breeden | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 1:25) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Chris Duncan Key Advantages
Applies steady takedown pressure (4.1 vs 3.59 per 15 min) to slow early chaos and bank control time. His wrestling-based approach becomes increasingly effective as rounds progress, allowing him to dictate pace and neutralize McKinney's explosive striking. Duncan's ability to chain takedown attempts and maintain fence control creates cumulative fatigue that compounds over 15 minutes, turning McKinney's speed advantage into a liability in later rounds.
Demonstrated 15-minute composure vs elite pressure (Rębecki UD), trending toward late-round control. His cardio advantage (avg 9:40 fight time vs McKinney's 2:25) signals an ability to maintain output through championship rounds. Duncan's recent performances show improved pacing strategies, particularly his ability to weather early storms and implement a grinding game plan that maximizes point-scoring opportunities in rounds 2 and 3. This endurance edge becomes decisive if McKinney fails to finish early.
Increasing decision share with improved round-winning habits; mixes clinch, fence work, and volume. His tactical evolution shows better fight IQ, particularly in managing exchanges and leveraging positional control to accumulate points. Duncan has developed a sophisticated clinch game that allows him to smother explosive strikers against the fence, draining their energy reserves while banking control time. His three-fight win streak validates this strategic maturation, particularly his ability to adapt mid-fight and exploit opponent fatigue patterns.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
McKinney's explosive entries can overwhelm before Duncan's pace tools take effect. The opening exchanges represent Duncan's most vulnerable window—McKinney has finished 100% of his UFC wins in round 1, often within the first 3 minutes. Duncan's 38% takedown defense is particularly exploitable if McKinney can time guillotine entries off scrambles. If Duncan absorbs early damage or gets caught in a submission chain, his grinding game plan becomes exponentially harder to execute.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press fence, alternate singles/body locks, keep head safe, force resets on favorable terms. Duncan will look to close distance early—likely behind jabs and low kicks—to smother McKinney's explosive striking lanes. Once in the clinch, he'll work body lock variations, drag McKinney to the fence, and chain short takedown attempts to accumulate control time. The key is protecting his neck during transitions while forcing McKinney into extended defensive wrestling sequences that drain his first-round explosiveness and shift momentum toward Duncan's grinding pace.
🚀 Terrance McKinney Key Advantages
Relentless early surge with clean power and snap submissions in transitions. McKinney's 100% UFC finish rate is no accident—he combines technical striking (56% accuracy, 5.78 SLpM) with opportunistic submission instincts that punish any defensive lapses. His explosive first-round output creates immediate danger zones in both striking and grappling exchanges. Recent performances (Borshchev SUB in 0:55, Hadzovic KO in 2:01) validate his ability to end fights before opponents can settle into their game plans, making survival itself a tactical victory for Duncan.
Instant front-headlock danger and transition chokes when opponents shoot or stand recklessly. McKinney's 2.25 subs per 15 minutes (nearly 4x Duncan's rate) highlights his guillotine and anaconda proficiency. His front-headlock game is particularly lethal against wrestlers like Duncan who rely on takedown entries—any poorly timed shot or sloppy stand-up creates immediate submission windows. McKinney's ability to transition from striking to grappling seamlessly means Duncan can't simply shoot for takedowns without risking his neck, limiting Duncan's primary weapon.
Controls first contact with longer arms and lands cleanly at high clip. The 2-inch reach advantage combined with superior striking accuracy (56% vs 46%) allows McKinney to dictate range and land first in exchanges. This reach edge is amplified in the 30-foot cage, giving McKinney more space to establish his preferred striking distance before Duncan can close. His ability to land clean power shots from outside Duncan's range while staying defensively sound (47% defense, absorbs only 2.58 SApM) means he can accumulate damage without exposing himself to Duncan's clinch entries.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Longer clinch or top-control spells can dampen explosiveness and create scoreboard deficits. McKinney's entire game is predicated on early finishes—his 2:25 average fight time means he's rarely tested beyond round 1. If Duncan can survive the initial blitz and force extended clinch sequences or ground control, McKinney's cardio becomes questionable. His lack of decision wins (0% in UFC) suggests underdeveloped pacing skills and point-fighting mechanics. Extended defensive wrestling drains his explosive reserves, potentially leaving him vulnerable in rounds 2 and 3.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Sprint into range, punish level changes, hunt front-chokes or power shots before the fight settles. McKinney will come out aggressively, looking to establish striking range early with his reach advantage. He'll attack Duncan's entries with front-headlock traps, discouraging takedown attempts while mixing in explosive combinations and power knees in the clinch. The goal is simple: end the fight before minute 5, either via knockout or submission. If Duncan shoots recklessly, McKinney will capitalize with guillotines; if Duncan shells up, McKinney will pour on volume to force a finish or early 10-8 round.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
Big 30-foot cage + 3 rounds set a pace-versus-power duel. Duncan's recent full-distance win over Mateusz Rębecki confirms composure and minute-winning ability, while McKinney brings high-volatility starts with genuine one-round finishing danger. Space reduces clinch collisions early but rewards structured round-winning after the first surge. The cage size is crucial here: it gives Duncan more room to evade early while circling toward eventual fence positions, but also provides McKinney with optimal striking lanes to land power shots from range. The 3-round format tilts slightly toward McKinney's finishing style over championship-distance grinding, yet Duncan's demonstrated ability to dominate middle and late rounds remains his primary path to victory if he can weather the early storm.
🎯Technical Breakdown
McKinney leads the raw tools: higher SLpM (5.78), better accuracy (56%), elite TDD (78%), and 2.25 subs/15—an early-finish arsenal. Duncan balances with endurance (avg 9:40), 4.1 TD/15 pacing, and improved decision equity. If he survives the first 3–5 minutes, Duncan's fence work and control cycles increasingly steer the fight. The statistical disparity reveals two fundamentally different fighters: McKinney excels in explosive output metrics while Duncan dominates sustainability markers. This creates a fight where McKinney must capitalize on his technical superiority in the opening frame, while Duncan needs to survive long enough to impose his grinding, accumulative style. The longer this fight goes, the more it favors Duncan's cardio and pace control; the shorter it stays, the more McKinney's finishing instincts dominate.
⚡Key Battle Areas
R1 entry management (McKinney blitz vs Duncan guard/counters); fence sequences where Duncan can slow the tempo with clinch, mat returns, and resets; final minutes where cardio, control, and scorecraft matter most. Front‑headlock exchanges strongly favor McKinney; long fence rides favor Duncan. Specifically, the fight will be won or lost in three critical phases: (1) the opening 90 seconds where McKinney's aggression meets Duncan's defensive structure, (2) clinch battles along the fence where Duncan can drain McKinney's explosiveness through body locks and short control sequences, and (3) rounds 2-3 where Duncan's improved pacing and volume can accumulate points if McKinney's finishing windows have closed. Duncan's 38% takedown defense creates constant submission vulnerability, while McKinney's zero decision wins highlight his lack of experience in extended fights.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Duncan: decision via clinch control, top time, and measured combinations; late submission windows from fatigued scrambles. McKinney: KO/TKO off fast, clean entries or guillotine/anaconda chains when catching level changes. Decision for McKinney is a low-frequency path. Duncan's most realistic victory scenario involves surviving rounds 1-2 without significant damage, accumulating control time through fence work, and banking round 3 with volume and positional dominance—mirroring his Rębecki blueprint. McKinney's path requires ending the fight early, either through explosive striking combinations that compromise Duncan's defense or capitalizing on Duncan's weak takedown defense with front-headlock submissions. If this fight reaches the judges, Duncan wins; if it ends inside the distance, McKinney likely gets his hand raised.
🏁Final Prediction
Slight lean to Chris Duncan by Decision, contingent on surviving the early sprint and turning the fight into paced clinch/control phases. McKinney remains a live threat with real first‑round finish equity. The 55-45 split reflects Duncan's proven durability and improved decision-making against McKinney's volatile finishing style. Duncan's recent form and ability to implement structured game plans over 15 minutes gives him a narrow edge, but McKinney's 100% UFC finish rate and early-round dominance means this fight carries significant upset potential. The outcome hinges entirely on Duncan's ability to survive the opening five minutes—if he does, his path to victory becomes increasingly clear; if he doesn't, McKinney adds another first-round finish to his highlight reel.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model ITD: 42% | If market ≤ 38%, strong edge
GOOD VALUE
Model: 35% | If market ≤ 28%, playable
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: ~57% | If market ≤ 50%, slight edge
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Chris Duncan
Increasing decision equity with strong pace management
Front-choke and scramble paths late
Lower pure KO equity vs durable early sprinter
💥Outcome Distribution - Terrance McKinney
Primary path via early, clean connections
Front-headlock series after chaotic entries
Rare for his style; finish-heavy profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Terrance McKinney
- • First 10 minutes: Maximum finishing danger
- • Rounds 1-2: Historic spike of KOs/subs
- • Distance control: Use reach and speed early
- • Energy management: Avoid long clinch rides
🎯Progressive Dominance - Chris Duncan
- • Round 3+: Pace and control favor Duncan
- • Accumulation: Fence clinch and rides sap pop
- • Submission threat: Opportunistic front-chokes
- • Late minutes: Scorecards lean his way
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Balanced edge with early volatility risk
✅Supporting Factors
- • Proven 15-minute output vs Rębecki
- • Higher decision equity in large cage
- • Wrestling volume to slow scrambles
- • Composure in extended exchanges
⚠️Risk Factors
- • McKinney’s explosive R1 profile
- • High submission attempt rate
- • +2" reach with clean striking
- • Lightweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This lightweight clash sets disciplined pace control against early finishing chaos. Duncan's durability and round-winning habits favor late minutes, while McKinney's first-round danger remains a serious equalizer. The stylistic dichotomy is stark: Duncan (14-2, 88% win rate, 9:40 avg) represents the evolved grinder who has learned to survive adversity and bank rounds through sustained pressure, while McKinney (17-7, 71% win rate, 2:25 avg) embodies the explosive finisher who either ends fights spectacularly early or fades when forced into extended battles. Duncan's recent victories—particularly his unanimous decision over the relentless Rębecki—demonstrate championship-level composure, but McKinney's 100% UFC finish rate (7 straight) and devastating submission game create legitimate first-round threat windows that Duncan has historically struggled to navigate.
Prediction: Slight lean Chris Duncan by Decision (55-45), provided he survives the R1 surge and turns the fight into a paced, clinch-heavy affair. The 30-foot cage and 3-round format create both opportunity and danger for Duncan—more space to evade early but less time to implement his grinding blueprint compared to five-round fights. McKinney's path to victory is narrow but potent: land early, finish fast, and avoid the attrition battle Duncan excels in. If this fight reaches round 3, Duncan likely wins on the scorecards; if it ends in round 1, McKinney's hand gets raised. The middle rounds determine everything.