Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Antonio Trocoli
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 323
Saturday, December 6, 2025
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Key Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Key Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Mansur Abdul-Malik
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Cody Brundage | D | Draw (Overturned) (R3, 0:36) |
| 2025-02-22 | Nick Klein | W | TKO - Knee and Punches (R2, 3:24) |
| 2024-11-09 | Dusko Todorovic | W | TKO - Ground Punches (R1, 2:44) |
| 2024-08-13 | Wesley Schultz | W | TKO - Elbows and Punches (R2, 3:55) |
| 2024-02-09 | Allan St-Gelais | W | KO - Punches (R1, 1:40) |
Last 5 Fights - Antonio Trocoli
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-09 | Tresean Gore | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 1:23) |
| 2024-06-22 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | L | TKO - Knee and Punches (R3, 2:27) |
| 2021-11-21 | Reslley Menezes | W | Technical Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 2:10) |
| 2019-07-09 | Kenneth Bergh | NC | Overturned by NSAC (R1, 3:57) |
| 2018-11-10 | Fabio Moreira | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite (output, accuracy, defense, durability) and Grappling Composite (TD volume/accuracy/defense, submissions).
💪 Cardio Score
Weighted by average fight duration, sustainable pace (SLpM), takedown rate, and finish rate. Reflects ability to maintain performance over time.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio scores. Offers a holistic snapshot of capability and reliability.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Key Advantages — Mansur Abdul-Malik
Elite 82% takedown defense creates a fortress that keeps the fight standing where his volume and defense advantages dominate. Trocoli's weak 11% TD accuracy—landing zero of nine career UFC attempts—signals he cannot force the wrestling exchanges needed to slow Abdul-Malik's pace. This defensive wrestling superiority is compounded by the large 30-foot cage geometry, which provides ample space for lateral movement and sprawl recoveries, further neutralizing Trocoli's already limited takedown threat.
Massive output advantage (4.27 vs 1.29 strikes per minute) combined with a 28-point defensive edge (51% vs 23% striking defense) creates consistent round-winning differentials. Abdul-Malik's ability to land over three times the volume while absorbing significantly less damage (3.49 vs 5.79 per minute) means he controls the scoring narrative throughout each round. His combination of offensive pressure and defensive awareness—demonstrated across three consecutive UFC finishes—establishes a clear path to accumulating damage and banking rounds.
Perfect 100% finish rate across eight career victories with heavy early-round clustering (five of seven wins in rounds 1-2) showcases immediate finishing instinct. His finishing power translates across multiple contexts: ground-and-pound swarms after takedowns (Todorovic R1), clinch breaks with elbows and knees (Schultz R2), and standing combinations (Klein R2). The consistency of these finishes against progressively tougher competition—from regional fighters to established UFC veterans—demonstrates reliable power that carries into the Octagon's highest level.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Must maintain guillotine awareness in chaotic clinch entries, broken takedown attempts, and scramble situations. Trocoli has shown the ability to capitalize on momentary defensive lapses with explosive front-headlock sequences, and over-commitment on offensive entries could create the split-second openings he needs to secure his most dangerous position.
Extended clinch battles against the cage could allow Trocoli to leverage his height and frame advantages with knees and collar ties, potentially slowing Abdul-Malik's pace and creating fatigue that opens late-round vulnerabilities.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish the center of the cage early with long jab and feints to draw reactions, then punish Trocoli's counters with straight punches and level changes. Use lateral movement to avoid getting trapped on the fence where Trocoli's height becomes an asset. When clinch entries occur, immediately work breaks with short elbows and create separation rather than engaging in extended exchanges.
Target the body early to slow Trocoli's already limited movement, then shift to head strikes as defensive reactions slow. Recognize finish opportunities when volume accumulation creates defensive breakdowns, transitioning smoothly from striking combinations into ground-and-pound or TKO sequences against the fence.
Key Advantages — Antonio Trocoli
Most credible upset path lies in opportunistic guillotine opportunities during scrambles and transitions. Trocoli's 0.8 submissions per 15 minutes and his front-headlock specialization create legitimate danger if Abdul-Malik over-commits on entries or gets caught in chaotic exchanges. The recent first-round guillotine finish over Gore demonstrates this threat remains sharp and explosive—capable of ending fights within 90 seconds when the position is secured. However, this weapon requires Abdul-Malik to make tactical errors or engage recklessly, which his patient, measured UFC performances suggest is unlikely.
Massive 6'6" frame provides natural leverage advantages in clinch positions, supporting powerful collar ties, plum clinch knees, and frame control against the cage. If Trocoli can successfully force Abdul-Malik into extended fence battles or trap him in the clinch, his Muay Thai background and four-inch height advantage could create opportunities for knees to the body and head. However, this strategy requires first closing the distance through Abdul-Malik's superior output and navigating around his strong first-layer takedown defense—a sequence Trocoli has struggled to execute against UFC-caliber opposition.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Catastrophic disadvantage at range: anemic 1.29 SLpM output combined with porous 23% striking defense creates compounding negative differentials in every minute of stand-up fighting. Extended periods at kicking or punching range result in Abdul-Malik landing 3x more strikes while Trocoli absorbs 66% more damage, a recipe for rapid scorecards deficits or accumulated damage leading to stoppages.
Short 5:56 average fight duration and the Magomedov collapse (R3 TKO after sustained striking volume) reveal cardio vulnerabilities when forced to absorb pressure over multiple rounds. If unable to secure early guillotine, conditioning deficits become critical.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Abandon range striking entirely and pursue immediate clinch entries from the opening bell. Use his 6'6" frame to force fence battles where Abdul-Malik must defend knees and collar ties, slowing the pace and reducing the minute-by-minute scoring differentials that accumulate into round losses. Accept short-term damage during entries as the cost of creating guillotine opportunities.
When defensive wrestling or clinch breaks create separation, immediately re-engage rather than reset to range. Each scramble is a lottery ticket for guillotine entries—the more chaos created, the higher the probability Abdul-Malik makes the positional error needed to secure the fight-ending choke. Prioritize submission attempts over positional control or ground strikes.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Matchup Dynamics
The large 30-foot cage fundamentally reshapes this matchup in Abdul-Malik's favor by amplifying the value of footwork, distance management, and defensive wrestling. With more real estate to work with, Abdul-Malik can fully leverage his superior output and first-layer takedown defense to control engagement ranges and deny Trocoli the fence-based clinch entries that represent his primary path to competitive exchanges. The cage size also reduces the effectiveness of Trocoli's height advantage, as Abdul-Malik can use lateral movement and angles to avoid being cornered or trapped against the fence where Trocoli's Muay Thai clinch work becomes most dangerous. This environmental factor directly correlates with Abdul-Malik's minute-winning profile—the more space available, the more consistently he can implement his jab-feint-counter game without getting dragged into the chaotic scrambles where Trocoli's guillotine becomes live.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals decisive advantages across multiple critical dimensions. Abdul-Malik's 231% striking output advantage (4.27 vs 1.29 SLpM) isn't merely about landing more strikes—it reflects his ability to sustain offensive pressure while maintaining defensive responsibility, as evidenced by his 66% lower absorption rate relative to output compared to Trocoli's alarming 449% absorption-to-output ratio. The 28-point striking defense gap (51% vs 23%) compounds over time, meaning Trocoli gets hit clean on nearly 80% of significant strikes thrown at him, creating cumulative damage vulnerabilities that Abdul-Malik has consistently exploited for finishes. Trocoli's most credible path—front-headlock submissions—requires first creating entry opportunities through either successful takedowns (which his 11% accuracy and 0-for-9 UFC record suggest won't materialize) or capitalizing on Abdul-Malik's offensive mistakes during striking exchanges. The problem is Abdul-Malik's patient, measured approach in his UFC run minimizes those scramble-creation moments while his 82% TDD ensures even desperation entries get stuffed.
⚡Key Battle Areas
This fight will be determined in three critical zones. First, the initial striking exchanges where Abdul-Malik's volume and range control meet Trocoli's attempts to close distance without absorbing excessive damage—a task made harder by his poor 23% striking defense. Second, the defensive wrestling moments when Trocoli inevitably attempts to force clinch entries or desperation takedowns to slow the pace; Abdul-Malik's 82% TDD versus Trocoli's 11% TD accuracy creates a mismatch that historically favors complete stuffs and quick returns to open space. Third, the accumulation phase in rounds 2-3 where Abdul-Malik's cardio score advantage (82 vs 58) and sustainable pace allow him to maintain or even increase output while Trocoli's shorter average fight duration (5:56) and history of fading late (see Magomedov R3 TKO) suggest declining effectiveness as minutes accumulate.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Abdul-Malik's path to victory involves executing his established UFC blueprint: maintain distance with jabs and feints, counter Trocoli's entries with straight punches and defensive wrestling, and accumulate damage through superior volume and defense until a finish opportunity presents itself—whether through accumulated damage leading to a referee stoppage or a clear decision victory. His 100% finish rate suggests when he gets ahead, he finds ways to close the show, typically in rounds 1-2 (seven of eight finishes). The variety in his finishing methods (elbows, knees, ground punches, standing combinations) demonstrates adaptability and multiple tools to end fights.
Trocoli's victory scenario is significantly narrower but not impossible. He must abandon his typical Muay Thai range-striking game—where he's badly outgunned—and immediately pursue high-risk clinch entries and fence wrestling to create the chaotic scrambles where his guillotine becomes live. His recent 83-second finish of Gore via standing guillotine shows this path exists, but it requires Abdul-Malik to make uncharacteristic errors or get drawn into exchanges that contradict his patient, measured approach. Trocoli's 0-2 UFC record with both losses coming via his primary defensive weaknesses (R1 submission when attempting offense, R3 TKO after absorbing volume) suggests he lacks the backup plans needed when his A-game is neutralized.
🏁Final Prediction
Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO in rounds 1-2 (56% probability) or by unanimous decision if Trocoli survives the early onslaught (22% probability). The combination of Abdul-Malik's minute-winning striking profile, elite defensive wrestling, and proven finishing ability against comparable or better competition creates multiple overlapping paths to victory. Trocoli's 21% win probability is almost entirely concentrated in his submission game (12% of total 21%), with minimal credible paths via striking finish (3%) or decision (6%). The large cage makes even that submission path harder by providing Abdul-Malik escape routes and sprawl space that wouldn't exist in the smaller Apex cage.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds (Best Available; BetOnline preferred)
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 56% | Market: depends (see best line)
GOOD VALUE
Model: 72% | Look for -200 to -260 range
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 22% | Look for +300 or better
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalued defense differential — Minute-winning via SLpM + StrDef often mispriced.
- • Overweighting Trocoli’s frame — Height doesn’t overcome distance/pace disadvantages in large cage.
- • Submission overhang — Market prices Trocoli’s guillotine threat higher than entry rates justify.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Mansur Abdul-Malik
Primary finishing route
Minute-winning over 3 rounds
Low, but not zero
💥Outcome Distribution - Antonio Trocoli
Limited power translation at UFC level
Needs control minutes he rarely secures
Most credible upset path
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Antonio Trocoli
- • Early clinch traps: Hunt front-headlock counters while fresh
- • Fence work: Create chaos to blunt speed/volume
- • Control bursts: Short sequences to bank minutes
🎯Progressive Dominance - Mansur Abdul-Malik
- • Range discipline: Jab, feints, and straight counters
- • Defensive layers: First-layer TDD keeps it standing
- • Accumulation: Damage adds up into late R2–R3
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong confidence given multiple aligned edges
✅Supporting Factors
- • Minute-winning striking differential
- • 82% TDD vs 11% TD accuracy
- • Large 30ft cage favors range control
- • 100% finish rate with early clustering
- • Superior defensive metrics
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Front-headlock submissions in scrambles
- • Over-commitment on entries
- • Power knees in clinch from taller frame
- • Variance in 3-round pacing
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight matchup represents a stark contrast between an ascending prospect with proven UFC-level execution and a struggling veteran searching for his first Octagon victory. Abdul-Malik's combination of pace (4.27 SLpM), defense (51% StrDef, 82% TDD), and finishing reliability (100% finish rate with seven KO/TKO wins) provides him control over every phase of the fight—from initial range striking to defensive wrestling to late-round accumulation. His technical score advantage (76 vs 48) and cardio edge (82 vs 58) aren't merely statistical margins; they represent fundamental capability gaps that manifest in sustained minute-winning performance and the ability to maintain effectiveness across all three rounds.
Trocoli's path is narrowed to high-variance opportunistic submissions—specifically front-headlock guillotines during scrambles—a scenario that requires Abdul-Malik to abandon the patient, measured approach that has defined his UFC success. While the recent Gore finish demonstrates Trocoli's guillotine remains a live weapon capable of ending fights in under 90 seconds, his 0-2 UFC record, poor defensive metrics (23% StrDef, 50% TDD), and tendency to fade when unable to impose his game early (see Magomedov R3 collapse) suggest he lacks the tools to create those scramble opportunities against elite defensive wrestling. The large 30-foot cage amplifies these challenges by providing Abdul-Malik more space to implement his range-control game and sprawl recoveries, while limiting Trocoli's ability to trap him against the fence.
Prediction: Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO in rounds 1-2 or by unanimous decision over the full three rounds. Our model assigns 79% win probability to Abdul-Malik—with 56% via knockout and 22% via decision—reflecting the multiple overlapping advantages and proven finishing ability. Trocoli's 21% probability heavily concentrates in submission finish (12%), with negligible paths via knockout (3%) or decision (6%). The conviction rating of 8.5/10 reflects confidence in Abdul-Malik's minute-winning profile, the favorable cage dynamics, and the clear technical superiority, tempered only by MMA's inherent submission variance and the respect due to Trocoli's guillotine threat. Expect Abdul-Malik to control distance, accumulate damage, and find a finish or dominate the scorecards across three rounds of increasingly one-sided action.