Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC 323
Saturday, December 6, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Champion Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Challenger Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Brandon Moreno
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Steve Erceg | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-02 | Amir Albazi | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-24 | Brandon Royval | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-08 | Alexandre Pantoja | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-01-21 | Deiveson Figueiredo | W | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Tatsuro Taira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | Hyun Sung Park | W | Submission - Face Crank (R2, 1:06) |
| 2024-10-12 | Brandon Royval | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-15 | Alex Perez | W | KO/TKO - Leg Injury (R2, 2:59) |
| 2023-12-09 | Carlos Hernandez | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 0:55) |
| 2023-07-08 | Edgar Chairez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (84 vs 82) and Grappling Composite (76 vs 79). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Brandon Moreno Key Advantages
Superior striking defense (60% vs 47%) and elite takedown defense (64% vs 45%) create a formidable defensive wall. Moreno's ability to evade strikes while maintaining forward pressure allows him to control range without absorbing excessive damage. His TDD success against elite wrestlers like Amir Albazi demonstrates the reliability of his first-layer sprawls—critical for stuffing Taira's chain-wrestling entries.
With multiple title fights and five-round wars under his belt, Moreno brings a veteran's composure that younger fighters struggle to replicate. His ability to maintain round-winning pace deep into championship rounds is particularly valuable in the large cage environment where footwork and ring generalship become paramount. Recent victories over Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi showcase his ability to grind out decisions against diverse styles.
Moreno's significantly higher striking volume (3.96 vs 2.87 per minute) creates constant scoring opportunities and forces opponents to respect his output. This pace advantage is especially potent in a large cage where fighters have more room to build rhythm. The volume also serves a defensive purpose—keeping pressure on Taira discourages extended grappling clinches and makes takedown entries more costly. In three rounds, this sustained pace can accumulate clear scoring advantages on the judges' scorecards.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Taira's chain wrestling and back-take sequences represent Moreno's most dangerous positional nightmare. If Taira manages to secure extended back control—even for 90-120 seconds per round—he can steal rounds through control time while actively hunting rear-naked chokes and face cranks. Moreno's 0.40 submission attempts per 15 minutes suggest he's not accustomed to attacking from bottom positions, meaning prolonged ground exchanges favor Taira's offensive grappling. The psychological pressure of defending constant submission threats can drain energy faster than striking exchanges, potentially compromising Moreno's late-round pace advantage.
If Taira wins first contact consistently and secures clean body-lock entries off strike exchanges, Moreno can be forced into prolonged defensive shells along the fence where his striking volume advantage evaporates. The large cage, while generally favoring distance fighters, can become a trap when a wrestler successfully cuts angles and pins opponents to the perimeter. Once pressed against the cage, Moreno's ability to circle and rebuild rhythm diminishes, and Taira's chain-wrestling sequences become exponentially more dangerous. Multiple failed takedown defenses in a single round can shift judges' perception even if the actual ground control time remains moderate.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Moreno's primary tactical objective centers on beating Taira's first layer of takedown entries and immediately resetting to center cage where space and footwork advantages emerge. This requires active sprawling on initial shots, hand-fighting in the clinch to prevent body-lock consolidation, and explosive pivots off the fence when pressured. Once separation is created, rebuild striking rhythm with educated jab-low kick combinations that score points while maintaining defensive posture. The large cage becomes a weapon here—constant lateral movement and angle changes make sustained grappling pressure difficult to maintain. Focus on winning the first 90 seconds of each round standing to establish positional dominance before Taira can implement his chain-wrestling game.
Strategic body targeting serves dual purposes: accumulating damage that discourages explosive level changes while maintaining a sustainable pace that doesn't drain cardio reserves. Target liver and solar plexus with straight punches and knees in space, forcing Taira to respect body attacks and elevate his guard. After successfully defending early scrambles, deliberately raise pace in the second half of each round—push striking volume from 4 per minute to 5+ per minute to create scoring separation on judges' cards. Mix in occasional low-percentage takedown attempts (even if unsuccessful) to keep Taira's wrestling timing disrupted and prevent him from timing entries off pure striking rhythm. The goal is to win minutes through accumulated volume rather than explosive moments, banking rounds through consistent offensive output paired with reliable defense.
🚀 Tatsuro Taira Key Advantages
Taira's elite takedown volume (3.21 vs 1.51 per 15 minutes) combined with solid conversion rate (48% accuracy) creates relentless grappling pressure throughout exchanges. His ability to chain multiple attempts together means even high-percentage defensive wrestlers eventually get taken down. Once on top, Taira excels at maintaining control and advancing positions, as evidenced by his recent face crank victory over Hyun Sung Park where he dominated from mount and back control.
With 1.70 submission attempts per 15 minutes and 47% of career victories coming via tap, Taira presents a constant finishing threat from multiple positions. His proficiency with chokes, face cranks, and armbars makes him dangerous whether attacking from top control or scrambling from bottom guard. The threat is particularly acute in the first two rounds where his explosiveness is at its peak—70% of his finishes occur before the 10-minute mark, catching opponents before they can settle into defensive shells.
Taira's finishing profile heavily favors early aggression—approximately 70% of his stoppage victories occur in the first two rounds. This fast-start approach is ideal for three-round fights where early momentum can be decisive. His ability to explode into finishes from seemingly controlled positions means Moreno can't afford passive moments. Whether through ground strikes, submissions, or accumulative damage, Taira's early finishing threat forces opponents to expend significant energy defending in the critical opening minutes.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Extended range boxing exchanges play directly into Moreno's strengths while neutralizing Taira's primary weapons. If forced to strike at distance for prolonged stretches—particularly 3+ minutes per round—Moreno's superior striking volume (3.96 vs 2.87) and better striking defense (60% vs 47%) create accumulating scoring advantages that become difficult to overcome. Taira's lower striking output means he can't match Moreno's pace in pure boxing exchanges, and his weaker defensive metrics mean he absorbs more clean shots in the process. The large cage exacerbates this problem: more space means Moreno has more room to establish his preferred distance, making takedown entries require longer, more telegraphed attacks that the veteran can read and counter.
Moreno's championship-tested cardio and pacing actually improve as fights progress into later phases—his 17:08 average fight duration reflects comfort in extended battles. Conversely, Taira's 11:48 average suggests less experience maintaining elite performance deep into rounds. If early finishing attempts fail and the fight extends into competitive third-round exchanges, Moreno's conditioning advantage becomes pronounced. Prolonged scrambles and failed takedown sequences tax Taira's explosive reserves faster than they drain Moreno's steady-state cardio. The Brandon Royval loss exposed this vulnerability: when forced into a five-round pace battle, Taira faded noticeably in rounds four and five. Even in a three-round format, defensive scrambles in rounds one and two can compromise the explosiveness needed for round-three finishes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Taira's tactical blueprint requires aggressive initiation of clinch exchanges rather than waiting for Moreno to engage. Use low kicks and teeps to provoke defensive counters, then time level changes underneath returning strikes when Moreno's weight shifts forward. Once hips are secured in body-lock or single-leg positions, immediately chain multiple takedown attempts without resetting to striking—the goal is to wear down even elite takedown defense through relentless volume (3+ attempts per engagement). Upon securing top position, prioritize advancing to mount or back control within the first 30 seconds before Moreno can establish defensive frames. Ride top time aggressively, mixing ground strikes with submission setups to keep Moreno reacting rather than escaping. Target 90+ seconds of control per round to bank scoring even if finishes don't materialize.
The critical tactical adjustment centers on preventing clean stand-ups once top position is achieved. When Moreno initiates escape sequences—whether through shrimping, wall-walking, or explosive stand-ups—immediately re-attach with body locks or leg rides before full separation occurs. Cycle mat returns aggressively: as soon as Moreno's hips rise, drag or trip him back down, resetting control time and forcing him to expend additional energy on repeated escape attempts. This attrition strategy compounds over three rounds; even if individual control sequences last only 45-60 seconds, forcing Moreno to escape 4-5 times per round drains his defensive reserves and creates openings for back-takes. The veteran's experience in scrambles works both ways—he knows how to escape, but the energy cost of constant defensive wrestling accumulates faster than offensive striking volume.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Fight Dynamics
This matchup embodies the classic veteran-versus-prodigy narrative that has defined many memorable UFC encounters. Moreno, at 31 with extensive championship rounds and title fight experience, brings the battle-tested composure and ring generalship that only comes from years at the elite level. His defensive layers—60% striking defense paired with 64% takedown defense—create a fortress that has frustrated top contenders. The large 30-foot cage amplifies these advantages, giving Moreno the space to implement his preferred game of sustained striking control and tactical resets. Conversely, Taira at 25 represents youthful explosiveness in its purest form: fast-twitch grappling entries, dynamic scrambles, and the fearlessness to attack submissions from any position. His early finishing tendencies create critical swing moments in rounds one and two where veteran patience can be punished by prodigy aggression.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical profile reveals a fascinating clash of strengths that creates genuine tactical complexity. Moreno's defensive metrics tell a compelling story: 60% striking defense means he evades three of every five significant strikes thrown at him, while his 64% takedown defense has proven capable of stuffing even elite wrestlers. Combined with his superior striking volume (3.96 vs 2.87 significant strikes per minute), these numbers paint the picture of a volume-puncher who controls range without paying heavy defensive taxes. However, Taira's grappling profile presents a formidable counter-narrative. His 3.21 takedowns per 15 minutes—more than double Moreno's offensive output—creates constant threat of level changes. The 1.70 submission attempts per 15 minutes (4.25x higher than Moreno's 0.40) means every scramble and ground exchange carries finishing danger. The fight's trajectory will largely be determined by first-contact success: if Moreno's initial defensive layers hold and he can reset to space, his volume accumulates; if Taira breaches those first layers and secures top position, control time and submission threats shift the scoring calculus.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Three distinct battle areas will determine this flyweight clash. First, the initial exchanges where Taira attempts to close distance and initiate clinch positions while Moreno works to maintain space with jabs and low kicks—whoever controls this phase sets the tempo. Second, the grappling transitions where Taira's chain wrestling and mat returns clash directly with Moreno's sprawl-and-brawl defense and ability to create separation after defensive sequences. The large 30-foot cage becomes a critical environmental factor here, increasing the importance of footwork, cage cutting, and first-layer defense. More space means Moreno has more room to circle away from danger, but it also gives Taira more angles to shoot from. Third, the scrambles and positional battles on the ground where Taira's back-taking ability and submission threats meet Moreno's defensive awareness and scrambling skills honed through countless championship rounds. Control of these three phases—striking distance, transition moments, and ground positioning—will dictate who emerges victorious.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Each fighter possesses a clear blueprint for victory, though execution under fire remains the ultimate test. Moreno's path to victory is built on defensive fundamentals and sustained volume: successfully stuffing Taira's initial takedown chains forces reset opportunities where he can circle to open space, rebuild his striking rhythm with jab-low kick combinations, and accumulate significant strike differentials that add up on scorecards. His experience in championship rounds means he knows exactly how to win minutes without taking unnecessary risks—targeting the body to discourage level changes, mixing in occasional takedown attempts of his own to keep Taira honest, and maintaining a pace that gradually drains younger fighters' explosive reserves. The large cage is his ally here, providing escape routes and angles that make sustained grappling pressure more difficult to maintain.
Taira's victory blueprint runs through relentless grappling pressure and early finishing windows. His path requires winning the first-contact battle consistently: securing clean body-lock entries off strike exchanges, immediately chaining to mat returns when Moreno stands, and advancing to dominant positions (mount, back control) where his submission threat becomes acute. His 1.70 submission attempts per 15 minutes aren't just numbers—they represent a genuine finishing mentality that transforms control time into tap-out opportunities. Whether through rear-naked chokes, face cranks, or arm attacks, Taira has proven he can finish from anywhere. In a three-round format, his early finishing profile becomes particularly dangerous: if he can secure meaningful grappling control in rounds one and two, he doesn't need to maintain that pace for 25 minutes. The challenge lies in breaching Moreno's proven defensive layers before the veteran's pace and ring control accumulate insurmountable scoring advantages.
🏁Final Prediction
The final prediction carries a slight but meaningful lean toward Brandon Moreno, anchored primarily in his superior distance management tools and proven ability to control pace in championship-caliber competition. In the large 30-foot cage environment, his combination of 60% striking defense and 64% takedown defense creates multiple defensive layers that have historically frustrated even elite grapplers. The statistical edge in striking volume (3.96 vs 2.87 per minute) provides a reliable scoring mechanism across three rounds—even if individual minutes are competitive, the accumulation of clean strikes without excessive return fire tends to tilt scorecards toward the higher-volume fighter. Additionally, Moreno's experience in managing fight-ending scenarios and championship pressure manifests as superior late-round composure; he knows how to protect leads and avoid unnecessary engagement when ahead.
However, this is far from a lock. Taira's early grappling success rate creates legitimate paths to flip rounds quickly and dramatically. If he can secure clean takedowns in rounds one and two and advance to back control, his submission threat becomes the dominant narrative—judges reward control time and finishing attempts, especially when paired with positional dominance. The 40% probability assigned to Taira reflects both his explosive skill set and the genuine variance inherent in early grappling exchanges. In three-round fights, early momentum carries enormous weight; a single successful back-take sequence in round one fundamentally changes Moreno's risk calculus for the remainder of the bout. The razor-thin 60-40 split acknowledges that while defensive fundamentals and pacing favor the veteran, youthful explosiveness and grappling creativity can overcome experience through dynamic finishing moments.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 19% | Market: ~19%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: ~40%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 62% | Market: 62%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Moreno’s distance control undervalued — Big-cage dynamics not fully priced in.
- • Taira’s early submission equity respected — But late-fight control less reliable.
- • Decision-heavy outcomes likely — Favours Moreno’s pacing and defense.
- • First-contact wrestling is the swing factor — High variance early.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Brandon Moreno
Chokes in scrambles | Less frequent path
Defense and volume edge minutes
Accumulation or late attrition
💥Outcome Distribution - Tatsuro Taira
Less common but live early
Control-heavy rounds from top
Back-take sequences into chokes
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Tatsuro Taira
- • First 7 minutes: Best chance to secure top and threaten back.
- • Initiate clinch off kicks: Enter on hips under counters.
- • Mat returns: Avoid clean stand-ups.
- • Early subs: RNC opportunities if back is exposed.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Brandon Moreno
- • Round 2-3: Pace and defense accumulate scoring moments.
- • Sprawl layers: Beat first contact, circle off fence.
- • Counter windows: Jab/cross punish level changes.
- • Late clinch breaks: Reset and rebuild volume.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid lean with early-wrestling variance
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior striking defense for Brandon Moreno
- • Higher SLpM and big-cage space
- • Five-round experience and composure
- • Strong first-layer TDD
- • Proven recovery in chaotic exchanges
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Tatsuro Taira chain-wrestling and back-takes
- • Early submission threat levels
- • Scramble variance along the fence
- • Potential judging optics from top control
- • Flyweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This flyweight clash at UFC 323 represents a compelling tactical study in contrasting skill sets: Brandon Moreno's veteran distance management and defensive layering versus Tatsuro Taira's explosive grappling and early finishing ability. The large 30-foot cage serves as a critical environmental variable that amplifies the importance of footwork, first-layer defense, and spatial awareness. For Moreno, the additional space provides more room to circle away from takedown threats, reset after defensive sequences, and rebuild striking rhythm—all advantages that slightly favor the striker-defender over a three-round window. His proven ability to maintain 3.96 significant strikes per minute while defending 60% of incoming strikes creates a sustainable scoring model that doesn't rely on explosive moments but rather on consistent volume accumulation. The six-year age advantage for Taira matters, but Moreno's championship mileage has refined his defensive instincts to a level that raw athleticism alone struggles to overcome.
The quantitative analysis yields decisive, data-aligned probabilities: Brandon Moreno 60% win probabilityversus Tatsuro Taira 40% win probability. These numbers translate to mathematically consistent betting lines: Moneyline reference Brandon Moreno -150 / Tatsuro Taira +150 (no-vig). The proposition markets align with these probabilities: Goes the Distance -138 (58%) reflecting the high likelihood of a decision outcome given Moreno's defensive profile and Taira's finish-or-control tendencies; Total Over 2.5 Rounds -163 (62%) capturing the expectation that defensive layers will prevent early stoppages. The most compelling prop values emerge in method-specific markets: Brandon Moreno by Decision +150 represents his most probable victory path (40% of total outcomes), while Tatsuro Taira by Submission +426 captures his most dangerous finishing threat (19% of total outcomes). These odds embed the strategic reality: Moreno grinds out decisions through volume and defense; Taira hunts finishes through grappling dominance.
Final Prediction: The fight's outcome hinges on time-weighted control of critical phases. If Moreno maintains distance for approximately 10-12 minutes of the scheduled 15, his striking volume and defensive efficiency should accumulate clear scoring advantages that result in a unanimous decision victory. The large cage geography supports this scenario—more space means more escape routes, more angles to circle away from pressure, and more opportunities to reset after defensive sequences. However, if Tatsuro Taira can secure back control or sustained top position for 3-4 minutes per round, the momentum shifts dramatically. His submission threat transforms grappling control from merely positional dominance into active finishing sequences that judges reward heavily. The narrow 60-40 projection acknowledges this genuine uncertainty: Moreno's defensive fundamentals and championship pacing create a sustainable path to victory, but Taira's explosive grappling and early finishing windows provide legitimate swing opportunities that can flip the script in seconds. Expect a competitive, technical battle where first-contact success in grappling transitions determines who dictates the pace and who's forced to react.