Jan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov
Men's Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC 323
Saturday, December 6, 2025
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Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Finisher Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jan Blachowicz
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Carlos Ulberg | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-29 | Alex Pereira | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-10 | Magomed Ankalaev | D | Draw - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-05-14 | Aleksandar Rakic | W | TKO - Knee Injury (R3, 1:11) |
| 2021-10-30 | Glover Teixeira | L | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 3:02) |
Last 5 Fights - Bogdan Guskov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-26 | Nikita Krylov | W | KO - Punches (R1, 4:18) |
| 2025-01-18 | Billy Elekana | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 3:33) |
| 2024-04-27 | Ryan Spann | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 3:16) |
| 2024-02-10 | Zac Pauga | W | KO - Punches (R1, 3:38) |
| 2023-09-02 | Volkan Oezdemir | L | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 3:46) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Emphasizes output, accuracy/defense, and complete skill balance.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate, takedown rate, and finish profile. Measures endurance and ability to maintain pace.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Holistic view combining skill depth with physical conditioning and performance stability.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Captures overall offensive output and defensive quality.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Derived from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates wrestling control and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Jan Blachowicz Key Advantages
Effective chain wrestling and top control slow the fight to his pace, leveraging his 1.03 TD15 rate and elite 69% takedown defense. Fence rides, mat returns and half‑guard smash positions convert entries into long control phases that bank minutes and blunt Guskov's striking rhythm. His ability to chain attempts together— even when the first shot is stuffed—wears down opponents' defensive focus over time. Once established on top, Blachowicz's pressure from half-guard and side control neutralizes explosive athletes, grinding out rounds through positional dominance rather than frantic submission hunting.
Former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion with proven ability to perform in high-stakes title fights and deep waters. His championship pedigree includes victories over elite competition and the mental fortitude to navigate close, pressure-filled rounds. Blachowicz has proven in 5‑round wars that he can manage pace effectively, stay composed in swing minutes, and execute his game plan even when fatigued. This veteran composure allows him to avoid panic wrestling or wild striking exchanges, instead methodically implementing his pressure-grappling system round after round. Against explosive finishers like Guskov, this experience becomes a critical intangible advantage.
Blachowicz's veteran shot selection allows him to time takedown entries off striking exchanges rather than telegraphing naked shots. He uses low-kick and counter cadence to create openings, mixing feints with his right hand to draw high guards before dropping levels on resets. This approach converts stand-up exchanges into wrestling cycles organically, preventing opponents from sitting comfortably at range. Once inside, his fence-ride game is elite—he can pin opponents against the cage, hand-fight for wrist control, and work mat returns even when the initial shot is defended. This constant pressure to grapple disrupts rhythm for pure strikers and forces them to burn energy on defensive wrestling rather than offensive striking.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Guskov can maintain center control and utilize the 30-ft cage to circle away from pressure, Blachowicz struggles to close distance safely. Guskov's 55% striking accuracy and 4.17 SLpM output at range can rack up significant strike differential across rounds, forcing Jan to either eat damage closing distance or accept losing rounds on volume. The larger cage makes it harder to trap Guskov against the fence for clinch entries.
The first 7-8 minutes are particularly dangerous as Guskov's front-loaded finishing threat (13 R1 wins) means maximum power and aggression early. If Blachowicz gets caught clean during takedown entries or while setting up his wrestling, he risks early finish or accumulating damage that compromises his cardio and wrestling effectiveness in later rounds. Failed takedown attempts in this window could shift momentum decisively.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Prioritize fence rides and cage-work over risky open-mat doubles that expose him to guillotines or counters. Once in the clinch, establish underhooks, hand-fight for wrist control, and work methodical mat returns. Even if the initial takedown is stuffed, maintain body-lock position to accumulate ride time and cool the striking pace. This grinding approach banks control minutes without risking explosive exchanges, neutralizing Guskov's power advantage.
Use low-kick series to chop Guskov's lead leg and slow his lateral movement, then time reactive doubles when he's stationary or resetting after combinations. Mix striking looks— jab to the body, feint the right hand—to create openings for level changes rather than naked shots. This approach converts stand-up exchanges into wrestling sequences organically, making it harder for Guskov to time defensive guillotines or sprawls.
🚀 Bogdan Guskov Key Advantages
Guskov brings elite striking output at 4.17 SLpM—significantly above the Light Heavyweight average—combined with sharp 55% accuracy. His compact power combinations land clean and carry genuine knockout threat, evidenced by his 100% finish rate across 18 career victories. Unlike volume-punchers who sacrifice precision for output, Guskov maintains both, creating constant danger in exchanges. His 0.6 knockdowns per fight average demonstrates his ability to hurt opponents with single shots, making every clean exchange a potential fight-ending moment. This power-precision combination forces opponents to respect his hands, opening defensive gaps he can exploit.
Guskov's finishing profile is heavily front-loaded, with 13 of his 18 career wins coming in Round 1 alone. This early-danger pattern creates immense pressure on opponents from the opening bell, as they know they must survive his initial onslaught to reach later rounds where his gameplan becomes less proven. His 100% finish rate means he's never needed the judges—he either finishes fights or loses them. This creates a binary dynamic: if Blachowicz can weather the early storm and drag Guskov into unfamiliar deep waters, the advantage shifts dramatically. But survive the first 10 minutes, and Guskov's threat level remains elite in a way few fighters can sustain.
With 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes, Guskov possesses a sneaky reactive submission game that punishes sloppy wrestling entries. His guillotine threat—demonstrated in his finish of Billy Elekana—creates a defensive chess layer for opponents attempting takedowns. This forces wrestlers to be more cautious with their shot selection and head position, slowing their entries and reducing their effectiveness. Even when Guskov doesn't finish the choke, the threat alone can deter takedown attempts or allow him to create scrambles back to the feet. Against a chain-wrestler like Blachowicz, this opportunistic submission threat adds a layer of danger to every level-change, potentially keeping the fight standing longer than expected.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Blachowicz successfully establishes prolonged fence rides or top control, Guskov's striking advantages become irrelevant. With zero offensive wrestling (0.00 TD15), he lacks the ability to initiate his own grappling exchanges or dictate position once grounded. Extended control time not only nullifies his power- striking but also taxes his untested cardio (avg 4:52 fight duration), potentially compromising his explosiveness in later rounds if the fight reaches deep waters.
Blachowicz's veteran clinch-work can neutralize Guskov's striking output for extended periods. Hand-fighting and body- lock positioning against the fence reduces Guskov's ability to generate power or land clean combinations, forcing him into low-output grinding sequences that don't suit his finishing style. Even if no takedown materializes, these stalling positions can cool the pace and shift judges' perception toward control over striking aggression.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish center-cage positioning immediately to maximize the 30-ft cage's real estate for lateral movement. Use jab-to-chest setups into compact 2-3 punch combinations, targeting head and body to maintain output without over-committing. Circle off after landing to prevent Blachowicz from establishing clinch position. Force the veteran to chase and close distance repeatedly, banking early rounds on volume and clean striking before Blachowicz can impose his grinding pace.
Prioritize sprawl-and-separate defensive wrestling over opportunistic guillotine attempts. When Blachowicz shoots, get hips back, frame on the head, and create immediate separation rather than engaging in prolonged grappling exchanges. Only commit to front-choke submissions when head and arm control is clearly established—otherwise, disengage and reset to striking range where advantages lie. Avoid getting drawn into fence-work battles that favor the veteran's control game.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Macro Dynamics
This matchup embodies the classic veteran grappler vs early‑finishing striker dynamic that has defined many memorable Light Heavyweight contests. The 30‑ft cage—larger than the standard 25‑ft Octagon—stretches neutral time and modestly favors Bogdan Guskovin clean range moments, giving him more room to circle, reset, and avoid cage-trap situations. Conversely, once Jan Blachowicz establishes clinch control or initiates mat returns, ride time and fence-pinning shift control minutes decisively back to the veteran. Early momentum is inherently volatile given Guskov's front-loaded finishing threat (13 R1 wins), but as the bout stabilizes past the initial exchanges, location control—who dictates where the fight takes place—becomes the paramount factor in scoring and finishing sequences. Blachowicz's ability to weather early storms and grind into later rounds will be tested against Guskov's unproven deep-water cardio and untested decision-making in swing rounds.
🎯Technical Contrast
The technical breakdown reveals two fighters with non-overlapping skill peaks.Bogdan Guskov holds a commanding output/accuracy edge with 4.17 SLpM and 55% striking accuracy—both metrics significantly above divisional averages—complemented by genuine knockout power (0.6 KD per fight). His striking composite of 6.8/10, while lower than Blachowicz's defensive metrics, reflects elite offensive threat in clean exchanges. Conversely, Jan Blachowicz owns the grappling and control lanes with 1.03 TD15 (infinite advantage over Guskov's 0.00) and elite 69% takedown defense, yielding a 7.1/10 grappling composite. These divergent strengths create a clear path-dependency: range exchanges where both fighters can operate cleanly heavily favor Bogdan Guskov's power-precision game, while extended fence/wrestle phases—where striking output is neutralized and positional control scores—massively favor Jan Blachowicz. The fighter who can impose their preferred environment for longer cumulative minutes across three rounds will likely secure the victory.
⚡Fight Pacing and Round Evolution
The temporal dynamics of this matchup create distinct phases with shifting advantages. Round 1 represents Guskov's maximum threat window—his 13 first-round finishes demonstrate exceptional early aggression and power, creating immense pressure on Blachowicz to survive the initial storm. If Jan can weather this opening barrage without significant damage, Round 2 becomes a transitional phase where Guskov's output remains dangerous but his untested cardio begins facing scrutiny. By Round 3, if the fight reaches this point, advantages shift dramatically toward Blachowicz: his proven championship conditioning (8.2/10 cardio score vs Guskov's 5.8/10) and ability to maintain 1.03 TD15 rate without gassing give him increasing control. The psychological element cannot be ignored— Guskov has never needed judges, meaning his decision-making and pacing in a close Round 3 remains uncharted territory, while Blachowicz has extensive experience grinding out swing rounds under championship pressure.
🔄Stylistic Chess Match: Offensive vs Defensive Wrestling
The wrestling dynamic presents a fascinating inversion of typical grappler-striker matchups. While Blachowicz possesses clear offensive wrestling advantages (1.03 TD15 vs 0.00), Guskov's 1.1 SubPer15 and demonstrated guillotine threat create a defensive chess layer that complicates straightforward takedown attempts. This forces Blachowicz into a calculated risk-reward decision on every level-change: commit aggressively and risk front-choke danger, or maintain cautious head position and sacrifice takedown efficiency. The 69% vs 57% takedown defense differential favors Blachowicz on paper, but Guskov's reactive submission game—proven against Billy Elekana—means even stuffed takedowns can create scramble opportunities back to striking range. This subtle defensive wrestling threat allows Guskov to deter some wrestling attempts and extend time in his preferred striking environment, potentially tilting cumulative minutes toward range exchanges despite Blachowicz's superior offensive grappling credentials.
⚖️Judging Criteria and Scoring Scenarios
The potential for divergent round scoring based on judging criteria adds uncertainty to decision outcomes. Under modern Unified Rules emphasizing "effective striking and grappling" with damage as the primary consideration, close rounds could swing based on whether judges prioritize Guskov's clean power shots and knockdown threat or Blachowicz's control time and positional dominance. If Blachowicz secures 2-3 minutes of cage control per round but absorbs 15-20 clean significant strikes in the remaining time, scoring becomes subjective: some judges reward the visible damage and striking differential, others credit the wrestler's octagon control and takedown attempts. The 30-ft cage exacerbates this dynamic by increasing neutral-space time where striking statistics accumulate, potentially swaying optics toward Guskov's output even in rounds where Blachowicz banks control minutes. This scoring ambiguity creates paths to victory for both fighters even in competitive rounds, with Blachowicz needing to maximize control duration and Guskov requiring clean, visible striking to impress judges when separated.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 62% | Market: varies
GOOD VALUE
Model KO/TKO ~40%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 54% | Market: 50–55%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Range time favors striker — big cage increases neutral sequences vs fence.
- • Under-rates Guskov’s accuracy — 55% StrAcc with finishing power.
- • Over-weights Jan’s control — needs multiple clean entries to bank rounds.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Jan Blachowicz
Control to arm-triangle/RNC sequences
Wrestle-heavy minutes bank rounds
Counter or GNP opportunities
💥Outcome Distribution - Bogdan Guskov
Front‑loaded finishing profile (R1–R2)
Clean optics, higher accuracy
Reactive guillotine looks
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Bogdan Guskov
- • First 8–10 minutes: maximum striking advantage and danger density.
- • Rounds 1-2: most finishes occur here given pace and accuracy.
- • Distance control: keep center, punish entries, separate on clinch.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Jan Blachowicz
- • Round 3: fence control and mat returns bank decisive minutes.
- • Accumulation: low kicks and clinch wear down defense.
- • Submission threat: late grappling sequences open chokes.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid lean to Bogdan Guskov due to range dynamics and accuracy
✅Supporting Factors
- • Accuracy/output edge for Bogdan Guskov
- • Big cage increases time at range
- • Finishing danger early shifts optics
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Jan Blachowicz's fence control/top time
- • Potential guillotine traps on reactive shots
- • Judges rewarding control time over strikes
🏁Executive Summary
This Light Heavyweight contest presents a classic striker vs grappler dichotomy, with the 30‑ft cage environment tilting neutral minutes modestly toward Bogdan Guskov's range-striking game. The larger cage provides additional real estate for lateral movement and reset opportunities, making it harder for Jan Blachowicz to pin Guskov against the fence and establish his grinding control sequences. However, this advantage is conditional—if Blachowicz can establish early clinch control through well-timed entries or counter-wrestling after defending initial strikes, his ability to ride out minutes against the cage and work mat returns could bank multiple rounds through sheer positional dominance. The fight's outcome likely hinges on location control: clean-range minutes where accuracy and danger density dictate scoring favor Guskov's power-precision striking (4.17 SLpM, 55% StrAcc, 0.6 KD/fight), while extended fence/grappling phases where control time outweighs strike differential favor Blachowicz's veteran pressure game.
Our model assigns Bogdan Guskov a 62% win probability versus Jan Blachowicz's 38%, reflecting Guskov's superior striking metrics, early-finishing profile (13 R1 wins), and the cage-size advantage for range control. The technical breakdown—Guskov's 6.8/10 striking composite vs 4.9/10 grappling composite, versus Blachowicz's 7.3/10 striking and 7.1/10 grappling—reveals non-overlapping skill peaks that create path-dependent outcomes. Guskov's 100% finish rate and front-loaded danger pattern (R1-R2 weighted) create immense early pressure, but his untested deep-water cardio (avg 4:52 fight duration) and zero offensive wrestling (0.00 TD15) leave him vulnerable if Blachowicz survives the initial onslaught and drags him into grinding later-round exchanges.
Prediction: We side with Bogdan Guskov at market prices near or better than -160 (62% implied), with primary method of victory weighted toward KO/TKO in early rounds (40% overall, concentrated R1-R2). Our confidence level of 7/10 reflects solid conviction in the pick while acknowledging genuine uncertainty: Blachowicz's championship experience, elite 69% TDDef, and ability to impose grueling pace in later rounds present legitimate paths to victory. Hedge considerations include Jan Blachowicz by decision (if he weathers early danger and banks rounds 2-3 via control time) or submission (late-round choke off extended top position). The stylistic clash and environmental factors make this a fascinating tactical battle where execution of game plan—not just raw skill—will determine the victor.