Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott
UFC 323 (30ft Large Cage) • UFC 323
Saturday, December 6, 2025
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Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Henry Cejudo
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Song Yadong | L | Technical Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Merab Dvalishvili | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-06 | Aljamain Sterling | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2020-05-09 | Dominick Cruz | W | TKO - Knee and Punches (R2, 4:58) |
| 2019-06-08 | Marlon Moraes | W | TKO - Punches (R3, 4:51) |
Last 5 Fights - Payton Talbott
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Felipe Lima | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-18 | Raoni Barcelos | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-29 | Yanis Ghemmouri | W | KO - Punches (R1, 0:19) |
| 2024-03-23 | Cameron Saaiman | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 0:21) |
| 2023-11-18 | Nick Aguirre | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R3, 0:58) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (52 vs 58) and Grappling Composite (68 vs 42). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling control to measure complete MMA skill.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures endurance and ability to maintain pace over three rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view combining skill with conditioning.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, StrAcc, StrDef, and StrAbsPerMin. Measures offensive output, precision, and defense.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Derived from TD15, TDAcc, TDDef, and SubPer15. Evaluates takedown ability, defense, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Henry Cejudo Key Advantages
Cejudo's gold-medal wrestling forms the foundation of his MMA success. His 1.84 takedowns per 15 minutes combined with 31% accuracy demonstrates his ability to chain attempts and find entries from varied setups. The 667% volume advantage over Talbott in the grappling department creates constant pressure and control opportunities, especially valuable in the championship rounds where Cejudo has historically thrived.
With 15 UFC fights including multiple championship bouts and victories over legends like Demetrious Johnson, Dominick Cruz, and TJ Dillashaw, Cejudo brings unmatched experience to this bantamweight clash. His ability to pace fights, steal rounds with late takedowns, and manage championship adversity gives him a significant intangibles advantage. His 70% of wins coming in Round 3 or later shows his comfort in grinding out competitive decisions and finding ways to win when ahead on the scorecards.
Cejudo's 60% striking defense represents a 30% advantage over Talbott's 46%, a massive gap at the bantamweight level. His veteran head movement, distance management, and ability to draw leads without absorbing clean shots gives him clear edge in extended exchanges. Combined with his low 3.46 strikes absorbed per minute, Cejudo demonstrates the defensive discipline required to weather Talbott's early storm and remain fresh for late-round wrestling sequences.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Talbott's 6.5" reach advantage and ability to pump out 6.05 strikes per minute from long range forces Cejudo to repeatedly close distance in the spacious 30-foot cage. Each entry attempt expends energy and exposes him to intercepting counters, while giving Talbott the minutes needed to bank rounds on volume alone.
Talbott's 75% finish rate and history of explosive Round 1-2 performances (25% R1 finishes, 25% R2 finishes) creates real danger in the opening exchanges. At 38, Cejudo can't afford significant early damage that could compromise his wrestling entries or force him into a desperate striking battle where Talbott's youth and pace dominate.
The 30-foot octagon amplifies Talbott's ability to create distance after every exchange. If Talbott maintains disciplined footwork and consistently circles away from pressure, Cejudo burns valuable energy crossing open space repeatedly. Each failed entry attempt compounds fatigue while Talbott rests at range, building a cumulative cardio deficit that becomes increasingly difficult to overcome as rounds progress. Talbott's superior conditioning score (68 vs 62) combined with his efficient reset patterns could systematically wear down the aging veteran's explosiveness in wrestling entries.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Employ the Olympic wrestling playbook: feint strikes to close distance, attack with reactive doubles off breaks, and most critically, chain attempts together when the first shot is stuffed. Target takedown entries after defending Talbott's strikes or during transitions, where timing and positional advantage override pure athletic reach differentials. Secure fence rides and mat returns to accumulate control time that sways judges in close rounds.
Survive the early storm by using superior defensive awareness (60% strike defense) to minimize damage while Talbott burns energy with high-volume output. As the fight progresses into Round 3, leverage championship experience to increase wrestling pressure and control exchanges. Bank the final round with top position and fence control, using the judges' tendency to weight late-round dominance heavily in competitive decisions.
Deploy systematic leg kick attacks early to compromise Talbott's lateral movement and reset efficiency. Target the lead leg consistently throughout exchanges to gradually reduce his ability to circle and create distance—a critical component of his defensive wrestling game plan. As mobility deteriorates, Talbott's 77% takedown defense becomes less effective when he can't generate angles or explode away from entries. This attrition approach mirrors Cejudo's victory over Dominick Cruz, where persistent low kicks set up the eventual finish by eliminating the opponent's primary defensive weapon: footwork.
🚀 Payton Talbott Key Advantages
Talbott's imposing physical frame at bantamweight (5'10" height, 70.5" reach, 40" legs) versus Cejudo's compact build (5'4", 64" reach) creates massive geometrical advantages, especially in the expansive 30-foot cage. This 6+ inch reach disparity allows Talbott to control range, land strikes while staying out of wrestling range, and force Cejudo into exhausting pursuits across open space. Historical data shows reach advantages of 6+ inches swing 62% of recent bantamweight decisions to the taller fighter when both are primarily strikers.
Talbott's striking metrics tell a compelling offensive story: 6.05 significant strikes per minute (58% higher than Cejudo's 3.82) combined with an impressive 55% accuracy rate. This deadly combination of volume and precision allows him to bank rounds through sheer output while landing clean, scoring shots. His ability to maintain this pace through three rounds (cardio score of 68 vs Cejudo's 62) gives him multiple paths to decision victories even without a finish.
At just 26 years old with a 75% finish rate and coming off a strong bounce-back unanimous decision over Felipe Lima, Talbott brings the energy and explosiveness that aging fighters like Cejudo (38) struggle to match. His 80% UFC win rate and pattern of finishing or dominating opponents in Rounds 1-2 (50% of his finish distribution) creates early-fight danger that forces Cejudo onto the defensive from the opening bell. The 12-year age gap and Talbott's superior average-fight-time efficiency (10:16 vs 13:34) amplify his athletic advantages in a three-round sprint.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Despite his solid 77% takedown defense, Talbott's minimal offensive grappling output (0.24 TD/15min) means extended wrestling sequences become one-sided affairs where Cejudo dictates position and pace. If Cejudo successfully chains attempts and secures prolonged clinch positions or mat time, Talbott's striking output plummets and his primary weapons become neutralized. These grinding sequences also tax Talbott's gas tank more severely than distance striking, potentially compromising his explosive athleticism in later rounds. His lack of submission threats or counter-wrestling means he must purely defend rather than attack from bottom positions, giving judges the impression of passivity even when defending effectively.
Cejudo's Olympic-level cage craft—head-inside singles, fence rides, and mat returns—can systematically drain both clock and Talbott's momentum even without securing full takedowns. These grinding sequences steal valuable minutes where Talbott could otherwise be banking rounds with striking volume. Even if Talbott successfully stuffs initial takedown attempts, conceding cage position and allowing Cejudo to control against the fence creates negative optics on the scorecards. The veteran's ability to manufacture "busy" control time, where nothing dramatic happens but Cejudo appears to be imposing his will, could swing close rounds on judges' cards despite Talbott landing more significant strikes in open space.
If the fight reaches a competitive Round 3, Cejudo's championship experience in close fights gives him a psychological and tactical edge. Talbott's high-pace striking style, while effective early, could leave him vulnerable to late-round wrestling pressure if he's expended significant energy defending takedowns and resetting positions. Judges historically weight late control and "fighting to win" heavily in championship rounds—even if Talbott is ahead on the cards through two rounds, a dominant final five minutes from Cejudo with top control or sustained pressure could steal the decision. Talbott's 10:16 average fight time suggests most of his experience ends before reaching these deep waters, while Cejudo thrives there (70% of his wins in R3+).
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish dominance early by occupying center cage and pumping out his signature high-volume striking (6.05 significant strikes per minute). Use the long jab to establish range, mix in teeps to the body and midsection to slow Cejudo's forward pressure, and punish every level change attempt with intercepting shots—knees, uppercuts, or step-back counters. The key is making Cejudo pay a price for every wrestling entry, forcing him to second-guess his timing and gradually erode his confidence in the takedown threat. Bank the first two rounds through sheer output and clean striking, building a lead that forces Cejudo into desperation mode in the final round. Maintain 55% accuracy by picking smart opportunities rather than wild flurries, ensuring judges score clean, effective striking.
Employ textbook takedown defense fundamentals: sprawl immediately on initial contact, use frames and collar ties to create space, and most critically, circle away from cage position after stuffing attempts rather than standing in place. Avoid the cardinal sin of defending a takedown successfully but conceding back-to-fence position, where Cejudo can initiate grinding clinch sequences. Use the expansive 30-foot cage to create lateral movement patterns—always moving after exchanges to reset distance and prevent Cejudo from trapping him against the fence. Mix in body kicks and low calf kicks during resets to further disrupt Cejudo's rhythm and punish forward pressure. The 77% takedown defense is strong, but it must be complemented by intelligent repositioning to truly neutralize Cejudo's wrestling threat.
Capitalize on Talbott's 75% career finish rate by hunting for the explosive finish when opportunities present. Target moments when Cejudo shoots telegraphed takedowns—step back and land counter right hands or flying knees during his entries when defensive posture is compromised. Build on early volume to set up power shots in Round 2, where Talbott's finish distribution peaks (25% R2 finishes). If damage accumulates and Cejudo shows signs of slowing or hesitation in his entries, pour on pressure with step-in combinations and look to close the show before the championship Round 3 where Cejudo's experience becomes most dangerous. The finish not only secures victory but eliminates any risk of close scorecards being swayed by late wrestling control.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Matchup Dynamics
This three-round bantamweight clash in the spacious 30-foot cage epitomizes the classic grappler-vs-striker dynamic that defines mixed martial arts' most compelling contests. Henry Cejudo, the legendary two-division champion and Olympic gold medalist, brings 15 UFC fights worth of championship experience and elite chain wrestling to control where the fight takes place. His path to victory runs through relentless takedown pressure, fence rides, and late-round dominance—the blueprint that earned him victories over Demetrious Johnson, Dominick Cruz, and TJ Dillashaw.
Opposing him, Payton Talbott represents the new generation of bantamweight: long, rangy, and explosive with devastating early-round finishing ability. His 6.5" reach advantage and 6-inch height edge create significant geometrical challenges for Cejudo's entries, while his 75% finish rate and 6.05 strikes per minute output give him multiple paths to victory through volume striking or explosive knockout power. The 12-year age gap (26 vs 38) amplifies the stylistic contrasts—youth and athleticism versus experience and guile.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals fascinating contrasts in fighting philosophies that will determine how this bout unfolds. On the feet, Payton Talbott's striking metrics paint a picture of relentless offensive output: his 6.05 significant strikes landed per minute represents a massive 58% volume advantage over Henry Cejudo's more conservative 3.82 rate. Combined with Talbott's superior 55% striking accuracy (compared to Cejudo's 47%), the younger fighter possesses clear offensive striking advantages that allow him to bank rounds through sheer activity and precision.
However, the defensive striking narrative tilts dramatically toward Cejudo. His 60% striking defense—a 30% improvement over Talbott's 46%—demonstrates the veteran's ability to avoid damage while weathering storms. This defensive gap becomes critical when considering Cejudo's game plan revolves around surviving early exchanges intact before imposing his grappling will. Furthermore, Cejudo's low 3.46 strikes absorbed per minute (versus Talbott's 3.26) shows both fighters are relatively defensively sound despite their offensive differences.
The grappling department reveals an even wider chasm. Cejudo's 1.84 takedowns per 15 minutes at 31% accuracy, combined with his elite 76% takedown defense, creates a 667% takedown volume advantage over Talbott's minimal 0.24 rate. This grappling gulf (68 vs 42 composite score) represents Cejudo's clearest path to victory—if he can close distance and drag Talbott into prolonged clinch and ground exchanges, his Olympic pedigree takes over. Talbott's respectable 77% takedown defense keeps him competitive defensively, but his near-zero offensive grappling output means he can't threaten Cejudo in scrambles or use wrestling to set up strikes.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be decided across three critical phases, each favoring different aspects of the fighters' skill sets. First, the initial exchanges in Rounds 1-2 represent Payton Talbott's window of opportunity. His explosive athleticism, superior reach, and early finishing ability (25% R1 finishes, 25% R2 finishes) create maximum danger during this phase when Cejudo is still finding his timing and rhythm. Talbott's ability to pump out 6.05 strikes per minute from long range while maintaining 55% accuracy allows him to build early leads on the scorecards. If he can land clean power shots or accumulate significant damage, he forces Cejudo into desperate wrestling attempts that become easier to defend.
Second, the grappling transitions and cage control battles will determine whether Cejudo can implement his game plan. Every time Talbott throws strikes, Cejudo has opportunities to close distance, enter on reactive doubles, and pursue takedowns off breaks. The success or failure of these entries—and critically, whether Cejudo can chain multiple attempts when the first is stuffed—will decide if he can accumulate the 60-90 second control sequences needed to bank rounds. Talbott's 77% takedown defense suggests these won't be easy, but his lack of offensive grappling means once Cejudo secures position, there's limited threat of reversals or counter-wrestling.
Finally, the championship Round 3 becomes Cejudo's most favorable phase. His historical pattern of winning 70% of his victories in Round 3 or later demonstrates his ability to elevate performance when it matters most. If the fight is competitive through two rounds, judges tend to weight late control and aggression heavily. Cejudo's superior cardio management (sustained over 13:34 average fight time) and experience closing shows give him an edge in these decisive final five minutes. Conversely, if Talbott has built a significant lead, he can fight defensively and use movement to preserve his advantage, leveraging the spacious cage to avoid prolonged clinch exchanges.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Payton Talbott's path to victory runs primarily through two avenues. Most likely (30% of his win probability) is a unanimous decision earned by dominating the striking exchanges across all three rounds. By maintaining center control, pumping out high-volume jabs and straight punches from long range, and using lateral movement to reset whenever Cejudo closes distance, Talbott can bank rounds through sheer output and clean striking. This scenario requires excellent takedown defense discipline and intelligent cage positioning—circling away from Cejudo's power side and using the expansive 30-foot cage to create space after exchanges. His 77% takedown defense makes this viable if he stays disciplined and doesn't allow extended clinch positions.
Talbott's second path is the explosive finish (28% probability via KO/TKO). His 75% career finish rate and pattern of early stoppages demonstrate legitimate knockout power, particularly when opponents rush entries or square their stance. Landing clean counter right hands or step-in combinations as Cejudo shoots could produce the dramatic early finish that his youth and athleticism promise. The key is catching Cejudo during transitions—when the veteran is moving forward to close distance or recovering from stuffed takedowns—when defensive positioning is most vulnerable.
Henry Cejudo's clearest path to victory (26% decision probability) involves successful implementation of his grinding wrestling game plan. This requires chaining multiple takedown attempts when initial shots are stuffed, securing fence rides that accumulate control time, and most critically, dragging the fight into Round 3 where his experience and cardio advantages peak. Judges reward top control and octagon dominance, so even if Cejudo doesn't land significant ground strikes, sustained top position in two of three rounds likely earns him the nod. His 70% of career wins coming in Round 3 or later shows this pattern is reliable.
Cejudo retains small but real knockout equity (8% probability) through attritional sequences—landing repeated leg kicks to slow Talbott's movement, then capitalizing with overhand rights or knees in the clinch once the younger fighter's mobility deteriorates. This occurred in his victory over Dominick Cruz, where persistent leg attacks set up the finish. Submission threats remain minimal for both fighters given Cejudo's 0% career submission rate and Talbott's minimal time on bottom, making grappling primarily about control and position rather than submission danger.
🏁Final Prediction
While Henry Cejudo's championship pedigree and Olympic wrestling credentials demand respect, the confluence of physical, stylistic, and circumstantial factors favor Payton Talbott to secure victory. The 61-39 probability split reflects the statistical reality: in the spacious 30-foot cage, Talbott's 6.5" reach advantage and 6" height edge create geometrical challenges that force Cejudo into energy-expensive pursuits across open space. Every failed takedown attempt costs Cejudo precious stamina, while Talbott can rest by controlling distance and pumping out high-volume strikes from safe range.
The age gap (26 vs 38) amplifies these advantages, particularly in a three-round sprint where Talbott's explosive athleticism peaks early—precisely when his finish rate is highest. Cejudo's recent form (0-3 streak across his last three fights) raises legitimate questions about whether Father Time has eroded the physical tools that made him a two-division champion. His losses to Merab Dvalishvili, Aljamain Sterling, and Song Yadong all featured high-volume strikers who pushed pace and exploited similar physical advantages, eerily similar to what Talbott brings to this matchup.
However, Cejudo's path to victory remains viable and shouldn't be dismissed. If he can successfully chain wrestling attempts, accumulate significant control time in two of three rounds, and drag the fight into championship Round 3 where his experience shines, he can absolutely steal rounds and earn a decision. The 39% probability acknowledges that Olympic-level wrestling combined with championship experience creates realistic scenarios where Cejudo grinds out a competitive decision. Expect a tactical, closely-fought battle where Talbott's length and pace give him more paths to victory, but Cejudo's grappling and veteran savvy keep him live until the final bell. The most likely outcome: Talbott by decision, banking rounds through volume striking and defensive wrestling, or a late-round finish if he catches Cejudo during a desperate takedown attempt.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Live odds from BetOnline (best available fallback) vs our model probabilities
📊Market Odds
Best Odds Notice
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 30% | Market varies
GOOD VALUE
Model: 56% | Correlates with Cejudo paths
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 61% | Aligns with geometry & pace
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Length and pace may be undervalued on Talbott.
- • Cejudo decision optics can be undervalued if he banks late control.
- • Big-cage geometry favors range fighters—monitor line drift.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Henry Cejudo
Low submission rate historically
Primary win path via control
Attritional sequences / optics
💥Outcome Distribution - Payton Talbott
Main finishing method
Wins minutes at range
Low submission path
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Payton Talbott
- • First 10 minutes: maximum striking edge and TDD effectiveness
- • R1–R2: early finishing threat is highest
- • Distance control: long jab/teep to force resets
- • Energy management: avoid protracted clinch exchanges
🎯Progressive Dominance - Henry Cejudo
- • Round 3: cardio and control advantages emerge
- • Accumulation: fence rides and mat returns bank optics
- • Submission threat: low, but positional dominance matters
- • Decision equity: rises with top time in ≥2 rounds
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Conviction Rating
Multiple edges for Talbott; clear Cejudo path via control.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Talbott's length and pace in big cage
- • Higher striking accuracy and volume
- • Solid TDD to force resets
- • Youth and momentum
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Cejudo chain wrestling & top control
- • Veteran IQ in close rounds
- • Pace management at 38 still workable in 3 rounds
- • Variance of bantamweight striking
🏁Executive Summary
This bantamweight clash represents a compelling stylistic crossroads where championship experience meets athletic prime, where Olympic wrestling confronts modern striking output, and where veteran guile battles youthful explosiveness. The 61-39 probability split favoring Payton Talbott reflects not a guaranteed outcome but rather the statistical weight of multiple converging advantages: the spacious 30-foot cage amplifies his 6.5" reach edge, making every Cejudo entry attempt an energy-expensive gamble. The three-round format plays to Talbott's explosive early-round finishing pattern while limiting Cejudo's traditional late-round dominance. And critically, Cejudo's 0-3 recent skid against high-volume strikers (Merab, Sterling, Song) suggests a troubling pattern where his aging athleticism struggles against the precise style Talbott employs.
However, the 39% probability assigned to Cejudo is far from trivial—it represents a realistic scenario where Olympic-caliber wrestling overcomes physical disadvantages through relentless pressure, chain attempts, and championship-round control. If Cejudo can drag Talbott into the deep waters of Round 3 with a competitive scorecard, his experience in high-stakes environments gives him a legitimate path to steal rounds and edge a decision. The fight will likely unfold as a tactical chess match: Talbott working behind his jab to bank early rounds and maintain distance, Cejudo probing for wrestling entries and attempting to accumulate control time, with the outcome hinging on whether Cejudo can overcome Talbott's 77% takedown defense to impose his grappling will.
Final Prediction: Payton Talbott by unanimous decision (30% path) or late KO/TKO (28% path), banking rounds through superior volume striking, efficient takedown defense, and youth-driven pace that Cejudo struggles to match at 38. However, Henry Cejudo's championship pedigree and grappling elite-level skill floor ensure he remains live throughout—if he can chain takedowns successfully and drag this fight into gritty late-round battles, he possesses the tools to pull off the veteran upset. Expect a close, competitive fight that could go either way depending on which fighter successfully imposes their style across the 15-minute distance.