Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van
Men's Flyweight Title Bout • UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Saturday, December 6, 2025 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
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Alexandre Pantoja
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Alexandre Pantoja
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Kai Kara-France | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R3, 1:55) |
| 2024-12-07 | Kai Asakura | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 2:05) |
| 2024-05-04 | Steve Erceg | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-16 | Brandon Royval | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-08 | Brandon Moreno | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
Joshua Van
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Joshua Van
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Brandon Royval | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-07 | Bruno Silva | W | KO/TKO - Punches to Head On Ground (R3, 4:01) |
| 2025-03-08 | Rei Tsuruya | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-07 | Cody Durden | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-14 | Edgar Chairez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (85 vs 92) and Grappling Composite (97 vs 70). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Alexandre Pantoja Key Advantages
Pantoja's grappling composite (51.3) is a tier above Van's (40.2), but the real story is finishing equity. Pantoja averages 1.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes, while Van has never attempted a submission in his UFC career (0.0). This creates a "checkmate" dynamic: Van must win minutes to win rounds, while Pantoja can end the fight in any single scrambling sequence.
Against high-pace strikers like Van, Pantoja excels at converting chaotic scrambles into back-takes. His 2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes aren't just for control—they are entry points to his lethal submission chains. If the fight hits the mat, Van is surviving, not competing.
Experience gap is massive. Pantoja has been 25 minutes with elite competition (Moreno, Royval, Erceg) and knows how to pace himself, steal rounds, and surge in the 4th and 5th. Van, at just 23, has never seen championship rounds in the UFC.
This "deep water" advantage means Pantoja can weather early storms and rely on Van fading or making mental errors as fatigue sets in. The champion's ability to weaponize cardio and pressure late in fights is a proven commodity; Van's 5-round gas tank is a hypothesis.
Van's 8.86 strikes landed per minute is aggressive, but it leaves him open to reactive takedowns. Pantoja doesn't need to force shots from distance; he can time his level changes under Van's high-volume combinations.
By ducking under hooks or catching kicks, Pantoja can bypass the initial sprawl layer and get to body locks. Once clinched, his trips and mat returns are relentless, neutralizing Van's boxing advantage immediately.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Pantoja cannot bridge the gap or secure clinches, Van's 8.86 SLpM will shred him. Absorbing 4-5 strikes to land 1 is a losing mathematical proposition over 25 minutes. Pantoja's durability is legendary, but accumulation of damage affects judges' scoring heavily.
Spamming takedowns against Van's 81% TDD can be exhausting. If Pantoja shoots 10 times and gets stuffed 8 times, his arms fill with blood and his striking snap diminishes, making him a sitting duck for Van's late-round combinations.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Walk Van down to the fence immediately. Deny the open space needed for Van's footwork. Use forward pressure to force Van to plant his feet, then crash into the clinch to initiate chain wrestling sequences.
Every takedown or scramble should have one goal: the back. Pantoja is lethal with the body triangle. He doesn't need to ground-and-pound; he needs to backpack Van to drain his gas tank and threaten the RNC constantly.
🚀 Joshua Van Key Advantages
Joshua Van's output is historic for the division. Landing nearly 9 significant strikes per minute puts immense pressure on opponents' defense and cardio. Against Pantoja (4.36 SLpM), this 2:1 volume advantage means Van can steal rounds purely on activity and optics if he stays upright.
This volume isn't just "pitter-patter"; it disrupts rhythm. Pantoja struggles to set up entries when he's constantly resetting his guard. Van's ability to throw 3-4 punch combinations ending with leg kicks is the perfect antidote to a grappler's pressure.
Van's hips are heavy and his sprawl is reactive. Defending 81% of takedowns suggests he is very difficult to ground initially. If he can stuff Pantoja's first shot and force a reset, he wins that exchange.
Stopping the first shot forces Pantoja to chain wrestle, which is exhausting. If Van denies the entry and lands a knee or hook on the break, he discourages future attempts and keeps the fight in his preferred kickboxing range.
The 12-year age gap is statistically significant in lower weight classes. Van's speed, reaction time, and physical recovery should be superior. Pantoja has miles on the odometer; Van is fresh.
This physical edge allows Van to maintain his insane pace for 15 minutes easily. The question is whether he can sustain it for 25 minutes, but the speed advantage in the pocket will be evident from the opening bell.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Pantoja takes the back in Round 1 or 2, Van is in a world of trouble. Fighting off a body triangle for 3-4 minutes drains the legs and the gas tank, eliminating the "pop" needed for his volume striking in later rounds.
Defending one shot is fine. Defending three in a row against the fence is exhausting. If Van gets stuck in a cycle of "sprawl-wall walk-return to mat", his output will plummet, and he will lose rounds on control time optics.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Never move straight back. Pantoja charges in straight lines. Van must pivot off the centerline after every combination to prevent Pantoja from crashing into the clinch. Stick and move, stick and move.
Uppercuts and knees up the middle. When Pantoja changes levels, Van needs to make him pay *before* the hands lock. Turning defense into immediate offense discourages the wrestling.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
This flyweight title fight embodies the classic archetype: veteran champion with layered grappling versus explosive young striker with elite volume. Pantoja, at 35 with championship pedigree, steps into the 30-foot large cage with proven 5-round craft and a grappling game that typically intensifies as fights extend into championship rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical story is straightforward: Pantoja owns a decisive grappling edge (51.3 vs 40.2 composite) anchored by 2.8 TD/15 and a live 1.0 Sub/15 finishing threat that Van has never demonstrated. Conversely, Van leads in striking composite (52.4 vs 45.1) driven by 8.86 SLpM. These numbers tell us that every minute on the feet slightly favors Van, while every mat sequence heavily favors Pantoja.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Three critical battlegrounds will define this fight. First, distance management: Van needs to maintain kickboxing range. Second, first-layer defense versus chain-wrestling. Third, late-round scrambles and submission windows.
🏁Final Prediction
Our model gives Pantoja a 68% win probability, reflecting his layered grappling advantage, championship experience, and late-round finishing equity. The champion's path is clear: pressure Van into defensive wrestling mode. Van holds a competitive 32% win probability, entirely predicated on location control and early success.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 32% | Market: varies
GOOD VALUE
Model: 35% | Market: ~35% fair
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 18% | Market: varies
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalued control time impact – Pantoja’s ride-time isn’t fully priced.
- • Overvalued pace – Van’s volume may fade under clinch pressure.
- • Late-round tilt – Deep rounds historically favor Pantoja’s style.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alexandre Pantoja
Primary late-round path via back-takes
Control minutes bank rounds
Less common but possible from control positions
💥Outcome Distribution - Joshua Van
Burst sequences at range
Minute-winning if TDs denied
Minimal submission threat historically
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Champion’s layered game targets opponent’s vulnerabilities; volume risk persists.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Proven 5-round experience and composure
- • Superior grappling composite and submission threat
- • Control-time translation to scoring optics
- • Reactive takedowns vs high-volume entries
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Van’s elite pace and accuracy in space
- • TDD holds early can swing optics
- • Large cage favors range striking
- • Flyweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
After breaking down the tape, statistics, and stylistic dynamics, we're firmly siding with the champion. Alexandre Pantoja's layered grappling game, proven 25-minute championship craft, and late-round finishing equity give him multiple paths to victory that compound over time. Van's pace and striking volume are real and dangerous—8.86 SLpM with 56% accuracy is a legitimate threat if this stays standing—but Pantoja's reactive takedowns, chain-wrestling persistence, and back-take sequences systematically answer that volume with control phases and submission equity, especially as fights extend into championship rounds.
The fundamental strategic problem for Van is sustainability: can he maintain distance control, deny takedowns, and bank clean striking minutes over 25 minutes against persistent grappling pressure? His 81% TDD is solid but untested in five-round championship wrestling exchanges. Pantoja doesn't shoot once and abandon position—he chains attempts, recycles entries, and uses mat returns to drain defensive wrestling reserves even when individual attempts fail.
Van's clearest path is front-loading success: bank rounds 1-3 with sustained range striking, exit immediately after sprawls to avoid extended mat sequences, and hope to build an insurmountable lead before Pantoja's championship experience and late-round grappling momentum take over. That's a narrow window.
Prediction: Pantoja by Decision (35% of our simulations) or Submission (18%) most often, with the submission threat escalating dramatically in rounds 4-5. Van's 32% win probability hinges entirely on sustained range striking and early TDD success—a real but narrow path. We're backing the champion's experience, grappling dominance, and late-round composure to prevail in what should be a competitive but ultimately controlled performance from the veteran titleholder.