Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC 323
Saturday, December 6, 2025
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Champion Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Challenger Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Alexandre Pantoja
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Kai Kara-France | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R3, 1:55) |
| 2024-12-07 | Kai Asakura | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 2:05) |
| 2024-05-04 | Steve Erceg | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-16 | Brandon Royval | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-08 | Brandon Moreno | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Joshua Van
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Brandon Royval | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-07 | Bruno Silva | W | KO/TKO - Punches to Head On Ground (R3, 4:01) |
| 2025-03-08 | Rei Tsuruya | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-07 | Cody Durden | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-14 | Edgar Chairez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Alexandre Pantoja advantage: 12.3%Cardio Score
Alexandre Pantoja advantage: 3.3%Overall Rating
Alexandre Pantoja advantage: 7.6%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (85 vs 92) and Grappling Composite (97 vs 70). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Joshua Van advantage: 8.2%Grappling Composite
Alexandre Pantoja advantage: 38.6%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Alexandre Pantoja Key Advantages
Pantoja's grappling composite (51.3) significantly outclasses Van's (40.2), anchored by consistent takedown pressure at 2.8 TD/15 with 38% accuracy. More critically, his 1.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes represent a genuine finishing threat that Van has never demonstrated—Van sits at 0.0 Sub/15 across his entire UFC run. This disparity creates a fundamental problem: every mat sequence carries submission equity for Pantoja while Van must rely solely on scrambles and escapes.
The champion's reactive entries—level changes timed under Van's combinations—allow him to convert offensive boxing sequences into defensive wrestling scenarios. Pantoja's 79% takedown defense means he's comfortable in scrambles, and once he secures position, his back-take game becomes the primary finishing mechanism. Van's 81% TDD is solid but untested against a veteran who chains attempts and doesn't abandon position after initial sprawls.
At 35 years old with multiple championship fights under his belt, Pantoja has proven himself in the deep waters of 25-minute battles. His experience in title fights means he understands pacing, knows when to push tempo, and—most importantly—how to weaponize control time in championship rounds. Van, at 23, has never seen the fourth or fifth round in the UFC. This is his first five-round fight and his first title opportunity, meaning the physiological and psychological demands of rounds 4-5 are completely untested territory.
Championship craft isn't just about cardio—it's about tactical adjustments, recognizing patterns mid-fight, and exploiting fatigue. Pantoja's historical tendency to build momentum as fights extend suggests he's comfortable in later rounds where his grappling becomes increasingly effective as opponents tire. Van's 75.0% finish rate indicates he's used to ending fights early; if this goes past three rounds, Pantoja's comfort in that environment becomes a significant intangible advantage.
Pantoja's takedown game is built around reactive timing rather than heavy shot volume. He waits for Van to commit to combinations, then uses level changes under the strikes to create clinch opportunities and cage-riding sequences. This approach is particularly effective against high-volume strikers like Van (8.86 SLpM) because it turns offensive output into defensive liability—every combination Van throws is a potential entry window for Pantoja.
Once in the clinch, Pantoja excels at mat returns. Even when Van successfully sprawls or escapes initial attempts, the champion's ability to return the fight to the mat repeatedly wears down the defensive wrestler's base and scrambling energy. These mat returns don't always show up as official takedowns, but they drain the striker's gas tank and accumulate control time that judges reward in championship rounds. Van's 81% TDD may hold early, but chain-wrestling and persistent returns historically break down that percentage as fights extend.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Van's volume (8.86 SLpM) and accuracy (56%) can bank minutes if Pantoja stays at kickboxing range. The large 30-foot cage provides ample space for Van to circle, reset, and maintain distance. If Pantoja can't close the distance and force grappling exchanges, Van's striking composite (52.4 vs 45.1) gives him the tools to win clean striking rounds. Extended time in the pocket favors the younger, higher-volume striker.
High early pace from Van increases hit-ability on Pantoja's entries before the champion settles his reads. Van's 75% finish rate suggests he can create explosive moments, and if he lands clean during Pantoja's level changes, the reactive entries become liability windows. Early damage or a knockdown could force Pantoja to abandon his grappling-heavy game plan and engage in a striking battle he's less equipped to win.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Feint entries and pressure forward to deny Van's preferred striking range. Use clinch rides, cage work, and persistent mat returns to force Van into defensive wrestling mode. Chain attempts together—even failed takedowns build cumulative fatigue and open later opportunities. Focus on back-takes once position is secured, as this is where Pantoja's submission threat becomes most dangerous.
Prioritize control and submission equity over ground-and-pound volume. Each mat return—even if Van scrambles out—drains his base and reduces his scrambling efficiency for later rounds. Bank control time in rounds 3-5 where judges weigh positional dominance heavily. Don't abandon position to chase finishes; the submission will come as Van tires and his defensive layers erode.
🚀 Joshua Van Key Advantages
Van's striking output (8.86 SLpM) is elite for the flyweight division, nearly double Pantoja's 4.55 SLpM. Combined with 56% accuracy and strong 57% defensive rate, Van possesses all the tools to win clean striking minutes. His striking composite (52.4) edges Pantoja's (45.1), meaning that every minute spent at kickboxing range statistically favors the challenger. The 30-foot large cage amplifies this advantage, giving Van space to circle, reset angles, and maintain his preferred distance.
If Van can keep this fight vertical and avoid extended grappling sequences, he has a legitimate path to banking rounds through sheer volume and precision. His pace is relentless, and against opponents who can't or won't force grappling, that pace becomes overwhelming. The question is whether Pantoja will allow him the space to operate freely or consistently drag him into uncomfortable wrestling exchanges.
Van's 81% takedown defense is a strong first layer against Pantoja's entries. While Pantoja averages 2.8 TD/15, Van has shown the ability to sprawl effectively and deny early takedowns. This high initial success rate can delay Pantoja's control phases in rounds 1-2, buying Van time to build a striking lead before the champion settles into his chain-wrestling rhythm.
The critical question is durability: can Van maintain that 81% across five rounds against a wrestler who chains attempts? Pantoja doesn't shoot once and give up—he recycles entries, feints, clinches, and returns opponents to the mat repeatedly. Van's TDD percentage is untested in extended championship grappling sequences, and historically, first-layer defense erodes as fights deepen and fatigue accumulates.
At just 23 years old, Van has youth and recovery on his side. In three-round fights, he's shown the ability to build momentum in rounds 2-3, often finishing strong when opponents begin to fade. His cardio score (70.2) is competitive with Pantoja's (74.8), suggesting he can maintain output deeper into fights. The question mark is whether that translates to championship rounds—rounds 4 and 5 are uncharted territory for Van.
If Van can navigate the early wrestling pressure and reach the later rounds with energy intact, his youth could become a factor. Pantoja is 35 with significant mileage, and while his experience is valuable, physical recovery and raw athleticism trend toward the younger fighter in deep waters. The catch: Van must survive the grappling attrition to reach those rounds with enough gas to capitalize.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Lengthy clinch and ride-time sequences are Van's kryptonite. Extended grappling saps his striking volume, drains his defensive wrestling reserves, and exposes him to Pantoja's back-take and submission game. Van has 0.0 Sub/15—no submission offense historically—meaning once Pantoja secures dominant position, Van must rely solely on escapes and scrambles. Prolonged mat time favors the champion's submission equity and control scoring.
Repeated mat returns—even when Van sprawls successfully on initial attempts—erode his base and reduce scrambling efficiency over rounds. Pantoja's chain-wrestling style means every escape Van makes is followed by another entry. This cumulative fatigue breaks down TDD percentages and opens late-round submission windows. By rounds 4-5, Van's defensive layers may be compromised, and Pantoja's back-take threat escalates dramatically.
📋 Likely Gameplan
High jab volume, short combos, and immediate exits are key. Use the 30-foot cage to circle and reset constantly, denying Pantoja predictable entry lanes. Early underhooks in the clinch can disrupt level changes before they develop. Maintain kickboxing range where Van's volume and accuracy give him the edge, and avoid extended exchanges where Pantoja can time reactive takedowns.
Immediate hip turns and sprawls on shots are critical—first-layer defense must be perfect. Exit on angles after sprawls to reset the pocket rather than engaging in prolonged mat scrambles. Every second Van spends on the mat favors Pantoja's control game. Urgency in escapes and resets is essential to keep the fight standing where Van's striking tools give him the advantage.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
This flyweight title fight embodies the classic archetype: veteran champion with layered grappling versus explosive young striker with elite volume. Pantoja, at 35 with championship pedigree, steps into the 30-foot large cage with proven 5-round craft and a grappling game that typically intensifies as fights extend into championship rounds. Van, just 23 and riding an impressive win streak, brings youth, pace, and striking output that can overwhelm opponents in early rounds.
The large cage amplifies Van's space advantages—giving him room to circle, reset, and maintain kickboxing distance—but also provides Pantoja with angles to cut off and pressure into reactive entries. Historically, Pantoja builds momentum late, leveraging control time and back-takes in rounds 4-5, while Van's striking threats peak early before grappling attrition accumulates. This dynamic creates a clear timeline: Van's window is rounds 1-3; Pantoja's advantage grows in rounds 3-5.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical story is straightforward: Pantoja owns a decisive grappling edge (51.3 vs 40.2 composite) anchored by 2.8 TD/15 and a live 1.0 Sub/15 finishing threat that Van has never demonstrated (0.0 Sub/15). Conversely, Van leads in striking composite (52.4 vs 45.1) driven by 8.86 SLpM—nearly double Pantoja's 4.55—combined with 56% accuracy and 57% defensive rate. These numbers tell us that every minute on the feet slightly favors Van, while every mat sequence heavily favors Pantoja.
The fight's outcome likely hinges on location control: can Van maintain distance, deny entries, and keep the fight vertical where his volume and precision shine? Or will Pantoja's reactive takedown game force extended grappling sequences that drain Van's base and open submission lanes? Van's 81% TDD is his first line of defense, but Pantoja's 38% TD accuracy paired with chain-wrestling persistence historically breaks down that percentage as rounds deepen. The technical breakdown suggests that Van must win early and convincingly on the feet; Pantoja's path is attrition, control, and late-round finishing equity.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Three critical battlegrounds will define this fight. First, distance management: Van needs to maintain kickboxing range, use the large cage to circle and reset, and avoid extended exchanges where Pantoja can time reactive entries. Pantoja, conversely, must cut angles, pressure forward, and close distance to force clinch and takedown opportunities. Every minute Van keeps this at range is a win; every clinch sequence is Pantoja building equity.
Second, first-layer defense versus chain-wrestling: Van's 81% TDD represents strong initial sprawl success, but can he maintain that across five rounds against a wrestler who doesn't abandon position after one denied attempt? Pantoja's game is built on recycling entries—feints, clinch rides, and mat returns that accumulate even when individual attempts fail. Van's TDD percentage is untested in extended championship grappling; Pantoja specializes in breaking down exactly that defensive layer.
Third, late-round scrambles and submission windows: As fights extend into rounds 4-5, fatigue erodes Van's base and scrambling efficiency. Pantoja's back-take game and 1.0 Sub/15 threat escalate dramatically in deep waters, while Van has zero submission offense historically. These late scrambles favor experience, composure, and finishing equity—all Pantoja strengths. If Van reaches championship rounds without a clear lead, Pantoja's submission threat becomes the dominant narrative.
🏁Final Prediction
Our model gives Pantoja a 68% win probability, reflecting his layered grappling advantage, championship experience, and late-round finishing equity. The champion's path is clear: pressure Van into defensive wrestling mode, chain takedown attempts, accumulate control time, and escalate submission threats in rounds 3-5 as fatigue compounds. Pantoja's reactive entries turn Van's offensive striking volume into entry windows, and his 1.0 Sub/15 provides genuine finishing threat that Van can't reciprocate on the mat.
Van holds a competitive 32% win probability, entirely predicated on location control and early success. If he can maintain distance, deny takedowns with his 81% TDD, and bank clean striking minutes in rounds 1-3, he has a legitimate path to victory. His 8.86 SLpM and 56% accuracy win those minutes convincingly. The challenge: can Van sustain that over 25 minutes against persistent grappling pressure? His youth and pace are real advantages, but they're untested in five-round championship waters against a veteran who specializes in breaking down exactly that defensive profile. Van's window is narrow; Pantoja's advantages compound over time.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 32% | Market: varies
GOOD VALUE
Model: 35% | Market: ~35% fair
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 18% | Market: varies
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalued control time impact – Pantoja’s ride-time isn’t fully priced.
- • Overvalued pace – Van’s volume may fade under clinch pressure.
- • Late-round tilt – Deep rounds historically favor Pantoja’s style.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alexandre Pantoja
Primary late-round path via back-takes
Control minutes bank rounds
Less common but possible from control positions
💥Outcome Distribution - Joshua Van
Burst sequences at range
Minute-winning if TDs denied
Minimal submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Joshua Van
- • First 10 minutes: Best chance to build striking lead.
- • Short combos: Exit on angles to avoid level changes.
- • TDD urgency: Underhooks, hip turns, immediate resets.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Alexandre Pantoja
- • Rounds 3–5: Control sequences and back-takes accumulate.
- • Mat returns: Bank time, reduce striking variance.
- • Submission lanes: RNC sequences as Van tires.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Champion’s layered game targets opponent’s vulnerabilities; volume risk persists.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Proven 5-round experience and composure
- • Superior grappling composite and submission threat
- • Control-time translation to scoring optics
- • Reactive takedowns vs high-volume entries
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Van’s elite pace and accuracy in space
- • TDD holds early can swing optics
- • Large cage favors range striking
- • Flyweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
After breaking down the tape, statistics, and stylistic dynamics, we're firmly siding with the champion. Alexandre Pantoja's layered grappling game, proven 25-minute championship craft, and late-round finishing equity give him multiple paths to victory that compound over time. Van's pace and striking volume are real and dangerous—8.86 SLpM with 56% accuracy is a legitimate threat if this stays standing—but Pantoja's reactive takedowns, chain-wrestling persistence, and back-take sequences systematically answer that volume with control phases and submission equity, especially as fights extend into championship rounds.
The fundamental strategic problem for Van is sustainability: can he maintain distance control, deny takedowns, and bank clean striking minutes over 25 minutes against persistent grappling pressure? His 81% TDD is solid but untested in five-round championship wrestling exchanges. Pantoja doesn't shoot once and abandon position—he chains attempts, recycles entries, and uses mat returns to drain defensive wrestling reserves even when individual attempts fail. This cumulative attrition historically breaks down first-layer TDD percentages as fights deepen, opening late-round submission windows where Pantoja's 1.0 Sub/15 threat becomes dominant.
Van's clearest path is front-loading success: bank rounds 1-3 with sustained range striking, exit immediately after sprawls to avoid extended mat sequences, and hope to build an insurmountable lead before Pantoja's championship experience and late-round grappling momentum take over. That's a narrow window, and it requires near-perfect distance management and defensive wrestling for 15-plus minutes. Pantoja, conversely, has multiple winning paths: he can win by decision via control time, by late submission after Van's base erodes, or even by TKO from accumulated mat striking in control positions.
Final Prediction: Pantoja by Decision (35% of our simulations) or Submission (18%) most often, with the submission threat escalating dramatically in rounds 4-5. Van's 32% win probability hinges entirely on sustained range striking and early TDD success—a real but narrow path. We're backing the champion's experience, grappling dominance, and late-round composure to prevail in what should be a competitive but ultimately controlled performance from the veteran titleholder.