Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Shamil Gaziev
Men's Heavyweight Bout • UFC Qatar
Saturday, November 22, 2025 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Shamil Gaziev
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Waldo Cortes-Acosta
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Ante Delija | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 3:59) |
| 2025-08-23 | Sergei Pavlovich | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-07 | Serghei Spivac | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-15 | Ryan Spann | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 4:48) |
| 2024-05-11 | Robelis Despaigne | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Shamil Gaziev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | Thomas Petersen | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 3:12) |
| 2024-08-03 | Don'Tale Mayes | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-02 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | L | TKO - Retirement (R4, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-16 | Martin Buday | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 0:56) |
| 2023-09-19 | Greg Velasco | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 2:38) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the blend of composite striking and grappling scores. Waldo's high-volume, defensively responsible heavyweight striking plus competent takedown defense pushes him slightly ahead, while Gaziev's technical score leans more on power and opportunistic finishing than sustained round-by-round control.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, strike rate, and finishing vs decision mix. Waldo repeatedly sustains pace through full three-rounds at heavyweight, while Gaziev is most dangerous early but drops volume as minutes accumulate, which is reflected in his lower cardio score.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. This highlights Waldo as the more complete and sustainable fighter over three rounds, while Gaziev remains the sharper finisher but less equipped to win high-output decisions in a large cage.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Waldo Cortes-Acosta Key Advantages
Waldo operates at one of the highest sustained outputs in the heavyweight division. His 5.64 strikes landed per minute represents elite volume for a 255-pound fighter, creating a massive 2.21 SLpM differential over Gaziev's 2.43. This isn't just a statistical quirk—it's a fundamental stylistic advantage that compounds over time. In a large 30ft cage, Waldo's ability to maintain this pace while circling, resetting, and chipping away at distance creates a scoring framework that heavily favors him. Gaziev, operating at less than half Waldo's output, faces an impossible choice: either match the volume (which his 2.43 SLpM suggests he cannot sustain) or chase a finish that becomes increasingly unlikely as the minutes stack up. Over three rounds, that volume edge translates into significant strike differentials—often 30-40+ strikes landed—that judges consistently reward, especially when combined with Waldo's superior defensive metrics. The Dominican's recent UFC performances against Sergei Pavlovich (decision loss but high output), Serghei Spivac (decision win via volume), and Robelis Despaigne (decision win) demonstrate his ability to outwork opponents who cannot match his pace, and Gaziev's profile suggests he falls squarely into that category.
Waldo combines elite tempo with respectable strike defense (52%) and a lower absorbed-per-minute profile, creating a damage economy that heavily favors him over three rounds. The 8-percentage-point differential in strike defense (52% vs 44%) may seem modest, but in heavyweight where every clean shot matters, it compounds significantly. Gaziev's 44% strike defense means he absorbs more than half of the strikes thrown at him, and when combined with Waldo's 5.64 SLpM output, that translates into Gaziev taking substantial damage over the course of a fight. In a large 30ft cage, Waldo's ability to move, reset, and chip away at distance lets him accumulate damage while limiting the clean power looks that Gaziev truly needs. The Dominican's defensive efficiency means he can maintain his offensive output without accumulating the kind of visible damage that sways judges or creates finishing opportunities for opponents. This defensive edge becomes particularly decisive in later rounds when Gaziev's lower output and higher absorption rate create a visible contrast—Waldo looks fresher, lands more, and takes less, creating a scoring framework that judges consistently reward. Historical data shows that fighters with both volume and defensive advantages tend to dominate scorecards, and Waldo's profile fits that template perfectly against Gaziev's more vulnerable defensive metrics.
Waldo is exceptionally comfortable banking decisions in the UFC, with 8 of his 15 career wins (53.3%) coming via decision. His win round distribution (R1:4, R2:3, R3:8) reveals a fighter who can win early but often closes out fights by simply being the busier, better-managed athlete over 3 rounds. The fact that more than half of his wins come in Round 3 demonstrates exceptional cardiovascular conditioning and strategic pacing—he doesn't fade, doesn't panic, and consistently outworks opponents as fights progress. This round distribution pattern is particularly relevant against Gaziev, who is far more dependent on early finishes (9 of 14 wins in Round 1, representing 64% of his victories). Gaziev's win profile shows a fighter who needs to end fights quickly, with only 2 decision wins in 14 career victories (14%). This creates a fundamental stylistic mismatch: Waldo is built to win rounds and accumulate scorecard advantages, while Gaziev is built to finish or lose. Any time the fight drifts into a stable rhythm beyond the first 5-7 minutes, Waldo's scorecard-oriented style takes over, and Gaziev's lack of sustained output becomes a decisive liability. The 30ft cage amplifies this advantage by providing more space for Waldo to reset, circle, and maintain his preferred pace without being trapped in the kind of close-quarters exchanges where Gaziev's power becomes most dangerous.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios for Waldo
If Waldo over-commits on volume and enters the pocket in straight lines without proper head movement or defensive awareness, Gaziev's compact power (KO/Sub across 12 of 14 wins, representing 85.7% finish rate) becomes a real equalizer. A single poorly timed entry into a right cross, uppercut, or overhand can erase three winning minutes in heavyweight—this is the inherent risk of fighting a finisher at 255 pounds. Gaziev's early-round finishing ability (9 Round 1 wins) means he's particularly dangerous in the first 5 minutes when he's fresh and can generate maximum power. Waldo's volume approach requires him to enter range repeatedly, and each entry creates a potential finishing opportunity for Gaziev. The key risk is Waldo becoming too comfortable with his volume advantage and abandoning defensive fundamentals—if he stands flat-footed in exchanges or fails to exit cleanly after combinations, Gaziev's counter-striking and opportunistic finishing instincts can turn the fight in a single sequence. Historical heavyweight data shows that even fighters with clear statistical advantages can lose via one-shot power, and Gaziev's profile suggests he has the tools to capitalize on defensive lapses.
Waldo does his best work in structured striking exchanges where he can control distance, maintain rhythm, and accumulate volume without positional chaos. If Gaziev forces clinch clashes, snap-downs, or wild scrambles where positional awareness breaks down, the fight becomes more coin-flip and shifts away from Waldo's disciplined point-fighting template. Gaziev's submission ability (3 career submissions, including a rear naked choke win) means he's dangerous in grappling exchanges, and his takedown defense (100% in UFC sample) suggests he can create scrambles where his finishing instincts become relevant. The risk for Waldo is that chaotic exchanges neutralize his volume advantage—in a scramble, it doesn't matter that he lands 5.64 strikes per minute in structured striking; what matters is who ends up in the dominant position or who lands the fight-ending shot. Gaziev's opportunistic style is built for these moments—he's shown the ability to capitalize on opponent mistakes in transitions, whether via submission (rear naked choke vs Greg Velasco) or ground strikes (KO/TKO vs Martin Buday). If the fight devolves into a brawl or series of wild exchanges, Waldo's statistical advantages become less relevant, and Gaziev's finishing ability becomes the primary factor determining the outcome.
📋 Likely Gameplan for Waldo
Expect Waldo to lean heavily on jab-heavy combinations, low kicks, and constant circling in the 30ft cage. The goal is to force Gaziev to reset repeatedly, making him pay for every attempt to plant his feet and swing big. The jab serves multiple purposes: it scores points, maintains distance, disrupts Gaziev's rhythm, and sets up follow-up combinations. Low kicks to Gaziev's lead leg will slow his movement, reduce his ability to generate power, and create openings for Waldo's volume combinations. The constant circling and movement in the large cage prevents Gaziev from establishing a stationary base where he can generate maximum power, forcing him to chase and reset, which drains energy and reduces finishing opportunities. Waldo's 5.64 SLpM output means he can land 15-20 strikes per round while maintaining this movement-based approach, creating significant scorecard advantages that compound over three rounds. The key is maintaining discipline—not getting drawn into extended exchanges, not standing still in the pocket, and not abandoning the movement-based template that maximizes his statistical advantages.
He should absolutely avoid standing still in the pocket trading power with Gaziev. Short combinations (2-3 strikes) into clean exits, not extended brawls, maximize his statistical edge and minimize Gaziev's finishing windows. The goal is to land volume without creating opportunities for Gaziev to counter with fight-ending power. Waldo's 52% strike defense and lower SApM profile suggest he's good at avoiding clean shots when he maintains defensive awareness, but if he abandons that discipline and engages in prolonged exchanges, Gaziev's compact power becomes a real threat. The risk-managed approach means Waldo should throw combinations, land clean, and immediately exit to reset at distance—this prevents Gaziev from timing counters and maintains Waldo's volume advantage without exposing him to unnecessary risk. This strategy is particularly important in the first round when Gaziev is freshest and most dangerous—if Waldo can survive the early minutes without taking significant damage, his volume and cardio advantages become increasingly decisive as the fight progresses.
🚀 Shamil Gaziev Key Advantages
Gaziev is fundamentally built to end fights early, with 12 of his 14 career wins (85.7%) coming inside the distance. A massive share of those finishes occur in Round 1 (9 of 14 wins, representing 64% of his victories), demonstrating his ability to capitalize on early opportunities. His finishing profile combines heavy hands (9 KO/TKO wins, representing 64% of his victories) with opportunistic submissions (3 submission wins, including a rear naked choke) when opponents panic-wrestle or create grappling transitions. This dual-threat finishing ability makes him dangerous in multiple phases—he can end fights with strikes in the pocket or capitalize on scrambles with submission attempts. If he forces chaotic exchanges or catches Waldo during a defensive lapse, the underdog has real one-shot or snap-sub equity that can erase Waldo's volume advantages in a single sequence. Gaziev's recent performances demonstrate this finishing ability: a Round 1 KO/TKO of Thomas Petersen (3:12), a Round 2 KO/TKO of Martin Buday (0:56), and a Round 1 submission of Greg Velasco (2:38) all show his ability to capitalize on opportunities quickly. The key for Gaziev is creating those opportunities—if he can force Waldo into extended exchanges, clinch battles, or wild scrambles, his finishing instincts become the primary factor determining the outcome.
While Gaziev's offensive wrestling numbers are modest (low TD15, 30% TDAcc), his takedown defense has looked excellent in the UFC sample (100% TDDef, though the sample size is limited). This defensive ability means that if Waldo ever chooses to mix in wrestling or clinch work, Gaziev may actually be more dangerous in those scrambles than he appears on paper. His submission ability (3 career submissions) and opportunistic finishing instincts mean he can snatch necks, reverse position, or capitalize on transitions to create finishing opportunities. The risk for Waldo is that attempting takedowns or engaging in clinch work creates the kind of chaotic exchanges where Gaziev's finishing ability becomes most relevant. If Waldo abandons his volume-striking template and tries to wrestle, he may actually be playing into Gaziev's strengths rather than his own. However, given Waldo's own modest wrestling numbers (low TD15, low TDAcc), it's unlikely he'll attempt significant takedown volume, making this advantage for Gaziev more theoretical than practical. The more relevant scenario is Gaziev creating scrambles off of Waldo's entries or forcing clinch exchanges where his finishing instincts can come into play.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios for Gaziev
If Gaziev cannot meaningfully hurt Waldo in the first 7–8 minutes, the combination of volume, cardio, and defensive edge will almost certainly push the cards to Waldo. This is the fundamental risk of Gaziev's style: he's built to finish early, and if he doesn't, his lack of sustained output becomes a decisive liability. Low-volume, power-dependent heavyweights tend to look increasingly flat when forced into a high-output kickboxing match they are losing—the energy expenditure of chasing, resetting, and defending against constant volume drains their ability to generate power, and their lack of output means they can't win rounds on activity. Gaziev's 2.43 SLpM output means he'll likely land 7-10 strikes per round, while Waldo can land 15-20+ strikes per round at his 5.64 SLpM pace. That 2:1 or 3:1 strike differential, combined with Waldo's superior defensive metrics, creates a scoring framework that heavily favors Waldo. As the fight progresses beyond the first round, Gaziev's finishing windows become narrower (he's less fresh, Waldo is more aware of the threat), and Waldo's volume advantages become more pronounced. Historical data shows that fighters with Gaziev's profile (high finish rate, low volume, early-round dependent) struggle significantly when fights go the distance, especially against volume-oriented opponents like Waldo.
The 30ft cage is structurally bad for a fighter like Gaziev who needs to trap an opponent and swing big. The large octagon provides ample space for Waldo to circle, reset, and maintain distance, making it extremely difficult for Gaziev to create the kind of prolonged exchanges where his power becomes most dangerous. If Waldo consistently circles, re-centers, and refuses to be herded into corners or the fence, Gaziev will struggle to plant his feet, generate maximum power, and land the clean shots he needs to finish fights. The large cage also amplifies Waldo's volume advantage by providing more space for him to reset after combinations, maintain his preferred distance, and avoid being trapped in the kind of close-quarters exchanges where Gaziev's compact power becomes most relevant. Historical data shows that large-cage environments favor volume-oriented fighters who can use movement and distance control, while disadvantaging power-dependent fighters who need to trap opponents and create stationary exchanges. This structural advantage for Waldo compounds his statistical advantages, making it even more difficult for Gaziev to create the finishing opportunities his style requires.
📋 Likely Gameplan for Gaziev
Gaziev should look to find counters and explosive sequences—close distance suddenly, mix levels (hands → takedown feint → clinch), force scrambles or land a mid-round finish. His compact power and finishing instincts mean he doesn't need to outwork Waldo round-for-round; instead, he needs to create moments where his finishing ability becomes decisive. The key is timing: when Waldo commits to combinations or enters range, Gaziev should look to counter with heavy shots (right cross, uppercut, overhand) that can end the fight in a single sequence. His 9 Round 1 wins demonstrate his ability to capitalize on early opportunities, so he should be aggressive in the first 5 minutes when he's freshest and Waldo hasn't yet established his volume rhythm. If he can't find a quick finish, he'll need to make the fight messy and avoid prolonged volume exchanges where Waldo's statistical advantages become most relevant.
If Gaziev can force clinch exchanges or create scrambles, his submission ability (3 career submissions) and opportunistic finishing instincts become relevant. His takedown defense (100% in UFC sample) suggests he can create these scrambles without being taken down consistently, and his ability to reverse position or capitalize on transitions can create finishing opportunities. The goal is to neutralize Waldo's volume advantage by forcing chaotic exchanges where statistical differentials become less relevant. If Gaziev can trap Waldo in the clinch, create snap-downs, or force wild scrambles, the fight shifts away from Waldo's disciplined point-fighting template and toward Gaziev's finishing-oriented style. However, given Waldo's own modest wrestling numbers, it's unlikely Waldo will attempt significant takedown volume, making this advantage for Gaziev more theoretical than practical unless Gaziev can force these exchanges himself.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a significant structural advantage for Waldo's volume-oriented style. The large cage provides ample space for Waldo to circle, reset, and maintain distance, making it extremely difficult for Gaziev to trap him and create the kind of prolonged exchanges where his power becomes most dangerous. Waldo's ability to use movement and distance control in the large cage amplifies his volume advantage by providing more space for him to reset after combinations, maintain his preferred distance, and avoid being trapped in close-quarters exchanges. Conversely, the large cage is structurally disadvantageous for Gaziev, who needs to trap opponents and swing big to generate maximum power. Historical data shows that large-cage environments favor volume-oriented fighters who can use movement and distance control, while disadvantaging power-dependent fighters who need to trap opponents and create stationary exchanges. This structural advantage for Waldo compounds his statistical advantages, making it even more difficult for Gaziev to create the finishing opportunities his style requires.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a fundamental stylistic mismatch: Waldo's elite volume (5.64 SLpM) and superior defensive metrics (52% strike defense vs 44%) create a scoring framework that heavily favors him over three rounds. The 2.21 SLpM differential means Waldo can land 15-20+ strikes per round while Gaziev lands 7-10, creating significant strike differentials that judges consistently reward. Combined with Waldo's better damage management (lower SApM, higher strike defense), this creates a damage economy where Waldo accumulates damage while limiting the clean power looks that Gaziev truly needs. Gaziev's finishing profile (12 of 14 wins ITD, 85.7% finish rate) suggests he can end fights early, but his low volume (2.43 SLpM) and lower strike defense (44%) mean he struggles to win rounds on activity if he can't find a finish. The key technical battle is whether Gaziev can create finishing opportunities before Waldo's volume advantages compound over three rounds.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: volume accumulation vs early finishing threat, defensive efficiency vs power counters, and cardio sustainability vs explosive bursts. Waldo's 5.64 SLpM output means he can rack up significant strike differentials (30-40+ strikes landed) over three rounds, while Gaziev's 2.43 SLpM output means he'll struggle to win rounds on activity if he can't find a finish. The defensive differential (52% vs 44% strike defense) compounds this advantage—Waldo absorbs fewer clean shots while landing more, creating a visible contrast that judges consistently reward. Gaziev's finishing threat (9 Round 1 wins, 64% of victories) means he's most dangerous in the first 5-7 minutes when he's fresh and can generate maximum power, but if Waldo survives the early rounds, his volume and cardio advantages become increasingly decisive. The 30ft cage amplifies Waldo's advantages by providing more space for movement and resetting, while making it harder for Gaziev to trap opponents and create finishing opportunities.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Decision (41% probability), achieved through consistent volume accumulation, superior defensive efficiency, and cardio advantages over three rounds. Waldo's KO/TKO path (24%) becomes viable if his volume accumulation creates visible damage or if Gaziev's lower strike defense leads to late-round stoppages. Gaziev's upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (18%) via counter-striking or explosive sequences in the first 5-7 minutes when he's freshest and Waldo hasn't yet established his volume rhythm. Gaziev's submission path (9%) requires creating scrambles or clinch exchanges where his opportunistic finishing instincts become relevant, though this is less likely given Waldo's disciplined point-fighting template. The underdog's decision path (5%) requires maintaining competitive output throughout three rounds—a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely given his 2.43 SLpM output and Waldo's volume advantages. The 30ft cage structure favors Waldo's movement-based approach and makes it harder for Gaziev to create the finishing opportunities his style requires.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 41% | Fair: +144
GOOD VALUE
Model: 18% | Fair: +456
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 46% | Fair: +117
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Waldo's volume edge – scorecard dominance over three rounds in a big cage is often mispriced relative to raw power.
- • Overweights early KO volatility – heavy reliance on Gaziev landing clean in narrow windows.
- • Big-cage dynamics – more space favors the higher-output, better-conditioned athlete.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Primary lane: volume and scorecards across three rounds.
Accumulative damage leading to a late stoppage or corner retirement.
Low-probability opportunistic subs from hurt opponents or scrambles.
💥Outcome Distribution - Shamil Gaziev
Best lane via explosive early counters or swarm finishes.
Requires sustained output in a style he rarely uses.
Opportunistic subs if Waldo shoots or falls into scramble-heavy sequences.
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Shamil Gaziev
- • First 7–8 minutes: primary KO/Sub window before pace takes over.
- • Force chaos: clinch breaks, flurries, and scrambles instead of clean boxing rounds.
- • Capitalize on mistakes: counters when Waldo resets or over-extends.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- • Stack volume: every minute where Waldo out-lands comfortably stacks win probability.
- • Stay disciplined: avoid ego-brawls and maintain defensive responsibility.
- • Make power miss: the more Gaziev swings and whiffs, the faster his finishing equity erodes.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear statistical lean to Waldo via volume and defense, but heavyweight one-shot variance and Gaziev's finish rate keep risk meaningful.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant SLpM and volume advantage for Waldo.
- • Better strike defense and lower SApM profile.
- • Proven ability to win decisions at UFC level.
- • Large cage favors movement and pace, not brawling.
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Gaziev's early KO/Sub equity is real and difficult to fully price down in heavyweights.
- • Any defensive lapse from Waldo can flip the fight in a single sequence.
- • Limited UFC sample size on Gaziev leaves some uncertainty around his true ceiling.
🏁Executive Summary
Waldo Cortes-Acosta's elite heavyweight volume (5.64 SLpM), superior defensive metrics (52% strike defense vs Gaziev's 44%), and proven ability to comfortably fight three-round distances in a 30ft cage give him a clear statistical edge over the more explosive but lower-volume Shamil Gaziev. The 2.21 SLpM differential represents one of the largest volume gaps in the heavyweight division, creating a fundamental stylistic mismatch that compounds over time. Across 100 hypothetical fight simulations, Waldo simply out-lands and out-works Gaziev, pulling away on the scorecards as the minutes stack up. His ability to maintain 5.64 strikes per minute while absorbing less damage (superior strike defense and lower SApM) creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially when combined with his proven decision-winning template (8 of 15 wins via decision, 53.3% finish rate). The 30ft cage amplifies these advantages by providing more space for Waldo to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred distance, while making it extremely difficult for Gaziev to trap opponents and create the kind of stationary exchanges where his power becomes most dangerous. Gaziev retains very real KO/Sub equity, especially early (9 of 14 wins in Round 1, 64% of his victories), but when the fight does not end in a chaotic sequence within the first 7-8 minutes, his lack of sustained output (2.43 SLpM) and lower strike defense (44%) become decisive liabilities. The matchup fundamentally favors Waldo's volume-oriented, decision-winning style over Gaziev's power-dependent, early-finishing approach, with the large cage and three-round format further tilting the scales toward the Dominican's statistical advantages.
The probabilistic breakdown reveals a clear hierarchy of likely outcomes: Waldo by Decision (41% probability) stands as the single most likely result, achieved through consistent volume accumulation, superior defensive metrics, and scorecard advantages that compound over three rounds. This outcome represents the intersection of Waldo's proven decision-winning template (8 career decision wins) and Gaziev's inability to match his output or win rounds on activity. Waldo by KO/TKO (24% probability) becomes viable via accumulation and attritional damage—his 5.64 SLpM output means he can land 15-20+ strikes per round, and over three rounds, that volume can create visible damage, cuts, or fatigue that leads to late-round stoppages. Gaziev's primary upset lanes center on early KO/TKO (18% probability) via intercept strikes, counters, or chaotic exchanges where his compact power can end the fight in a single sequence, and opportunistic submissions (9% probability) in scrambles or transitions where his finishing instincts can capitalize on positional mistakes. However, if Waldo survives the first round and keeps the fight at pace and at range—avoiding extended exchanges, maintaining movement, and refusing to be trapped—the matchup increasingly trends toward a clear Waldo scorecard win. The 30ft cage, three-round format, and Waldo's superior cardio and volume management create a structural environment that heavily favors his statistical advantages, making Gaziev's finishing windows narrower and Waldo's decision path more likely as the fight progresses.
Final Prediction: Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Decision most likely (41% probability), with additional Waldo KO/TKO equity (24%) via accumulation and attritional damage over three rounds. Gaziev's primary upset lanes are early KO/TKO (18%) or opportunistic submissions (9%), but if Waldo survives the first 7-8 minutes and maintains his volume-striking template, the matchup increasingly trends toward a clear Waldo scorecard win. The 68% total win probability for Waldo reflects his significant statistical advantages in volume, defense, and cardio, while the 32% total win probability for Gaziev acknowledges his real finishing equity, especially early, but recognizes that his power-dependent style becomes increasingly less likely to succeed as fights progress beyond the first round.