Ryan Loder vs Ismail Naurdiev
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker • Saturday, November 22, 2025
Click each fighter's name or profile image to open their full analytics profile, including cardio trends, defense and finishing history.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Ismail Naurdiev
"The Austrian Wonderboy"
24-8-0 • Middleweight
Defensive, pace-controlling veteran with deep experience
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights – Ryan Loder
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Azamat Bekoev | L | TKO (punches) (R1, 2:44) |
| 2024-08-24 | Robert Valentin | W | TKO (elbows) (R2, 1:49) |
| 2023-08-12 | Lajuan Davis | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-13 | Leon Shahbazyan | W | TKO (punches) (R1, 1:25) |
| 2023-01-13 | Troy Green | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights – Ismail Naurdiev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | Jun Yong Park | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-26 | Bruno Silva | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-08 | Tahar Hadbi | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 1:10) |
| 2022-12-17 | Vadym Kutsyi | L | TKO (punches) (R1, 3:23) |
| 2022-10-19 | Marcin Bandel | L | Submission - Armbar (R1, 1:20) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score
Combines composite striking and grappling for each man. Loder's 72.6/56.0 vs Naurdiev's 61.6/41.4 reflects more raw finishing tools for Loder, while Naurdiev plays a cleaner, lower-risk game built around defense and distance.
💪Cardio Score
35.2 vs 73.0 encodes a major endurance gap – Naurdiev has a robust 15-minute sample at a controlled pace, while Loder's game is more front-loaded and explosive, with more questions if he cannot create decisive damage early.
🎯Overall Rating
Averaging tech and cardio gives a simple picture: Loder is built to win via high-impact moments, Naurdiev to win via rounds. The analytics lean toward the fighter whose style is more robust over 15 minutes when chaos does not immediately break out.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Front-loaded power and submissions from Loder vs Naurdiev's defensive, cardio-led game in a big cage.
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Distance Dynamics
The 30-foot cage amplifies Naurdiev's defensive tools: more lateral space to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred striking range where his jab and body kicks can score without committing to high-risk exchanges. However, Loder's pressure style and southpaw angles are designed to compress this space—walking Naurdiev down, forcing clinch entries, and creating scrambles where his power and submission threat become dangerous. Over 100 simulations, the large cage helps Naurdiev survive more sequences and bank minutes, but does not erase the early finishing threat presented when Loder gets both hands on him in the clinch or on the mat.
🎯Technical Contrast
Loder carries the superior early finishing toolkit: higher output (5.76 SLpM vs 3.69), sharper accuracy (71% vs 53%), and genuine knockout power, particularly from southpaw angles and in clinch-to-mat sequences. Naurdiev's striking is functional but largely in service of his defensive, minute-winning game. On the mat, Loder's submission threat (1.57 Sub/15) and scrambling ability give him the more dangerous offensive grappling profile, while Naurdiev's takedown defense (73%) is reactive and designed to keep exchanges standing. The model sees Loder winning when he forces early chaos, clinch entries, and scrambles; Naurdiev wins when he maintains distance, resets frequently, and banks rounds through consistent scoring and defense.
🧩Key Battle Areas
The critical phases are early pressure, fence exchanges, and third-round cardio. Early, Loder must walk Naurdiev down, force clinch entries, and create scrambles where his power and submissions can end the fight before defensive reads settle. Along the fence, underhook battles and head position will decide whether Loder stacks control time and damage or gets forced to reset. In Round 3, Naurdiev's superior cardio (73.0 vs 35.2) and pace control become a major scoring lever; if he can sustain his defensive output and avoid extended grappling, he can flip a close fight. Loder, by contrast, needs to cash in on his early KO/submission equity or at least do enough visible damage to offset later minute-winning trends.
🏁Final Prediction
The model leans toward Naurdiev on balance: his defensive craft, pace control, and cardio create more consistent paths to bank rounds, especially in the large cage where his distance management tools are maximized. Loder remains live as a high-impact outlier through early power shots, clinch elbows, and submissions in scrambles, but those moments occur in a narrower slice of simulations. Overall, minutes favor Naurdiev's methodical defense and decision-leaning style; moments favor Loder's early finishing windows and scramble chaos.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Middleweight volatility, scheme mismatch and whether market prices fully respect Naurdiev's decision paths.
📊Market Odds (BetOnline)
🤖Analytical Model (Moneyline Fair Lines)
💎Value Opportunities (Directional)
Model has ~46% of Naurdiev wins coming via decision; if market prices him too heavily toward KO, method-of-victory decision lines can carry hidden value.
Around 26% of Loder wins cluster as KOs; generous plus money on his KO props can align with his power + accuracy profile, especially early.
Model projects ~52% go-to-decision; if totals are priced as if chaos is inevitable, overs and decision props may quietly out-perform.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical simulations based on finish profiles, defense and cardio
💥Outcome Distribution – Ryan Loder
Power sequences and scramble chaos, especially early in the fight.
Front-choke and back-take windows if Naurdiev shoots sloppily or scrambles hard.
Less common: banks early damage but can't close the show, then survives late.
🏆Outcome Distribution – Ismail Naurdiev
Primary route – a defensive, jab-and-kick game that wins rounds rather than hunts chaos.
Attritional damage and counters if Loder fades or over-chases takedowns.
Low-frequency reactive chokes or opportunistic grappling when Loder is hurt.
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3-Round Middleweight Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity – Ryan Loder
- • First 7–10 minutes: highest KO/sub equity before Naurdiev fully maps his entries and patterns.
- • Fence sequences: forcing clinch-to-mat exchanges to make his power and submissions matter more than round-winning.
- • Scramble chaos: benefit from wild phases where his aggression can break structure.
🎯Progressive Dominance – Ismail Naurdiev
- • Distance management: stay on the outside and treat the cage like a 30-ft track to limit trench time.
- • Reset cadence: lots of small breaks and jabs instead of extended combos, keeping the fight low variance.
- • Late-round optics: stronger cardio means he should own the body language and output in R3 if he avoids big damage early.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Balancing Naurdiev's minute-winning profile against Loder's early knockout and submission volatility.
Clear structural lean toward Naurdiev on minutes and cardio, but Loder's early power and submission game keep risk well above average.
Supporting Factors
- • Naurdiev's superior defensive metrics and large-cage fit.
- • Proven 15-minute engine and pace control.
- • Strong decision-heavy win profile aligning with matchup.
- • Ability to cool momentum with reactive takedowns.
Risk Factors
- • Loder's early KO and submission threat, especially in R1.
- • Scramble-heavy sequences near the fence.
- • Limited UFC samples inflating some metrics.
- • Middleweight power variance always live.
🏁Executive Summary
In a 30‑ft cage, Naurdiev's defensive craft, cardio and decision-heavy profile usually carry the minutes once early danger is navigated. Loder, however, has enough early KO/submission equity to turn any clean entry or scramble into a fight-ending sequence.
Prediction: Naurdiev by decision in the majority of extended fights, with Loder by early KO or opportunistic submission as the primary hedge whenever you forecast prolonged chaos in R1–R2.