Marek Bujlo vs Denzel Freeman
UFC Qatar • Saturday, November 22, 2025
Click each fighter's name or profile image to open their full analytics profile with heavyweight striking, grappling and round history.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights – Marek Bujlo
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Gurami Zviadadze | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 0:56) |
| 2025-05-10 | Michael Douglas | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 0:35) |
| 2024-11-23 | Tomasz Kolcun | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:28) |
| 2024-11-09 | Blazej Nagorski | W | SUB - Ankle Lock (R1, 0:54) |
| 2024-04-05 | Igor Krukowski | W | SUB - Kimura (R1, 1:42) |
Last 5 Fights – Denzel Freeman
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Hugo Cunha | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:10) |
| 2024-09-20 | Steven Asplund | W | SUB - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 1:17) |
| 2023-06-16 | Isaiah Pinson | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-17 | Raiden Kovacs | W | TKO - Head Kick and Punches (R1, 0:27) |
| 2021-07-02 | Duane Crespo | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 0:45) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score
Derived from composite striking and grappling. Bujlo's 78/86 vs Freeman's 81/71 reflects a pure grappler vs striker dynamic – Freeman edges the stand-up, while Bujlo holds a massive advantage in top control and submissions.
💪Cardio Score
75 vs 78 encodes that Freeman has proven second-round finishing and deeper experience, while Bujlo is almost entirely a Round 1 fighter. Past R1, the uncertainty around Bujlo's gas tank becomes a material risk.
🎯Overall Rating
A simple average of technical and cardio scores, summarising who is better equipped to win minutes rather than just moments in a 3-round heavyweight bout.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊Striking Composite
Freeman holds a slight edge here (81 vs 78) and brings more diverse KO tools – head kicks, straight shots and counters. In open space, he is more comfortable leading and punishing reckless entries.
🤼Grappling Composite
Bujlo's 86 vs Freeman's 71 tells the story: if this becomes a true grappling fight, he is an enormous favourite. Once on top, his ability to progress positions and chase submissions is significantly higher than Freeman's ability to survive and stand up.
Technical Radar Comparison
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Early submission storm from Bujlo vs Freeman's range striking and proven second-round finishing in a big cage.
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Matchup Dynamics & Cage Context
This is a three-round heavyweight bout where both fighters bring serious finishing power but fundamentally different win conditions. Bujlo is a pure grappling finisher with all his fights ending inside the first round; if he gets on top early, he rarely lets opponents off the hook. Freeman, by contrast, has been tested against stronger opposition in LFA, winning a title over Hugo Cunha and showing that his power and composure carry into Round 2. The 30-foot cage tilts geography toward Freeman, giving him more space to stay upright and play the distance game, while making it trickier for Bujlo to consistently force the fence and clinch.
🎯Technical Breakdown
On paper, Bujlo is the more accomplished submission grappler: 1.8 subs/15, high TD volume and a portfolio of quick finishes via leg locks and upper-body attacks. His positional control and ability to transition from half-guard to dominant spots are real weapons. Freeman's edge lies in the stand-up – he throws slightly more (4.8 vs 4.2 SLpM) with a very dangerous head-kick and boxing arsenal, and he has already demonstrated he can hurt quality heavyweights on the feet. The statistical vulnerability for Bujlo is the complete absence of late minutes on his record; for Freeman, it is defending layered entries and avoiding being glued to the mat early.
🧩Key Battle Areas
The fight turns on three phases: (1) the first 90–120 seconds, where Bujlo must either secure top or at least force clinch chains; (2) the fence, where Bujlo's ability to lock his hands and Freeman's ability to pummel, frame and circle out decide who is dictating grappling opportunities; and (3) the transition to Round 2, where evidence suggests Freeman level-raises while Bujlo enters largely unknown territory. If Freeman can keep early grappling exchanges limited and reset to space, the combination of volume, cardio and experience tends to tilt the remaining minutes firmly his way.
🏁Final Prediction
Across simulations the story is clear: Bujlo wins quickly or he tends not to win at all, whereas Freeman has multiple paths that remain live deep into the fight. Our 62–38 lean in favour of Freeman reflects the belief that the large cage and better proven cardio make it more likely he survives the early grappling storm, steadies the geography and either finds a KO of his own or racks up damage on the feet. Bujlo remains a very real early submission risk, but that risk is concentrated in a relatively narrow slice of fight-time.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Heavyweight volatility, grappling vs striking and how current prices line up with our model.
📊Market Odds (BetOnline)
🤖Analytical Model (Moneyline Fair Lines)
💎Value Opportunities (Directional)
Model sees ~45% of Freeman wins by KO – large cage plus striking edge and Bujlo's unknown durability beyond R1 support a finish-heavy angle when prices are reasonable.
Around 18% of Bujlo wins cluster as subs; any generous plus money on his submission line reflects the real possibility he converts the first clean takedown into a finish.
Both men finish at a high clip; with Bujlo's 100% R1 record and Freeman's R2 killer instinct, unders remain live in most scenarios where grappling or striking domination appears early.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical simulations based on finish profiles, cardio and matchup dynamics
🏆Outcome Distribution – Marek Bujlo
Primary route – early takedown into overwhelming top pressure and submission chains.
Ground-and-pound from dominant positions or attritional damage if Freeman cannot escape.
Low-frequency path where he racks control but never quite finds the finish.
💥Outcome Distribution – Denzel Freeman
Primary path – head kicks and boxing combinations once Bujlo slows or entries become predictable.
Range control and consistent scoring when Bujlo's entries are contained and respect is earned early.
Rare reactive chokes or late grappling sequences when Bujlo is hurt or exhausted.
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3-Round Heavyweight Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity – Marek Bujlo
- • First 3 minutes: highest sub/KO equity before Freeman's reads and counters calibrate.
- • Fence wrestling: drive to the cage, chain single–double–trip sequences and settle on top.
- • Heavy top pressure: prioritise control + GNP to force desperate scrambles that open up submissions.
🎯Progressive Dominance – Denzel Freeman
- • Distance management: use jab, kicks and lateral movement to keep Bujlo outside level-change range.
- • Sprawl-and-go: punish naked shots with knees and uppercuts, then re-center rather than accepting clinch.
- • R2–R3 pressure: once Bujlo slows, increase volume and aim to either finish or bank a clear decision.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Balancing Freeman's résumé and striking edge against Bujlo's immediate submission danger.
Solid lean to Freeman when incorporating cage size, cardio and strength-of-schedule, but early grappling volatility keeps uncertainty elevated.
Supporting Factors
- • Freeman has proven himself at LFA championship level.
- • Better late-round data and finishing in R2.
- • Large cage reduces Bujlo's ability to trap and clinch.
- • Freeman owns the cleaner and more diverse striking game.
Risk Factors
- • Bujlo's first-round finish rate and submission depth.
- • Limited UFC-level data for both men.
- • Heavyweight volatility – single shots can overturn reads.
- • Potential underestimation of Bujlo's cardio if fight extends.
🏁Executive Summary
Freeman is the more battle-tested heavyweight with range weapons, cardio and a large cage supporting his preferred game, while Bujlo is an extremely dangerous but largely untested early finisher. Our modelling rewards Freeman's proven level and multi-round functionality, but cannot dismiss the very real possibility that Bujlo turns a single clean takedown into a quick finish.
Prediction: Freeman by KO/TKO or decision in the majority of extended fights, with Bujlo by early submission as the primary hedge path whenever you expect prolonged grappling in the opening round.