Ismael Bonfim vs Chris Padilla
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Apex
Saturday, November 8, 2025
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Efficient Range Boxer
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Momentum Builder
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Ismael Bonfim
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Nazim Sadykhov | L | KO/TKO - Doctor Stoppage (R1, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-04 | Vinc Pichel | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-01 | Benoit Saint Denis | L | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 4:48) |
| 2023-01-21 | Terrance McKinney | W | KO/TKO - Flying Knee (R2, 2:17) |
| 2022-09-06 | Nariman Abbasov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Chris Padilla
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Jai Herbert | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-07 | Rongzhu | W | TKO - Doctor Stoppage (R2, 4:14) |
| 2024-04-27 | James Llontop | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 4:33) |
| 2024-02-24 | Justin Jaynes | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-07 | Serob Minasyan | W | Submission - Anaconda Choke (R1, 3:12) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (69 vs 51) and Grappling Composite (36 vs 45). Measures complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures endurance and ability to maintain pace.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score for a holistic view combining skill and conditioning.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, StrAcc, StrDef, and strikes absorbed per minute to capture offensive output, precision, and defense.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from TDs per 15min, TD accuracy, TD defense, and submissions per 15min to evaluate takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Ismael Bonfim Key Advantages
Bonfim's 55% striking accuracy paired with 70% strike defense creates a significant efficiency gap that defines this matchup. His 5.73 SLpM output means he's landing nearly 6 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 3.1 per minute—a favorable exchange rate that compounds over 15 minutes of action.
In open space, this translates to winning most standup exchanges. His straight punches through the middle and low calf kicks on exits punish Padilla's forward pressure while maintaining defensive responsibility. The 13-point defensive gap means Bonfim avoids damage while dealing it consistently—his primary path to victory in this matchup.
The 25-foot Apex cage accelerates entries and makes Padilla's pressure style more viable, but it also makes Bonfim's counters more devastating. His straight right down the pipe and intercepting flying knees (see McKinney KO) are perfectly suited to punish linear forward movement.
When Padilla commits to double-jab entries or shoots for clinch control, Bonfim has proven he can time the knee or uppercut through the middle. This counter threat forces Padilla into more cautious entries, paradoxically favoring Bonfim's range striking game.
Bonfim's ability to maintain 5.73 SLpM while keeping 76% takedown defense gives him dual-threat capability: he can punish at range while denying Padilla's wrestling entries. His first-layer TDD (sprawl-underhook-immediate turn) is crucial to keeping geography mid-octagon rather than fence-pinned.
Efficient 2-3 piece combinations at range, exit with low kicks, circle off any clinch entry—this tempo denies Padilla the extended fence cycles he needs to accumulate control time and round-stealing takedowns. If Bonfim maintains this discipline, he controls pace and location.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Padilla successfully corrals Bonfim to the fence and initiates extended pummeling exchanges, the cumulative hip tax reduces Bonfim's ability to generate power on exits and slows his footwork. Each 30-60 second fence cycle drains energy without visible damage but compounds over rounds.
Prolonged clinch sequences also negate Bonfim's striking advantages—when locked in collar ties or body locks, his superior accuracy and volume become irrelevant. The longer Padilla keeps these exchanges vertical against the cage, the more he banks control time and steals rounds on optics.
Short elbows in the clinch can open cuts that dramatically shift fight momentum and judge perception. Even if Bonfim is winning the striking exchanges in open space, a late-round cut from accumulated clinch elbows can make the fight appear more competitive or even favor Padilla.
Doctor stoppages due to cuts (see Sadykhov fight) create finish opportunities for Padilla without requiring knockout power or submission skill. If blood flows and referee attention increases, it validates Padilla's grinding approach and can flip scorecards in close rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish the jab-cross rhythm early and maintain center-octagon positioning through constant lateral movement. Land 2-3 piece combinations, then exit with low calf kicks to slow Padilla's forward pressure and create distance for the next exchange.
On first-layer takedown defense, use sprawl-underhook-immediate turn technique to deny clinch entries before they develop. The key is not just stopping the takedown, but immediately creating separation and returning to striking range where his efficiency edge compounds. Never allow Padilla to settle into extended pummeling sequences.
Time intercepting knees and uppercuts through the middle against Padilla's linear entries. When Padilla commits to double-jab to clinch or shoots level changes, that's the window for explosive counter-striking. Reference the McKinney flying knee KO—same setup applies here.
If clinch contact occurs, immediately circle off the fence rather than engaging in strength battles. Use footwork and angles to create resets—every restart to center favors Bonfim's game. The more discrete exchanges and fewer continuous grappling sequences, the better his win probability becomes.
🚀 Chris Padilla Key Advantages
Padilla's 1.56 TD/15min paired with a perfect 100% TDD in UFC competition so far creates the blueprint for his victory path. His ability to initiate wrestling exchanges while being untouchable on defense means he can impose grappling pressure without fearing reversals or counters.
In the 25-foot cage, his fence wrestling cycles become exponentially more viable—corral Bonfim to the fence, work double-unders or singles, accumulate 30-60 second control blocks that bank rounds. Even if he doesn't complete takedowns, the threat alone taxes Bonfim's energy and opens striking entries. This grind-and-control blueprint has stolen rounds against strikers before.
Padilla's 74" reach versus Bonfim's 71.5" (plus 4" leg reach advantage at 39" vs 35") gives him the tools to control distance when he chooses to strike. His jab can touch Bonfim first, and his kicks land before Bonfim's counters arrive—physical advantages that matter in tight spaces.
The small cage amplifies this paradoxically: while it helps his pressure game by reducing escape routes, it also means his length controls the initial engagement range. Double jab to clinch becomes more effective when the fence is 3-4 steps away rather than 6-7. This physicality creates windows for his wrestling entries.
Padilla's 81% finish rate (13 of 16 wins) shows he rarely needs scorecards when executing his game. His 5 submission wins (31% of victories) include opportunistic RNCs from scrambles, while his 8 TKO wins (50% of victories) come from accumulative pressure rather than one-shot power.
If this fight becomes a grindy, attritional war—extended clinch exchanges, cuts from elbows, cumulative body work—Padilla's finishing instincts shine. His doctor-stoppage TKO of Rongzhu and RNC of Llontop show he capitalizes on openings created by sustained pressure. The longer the fight stays ugly, the more dangerous Padilla becomes.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Padilla's 57% strike defense creates a 13-point gap compared to Bonfim's 70%, meaning he absorbs nearly 1 in 4 more strikes in open-space exchanges. If the fight stays at kicking and punching range without clinch interludes, those clean shots accumulate on his record and sway judges.
Extended standup sequences favor Bonfim's superior accuracy (55% vs 51%) and volume (5.73 vs 4.13 SLpM). Every minute spent in open space without fence control is a minute where Padilla's path to victory shrinks—his advantages require physical contact and grappling pressure, not distance striking.
Padilla's straight-line forward pressure, while effective for cutting the cage, creates predictable entry patterns that Bonfim can time. When committing to double-jab-to-clinch sequences or level changes, Padilla presents windows for intercepting knees and uppercuts through the middle—see Bonfim's McKinney finish.
One mistimed entry or one successful Bonfim counter could end the fight explosively, erasing any accumulated control time or pressure advantages. The small cage makes these counters even more dangerous because there's less reaction time once Padilla commits. This constant finish threat limits how aggressively Padilla can press without caution.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use the double-jab as the entry mechanism to close distance and initiate clinch contact. Once on the fence, work pummeling exchanges to establish underhooks, then cycle between short elbows (to cut and damage) and single-leg attempts (to tax hips and bank control time even without completions).
The goal isn't necessarily to complete takedowns—it's to make Bonfim defend wrestling for 30-60 second blocks that drain his energy, reduce his striking output, and accumulate control time that influences judges. Mix in body work and short strikes in the clinch to justify the time spent there and create cumulative fatigue.
In close rounds where striking stats are competitive, late-round takedown attempts or fence control sequences can shift judge perception dramatically. Even if Bonfim stuffs the takedown, the visual of Padilla driving forward and Bonfim defending backward often scores favorably on optics.
Target the final 90 seconds of each round for maximum pressure and clinch entries—this is when fatigue amplifies and when judges' recent memories are formed. If Padilla can end each round with cage control or a takedown attempt, it influences how they score close exchanges earlier in the round. This tactical timing can steal rounds where the striking stats narrowly favor Bonfim.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Small-Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot Apex cage fundamentally alters the strategic calculus of this matchup. In the standard 30-foot octagon, Bonfim would have more escape routes and lateral movement options to keep the fight in open space where his striking efficiency dominates. Here, the reduced diameter means the fence is perpetually 3-4 steps away rather than 6-7, cutting Bonfim's safe zones by nearly half.
This compression favors Padilla's pressure game in theory—less distance to cover when cutting the cage, fewer angles for Bonfim to circle out, and quicker transitions from center-octagon to fence wrestling. However, it's a double-edged sword: the same compact space makes Bonfim's counter-striking windows more explosive and dangerous. When Padilla commits to forward pressure in tight quarters, he's stepping into prime intercepting-knee range with limited reaction time.
The fight's flow will be determined by who controls the initial 2-3 exchanges after each reset. If Bonfim can land clean 2-3 piece combinations and immediately circle off, he maintains mid-octagon geography and his efficiency edge compounds. If Padilla can corral him to the fence and initiate clinch cycles, those 30-60 second control blocks bank rounds even without completed takedowns. In essence, this becomes a battle of resets versus continuity—Bonfim needs frequent restarts to the center, Padilla needs extended sequences against the cage.
🎯Technical Split & Statistical Edges
The statistical breakdown reveals a clear striking advantage for Bonfim across all four core metrics: he lands 5.73 significant strikes per minute to Padilla's 4.13 (+38% volume), hits at 55% accuracy versus 51% (+8% precision), and most critically defends at 70% versus 57% (+23% defensive gap). This last number is particularly decisive—it means Bonfim avoids nearly 1 in 4 more strikes than Padilla, while landing at higher volume and accuracy simultaneously.
Conversely, Padilla owns the grappling equity with 1.56 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Bonfim's 0.96, and sports a perfect 100% takedown defense in UFC competition versus Bonfim's 76%. This creates the classic striker-grappler dynamic, but with a twist: Padilla's path requires him to successfully initiate and maintain clinch/fence sequences, while Bonfim's path simply requires keeping the fight standing—a lower-friction proposition that favors the status quo.
The crux of the matchup is Bonfim's first-layer takedown defense (sprawl-underhook-turn) versus Padilla's fence persistence and chain wrestling. If Bonfim can consistently deny the initial clinch entry or immediately separate, his striking edge accumulates over 15 minutes. If Padilla can survive the first exchange, secure fence position, and cycle through multiple takedown attempts or clinch resets, he can tax Bonfim's hips and bank control time that sways judges. This isn't about one decisive moment—it's about who wins the aggregate of 30-40 mini-battles throughout three rounds.
⏱️Round-by-Round Dynamics & Leverage Points
Round 1 strongly favors Bonfim's clean striking game—both fighters enter fresh, Bonfim's defensive responsibility is at its peak, and Padilla hasn't yet accumulated the clinch tax that makes his pressure more effective. Early minutes are prime territory for Bonfim to establish distance control, land clean counters, and build a lead on the scorecards. His 40% of wins come in Round 1, often via explosive finishes like the McKinney flying knee, so the threat of an early KO is real.
Round 2 becomes more tactical—Padilla's pressure begins to accumulate if he's banking fence time, while Bonfim needs to maintain the same energy and defensive discipline that won Round 1. This is where subtle shifts in geography matter: if Padilla can increase his clinch percentage from 20-25% to 35-40% of total fight time, he starts stealing exchanges even if the striking stats favor Bonfim. The round becomes a barometer: if Bonfim is still crisp and mobile, his path is clear; if Padilla has succeeded in making it grindy and ugly, momentum shifts.
Round 3 is the true championship test for a 3-round fight. Bonfim's cardio score of 7.8/10 is slightly lower than Padilla's 8.2/10, and his submission losses (Saint Denis's RNC, Sadykhov's doctor stoppage due to fatigue-related eye poke) suggest vulnerability when extended. Padilla's 50% of wins come in Round 1, but his ability to finish in Rounds 2-3 via grinding TKOs or opportunistic submissions gives him late-fight equity. The key question: can Bonfim maintain his 70% strike defense and first-layer TDD when tired, or does Padilla's relentless pressure finally break through? Late-round takedowns that don't result in damage can still steal close rounds on optics—Padilla's blueprint when he can't finish.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 38% | Market: N/A
GOOD VALUE
Model: 36% | Market: —
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 44% | Market: —
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ismael Bonfim
Volume, accuracy and defense carry optics
Straight counters punish level changes
Low sub volume overall
💥Outcome Distribution - Chris Padilla
Fence control and optics via clinch cycles
Attritional elbows and accumulative damage
Opportunistic subs from scrambles
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Chris Padilla
- • R2–R3: Best clinch and fence efficiency window
- • Round ends: Late takedowns to steal optics
- • Damage: Short elbows in clinch can cut and change optics
🎯Progressive Dominance - Ismael Bonfim
- • Center maintenance: Keep exchanges mid-octagon
- • Intercepts: Punish level changes with knees/uppers
- • Footwork: Circle off fence on every clinch entry
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong striking edge tempered by clinch pressure variables
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior volume and accuracy metrics
- • Significant strike defense gap (+13 pts)
- • Effective first-layer TDD
- • Clean intercepts vs linear pressure
- • Model favors Bonfim 62–38
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Small-cage fence leverage for Padilla
- • Late-round round-stealing takedowns
- • Cut susceptibility in clinch
- • Grappling variance in scrambles
🏁Executive Summary
Bonfim projects as the more efficient striker with meaningful defensive separation. Padilla's live paths center on fence pressure, control minutes, and attritional work. Geography and round-end management decide margins.
Prediction: Bonfim by Decision (36%) most frequent; Padilla live via decision (22%) if clinch cycles dominate.