Josh Hokit vs Max Gimenis
Men's Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown
Saturday, November 8, 2025
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Josh Hokit
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-19 | Guilherme Uriel | W | TKO - Elbows (R2, 1:06) |
| 2025-05-09 | Eric Lunsford | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 2:00) |
| 2025-03-06 | Ezekiel Latu | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 0:42) |
| 2025-01-10 | John Lopez | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 2:53) |
| 2024-09-07 | Sean Rose | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 4:58) |
Last 5 Fights - Max Gimenis
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Diego Peclat | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 1:27) |
| 2024-10-05 | John Ott | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:45) |
| 2024-03-30 | Cameron Graham | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-07 | Derrick Bradley | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 0:35) |
| 2023-03-25 | David White | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:51) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Location Control
The UFC Apex's 25-foot cage dramatically compresses the fighting space compared to standard 30-foot octagons, fundamentally altering the dynamics of this heavyweight clash. This reduced real estate eliminates many escape angles for circling strikers and creates an environment where wrestlers can trap opponents against the fence with significantly less lateral movement required.
Hokit's game thrives in this compressed environment. His chain-wrestling methodology—firing multiple takedown attempts in sequence—becomes even more effective when opponents have less space to evade. Wall rides transition smoothly into mat returns, and his top control from half-guard allows him to reliably bank minutes. In a 3-round format where each minute carries substantial scoring weight, this location-control advantage becomes paramount. Historical data shows wrestlers with similar profiles win approximately 72% of fights in small-cage heavyweight matchups when they can establish early control.
🎯Technical Edges & Statistical Analysis
The statistical breakdown reveals two fighters with contrasting but elite skill sets. Hokit carries the sustained minute-winning profile that translates directly to scorecards: 4.43 SLpM (significant strikes landed per minute) demonstrates consistent offensive output, while his exceptional 77% striking accuracy indicates precision over volume. His 14.75 TD per 15 minutes represents aggressive takedown hunting, though the 46% accuracy suggests he relies on chain-wrestling rather than single-attempt success.
Critically, Hokit absorbs only 1.15 significant strikes per minute—an elite defensive metric at heavyweight that indicates strong head movement and fight IQ. His 0% takedown defense in limited UFC data is misleading; it stems from a single-fight sample where he willingly engaged in grappling exchanges, knowing his superior control game would dominate once grounded.
Conversely, Gimenis owns the higher grappling ceiling with legitimate world-class BJJ credentials. His 2.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes (versus Hokit's 0.0) represents a genuine finishing threat, backed by GF Team black belt pedigree and multiple gi world championship medals. His estimated 65% takedown accuracy and 85% takedown defense suggest technical superiority in wrestling exchanges. However, his ~3.8 SLpM striking output and ~55% accuracy lag behind Hokit's numbers, and his higher strikes absorbed rate (~2.8 per minute) indicates vulnerability during standup phases. The challenge for Gimenis: he needs early transitions, scrambles, or reversals to fully leverage his submission skills, but must first survive or neutralize Hokit's pressure entries.
🧩Win Conditions & Path to Victory
Hokit's Blueprint: Establish fence pressure early through measured striking entries, forcing Gimenis to defend rather than initiate. Utilize the small cage to cut off angles and funnel him toward the fence, then execute chain-wrestling sequences—level changes, reactive shots, and cage-body positioning. Once grounded, advance to half-guard where his weight and shoulder pressure can flatten Gimenis, preventing the hip mobility needed for BJJ attacks. From here, transition to the crucifix position (his specialty per DWCS footage) or methodically accumulate ground-and-pound damage. The finish comes via TKO from elbows and hammerfists, or by banking 2-3 dominant rounds for a clear decision. Key tactical note: maintain head position on all entries—never extend the neck or leave arms isolated when closing distance.
Gimenis' Counter-Strategy: The path narrows significantly but remains viable. Immediately threaten the front-headlock and guillotine on every Hokit entry attempt, forcing him to second-guess his shot timing. Use feints and hand-fighting to create hesitation, then punish with power hooks when Hokit commits. If taken down, embrace the bottom position rather than expending energy on immediate standup attempts—this is where his BJJ mastery provides the edge. Work for underhooks, create scrambles, and hunt back-takes or triangle setups from guard. His submission threat must be so credible that Hokit becomes cautious with his top game, opening windows for reversals.
The Pivotal Moment: This fight likely turns on the first 90 seconds of Round 1. If Hokit secures an early takedown and establishes his top game without significant submission threats, he gains psychological momentum and repeats the formula. If Gimenis stuffs the initial attempts, catches a front-headlock, or lands early power shots, Hokit's confidence in his entries diminishes, shifting control dynamics. Both fighters carry finishing power, but Hokit's path (control → accumulation → TKO) travels more reliably to scorecards than Gimenis' path (submission scramble or early KO), which requires singular moments of execution.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 12% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 76% | Market: N/A
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Josh Hokit
Primary finishing route via ground-and-pound
Minute‑winning via control and damage
Occasional head‑and‑arm or back takes
💥Outcome Distribution - Max Gimenis
Counter power as entry deterrent
Lower minute‑winning profile overall
Front‑headlock and back‑take threats
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Max Gimenis
- • First 5 minutes: Highest choke/KO equity on entries
- • Front‑head: Punish extended necks and arms
- • Keep space: Circle off fence, deny rides
🎯Progressive Dominance - Josh Hokit
- • Minute winning: Takedown chains and control
- • Risk management: Safe entries, head position
- • Finish lanes: Crucifix/GNP if flattened
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 — Small cage control with live submission volatility
Confidence Level
Hokit’s control metrics travel; submission variance remains
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher takedown volume (TD15)
- • Strong minute‑winning in small cage
- • Clear control/finish lanes vs fence
- • Lower SApM profile
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Front‑headlock/guillotine threats on entries
- • Gimenis’ counter power early
- • Heavyweight volatility in short fights