Calvin Kattar vs Steve Garcia
Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Finisher Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Calvin Kattar
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-16 | Youssef Zalal | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Aljamain Sterling | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-10-29 | Arnold Allen | L | TKO - Knee Injury (R2, 0:08) |
| 2022-06-18 | Josh Emmett | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-01-15 | Giga Chikadze | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Steve Garcia
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-07 | Kyle Nelson | W | TKO - Elbows and Punches (R1, 3:59) |
| 2024-07-20 | Seung Woo Choi | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:36) |
| 2023-12-09 | Melquizael Costa | W | KO - Elbows (R2, 1:01) |
| 2023-04-08 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | W | TKO - Body Kick and Punches (R2, 0:36) |
| 2022-10-29 | Chase Hooper | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:32) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (35 vs 65) and Grappling Composite (24 vs 50). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Calvin Kattar Key Advantages
Championship-level experience with proven ability to compete at the highest level
14:46 average fight duration vs 5:08 - massive cardio and pace advantage
Proven ability to survive adversity and come back in later rounds
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Garcia's first-round knockout power could catch Kattar early before his conditioning becomes a factor
4-fight losing streak suggests declining performance and confidence issues
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use volume striking and pressure to drag Garcia into deep waters where cardio becomes crucial
Weather early storm with high guard and movement, then increase output in later rounds
🚀 Steve Garcia Key Advantages
Elite knockout power with 16 career KO/TKO victories - one of the most dangerous finishers
57% striking accuracy vs 39% - superior precision and shot selection
Hot streak with 4 first-round finishes shows peak form and confidence
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If unable to finish early, Kattar's superior conditioning could take over in rounds 4-5
Kattar's high-volume striking and pressure could disrupt Garcia's timing and rhythm
📋 Likely Gameplan
Come out firing in round 1, use explosive combinations to find the knockout shot early
Use superior accuracy to counter Kattar's volume with precise, powerful shots
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
💥Power & Precision Advantage
Garcia enters this fight as the clear favorite based on his current form and finishing ability. With a 94.1% finish rate and 16 career KO/TKO victories, Garcia represents one of the most dangerous finishers in the featherweight division. His recent 5-fight win streak, highlighted by 4 first-round finishes, demonstrates his ability to end fights quickly and decisively. Garcia's 57% striking accuracy compared to Kattar's 39% suggests superior shot selection and precision, critical factors in explosive exchanges.
🎯Experience vs. Form
While Kattar brings significant UFC experience with 14 fights compared to Garcia's 8, his recent form raises concerns. The 5-fight losing streak, while against high-level competition, indicates potential decline or confidence issues. However, Kattar's championship-level experience and proven ability to compete in high-stakes environments cannot be overlooked. His average fight duration of 14:46 versus Garcia's 5:08 tells the story of two different fighting styles: Kattar's grinder approach versus Garcia's explosive finishing ability.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight's outcome will likely be determined in the opening round. Garcia's pattern of 9 first-round finishes out of his 16 total KO/TKOs suggests he either wins early or faces increasing difficulty as fights progress. Kattar's superior cardio score (57 vs 34) and proven ability to extend fights (14:46 average duration) create a clear path to victory if he can survive the early storm. Garcia's 3" reach advantage (75" vs 72") and higher striking output (5.0 vs 4.6 SLpM) give him the tools to control distance and timing.
🏁Final Prediction: Garcia by Early KO/TKO
The statistical analysis and current form trends strongly favor Garcia in this matchup. His 5-fight win streak represents peak performance, while Kattar's 5-fight losing streak suggests a fighter potentially past his prime. Garcia's superior striking accuracy (46% advantage), current momentum, and proven ability to finish fights early align perfectly against an opponent coming off consecutive losses. While Kattar's experience and cardio provide a path to victory in later rounds, Garcia's explosive power and current confidence level make an early finish the most probable outcome. The 65-35 prediction reflects Garcia's significant advantages in current form, finishing ability, and striking precision, balanced against Kattar's proven durability and championship experience.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 52% | Market: ~35.7%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 65% | Market: 58.3%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 67.7% | Market: 58.3%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Garcia's current form - 5-fight win streak with 4 first-round finishes not properly priced
- • Overvalues Kattar's experience - Market ignores significant decline over 5-fight losing streak
- • Misprices finish probability - Garcia's 94.1% finish rate vs Kattar's durability creates value in KO props
- • Form vs reputation gap - Market still pricing Kattar's past reputation rather than current reality
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Kattar
57% of his wins | Cardio advantage late
35% of his wins | Counter-strike opportunity
Low probability but possible scramble
🔥Outcome Distribution - Garcia
80% of his wins | Primary weapon
20% of his wins | Rare but possible
No historical submission wins
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
🔥Explosive Window - Garcia
- • First 8 minutes: Prime knockout opportunity window
- • Round 1 speciality: 9 of 16 career KO/TKOs in first round
- • Peak accuracy: 57% striking precision when fresh
- • Momentum factor: Current 5-fight finish streak confidence
⏰Late Round Rally - Kattar
- • Round 3: Superior cardio advantage becomes decisive
- • Volume accumulation: 4.6 SLpM over extended time
- • Experience factor: Championship-level 15+ minute fights
- • Survival mode: Proven chin and recovery ability
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence in Garcia's form advantage
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite finishing ability (94.1% finish rate)
- • Superior striking accuracy (+46%)
- • Peak momentum (5-fight win streak)
- • First-round specialization
- • Kattar's recent decline (0-5 streak)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Kattar's championship-level experience
- • Superior cardio for late rounds
- • Proven durability and chin
- • Garcia's limited 3-round experience
- • Pressure to perform on streak
🏁Executive Summary
This featherweight co-main event presents a compelling stylistic clash between Garcia's explosive finishing ability and Kattar's veteran durability. Garcia's current form represents a fighter at his absolute peak - riding a 5-fight win streak with 4 first-round finishes, demonstrating elite-level precision (57% vs 39% striking accuracy) and devastating power. His 94.1% finish rate suggests this fight rarely reaches the scorecards when Garcia executes his game plan.
The market appears to undervalue Garcia's current dominance while overestimating Kattar's chances based on past reputation. Kattar's 5-fight losing streak, while against quality opposition, indicates a clear decline from his championship-contender days. However, his superior cardio (57 vs 34 score) and proven chin create legitimate paths to victory if he can survive Garcia's early assault and drag the fight into deep waters.
Prediction: Garcia's explosive power, superior accuracy, and peak form momentum should overwhelm Kattar's declining ability to compete at elite levels. The 65-35 prediction reflects Garcia's massive current form advantage while acknowledging Kattar's experience and durability. Expect Garcia to implement early aggressive striking, targeting a first or second-round finish before Kattar's cardio advantages can manifest in the later stages of this 3-round contest.