Calvin Kattar vs Steve Garcia
Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Calvin Kattar
"The Boston Finisher"
23-9-0
🥊 Veteran Contender
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Steve Garcia
"Mean Machine"
17-5-0
🚀 Rising Finisher
Finisher Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Calvin Kattar
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-16 | Youssef Zalal | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Aljamain Sterling | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-10-29 | Arnold Allen | L | TKO - Knee Injury (R2, 0:08) |
| 2022-06-18 | Josh Emmett | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-01-15 | Giga Chikadze | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Steve Garcia
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-07 | Kyle Nelson | W | TKO - Elbows and Punches (R1, 3:59) |
| 2024-07-20 | Seung Woo Choi | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:36) |
| 2023-12-09 | Melquizael Costa | W | KO - Elbows (R2, 1:01) |
| 2023-04-08 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | W | TKO - Body Kick and Punches (R2, 0:36) |
| 2022-10-29 | Chase Hooper | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:32) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (35 vs 65) and Grappling Composite (24 vs 50). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Calvin Kattar Key Advantages
Championship-level experience with proven ability to compete at the highest level
14:46 average fight duration vs 5:08 - massive cardio and pace advantage
Proven ability to survive adversity and come back in later rounds
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Garcia's first-round knockout power could catch Kattar early before his conditioning becomes a factor
4-fight losing streak suggests declining performance and confidence issues
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use volume striking and pressure to drag Garcia into deep waters where cardio becomes crucial
Weather early storm with high guard and movement, then increase output in later rounds
🚀 Steve Garcia Key Advantages
Elite knockout power with 16 career KO/TKO victories - one of the most dangerous finishers
57% striking accuracy vs 39% - superior precision and shot selection
Hot streak with 4 first-round finishes shows peak form and confidence
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If unable to finish early, Kattar's superior conditioning could take over in rounds 4-5
Kattar's high-volume striking and pressure could disrupt Garcia's timing and rhythm
📋 Likely Gameplan
Come out firing in round 1, use explosive combinations to find the knockout shot early
Use superior accuracy to counter Kattar's volume with precise, powerful shots
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
💥Power & Precision Advantage
Garcia enters this fight as the clear favorite based on his current form and finishing ability. With a 94.1% finish rate and 16 career KO/TKO victories, Garcia represents one of the most dangerous finishers in the featherweight division. His recent 5-fight win streak, highlighted by 4 first-round finishes, demonstrates his ability to end fights quickly and decisively. Garcia's 57% striking accuracy compared to Kattar's 39% suggests superior shot selection and precision, critical factors in explosive exchanges.
🎯Experience vs. Form
While Kattar brings significant UFC experience with 14 fights compared to Garcia's 8, his recent form raises concerns. The 5-fight losing streak, while against high-level competition, indicates potential decline or confidence issues. However, Kattar's championship-level experience and proven ability to compete in high-stakes environments cannot be overlooked. His average fight duration of 14:46 versus Garcia's 5:08 tells the story of two different fighting styles: Kattar's grinder approach versus Garcia's explosive finishing ability.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight's outcome will likely be determined in the opening round. Garcia's pattern of 9 first-round finishes out of his 16 total KO/TKOs suggests he either wins early or faces increasing difficulty as fights progress. Kattar's superior cardio score (57 vs 34) and proven ability to extend fights (14:46 average duration) create a clear path to victory if he can survive the early storm. Garcia's 3" reach advantage (75" vs 72") and higher striking output (5.0 vs 4.6 SLpM) give him the tools to control distance and timing.
🏁Final Prediction: Garcia by Early KO/TKO
The statistical analysis and current form trends strongly favor Garcia in this matchup. His 5-fight win streak represents peak performance, while Kattar's 5-fight losing streak suggests a fighter potentially past his prime. Garcia's superior striking accuracy (46% advantage), current momentum, and proven ability to finish fights early align perfectly against an opponent coming off consecutive losses. While Kattar's experience and cardio provide a path to victory in later rounds, Garcia's explosive power and current confidence level make an early finish the most probable outcome. The 65-35 prediction reflects Garcia's significant advantages in current form, finishing ability, and striking precision, balanced against Kattar's proven durability and championship experience.
📊 Model vs Market Odds Analysis
Comparing our statistical model predictions with sportsbook odds
🏪Market Odds (Sportsbooks)
Market Assessment
The market shows Garcia as a moderate favorite at -140, suggesting bookmakers see this as a competitive but still Garcia-favored matchup. The +120 line on Kattar indicates the market views him as having a legitimate chance despite his recent struggles.
🤖Our Model Prediction
Model Assessment
Our statistical model suggests Garcia should be an even stronger favorite than the market prices, predicting 65% win probability vs market-implied 58.3%. The model identifies greater value disparity based on technical metrics, recent form analysis, and finishing ability comparisons.
⚖️Market vs Model Analysis
Our model sees Garcia as stronger favorite (65% vs 58.3%) and Kattar as weaker (35% vs 45.5%)
Model suggests Garcia (-140) offers value as market underestimates his win probability
Model suggests Kattar (+120) is overvalued by market given his recent form decline
💡Key Insights
Model-Market Discrepancy: Our statistical model identifies a significant pricing inefficiency, with Garcia undervalued at -140 (58.3% implied) versus our 65% win probability prediction.
Garcia Value Opportunity: The model suggests Garcia offers positive expected value at current odds, as the market appears to underestimate his dominance in key metrics.
Kattar Overvaluation: At +120 (45.5% implied), Kattar appears overpriced given our 35% win probability assessment. His recent 5-fight losing streak suggests greater decline than the market recognizes.
Key Factors: Our model heavily weights Garcia's superior finishing ability (94.1% vs 57.0%), striking accuracy advantage (57% vs 39%), and current momentum (5-0 vs 0-5 streak), creating a larger gap than market odds suggest.