Marlon Vera vs David Martinez
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Almabayev
Saturday, February 28, 2026 • Mexico City, Arena CDMX, Mexico
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Marlon Vera
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
David Martinez
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Marlon Vera
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Aiemann Zahabi | L | DEC - Split (3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-03 | Deiveson Figueiredo | L | DEC - Unanimous (5, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-09 | Sean O'Malley | L | DEC - Unanimous (5, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-19 | Pedro Munhoz | W | DEC - Unanimous (3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-25 | Cory Sandhagen | L | DEC - Split (5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - David Martinez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Rob Font | W | DEC - Unanimous (3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-29 | Saimon Oliveira | W | TKO - Punches (1, 4:38) |
| 2024-10-01 | Xavier Franklin | W | DEC - Unanimous (3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-28 | Jose Zarauz | W | TKO (4, 4:17) |
| 2022-10-07 | Axel Osuna | W | TKO - Punches (4, 4:14) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Marlon Vera Key Advantages
Vera's 70.5" reach vs Martinez's 67.5" provides a meaningful weapon if he can maintain the fight at distance. Combined with his 40.5" leg reach advantage (vs 37.5"), Vera can deploy low kicks to disrupt Martinez's rhythm and maintain distance. In a 30ft cage, this reach differential becomes more pronounced as Vera can use the space to reset and capitalize on Martinez's shorter frame. If Vera can turn this into a timing and counter-striking battle rather than a volume exchange, his length becomes a decisive factor.
With 0.83 submission attempts per 15 minutes and 43% of career wins via submission, Vera represents the only fighter in this matchup with a legitimate "win from nowhere" path. Martinez has zero submission attempts in his career and no grappling offense. If Vera can create scrambles through clinch work or force Martinez into defensive grappling positions, the submission threat becomes real. Vera's experience against elite competition gives him the technical edge in transitions, and Martinez's lack of submission defense data makes this an unknown but potentially exploitable weakness.
Vera has faced championship-level competition (O'Malley, Figueiredo, Sandhagen) while Martinez has only 2 UFC bouts. This experience gap manifests in adversity management, cage generalship, and late-fight adjustments. Vera's 23 career wins demonstrate his ability to win rounds with timing rather than volume, and his Round 3+ victories show he can capitalize when opponents fade. In Mexico City's altitude, experience managing cardio and pacing becomes critical, and Vera's 25 UFC fights vs Martinez's 2 represents a massive gap in high-stakes environment management.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Vera stands and trades in the pocket, the statistics heavily favor Martinez. Absorbing 5.37 strikes per minute vs Martinez's 2.70 while defending only 50% vs Martinez's 67% creates a damage differential that compounds quickly. Martinez's 5.40 SLpM output vs Vera's 4.27 means Vera will be out-struck in volume battles. In a 3-round fight, losing early rounds this way leaves no time for late-fight adjustments. Vera needs to make this fight "ugly" with clinch work, low kicks, and timing counters—not a clean striking exchange.
If Vera waits until Round 3 to implement his grappling and clinch strategy, he may be down 2-0 on the scorecards. Martinez's fast starts (4 Round 1 finishes, strong early output) mean Vera could be in a hole before his late-fight experience matters. The 3-round format severely limits Vera's ability to "steal" rounds late, and Martinez's home crowd advantage in Mexico City will influence judges if the fight is competitive. Vera must establish his gameplan early or risk being unable to overcome an early deficit.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Vera should prioritize low kicks to Martinez's lead leg early to disrupt rhythm and slow his movement. With a 3" leg reach advantage, these kicks land from safe distance without committing to exchanges. The goal isn't volume but strategic placement—2-3 good kicks per round to accumulate damage and force Martinez to adjust his stance. This creates openings for timing counters when Martinez commits to combinations. Vera's experience reading opponents allows him to identify patterns and capitalize with single, well-timed strikes rather than trying to out-volume Martinez.
Vera shouldn't attempt 10 clinch entries—he needs 2-3 high-quality attempts with clear intention for back takes or trips. His submission threat (0.83/15min) makes scrambles dangerous for Martinez, who has zero grappling offense. When Martinez commits to combinations or pushes forward, Vera should time clinch entries to disrupt rhythm and create transition opportunities. The key is making the fight messy and unpredictable, preventing Martinez from settling into his clean striking game. Even failed clinch attempts force Martinez to expend energy defending and reset, breaking his offensive flow.
🚀 David Martinez Key Advantages
Martinez's 67% striking defense vs Vera's 50% creates a structural edge in clean striking exchanges. Combined with absorbing only 2.70 strikes per minute vs Vera's 5.37, Martinez enters this fight with a massive defensive advantage. This differential means Martinez can output more (5.40 SLpM vs 4.27) while taking less damage—a recipe for winning rounds consistently. The gap in absorption rate (2.67 strikes/min difference) compounds over 15 minutes, creating visible damage disparities that influence judges even in close rounds.
Martinez's 5.40 strikes landed per minute vs Vera's 4.27 represents consistent output superiority that wins rounds. Combined with 52% accuracy vs Vera's 49%, Martinez lands more strikes at a higher rate. This volume-accuracy combination is particularly effective in 3-round fights where judges value consistent activity. Martinez's ability to maintain this pace while defending better creates a scoring framework where he wins rounds even without dramatic moments—clean volume accumulation that compounds across 15 minutes.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Martinez has zero submission attempts in his career and limited grappling experience at the UFC level. If Vera forces clinch exchanges or creates scrambles, Martinez's lack of defensive grappling could be exposed. Vera's 0.83 submission attempts per 15 minutes and 43% career sub rate make him dangerous in transitions. Martinez's 100% takedown defense (on limited sample) suggests he can stuff initial shots, but defending submissions in scrambles requires different skills. One mistake—turning the wrong way, giving up his back, or accepting bottom position—could end the fight instantly via Vera's experience advantage.
If Martinez's fast start (4 R1 finishes) doesn't translate to early damage, the altitude in Mexico City becomes a factor. His 77% finish rate suggests he's most dangerous early; if the fight reaches Round 3 competitive, Vera's 25 UFC fights vs Martinez's 2 represents a massive experience gap. Vera has won in R3+ and knows how to manage adversity. Martinez's limited UFC sample means we don't know how he responds when hurt, tired, or behind on cards. This inexperience could manifest as panic wrestling (giving Vera scrambles), slowed output, or poor decision-making in crucial moments.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Round 1 priority: establish jab/straight down the middle and exit with angles—never stay static after combinations. Martinez's 67% striking defense requires clean entries and smart exits; he can't let Vera time counters or clinch entries. Use the 30ft cage to create reset opportunities after combinations. His 52% accuracy means he's landing cleanly, so the focus is volume accumulation without absorbing return fire. Lateral movement after combinations prevents Vera from establishing rhythm or setting low kicks. This approach leverages Martinez's striking superiority while minimizing Vera's counter-striking and clinch opportunities.
If Round 2 is competitive (1-1 or ahead 2-0), Martinez should increase body shots and combinations to break Vera's will and cardio. The altitude in Mexico City favors fighters who can maintain pace, and Martinez's youth (26 vs 32) gives him an edge. Body work accumulates damage that Vera's recent losses suggest he struggles with. If ahead 2-0, intelligent coasting with movement and volume maintenance secures decision. If 1-1, aggressive R3 push with combination work to the head/body forces Vera to either engage (where Martinez wins exchanges) or back up (where he loses rounds). No desperate grappling—stay in the striking game where all advantages lie.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics & Physical Context
The 30-foot octagon in Mexico City's Arena CDMX creates unique dynamics that favor Martinez's game. The large cage allows him to maintain distance, reset after combinations, and avoid prolonged clinch engagements where Vera's experience becomes dangerous. Mexico City's altitude (7,350 ft) affects cardio management, favoring the younger Martinez (26) over Vera (32). Vera's 3" reach advantage (70.5" vs 67.5") provides tools for distance management via low kicks, but only if he can prevent Martinez from establishing clean striking exchanges. The home crowd energy for the Mexican fighter Martinez creates psychological pressure and potential judge influence in close rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical differential in striking defense creates the structural advantage for Martinez. His 67% striking defense vs Vera's 50% means he's avoiding 17% more strikes—a massive gap that compounds over 15 minutes. Combined with absorption rates (Martinez 2.70 SApM vs Vera 5.37), Martinez can output more volume (5.40 vs 4.27 SLpM) while taking significantly less damage. This creates a scoring framework where Martinez wins rounds through clean volume without accumulating visible damage. Vera's only path involves disrupting this dynamic through clinch work (leveraging his 0.83 Sub/15min threat) or late-fight experience capitalizing on Martinez's limited UFC sample (2 fights vs 25). The 3-round format heavily favors Martinez—there's no time for Vera to implement late adjustments if down 0-2 after two rounds of clean striking from Martinez.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas determine the outcome: striking volume vs defensive efficiency, clinch/scramble creation vs avoidance, and early momentum vs late experience. Martinez wins if he maintains clean striking exchanges—his defensive metrics (67% StrDef, 2.70 SApM) vs Vera's vulnerabilities (50% StrDef, 5.37 SApM) create consistent round-winning volume. Vera needs to create "moments"—2-3 good clinch entries per round that force scrambles, threaten submissions, or break Martinez's rhythm. The age/experience differential (Vera 32, 25 UFC fights vs Martinez 26, 2 UFC fights) becomes decisive if the fight reaches competitive Round 3 scenarios. Martinez's momentum (5 win streak) vs Vera's slide (3 loss streak) creates psychological dynamics where Martinez has confidence and belief while Vera searches for answers.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is David Martinez by Decision (40% probability), achieved through consistent striking volume, superior defensive metrics, and damage economy control over 3 rounds. Martinez's KO/TKO path (28%) becomes viable through accumulated body work and combinations that break Vera's will, particularly likely in Rounds 1-2 when Martinez is fresh and Vera is trying to find rhythm. Vera's upset lane centers on Submission (6%) via scrambles and clinch work that expose Martinez's limited grappling experience. Vera's Decision path (16%) requires making the fight messy with clinch entries and low kicks to disrupt Martinez's clean striking—a difficult strategy that requires early implementation and perfect execution across all three rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 40% | Fair Odds: +150
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% | Fair Odds: +257
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 56% | Fair Odds: -127
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues defensive gaps – Martinez's 67% StrDef vs Vera's 50% is structural.
- • Overweights Vera's experience – Recent 3-loss streak suggests decline, not edge.
- • 3-round format bias – No time for Vera's late adjustments; Martinez's early pace wins rounds.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Marlon Vera
Requires perfect execution of clinch/low kick strategy
Timing counter or late-fight accumulation
Scrambles and clinch transitions create openings
💥Outcome Distribution - David Martinez
Primary path via clean volume and defensive efficiency
Body work accumulation and fast start finishes
No submission offense in career history
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Early Momentum - David Martinez
- • First 10 minutes: Highest volume output and clean striking equity.
- • Distance control: Jab/straight with angle exits to avoid clinch.
- • Fast start: Build 2-0 lead before Vera adjusts strategy.
🎯Experience Window - Marlon Vera
- • Disruptive tactics: Low kicks and selective clinch to break rhythm.
- • Late adjustments: Round 3 experience edge if competitive.
- • Scramble creation: Force grappling exchanges where submission threat exists.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via defensive metrics and striking superiority
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant defensive edge (67% vs 50% StrDef)
- • Volume control and output superiority (5.40 vs 4.27 SLpM)
- • Massive absorption differential (2.70 vs 5.37 SApM)
- • Momentum + youth + home advantage factors
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Limited UFC experience (2 fights vs 25)
- • Vera's submission threat in scrambles
- • Unknown response to adversity or late pressure
- • 3-round format reduces Vera's adjustment window
🏁Executive Summary
David Martinez's defensive striking superiority should steadily control the striking exchanges in the 30-foot octagon and accumulate clean volume, while Marlon Vera's best equity centers on selective clinch entries and scrambles before Martinez builds an insurmountable lead. The statistical differentials heavily favor Martinez: his 67% StrDef vs Vera's 50% creates a 17% defensive advantage, while his 2.70 SApM vs Vera's 5.37 represents superior damage economy that compounds over 3 rounds. Martinez's 5.40 SLpM output vs Vera's 4.27 demonstrates volume control, and his 52% accuracy vs 49% means cleaner strikes landing. Martinez's youth (26) and momentum (5-fight win streak) contrast sharply with Vera's age (32) and decline (3-loss streak). The Mexican fighter's ability to maintain high output while absorbing minimal damage creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially with home crowd support influencing close rounds.
Prediction: Martinez by Decision most likely (40% probability) through consistent striking volume and defensive superiority; Martinez by KO/TKO (28%) via body work accumulation in early rounds. Vera's upset lanes are Submission (6%) via scrambles exposing Martinez's limited grappling, or Decision (16%) requiring perfect execution of disruptive clinch/low kick strategy. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Martinez can maintain clean striking exchanges or if Vera successfully forces messy grappling scenarios where his experience and submission threat become decisive factors.