Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Almabayev
Saturday, February 28, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Edgar Chairez
12-6-0
Edgar Chairez
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Felipe Bunes
14-8-0
Felipe Bunes
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Edgar Chairez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | CJ Vergara | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 2:30) |
| 2024-09-14 | Joshua Van | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-24 | Daniel Lacerda | W | Submission - Triangle Choke (R1, 2:17) |
| 2023-07-08 | Tatsuro Taira | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-24 | Gianni Vazquez | W | Submission - Armbar (R4, 2:04) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Felipe Bunes
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | Rafael Estevam | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-11 | Jose Johnson | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 2:04) |
| 2024-01-13 | Joshua Van | L | TKO - Ground Pound (R2, 4:31) |
| 2023-01-06 | Yuma Horiuchi | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 3:45) |
| 2022-07-08 | Wascar Cruz | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Edgar Chairez Key Advantages
Chairez's submission-first approach creates dangerous opportunities in scrambles and transitions. His 100% finish rate in wins (all 12 victories are finishes) demonstrates exceptional finishing instinct. While Chairez doesn't have takedown volume (0.0 TD/15), his ability to capitalize on grappling chaos—front headlocks, back takes, triangles, and armbars—makes him extremely dangerous when fights hit the mat. His reach (68" vs Bunes's 69") is similar, helping in clinch control and submission setups. The Mexican's opportunistic style means he doesn't need to control minutes—he needs one mistake to end the fight.
The 2.78 strikes absorbed per minute differential (5.08 vs 7.86) shows Chairez takes significantly less damage than Bunes. While Bunes's 4.49 SLpM output and 53% accuracy are impressive, his 7.86 SApM is a major liability—he gets hit at an extreme rate. Chairez's 43% striking defense and lower absorption rate (5.08 SApM) mean he's more durable in exchanges. This damage economy is crucial because Chairez doesn't need to win minutes—he needs to survive long enough to find a submission opportunity. The Mexican's ability to minimize damage intake while hunting for finishes creates a dangerous profile against Bunes's high-risk, high-volume approach.
Chairez's 8:56 average fight duration with 9 of 12 wins occurring in Round 1 demonstrates his early-finish threat. His submission-first approach means fights end quickly when he wins—he doesn't need to pace for 15 minutes. The Mexican's ability to capitalize on early scrambles and transitions shows opportunistic finishing instinct. However, his 33% takedown defense suggests he can spend time underneath if Bunes successfully forces grappling. This creates a risk-reward dynamic: Chairez's best path is early submission, but if Bunes controls the grappling exchanges, Chairez may struggle to find openings as the fight progresses.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Bunes's takedown pressure (2.59 TD/15) creates opportunities to force grappling exchanges, but his 25% takedown accuracy means many attempts fail. Failed shots in a big cage create long resets where Chairez can capitalize on extended entries. If Bunes shoots from too far or lands in bad posture, Chairez's submission threats (triangles, armbars, back takes) become live. The Brazilian's aggressive grappling approach creates the exact chaos that Chairez thrives in—one mistake in posture or positioning could lead to a quick submission finish.
If Bunes successfully forces grappling and maintains top control, Chairez's 33% takedown defense becomes a problem. Bunes's 2.59 TD/15 volume means he'll keep trying, and if he can complete takedowns consistently, Chairez will spend time underneath. The Brazilian's 2.59 sub attempts/15 shows he's also dangerous on the ground, creating a double threat. If Bunes can avoid Chairez's submission traps and maintain dominant positions, he can accumulate control time and potentially find his own finish or win on the scorecards.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Chairez should stay long and make Bunes shoot from space. His 68" reach (vs Bunes's 69") is similar, giving him slight edge in clinch control and front headlock entries. The Mexican's strategy should focus on threatening front headlocks and snapdowns when Bunes commits to takedown attempts. By staying at range and forcing Bunes to travel farther for takedowns, Chairez creates more opportunities to catch extended entries and capitalize on submission opportunities in scrambles. His 44% striking accuracy is lower than ideal, but he doesn't need to outstrike Bunes—he needs to create grappling chaos.
If taken down, Chairez must attack immediately. His 100% finish rate in wins shows he doesn't need control time—he needs one mistake. Triangle and armbar threats force posture breaks and create scrambles where Chairez can find back takes or capitalize on submission opportunities. The Mexican's guard game is dangerous, and his ability to attack from bottom creates constant threats. Rather than trying to control minutes, Chairez should focus on creating submission opportunities in every grappling exchange, especially early when Bunes might be less disciplined with his positioning.
🚀 Felipe Bunes Key Advantages
Bunes's takedown volume (2.59 TD/15) is the only real takedown threat in this matchup, giving him the ability to force grappling exchanges. His 25% takedown accuracy isn't elite, but his volume means he'll keep trying and eventually complete some attempts. The Brazilian's 2.59 sub attempts/15 shows he's also dangerous on the ground, creating a dual threat of control and submission. His ability to mix takedown pressure with submission hunting makes him unpredictable and forces Chairez to defend multiple threats. In a big cage, failed shots create resets, but Bunes's persistence typically breaks through over time.
Bunes's 4.49 SLpM output and 53% accuracy show he's the more efficient striker in this matchup. His higher volume and cleaner connections give him an edge in striking exchanges. However, his 7.86 SApM is a major concern—he gets hit at an extreme rate, which is dangerous against a finisher like Chairez. The Brazilian's striking advantage is real, but it comes with significant defensive risk. His ability to land clean shots is offset by his vulnerability to counters and damage accumulation, especially if Chairez can hurt him enough to force desperate grappling exchanges.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Bunes's takedown pressure creates opportunities to force grappling, but if he shoots from too far or lands in bad posture, Chairez's submission threats become live. The Mexican's guard game is dangerous—triangles, armbars, and back takes are constant threats when Bunes loses discipline. If Bunes can complete takedowns but postures lazily or chases low-percentage submissions, Chairez can capitalize on mistakes. The Brazilian's 25% takedown accuracy means many attempts fail, and failed shots in a big cage create long resets where Chairez can find submission opportunities. This scenario becomes increasingly likely if Bunes can't maintain top-position discipline or if his takedown completion rate drops as the fight progresses.
Bunes's 5:48 average fight duration suggests he finishes fights quickly when he wins, but his 7.86 SApM means he takes significant damage. His high-volume striking (4.49 SLpM) and aggressive grappling (2.59 TD/15) require energy, and if he can't finish early, his damage intake becomes problematic. The Brazilian's cardio limitations become particularly apparent if the fight extends, especially when combined with his high absorption rate. At 35 years old, recovery and durability questions get louder if the pace gets ugly. Chairez's 8:56 average duration shows he can survive longer, and his lower damage intake (5.08 SApM) means he's more durable in extended exchanges.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Bunes should pressure behind basic strikes into level changes, avoiding free-shoots from too far. His 2.59 TD/15 volume is good, but he needs to finish takedowns to the fence first, then turn off the fence. The Brazilian's 25% takedown accuracy means he needs to set up shots properly—pressure with strikes, then change levels when Chairez reacts. On top, Bunes should prioritize position-first strategy, avoiding chasing low-percentage submissions that open reversals. His 2.59 sub attempts/15 shows he's dangerous, but discipline in top control is crucial to avoid Chairez's guard threats.
Bunes's best chance for victory lies in completing takedowns consistently and maintaining top control. His 2.59 TD/15 volume is impressive, but his 25% accuracy means he needs to be disciplined with his entries. The Brazilian should focus on finishing takedowns to the fence first, then consolidating top position. His 2.59 sub attempts/15 shows he's dangerous on the ground, but he should prioritize position-first to avoid Chairez's guard threats. By establishing early grappling control and maintaining discipline in top position, Bunes can accumulate control time and potentially find his own finish or win on the scorecards.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially helping Bunes's takedown attempts by providing space to set up shots, but also giving Chairez more room to avoid extended entries. Bunes's 2.59 TD/15 volume is impressive, but his 25% accuracy means many attempts fail in the big cage, creating long resets where Chairez can capitalize. The Brazilian's aggressive grappling approach creates the exact chaos that Chairez thrives in—failed shots lead to scrambles, and scrambles create submission opportunities. However, if Bunes can complete takedowns consistently, his top control and submission threats (2.59 sub attempts/15) become dangerous. The cage size helps both fighters in different ways: Bunes gets space to set up shots, but Chairez gets space to avoid them and find submission openings.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: takedown completion rate and damage intake. Bunes's 2.59 TD/15 vs Chairez's 0.0 represents the only real takedown threat, but his 25% accuracy creates risk. While Bunes's striking moments (4.49 SLpM, 53% accuracy) show cleaner connections, his 7.86 SApM is a major liability—he gets hit at an extreme rate. Chairez's damage economy (5.08 SApM vs Bunes's 7.86) means he absorbs significantly less damage, which is crucial for a finisher who needs to survive long enough to find submission opportunities. The Mexican's 100% finish rate in wins shows he doesn't need to win minutes—he needs one mistake. These differentials create a dynamic where Bunes has more control tools, but Chairez has better punishment/ambush alignment.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: takedown completion rate in the big cage, top-position discipline from Bunes, and early scramble outcomes. Bunes's 25% takedown accuracy means many attempts will fail, creating opportunities for Chairez to capitalize on extended entries. If Bunes can complete takedowns but loses posture or chases low-percentage submissions, Chairez's guard game (triangles, armbars, back takes) becomes live. The Brazilian's 2.59 sub attempts/15 shows he's dangerous on the ground, but reckless submission attempts open reversals. As the fight progresses, the first 6 minutes become crucial—both fighters are early finish threats, and whoever wins the first scramble likely wins the fight's direction. Chairez's 100% finish rate means if he wins, it's likely early via submission.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Felipe Bunes by Submission (30% probability), achieved through successful takedown completion and chaining attacks after forcing grappling. Bunes's decision path (20%) becomes viable if he can maintain top control and edge striking exchanges, while his KO/TKO path (10%) is mostly via GnP or damage collapse. Chairez's upset lane centers on early Submission (28%) via scrambles, triangles, or back takes when Bunes shoots messy or loses posture in top control. The Mexican's decision path (8%) requires Bunes to fade or fail to complete takedowns consistently, while his KO/TKO path (4%) is via damage accumulation or hurt-and-finish sequences. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Bunes can complete takedowns consistently and maintain discipline in top position, or if Chairez can capitalize on grappling chaos to find submission opportunities.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 28% | Fair: +257
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 63% | Fair: -170
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Underprices submission chaos – Both fighters have high submission rates, but market may undervalue early finish potential.
- • Overweights Bunes' takedown volume – His 2.59 TD/15 is impressive, but 25% accuracy in a big cage creates risk.
- • Undervalues Chairez's finishing instinct – 100% finish rate in wins means if he wins, it's likely early via submission.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Edgar Chairez
Scrambles, triangles/back takes in transitions
Mostly if Bunes fades or can't finish takedowns
Damage accumulation or hurt-and-finish sequence
💥Outcome Distribution - Felipe Bunes
Chaining attacks after forcing grappling
Top control + edge striking
Mostly GnP or damage collapse
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Felipe Bunes
- • First 6 minutes: Complete takedowns consistently before Chairez finds rhythm.
- • Top control: Maintain position-first strategy; avoid chasing low-percentage subs.
- • Discipline: Don't lose posture or open reversals; consolidate control time.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Edgar Chairez
- • Early scrambles: Capitalize on failed takedown attempts and extended entries.
- • Guard attacks: Threaten triangles/armbars immediately if taken down.
- • Submission traps: Create opportunities in transitions and posture breaks.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Submission-chaos heavy matchup with higher variance
✅Supporting Factors
- • 100% finish rate in wins (all 12 victories are finishes)
- • Lower SApM (5.08 vs 7.86) and better damage economy
- • Submission threats in scrambles and transitions
- • Early-finish threat (9 of 12 wins in Round 1)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • 33% takedown defense means time underneath if Bunes completes shots
- • No takedown offense (0.0 TD/15) limits control options
- • Bunes's takedown volume (2.59 TD/15) creates constant pressure
🏁Executive Summary
Edgar Chairez's opportunistic submission-first approach creates dangerous threats in scrambles and transitions, while Felipe Bunes's best equity centers on takedown volume and top control. The statistical differentials show Bunes has more control tools (2.59 TD/15 vs Chairez's 0.0), but Chairez has better punishment/ambush alignment. Bunes's 2.59 TD/15 volume is impressive, but his 25% accuracy means many attempts fail in the big cage, creating opportunities for Chairez. Chairez's 5.08 SApM vs Bunes's 7.86 represents superior damage economy, which is crucial for a finisher who needs to survive long enough to find submission opportunities. Chairez's 8:56 average fight duration with 9 of 12 wins in Round 1 demonstrates his early-finish threat, while Bunes's 5:48 duration shows he finishes quickly when he wins. The Mexican's 100% finish rate in wins means if he wins, it's likely early via submission, while Bunes's 85.7% finish rate shows he's also dangerous but can win decisions.
Prediction: Bunes by Submission most likely (30% probability) through successful takedown completion and chaining attacks after forcing grappling; Chairez's upset lane is early Submission (28%) via scrambles, triangles, or back takes when Bunes shoots messy or loses posture. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Bunes can complete takedowns consistently and maintain discipline in top position, or if Chairez can capitalize on grappling chaos to find submission opportunities. The first 6 minutes are crucial—both fighters are early finish threats, and whoever wins the first scramble likely wins the fight's direction.