Yadier del Valle vs Jordan Leavitt
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez
Saturday, February 21, 2026 • Toyota Center, Houston, Texas, USA
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Yadier del Valle
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Jordan Leavitt
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Yadier del Valle
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Isaac Dulgarian | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:41) |
| 2025-05-17 | Connor Matthews | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 2:54) |
| 2024-10-15 | Antônio Monteiro | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-09 | Pena Allamov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-04 | Adam Smith | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 1:06) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jordan Leavitt
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | Kurt Holobaugh | W | Submission (R1, 1:39) |
| 2023-11-18 | Chase Hooper | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 2:58) |
| 2023-02-25 | Victor Martinez | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 2:33) |
| 2022-07-23 | Paddy Pimblett | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 2:46) |
| 2022-04-16 | Trey Ogden | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Yadier del Valle Key Advantages
Del Valle operates at a completely different tempo with 7.49 SLpM versus Leavitt's 2.49—a 200% differential that shapes every exchange. This pace advantage (+4.03/min net) means del Valle wins more minutes at range and in the clinch, not just on the mat. Even if you discount for small UFC sample size, this gap is enormous. Leavitt's low offensive volume (2.49 SLpM) means he can't bank minutes standing, especially in a 30-foot cage where range management favors the active fighter.
The takedown defense gap is massive: del Valle's 67% versus Leavitt's 30%. In a grappling-heavy matchup, this is a "you can be put on your back" alarm for Leavitt. Del Valle's pressure grappling and clinch comfort (37% of sig strikes from clinch) means he can turn Leavitt's entries into front-headlock looks, separations, or clinch reversals—exactly the moments where RNC/guillotine threats appear. Even if Leavitt initiates grappling, del Valle's defensive wrestling suggests he'll dictate position more often.
Del Valle's last two wins are rear-naked chokes in Round 1—and Leavitt has been submitted by RNC twice in his last four losses (Hooper, Pimblett). This is a stylistic red flag. Del Valle's 1.68 subs per 15 minutes and his comfort in scrambles create a clear pathway: if he gets clinch control or top position, the back-take threat is real. Leavitt's submission skill goes both ways, but del Valle's recent finishing pattern directly exploits Leavitt's documented weakness.
In a 30-foot cage, the fighter who can win minutes at range AND choose when to grapple has a significant edge. Del Valle's numbers show he can win time on the feet (higher pace, better accuracy) and in the clinch, not just on the mat. Leavitt's path requires closing distance and forcing scrambles—harder to execute when the opponent maintains higher tempo and can control when grappling exchanges happen. Del Valle can use the space to build striking volume and dictate entries.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
With only 2 UFC fights, del Valle's metrics haven't been tested against high-level UFC competition extensively. While his stats are impressive, they could be inflated by limited sample size. If he gets impatient or overextends on clinch entries, he can be hit—his 3.46 SApM shows he does absorb strikes. Against a crafty scrambler like Leavitt, one scramble gone wrong could flip the entire fight dynamic.
If Leavitt gets the first back-take or dominant scramble position, del Valle's win equity drops sharply. Leavitt's submission instincts in chaotic transitions are legitimate—58% of his career wins by submission, many in Round 1. One overcommitted entry or failed clinch reversal could give Leavitt the scramble-first grappling he needs. Del Valle needs to avoid falling into Leavitt's submission traps while pursuing his own choke threats.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Del Valle should establish his pace advantage immediately—don't let Leavitt calmly set his entries. Throw volume at range (7.49 SLpM capability) with strong accuracy (67%) to force Leavitt into defensive mode. Make him defend strikes before initiating grappling. This high tempo prevents Leavitt from controlling when scrambles happen and builds a minute-winning cushion early.
Win pummeling exchanges in the clinch, hit short shots, threaten snaps. Del Valle's 37% of strikes from clinch shows comfort in this range. Don't chase takedowns recklessly—control the clinch position first, then decide whether to shoot or separate. This approach keeps Leavitt from forcing scramble-first grappling and allows del Valle to dictate when and how grappling exchanges occur.
If grappling happens, prioritize top control and don't over-chase submissions. Del Valle's choke threat is real (last 2 wins by R1 RNC), but he shouldn't fall into Leavitt's scramble traps. Maintain position, accumulate control time, and only attack the back when the opportunity is clean. This minimizes risk while maximizing scoring and maintaining the finish threat.
🚀 Jordan Leavitt Key Advantages
Leavitt's 75% finish rate (9 of 12 wins) with 58% by submission shows legitimate one-scramble finish ability. His wins are real—he can absolutely snatch subs early (5 of 12 wins in R1). In chaotic transitions and scrambles, Leavitt's submission instincts create legitimate variance. One bad scramble from del Valle, one overcommitted clinch entry, and the fight can flip instantly. This "snatch a choke" upside exists in every exchange.
Leavitt's heavy leg-kick tendency (52% of sig strikes to legs) can disrupt del Valle's movement and entries. In a big cage, slowing down the pressure fighter's base is critical. If Leavitt can land consistent calf kicks and inside leg kicks early, he can compromise del Valle's ability to shoot and clinch aggressively. This creates better scramble opportunities when del Valle's entries become more labored and predictable.
Leavitt's 2-inch reach advantage (71" vs 69") gives him a slight edge at range to set up leg kicks and manage distance before del Valle closes. While not massive, this reach differential combined with his leg-kick volume can help him control the early moments of exchanges and set up reactive takedown opportunities when del Valle commits to closing the gap.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Leavitt gets backed up against the fence and loses clinch position, his 30% TD defense means he can be grounded and controlled. Del Valle's pace differential and clinch scoring (37% of strikes from clinch) creates a scenario where Leavitt repeatedly loses position. Once underneath, Leavitt's recent losses show he can be submitted (2 RNC losses in last 4 fights)—exactly del Valle's finish pattern. This scenario compounds over 3 rounds in a big cage.
Leavitt's 2.49 SLpM means he can't bank minutes standing if del Valle maintains pace. In a big cage where forcing grappling is harder, Leavitt falling behind on volume creates desperation. His low TD accuracy (31%) means repeated stuffed shots drain energy and give del Valle chances to reverse and control. If the fight becomes a striking battle for even one round, Leavitt loses that round badly and needs to force grappling—which becomes harder when tired.
Leavitt's dossier is built from lightweight data (155.5 lbs). If he's truly fighting at featherweight (145 lbs), the cut/size tradeoff matters significantly. He may be physically strong, but cardio and durability can suffer in a big cage over 3 rounds. Combined with his already lower offensive output, a bad weight cut could leave him unable to sustain the scramble-first grappling he needs to win.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Leavitt must use his heavy leg-kick tendency (52% to legs) immediately to slow del Valle's movement and entries. Calf kicks and inside leg kicks compromise the base needed for pressure wrestling. In a big cage, this becomes critical—make del Valle's entries more labored and predictable, creating better scramble windows. Don't let del Valle move freely and build volume.
Leavitt's path requires scramble-first grappling, not slow wrestling. His 31% TD accuracy means he can't afford repeated stuffed shots in a big cage—each failed attempt drains energy and gives del Valle control opportunities. Instead, create chaotic transitions: reactive shots off del Valle's entries, scramble from bad positions, hunt for submission chains. This is where Leavitt's 1.33 subs per 15 and quick finish instincts shine.
Del Valle scores heavily from clinch (37% of strikes). Leavitt cannot afford to lose pummeling exchanges or get pinned to the fence. Either get clean takedown chains from clinch positions, or disengage and reset immediately. Staying in static clinch battles plays directly into del Valle's strengths and his superior TD defense (67% vs 30%). Reset, kick legs, create angles—don't fight in del Valle's preferred range.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics & Pace Control
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic that heavily favors del Valle's multi-phase approach. The big cage initially seems to favor Leavitt's need for space to set up entries, but it actually works against him—del Valle can build striking volume at range (7.49 SLpM) while choosing when to engage in clinch or grappling exchanges. Leavitt's low offensive output (2.49 SLpM) means he can't win minutes at range, and forcing grappling in a big cage requires closing more distance. Del Valle's pace differential (+4.03/min net) becomes amplified in the larger space, as he can maintain tempo across all phases while Leavitt struggles to dictate when and how exchanges happen.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals massive edges for del Valle across multiple dimensions. The pace differential (7.49 vs 2.49 SLpM) is not subtle—it's a 200% gap that shapes every standing exchange. The takedown defense gap (67% vs 30%) is enormous in a grappling-heavy matchup, signaling Leavitt can be grounded when del Valle chooses. Del Valle's better TD accuracy (43% vs 31%) combined with superior submission rate (1.68 vs 1.33 per 15) means he's more likely to both initiate and finish grappling sequences. Even Leavitt's advantages (slight reach edge, submission threat) exist within a framework where del Valle controls more phases and wins more minutes. The composite scores reflect this: del Valle 67.5 technical / 80 cardio versus Leavitt 32.5 technical / 20 cardio.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Four critical factors will determine the outcome: Can Leavitt reliably force grappling in a big cage without giving up position? Who gets the first back-take or first dominant clinch sequence? Can del Valle's pace show up again and build minute-winning volume? Will Leavitt's 30% TD defense hold or collapse under pressure? The first back-take is particularly decisive—whoever gets it likely wins the round and possibly the fight via submission. Del Valle's last two wins (R1 RNC) directly match Leavitt's documented weakness (2 RNC losses in last 4). Leavitt's submission threat is real, but it requires scramble opportunities that del Valle's superior positional control may never allow.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Yadier del Valle by Submission (38% probability), achieved through his early choke threat—particularly rear-naked chokes that have finished his last two fights and match Leavitt's documented vulnerability. Del Valle's Decision path (28%) involves banking rounds through pace control and positional dominance when he can't find the finish. His KO/TKO path (8%) exists if accumulating damage forces a stoppage. Leavitt's best chance is Submission (14%)—snatching a choke in a chaotic scramble before del Valle establishes positional control. Leavitt's Decision path (8%) requires surviving 15 minutes and stealing enough grappling exchanges, while his KO/TKO path (4%) is minimal given del Valle's defensive soundness. Conviction rating: 7/10. The statistical edges are clear, but del Valle's small UFC sample (2 fights) and Leavitt's legitimate submission threat create variance.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
GOOD VALUE
SLIGHT VALUE
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Yadier del Valle
Primary path via fence control and rides
Attritional GNP and accumulative pressure
Back-takes off rides create RNC chances
💥Outcome Distribution - Jordan Leavitt
Best lane via intercepts and counters
Requires extended range control in big cage
Low historical submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Jordan Leavitt
- • First 7–10 minutes: Highest intercept KO equity.
- • Perimeter control: Teeps + calf kicks to stall entries.
- • Short pockets: Burst then reset; avoid extended clinch.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Yadier del Valle
- • Pace accumulation: Volume differential builds minute-winning margins.
- • Positional control: Superior TD defense prevents Leavitt's entries.
- • Submission threat: RNC finishes match Leavitt's documented weakness.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear statistical edges, but small UFC sample and submission variance create uncertainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive pace differential (+4.03/min net pace)
- • Enormous TD defense gap (67% vs 30%)
- • Recent RNC finishes match Leavitt's weakness
- • Superior composites (67.5 vs 32.5 technical)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Del Valle's small UFC sample (only 2 fights)
- • Leavitt's submission snatch threat (75% finish rate)
- • One bad scramble can flip the entire fight
🏁Executive Summary
Yadier del Valle's multi-phase dominance should systematically compress Leavitt's options in the 30-foot cage, banking safe minutes through pace control and positional superiority, while Jordan Leavitt's best equity centers on scramble submissions and chaotic grappling exchanges before del Valle establishes his preferred rhythm. The statistical differentials heavily favor del Valle: his 7.49 SLpM vs Leavitt's 2.49 creates a 200% pace advantage that shapes every standing exchange, while his 67% TD defense vs Leavitt's 30% represents an enormous gap in defensive wrestling that determines who gets grounded. Del Valle's 8:57 average fight time with 60% finish rate (including 40% by submission) demonstrates both finishing ability and cardio efficiency, while Leavitt's 6:17 duration and 75% finish rate shows explosive threat but also vulnerability when fights extend. Del Valle's ability to win minutes across all phases creates a scoring framework that favors his approach, especially over 3 rounds where pace accumulation becomes decisive.
Prediction: Del Valle by Submission most likely (38% probability) through early RNC threat that matches Leavitt's documented weakness; Del Valle's Decision path (28%) involves banking rounds through pace and position when he can't find the finish. Leavitt's upset lane is Submission (14%)—snatching a choke in a chaotic scramble before del Valle establishes control. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Leavitt can force scramble-first grappling and find one submission window, or if del Valle's superior positional control and pace dominance prevent those chaotic moments from ever materializing.