Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato
Men's Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2
Saturday, March 7, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Luke Fernandez
6-0-0
Luke Fernandez
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rodolfo Bellato
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Luke Fernandez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-07 | Rafael Pergentino | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 0:15) |
| 2025-05-24 | Christian Edwards | W | Decision - Unanimous (R4, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-13 | Gregg Ellis | W | TKO - Left Hook (R1, 4:49) |
| 2023-12-15 | Peter New | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:42) |
| 2023-06-16 | Jesse Romans | W | TKO (R1, 2:02) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Rodolfo Bellato
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Navajo Stirling | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-14 | Paul Craig | NC | No Contest - Illegal Upkick (R1, 4:59) |
| 2025-02-08 | Jimmy Crute | D | Draw - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-02 | Ihor Potieria | W | TKO - Ground and Pound (R2, 4:17) |
| 2023-10-03 | Murtaza Talha | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 4:46) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Luke Fernandez Key Advantages
Fernandez is a front-loaded finisher with 4 Round 1 wins and 5 career KO/TKOs out of 6 total victories (83.3% finish rate). His explosive pressure boxing with immediate kill instincts creates early fight-ending opportunities. The one clean UFC stat signal: Bellato's striking defense is 46% with 5.86 absorbed per minute—he's highly hittable at LHW pace. If Fernandez lands the first clean power shot, he can turn any wobble into a sprint-to-the-fence finish.
In the 30-ft cage, Fernandez has more space for his initial explosive blitz before opponents hit the fence. His fast start strategy forces panic reactions which he swarms on hurt opponents. Bellato's porous defensive profile (46% StrDef, 5.86 SApM) makes him vulnerable to these early explosive exchanges where Fernandez can capitalize on any clean connection.
Fernandez enters undefeated at 6-0 with 100% win rate and is riding a 6-fight winning streak. This psychological edge combined with his explosive finishing ability creates confidence in his early aggression. Against Bellato who is coming off a decision loss to Stirling, the momentum and mental edge favors the undefeated prospect.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Fernandez's 0:15 UFC stat line tells us basically nothing about his ability to defend for 10-15 minutes at UFC pace. His UFCStats (32.00 SLpM, 100% accuracy, 100% defense) are artifacts from 15 seconds, not predictive metrics. If Bellato survives the first storm and the fight enters round 2 without major damage, we enter unknown territory for Fernandez's defensive layers and minute-winning ability.
UFCStats show 0% TD defense for Fernandez, but that's "no reps," not "bad." Still, Bellato represents the first opponent with credible MMA wrestling/Top pressure upside. If Bellato can touch clinch early to sap Fernandez's explosiveness and threaten takedowns (even if just to freeze Fernandez's hands), it changes how freely Fernandez can load up on power shots.
The 30-ft cage cuts both ways: more space to retreat means the first blitz may not instantly hit the fence, giving Bellato more room to survive the early onslaught. If Fernandez can't trap him quickly, Bellato's pressure becomes easier to manage and his clinch/takedown threat becomes more valuable in the open space.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Fernandez should start fast, force exchanges, and aim head first, then swarm. His explosive pressure boxing with immediate kill instincts creates early fight-ending opportunities. He shouldn't over-chase in open space—cutting angles avoids long resets in the big cage. If Bellato starts level-changing, Fernandez should punish with uppercuts/short hooks, then exit. The key is landing the first clean power shot before Bellato establishes rhythm.
Fernandez's gameplan centers on early aggression and finishing instincts. He needs to blitz into Bellato's porous defensive window (46% StrDef) and turn any wobble into a sprint-to-the-fence finish. The 30-ft cage provides more space for his initial explosive blitz. If he can't finish early, Fernandez may need to edge a decision by banking big moments—though his UFC sample doesn't prove that pace management yet.
🚀 Rodolfo Bellato Key Advantages
Bellato's average UFC fight time of 10:26 and broader minute sample (4 completed UFC fights) gives him the clearer "rounds 2-3" identity. If the fight hits round 2 without major damage, Bellato's minute-winning probability climbs sharply because he has the proven UFC-duration base that Fernandez lacks (only 15 seconds of UFC action).
Bellato has both KO/TKO (7 career wins) and submission (4 career wins) equity, making him dangerous in multiple phases. Once Fernandez slows or gets reckless after the initial blitz, Bellato can end it via strikes, ground and pound, or submissions. His finish rate of 91.7% (11 finishes in 12 career wins) shows he capitalizes when opponents fade or make mistakes.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Bellato's biggest risk is getting caught early by Fernandez's explosive blitz. His porous defensive profile (46% StrDef, 5.86 SApM) makes him highly vulnerable to early power shots. If Fernandez lands the first clean connection before Bellato can establish rhythm or touch clinch, the fight could end quickly. Bellato cannot afford "straight-line pressure with chin up" here—he needs layered entries to avoid eating counters.
If Bellato can't pin Fernandez down or establish clinch control, he can be forced into ugly chases. The 30-ft cage makes clean fence-wrestling harder; if Fernandez circles well, Bellato's entries get longer and riskier. Bellato's defensive stats (46% StrDef) mean he's living in the danger zone at 205—one clean Fernandez connection can override everything, especially in the first round.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Bellato's gameplan should focus on surviving the first 2 minutes without ego exchanges. He needs to mix jab/low kick to slow Fernandez's springs and touch clinch early to sap explosiveness. Then threaten takedowns (even if just to freeze Fernandez's hands). The key is layered entries: jab/low kick → level change feint → clinch touch, avoiding straight-line pressure that exposes him to counters.
If Bellato survives the first storm, he should turn it into an attritional fight. His average fight time (10:26) and higher minute-count at UFC level gives him the clearer "rounds 2-3" identity. Once Fernandez slows or gets reckless, Bellato can end it via KO/TKO, ground and pound, or submissions. His multi-phase threat (7 KOs + 4 subs) makes him dangerous once the fight extends past the initial blitz phase.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—the big cage initially gives Fernandez more space for his explosive blitz before opponents hit the fence, but also provides Bellato more room to survive the early onslaught. Fernandez's early KO power (83.3% finish rate, 4 Round 1 wins) creates immediate danger, but Bellato's proven UFC duration (10:26 avg fight time) gives him the clearer "rounds 2-3" identity. The big cage cuts both ways: Fernandez has more space to retreat early, but if he slows, Bellato's pressure becomes easier to manage and his clinch/takedown threat becomes more valuable in the open space.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a classic small-sample vs proven-UFC-minutes dynamic. Fernandez's UFC stats (32.00 SLpM, 100% accuracy, 100% defense) are artifacts from 15 seconds, not predictive metrics. The one clean, decisive stat signal: Bellato's striking defense is 46% with 5.86 absorbed per minute—he is highly hittable at LHW pace. If Fernandez is truly a one-shot finisher at UFC level, that's the exact defensive profile you want to see across from him. However, Bellato's broader UFC minute sample (4 completed fights) and multi-phase threat (7 KOs + 4 subs) give him the better overall win share across 100 simulations if the fight extends past the first blitz phase.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: Does Fernandez land the first clean power shot before Bellato establishes rhythm? Bellato's entry quality (feet → clinch) without eating a counter—he cannot afford "straight-line pressure with chin up" and needs layered entries. Round 2 pace differential—if the fight hits round 2 without major damage, Bellato's minute-winning probability climbs sharply because he has the proven UFC-duration base. The key factor is separating "Fernandez is explosive" (real) from "Fernandez is a 32.00 SLpM, 100% accuracy machine" (not real—just a 0:15 sample artifact).
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Rodolfo Bellato by Decision (22% probability) or KO/TKO (28% probability), achieved by surviving the first storm and turning it into an attritional fight where his proven UFC minute sample and multi-phase threat set give him the advantage. Fernandez wins most of his share early via KO (32% KO/TKO probability, 6% Decision). Bellato's submission path (12% probability) becomes viable once Fernandez slows or gets reckless. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Fernandez lands the first clean power shot before Bellato establishes rhythm—if yes, Fernandez by KO becomes extremely live given Bellato's defensive profile.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
GOOD VALUE
SLIGHT VALUE
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Luke Fernandez
Primary path via fence control and rides
Attritional GNP and accumulative pressure
Back-takes off rides create RNC chances
💥Outcome Distribution - Rodolfo Bellato
Best lane via intercepts and counters
Requires extended range control in big cage
Low historical submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Rodolfo Bellato
- • First 2 minutes: Survive + collect reads (no ego exchanges).
- • Touch clinch early: Sap explosiveness, then threaten takedowns.
- • Layered entries: Jab/low kick → level change feint → clinch touch.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Luke Fernandez
- • Start fast: Force exchanges, aim head first, then swarm.
- • Don't over-chase: Cut angles to avoid long resets in big cage.
- • Punish level changes: Uppercuts/short hooks if Bellato starts level-changing.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Conviction Rating
Fernandez's UFC statistical profile is not trustworthy yet because it's built on 15 seconds. Forces more "matchup logic" than clean data modeling.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Bellato's defensive numbers (46% StrDef, 5.86 SApM) create a real early KO window for Fernandez
- • Bellato's broader UFC minute sample and multi-phase threat set give him better overall win share
- • Fernandez's explosive finishing ability (83.3% finish rate, 4 Round 1 wins)
- • Bellato's proven UFC duration (10:26 avg fight time) vs Fernandez's 15 seconds
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Fernandez's UFC stats are artifacts from 15 seconds, not predictive metrics
- • Unknown depth & defense for Fernandez at UFC pace (0:15 sample)
- • Bellato's porous defensive profile makes early KO window real but unpredictable
🏁Executive Summary
This is a classic small-sample, big-power matchup: Fernandez has one UFC appearance (15 seconds), while Bellato has real UFC minutes and a much clearer statistical profile. The hard part is separating "Fernandez is explosive" (real) from "Fernandez is a 32.00 SLpM, 100% accuracy machine" (not real—just a 0:15 sample artifact). Fernandez wins most of his share early via KO (32% KO/TKO probability), while Bellato wins most of his share by dragging it past the "first blitz" phase and winning minutes (with some late finishing). Bellato's defensive stats (46% StrDef, 5.86 SApM) create a real early KO window for Fernandez, but Bellato's broader UFC minute sample and multi-phase threat set give him the better overall win share across 100 simulations (62% vs 38%).
Prediction: Rodolfo Bellato most likely (62% probability) by Decision (22%), KO/TKO (28%), or Submission (12%) if he survives the first storm and turns it into an attritional fight. Luke Fernandez's path (38% total) is primarily early KO/TKO (32%) if he lands the first clean power shot before Bellato establishes rhythm. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Fernandez lands the first clean power shot before Bellato establishes rhythm—if yes, Fernandez by KO becomes extremely live given Bellato's defensive profile.