Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2
Saturday, March 7, 2026 • T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, USA
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Gregory Rodrigues
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Brunno Ferreira
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Gregory Rodrigues
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Roman Kopylov | W | Decision (3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-28 | Jack Hermansson | W | KO/TKO (1, 4:21) |
| 2025-02-15 | Jared Cannonier | L | KO/TKO (4, 0:21) |
| 2024-07-27 | Christian Leroy Duncan | W | Decision (3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-10 | Brad Tavares | W | KO/TKO (3, 0:55) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Brunno Ferreira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Marvin Vettori | W | Decision (3, 5:00) |
| 2025-07-19 | Jackson McVey | W | Submission (1, 3:35) |
| 2025-03-08 | Armen Petrosyan | W | Submission (2, 4:27) |
| 2024-10-26 | Abus Magomedov | L | Submission (3, 3:14) |
| 2024-06-08 | Dustin Stoltzfus | W | KO/TKO (1, 4:51) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Gregory Rodrigues Key Advantages
Gregory brings a significant striking output advantage (5.54 SLpM vs 3.54) combined with +5 inches in height and +3 inches in reach. In the 30-foot cage, this dimensional advantage amplifies his ability to control distance with jab-cross combinations and hit-and-exit sequences. Rodrigues can effectively "work from outside" while Brunno must close distance to be effective. This volume differential typically translates directly to round scoring—Gregory can accumulate points through consistent output while staying in the safer striking range. His 52% accuracy shows he's not just throwing volume blindly, but landing meaningful strikes that judges reward.
The 90% vs 54% takedown defense gap is fight-defining. Gregory can threaten takedowns (2.21 per 15min, 38% accuracy) as a "Plan B" when striking exchanges get dicey, while Brunno has no such safety valve—his 54% TD defense means Gregory can reliably secure takedowns to control rounds or reset momentum. This asymmetry forces Brunno to win purely on the feet without any wrestling bailout option. Even if Gregory doesn't finish from top position, the ability to mix in takedowns for control time and score late-round points gives him multiple paths to victory that Brunno simply doesn't have access to in reverse.
Gregory's 8:29 average fight duration shows he regularly goes deep into fights, with his round distribution heavily weighted to R3 (7 wins). This cardio profile suits a 3-round bout where maintaining high pace (5.54 SLpM) becomes crucial. Brunno, despite his explosive finishing ability (5:39 avg duration), recently showed he can go 3 rounds (Vettori decision win), but his historical pattern is early finishes (10 of 15 wins in R1). If Gregory survives the early storm and drags Brunno into championship rounds, the cardio and pace advantage could become decisive—Gregory's wrestling threat forces Brunno to defend, which drains energy without scoring offense.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Gregory's 5.04 SApM (strikes absorbed per minute) shows he accepts damage when locked in exchanges. Brunno's knockdown average of 1.52 means when he connects clean in tight quarters, fights can end abruptly. If Gregory gets drawn into phone booth brawls instead of maintaining his jab-and-move gameplan, Brunno's explosive power (9 KO/TKO wins) becomes a real finishing threat. The danger multiplies in scrambles or when Gregory over-commits to takedown entries—Brunno has shown ability to capitalize on opponent mistakes with fast strikes (see his R1 finishes).
While Gregory's takedown attempts (2.21 per 15) can control rounds, poorly timed shots or sloppy transitions could expose him to Brunno's submission game (0.76 sub attempts per 15, with 5 career submission wins including recent armbars vs McVey and Petrosyan). If Gregory shoots predictably or finds himself in bottom position during scrambles, Brunno has the opportunistic grappling to hunt for quick submissions. The Cannonier loss (TKO R4) also showed Gregory can be vulnerable late when damaged—if Brunno lands clean early, subsequent takedown attempts become riskier as Gregory's durability becomes compromised.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Gregory should start with his physical advantages: use the +3 reach to establish a stiff jab, land 1-2 combinations to the head (his 75% head striking tendency), then pivot out before Brunno can counter. The 30-foot cage gives ample room to circle and reset after each exchange. By maintaining distance and accumulating volume (5.54 SLpM), Gregory can bank rounds without taking unnecessary risks. The key is discipline—don't chase finishes, just score consistently and force Brunno to be the aggressor who must close distance against the longer fighter.
When Brunno explodes forward or when Gregory needs to control tempo (especially late in rounds), threaten takedowns. With Brunno's 54% TD defense, Gregory can realistically secure 1-2 takedowns per round if needed. The goal isn't necessarily to finish—it's to accumulate control time, tire Brunno's hips, and bank scoring minutes. Even failed attempts where Gregory pressures against the cage eat clock and prevent Brunno from getting into rhythm. This wrestling threat keeps Brunno honest and prevents him from loading up on power shots without consequence.
🚀 Brunno Ferreira Key Advantages
Brunno's 93.3% finish rate (14 of 15 career wins) combined with a knockdown average of 1.52 makes him one of the most dangerous finishers in the middleweight division. He brings legitimate dual-threat finishing ability: 9 KO/TKO wins show devastating power, while 5 submission victories (recent armbars vs McVey and Petrosyan) prove he's dangerous in scrambles. His 10 first-round finishes demonstrate early explosiveness—if he connects clean or catches Gregory in a compromised position early, this fight can end abruptly. Gregory's 5.04 SApM suggests he's hittable, creating windows for Brunno's power shots to land decisively.
Brunno absorbs significantly less damage (3.54 SApM) compared to Gregory's 5.04, showing better defensive selectivity. He doesn't get drawn into prolonged exchanges where volume accumulates—instead, he picks his moments and counters explosively. This damage economy becomes crucial if the fight goes into later rounds: Brunno will be fresher and less compromised. His 50% striking defense is similar to Gregory's 51%, but the lower absorption rate suggests he's better at avoiding sustained punishment, which preserves his finishing ability deep into fights.
Brunno's 0.76 submission attempts per 15 (vs Gregory's 0.29) combined with 5 career sub wins gives him a real finishing path in scrambles. If Gregory shoots takedowns and gets sloppy in transitions, Brunno has shown he can capitalize with armbars and guillotines. The recent Vettori decision win proved Brunno can threaten submissions even against elite grapplers—he attempted multiple sub attacks and kept Vettori honest throughout. Gregory's takedown-heavy approach (2.21 per 15) creates scramble opportunities where Brunno's opportunistic grappling becomes dangerous, especially if Gregory's timing or technique breaks down under fatigue or damage.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
In the 30-foot cage with Gregory holding +5 inches height and +3 reach, Brunno faces a geometric nightmare if forced to chase. Gregory can jab, circle, and reset while Brunno burns energy closing distance without landing meaningful shots. With only 3.54 SLpM output, Brunno doesn't have the volume to win rounds purely on activity—he needs clean, damaging moments. If Gregory maintains discipline and refuses to engage in the pocket, Brunno could "lose minutes" where he's pursuing but not scoring, gradually falling behind on scorecards. The large cage amplifies this problem: more space for Gregory to maneuver, more distance for Brunno to cover.
Brunno's 54% takedown defense is a glaring vulnerability against Gregory's 2.21 TD per 15 and 38% accuracy. If Gregory secures takedowns (which is statistically likely), Brunno has no easy path back up—his wrestling isn't strong enough to consistently reverse or scramble free. Being held down for even 1-2 minutes per round while Gregory lands control strikes and accumulates time is a scorecard killer. Worse, defending takedowns drains Brunno's explosiveness—the very attribute he needs for his finishing sequences. This creates a compounding problem: failed TD defense → energy loss → reduced finishing threat → more vulnerability to subsequent takedowns.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Brunno can't win by chasing linearly—he needs to cut off the cage and force Gregory into exchanges on the fence or in the pocket where his power and speed advantages materialize. Use lateral movement to trap Gregory against the cage, then explode forward with combinations targeting head and body. The goal is 1-2 "big moments" per round: a clean knockdown, a rock, or sustained pocket pressure that forces Gregory to shell up or shoot desperation takedowns. Brunno's 1.52 knockdown average shows that when he connects, fights change trajectory rapidly. Don't chase volume—hunt for finish opportunities.
When Gregory inevitably shoots takedowns (his Plan B), Brunno must make them costly. Don't accept bottom position passively—immediately scramble, hunt for guillotines, threaten armbars, and force Gregory to respect submission danger. The goal isn't necessarily to finish, but to make takedowns risky and energy-draining for Gregory. If Brunno can stuff or reverse 1-2 attempts per round, he preserves his own energy while taxing Gregory's, and prevents the wrestling from becoming a one-way control game. His recent work against Vettori showed he can threaten subs even when outgrappled overall—use that same opportunism here.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot cage significantly favors Gregory Rodrigues' gameplan while complicating Brunno Ferreira's path to victory. Gregory's +5 inch height and +3 inch reach advantages become amplified in the larger space—he can establish his jab-cross combinations, circle away from danger, and reset positioning without getting cornered. The extra room allows him to implement hit-and-move sequences while forcing Brunno to chase, burning energy without landing meaningful shots. For Brunno, the large cage represents a geometric puzzle: he must cut off angles and force Gregory into the pocket, but the additional space makes this exponentially harder. Every successful evasion by Gregory means more ground for Brunno to cover, more energy expended, and fewer opportunities to unleash his explosive finishing sequences.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: the striking volume/distance war and the takedown offense/defense asymmetry. Gregory's 5.54 SLpM vs Brunno's 3.54 represents a +2.0 output advantage that accumulates dramatically over three rounds—Gregory can score 180+ more strikes if the fight stays upright. However, Brunno's 93.3% finish rate and 1.52 knockdown average means he doesn't need to win minutes, just moments. The takedown battle features the most decisive statistical mismatch: Gregory's 90% TD defense vs Brunno's 54% creates a one-way street where Gregory can reliably secure takedowns for control while Brunno has no reciprocal threat. This asymmetry gives Gregory multiple paths to victory (volume decision, control-heavy decision, late finish) while Brunno must rely almost exclusively on explosive finishing sequences.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: the volume/distance control battle, takedown offense vs defense, and finishing threat windows. Gregory's 5.54 SLpM vs Brunno's 3.54 represents a volume war where Gregory can accumulate scoring minutes through consistent output, but Brunno only needs 1-2 big moments per round to shift momentum dramatically. The takedown battle features Gregory's 2.21 TD/15 + 38% accuracy against Brunno's porous 54% defense—this mismatch gives Gregory a reliable bailout option and control scoring path that Brunno cannot reciprocate. Finally, finishing windows: Brunno's 93.3% finish rate and 1.52 knockdown average mean he's always one explosive sequence away from ending the fight, but Gregory's 8:29 average duration shows he regularly survives into later rounds where his cardio and volume advantages compound.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Gregory Rodrigues by Decision (32% probability), achieved through consistent striking volume from range, selective takedowns for control, and superior cardio over three rounds. Gregory's KO/TKO path (25%) becomes viable when Brunno overextends chasing entries or gets caught by accumulating head strikes. Brunno's upset lane centers on explosive KO/TKO (18%) via power shots when he successfully closes distance, or Submission (15%) if he can capitalize on Gregory's takedown attempts with opportunistic armbars or guillotines. The fight dynamic favors Gregory's systematic point-scoring approach over Brunno's finish-or-nothing style, especially in a three-round format where Gregory can bank early rounds and defend a lead rather than needing a late finish.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
GOOD VALUE
SLIGHT VALUE
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Gregory Rodrigues
Primary path via fence control and rides
Attritional GNP and accumulative pressure
Back-takes off rides create RNC chances
💥Outcome Distribution - Brunno Ferreira
Best lane via intercepts and counters
Requires extended range control in big cage
Low historical submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Brunno Ferreira
- • First 7–10 minutes: Highest intercept KO equity.
- • Perimeter control: Teeps + calf kicks to stall entries.
- • Short pockets: Burst then reset; avoid extended clinch.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Gregory Rodrigues
- • Chain shots: Re-mats and rides bank control and sap pace.
- • Damage economy: Keep exchanges short; minimize risk.
- • Late minutes: Safer control edges decision likelihood.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong volume & reach advantages, but explosive finishing threat creates variance
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive TD Defense gap (90% vs 54%)
- • +2.0 SLpM volume advantage in large cage
- • +5" height, +3" reach for distance control
- • Superior cardio (8:29 vs 5:39 avg duration)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Brunno's explosive finishing threat (93.3% finish rate)
- • Gregory's 5.04 SApM makes him hittable
- • Submission threats in scrambles (0.76 sub/15)
🏁Executive Summary
Gregory Rodrigues' systematic volume-based approach combined with dimensional advantages and wrestling control should steadily compress Brunno Ferreira's explosive finishing windows, banking safe minutes through distance management and selective takedowns. The statistical differentials heavily favor Rodrigues: his 5.54 SLpM vs Brunno's 3.54 creates a +2.0 striking volume advantage that accumulates dramatically over three rounds, while the massive TD Defense gap (90% vs 54%) gives Gregory a reliable bailout option that Brunno cannot reciprocate. Gregory's +5 inch height and +3 inch reach advantages become amplified in the 30-foot cage, allowing him to implement jab-and-move sequences while forcing Brunno to chase. However, Brunno's 93.3% finish rate and 1.52 knockdown average mean he's always one explosive sequence away from changing the fight's trajectory—Gregory's 5.04 SApM shows he's hittable when exchanges heat up.
Prediction: Rodrigues by Decision most likely (32% probability) through consistent striking volume from range and selective takedowns for control; Brunno's upset lane centers on explosive KO/TKO (18%) when he successfully closes distance and lands power shots, or Submission (15%) if he capitalizes on Gregory's takedown attempts with opportunistic armbars. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Gregory can maintain disciplined distance management and survive Brunno's early finishing threats before his volume and cardio advantages become decisive in later rounds.