Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr.
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2
Saturday, March 7, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage) • T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
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Rob Font
22-9-0
Rob Font
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Raul Rosas Jr.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Rob Font
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | David Martinez | L | Decision (3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-22 | Jean Matsumoto | W | Decision (3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-19 | Kyler Phillips | W | Decision (3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-02 | Deiveson Figueiredo | L | Decision (3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-05 | Cory Sandhagen | L | Decision (5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Raul Rosas Jr.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Vince Morales | W | Decision (3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-14 | Aoriqileng | W | Decision (3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-08 | Ricky Turcios | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (2, 2:22) |
| 2023-09-16 | Terrence Mitchell | W | TKO - Ground Strikes (1, 0:54) |
| 2023-04-08 | Christian Rodriguez | L | Decision (3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (72.0 vs 54.0) and Grappling Composite (48.0 vs 82.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Rob Font Key Advantages
Font's 5.43 SLpM compared to Rosas Jr.'s 1.51 represents a massive 3.6x output differential. This isn't just volume for volume's sake—Font's technical boxing fundamentals, built around a consistent jab and follow-up combinations, create a minute-winning framework when fights stay upright. His 46% striking accuracy ensures he's not just throwing wild shots but landing meaningful strikes. In the 30-foot cage, Font has the space to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred boxing range where his reach advantage (71.5" vs 67") and footwork keep Rosas at distance while stacking clean scoring minutes.
Font's 57% striking defense at range creates a solid first layer that prevents Rosas from easily closing distance through striking exchanges. Combined with only absorbing 3.70 strikes per minute, Font maintains a clean defensive profile that allows him to stay fresh throughout the fight. This defensive efficiency is crucial—it means Font isn't getting hit clean while he works his volume game, and Rosas can't hurt him enough standing to force desperation in his wrestling entries. The veteran's ability to slip, parry, and maintain proper distance keeps the fight in the phase where he has the clearest advantage.
Font's 71.5" reach advantage over Rosas Jr.'s 67" creates a significant barrier for the young grappler to overcome. This physical edge allows Font to jab first, land straight rights from outside Rosas' punching range, and force the wrestler to cover more distance before initiating shots. In the large 30-foot cage, this reach differential compounds—Rosas must cross more open space under fire, eating jabs and combinations that both score points and drain his confidence. Font can dictate when and where engagements occur, using his length to control the centerline and punish entries with counters.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Font's 42% takedown defense is the single biggest red flag in this matchup. Against a chain-wrestler averaging 4.01 takedowns per 15 minutes, this defensive vulnerability creates an open door for Rosas to impose his game. Even if Font stuffs some early shots, Rosas' high attempt rate and persistence typically break through, especially as Font's legs tire from defending repeated entries. Once the fight hits the mat, Font's striking volume drops to zero while Rosas accumulates control time and submission threats, fundamentally shifting the fight's momentum and scoring optics.
At 38 years old, Font faces a 21-year-old opponent with a significant athletic advantage. The age gap matters most in scrambles and explosive get-ups—areas where Font must work twice as hard to escape positions that Rosas can maintain with youthful energy and strength. Font's cardio is solid for striking exchanges, but defending persistent takedown attempts and fighting off the mat drains his tank faster than it would have five years ago. If Rosas gets early takedowns, Font's ability to recover position and maintain his striking pace diminishes as rounds progress, creating a snowball effect where the younger fighter's pressure becomes overwhelming.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Font must weaponize his jab as both a scoring tool and a range-finder to keep Rosas at the end of his reach. By pumping the jab consistently—targeting the head to obscure vision and the body to slow forward movement—Font can force Rosas to shoot from suboptimal distances where stuffing takedowns becomes easier. The jab also serves as a setup for straight rights and combinations that accumulate scoring volume. Font should maintain constant lateral movement, circling away from Rosas' power side and resetting to center when pressured to the fence, never allowing the young wrestler to corner him or establish sustained pressure sequences.
If taken down, Font cannot accept positions or allow Rosas to establish control. He must immediately initiate stand-up sequences—posting on Rosas' hips, creating space, and scrambling to his feet even if it costs him strikes or momentary position. Every second on the mat is a win for Rosas, so Font needs to treat grappling exchanges as emergencies requiring urgent escape. When pressed to the fence, Font should use active footwork and handfighting to prevent Rosas from securing body locks or getting to his hips, creating separation and returning to open space where his striking advantage reasserts itself.
🚀 Raul Rosas Jr. Key Advantages
Rosas Jr.'s 4.01 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Font's 0.76 represents a 5.3x differential—the single most dominant statistical edge in this matchup. This isn't just about volume; it's about Rosas' ability to chain attempts, pressure Font to the fence, and execute multiple entry styles (singles, doubles, body locks). His 41% accuracy against Font's woeful 42% takedown defense creates a clear path to control. Once Rosas establishes top position, his wrestling pedigree and young man's strength allow him to maintain rides, accumulate control time, and force Font into defensive grappling—exactly where the veteran doesn't want to be. In a 3-round fight, one strong grappling round likely decides the outcome, and Rosas has the tools to replicate that pattern multiple times.
Rosas Jr.'s 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes and career 72.7% finish rate create a legitimate fight-ending layer that Font must respect. Six of Rosas' 11 career wins have come via submission, with his rear-naked choke being particularly deadly from back control. This isn't just a grappler who holds position—he actively hunts finishes, forcing opponents to defend constant submission threats while he accumulates control time. Font's get-up attempts become dangerous moments where his back is exposed, and Rosas has shown the ability to capitalize on these scrambles. The submission threat also affects judging: rounds where Rosas dominates position while threatening finishes score more favorably than simple control without advancement.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Font can maintain distance and deny Rosas' entries consistently, the striker's massive volume advantage (5.43 SLpM vs 1.51) becomes a round-losing problem for the young grappler. Font's technical boxing and reach edge allow him to score clean minutes without taking damage, and if Rosas struggles to close distance or gets discouraged after stuffed shots, Font can outland him 3-to-1 or worse over 15 minutes. The large cage gives Font more room to circle and reset, and if Rosas doesn't establish his wrestling early and often, Font's jab-heavy game can pile up scoring that's impossible to overcome without dominant grappling rounds. This scenario requires Rosas to respect Font's counters and commit fully to his wrestling despite the reach differential.
Font's veteran savvy and counter-striking ability mean every Rosas entry carries risk. If Font can time uppercuts or knees as Rosas shoots—or land clean straights that discourage further attempts—the psychological momentum shifts. Rosas is young and hasn't faced many elite strikers who can punish his wrestling entries with precision counters. A early knockdown or significant damage from a counter could alter Rosas' willingness to shoot aggressively, forcing him into uncomfortable striking exchanges where Font's experience and volume overwhelm him. Font's 46% striking accuracy suggests he's capable of landing these counters if given opportunities, and the reach advantage means he sees Rosas' level changes coming.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Rosas should avoid extended striking exchanges in open space and instead use feints, pressure steps, and low-risk strikes to corral Font toward the cage. Once Font's back is near the fence, Rosas can initiate his wrestling game with body locks, collar ties, and reactive shots when Font tries to circle out. The fence eliminates Font's best defensive tool—footwork—and creates the wrestling platform Rosas needs. By keeping Font uncomfortable and preventing him from establishing his jab rhythm, Rosas forces the veteran into reactive mode where takedown entries become higher percentage. This gameplan leverages Rosas' youth and energy advantage while minimizing exposure to Font's counters and volume striking.
Once Rosas secures takedowns, he should prioritize maintaining top position and hunting back exposure over attempting ground-and-pound finishes. Font's get-up attempts will create scrambles where Rosas can transition to the back—his most dangerous finishing position. By staying patient, accumulating control time, and threatening submissions from dominant positions, Rosas builds round-winning minutes while Font burns energy trying to escape. Even if Font gets back to his feet, the energy expenditure from defending grappling creates a compounding effect where Rosas' wrestling becomes more dominant in later rounds. This patient, position-first approach maximizes Rosas' advantage while minimizing Font's ability to land fight-changing strikes.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Font's range control and movement, but gradually shifting toward Rosas' pressure as the fight progresses. Font's 71.5-inch reach and boxing fundamentals give him significant advantages in the early rounds when he can maintain distance and utilize his jab, straight rights, and footwork effectively. However, Rosas' relentless pressure and chain-wrestling sequences gradually compress the available space, forcing Font into increasingly uncomfortable positions. The young grappler's ability to cut off angles and force exchanges at the fence transforms the cage from Font's ally into Rosas' weapon, creating a progressive advantage that compounds over three rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: wrestling activity and striking volume. Rosas' 4.01 TD15 vs Font's 0.76 represents a 5.3x differential that fundamentally alters fight control and scoring dynamics. While Font's striking moments (5.43 SLpM, 46% accuracy) create impressive volume, Rosas' takedown volume and submission threat (1.1 Sub/15min) mean he can neutralize Font's striking advantage through consistent grappling control. The veteran's 42% takedown defense combined with Rosas' relentless wrestling pressure creates uncomfortable exchanges where Font's high-volume approach becomes less effective once grounded. These differentials create a scoring framework where Rosas' control time and submission threats consistently outweigh Font's striking output in judges' eyes when grappling exchanges occur.
⚖️Key Fight Dynamics
This matchup hinges on three critical battle spaces: Font's takedown defense (42%) vs Rosas' takedown volume (4.01/15min), Font's striking output (5.43 SLpM) vs Rosas' ability to close distance and initiate grappling, and the age/athleticism gap (38 vs 21). Font's low takedown defense percentage against a relentless chain-wrestler creates the most exploitable vulnerability in the fight. Rosas' youth, energy, and submission threat (1.1/15min) provide multiple paths to victory, while Font must maintain perfect distance control for 15 minutes—a task that becomes exponentially harder as rounds progress and Rosas' pressure accumulates. The large cage helps Font's footwork, but also gives Rosas more space to close without being cornered prematurely.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Raul Rosas Jr. by Submission (30% probability), capitalizing on his grappling dominance and Font's weak takedown defense to secure back takes and rear-naked chokes. Rosas' decision path (24%) becomes viable through consistent control time and position dominance across multiple rounds. Font's decision lane (24%) requires him to maintain distance perfectly and win striking minutes, but becomes increasingly difficult as Rosas' wrestling pressure mounts. Font's KO/TKO path (11%) exists if he can time counters on Rosas' entries or accumulate enough volume to discourage further wrestling attempts. Rosas' striking finish (10%) is the least likely but possible if ground-and-pound or accumulated damage creates openings. The stylistic clash strongly favors Rosas' grappling over Font's striking volume.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
GOOD VALUE
SLIGHT VALUE
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Rob Font
Primary path via fence control and rides
Attritional GNP and accumulative pressure
Back-takes off rides create RNC chances
💥Outcome Distribution - Raul Rosas Jr.
Best lane via intercepts and counters
Requires extended range control in big cage
Low historical submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Raul Rosas Jr.
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest takedown success rate when Font's legs are fresh.
- • Fence pressure: Force Font to the cage, eliminate footwork advantage.
- • Chain attempts: Multiple shots wear down Font's defense; persistence pays.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Rob Font
- • Jab-first approach: Maintain distance, score clean minutes without taking damage.
- • Immediate stand-ups: Don't accept positions; scramble back to feet urgently.
- • Early rounds: Build striking volume before Rosas' pressure mounts.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via wrestling volume and Font's takedown defense vulnerability
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive takedown volume edge (4.01 vs 0.76 TD15)
- • Font's weak takedown defense (42%) creates exploitable vulnerability
- • Submission threat (1.1 Sub/15min) adds fight-ending layer
- • Youth and athleticism advantage (21 vs 38 years old)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Font's counter-striking on takedown entries
- • Large cage gives Font more space to circle and reset
- • Font's high-volume striking (5.43 SLpM) if fight stays upright
🏁Executive Summary
Raul Rosas Jr.'s relentless wrestling pressure should steadily compress the 30-foot octagon space and bank control minutes through chain-takedown sequences, while Rob Font's best equity centers on maintaining distance and utilizing his high-volume striking before the young grappler's pressure takes hold. The statistical differentials heavily favor Rosas: his 4.01 TD15 vs Font's 0.76 creates a 5.3x takedown volume advantage, while Font's 42% takedown defense represents a critical vulnerability that compounds over three rounds. Rosas' 9:20 average fight duration with 72.7% finish rate demonstrates exceptional finishing ability, while Font's 13:03 duration suggests he can go the distance but struggles when taken down repeatedly. The young grappler's ability to force grappling exchanges while threatening submissions creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially when control time accumulates and submission threats materialize.
Prediction: Rosas Jr. by Submission most likely (30% probability) through consistent takedown pressure and back-take opportunities; Font's upset lane is Decision (24%) via maintaining distance and out-landing Rosas significantly if takedowns are denied. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Font can capitalize on his striking volume advantage before Rosas' wrestling pressure and submission threats become decisive factors.