Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2
Saturday, March 7, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Sumudaerji
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Jesus Aguilar
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Sumudaerji
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Kevin Borjas | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-04-12 | Mitch Raposo | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-19 | Charles Johnson | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-09 | Tim Elliott | L | Submission - Arm Triangle (R1, 4:02) |
| 2022-07-16 | Matt Schnell | L | Submission - Triangle Choke (R2, 4:24) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jesus Aguilar
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Luis Gurule | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-15 | Rafael Estevam | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-17 | Stewart Nicoll | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 2:39) |
| 2024-02-24 | Mateus Mendonça | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-08 | Shannon Ross | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 0:17) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (70.0 vs 40.0) and Grappling Composite (45.0 vs 75.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Sumudaerji Key Advantages
Sumudaerji's 4.40 SLpM vs Aguilar's 1.73 represents a 2.5x striking output differential that fundamentally shifts scoring dynamics when fights remain standing. The Chinese striker's ability to maintain high volume while working behind straight shots and long kicks creates minute-winning cycles that accumulate significant strike differentials. His 51% accuracy combined with high output ensures clean shots land consistently, while Aguilar's 1.73 SLpM output means he simply cannot match the pace in extended striking exchanges. In a 30-foot cage, Sumudaerji's volume advantage becomes even more pronounced as he gets more clean resets and opportunities to establish rhythm without constant takedown pressure.
Sumudaerji's 72-inch reach advantage (vs Aguilar's 62.5") combined with his 5'8" height creates significant striking opportunities at range. His arsenal includes long straight shots, calf kicks, and teeps that can deter takedown attempts while scoring points consistently. The Chinese striker's ability to maintain distance and work behind his jab creates a fundamental advantage—Aguilar must cross more space to even start his grappling game, exposing himself to intercept strikes and counter opportunities. In the 30-foot cage, Sumudaerji can maintain this preferred distance longer, forcing Aguilar to commit to longer entries that increase takedown attempt predictability and reduce success rates.
Sumudaerji's 68% takedown defense represents a critical gatekeeper in this matchup—if he can consistently stuff Aguilar's 1.83 TD15 attempts, the fight fundamentally tilts in his favor. The Chinese striker's ability to maintain underhooks, sprawl effectively, and create separation after defended shots prevents Aguilar from establishing the extended grappling sequences he needs to win. While Aguilar's 35% takedown accuracy suggests he can land some attempts, Sumudaerji's defensive rate means he'll likely need multiple attempts per round to secure meaningful control time. This defensive efficiency compounds over three rounds—Sumudaerji maintains his striking rhythm without accumulating ground control time, while Aguilar expends energy on failed takedown attempts that leave him vulnerable to counters and further behind on the scorecards.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Aguilar can force consistent grappling exchanges early, Sumudaerji's historical submission losses (Elliott arm triangle, Schnell triangle) become directly relevant. The Mexican grappler's 1.83 SubPer15 combined with his 58% career submission rate represents a real threat once fights hit the mat. Sumudaerji's 68% takedown defense suggests he can stuff many attempts, but Aguilar only needs one or two clean sequences to flip the fight. The Chinese striker's predictable defensive patterns when grounded—particularly his tendency to give up his back or expose his neck in scrambles—could be exploited if Aguilar maintains composure and doesn't rush submission attempts.
If Aguilar can consistently force Sumudaerji against the fence and establish clinch control, the fight dynamics shift significantly. The Mexican grappler's ability to chain takedown attempts from the clinch and maintain pressure prevents Sumudaerji from establishing his preferred striking distance. While Sumudaerji's 68% takedown defense suggests he can defend many attempts, the constant pressure and repeated shots can drain his energy and create openings for successful takedowns. Aguilar's ability to maintain control time in these positions could sway judges, particularly if he can accumulate enough ground control to offset Sumudaerji's striking volume in other rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Sumudaerji should utilize his 72-inch reach and 4.40 SLpM output to maintain distance and rack up significant strike differentials. His 51% striking accuracy suggests he can land clean shots consistently while keeping Aguilar at bay with long straight punches and calf kicks. The Chinese striker's ability to work behind his jab and reset after exchanges prevents Aguilar from establishing the close-range entries he needs. By maintaining high output and forcing Aguilar to cover more ground for takedown attempts, Sumudaerji can create intercept opportunities and accumulate scoring advantages that judges consistently reward.
When Aguilar does commit to takedown attempts, Sumudaerji's priority should be maintaining underhooks, sprawling effectively, and creating immediate separation to reset at range. His 68% takedown defense suggests he can stuff most attempts, but the key is preventing Aguilar from chaining multiple shots or establishing extended clinch control. The Chinese striker's ability to break grips, create angles, and reset quickly prevents Aguilar from accumulating the control time he needs to win rounds. By staying off the fence and maintaining active defense, Sumudaerji can force Aguilar into increasingly desperate entries that expose him to counter strikes and further reduce takedown success rates.
🚀 Jesus Aguilar Key Advantages
Aguilar's 1.83 submissions per 15 minutes combined with his 58% career submission rate represents a real finishing threat that aligns perfectly with Sumudaerji's historical weaknesses. The Mexican grappler's ability to hunt for front headlock positions, triangles, and guillotines creates fight-ending opportunities once fights hit the mat. His 7 career submissions demonstrate consistent finishing ability, and Sumudaerji's past losses to Elliott (arm triangle) and Schnell (triangle) suggest he's vulnerable to exactly the types of submissions Aguilar excels at. If Aguilar can secure even one clean takedown and establish top position or a front headlock, the submission threat becomes immediate and fight-altering.
Aguilar's 1.83 takedowns per 15 minutes represents meaningful grappling activity that creates consistent pressure on Sumudaerji to defend. While his 35% takedown accuracy suggests he'll need multiple attempts per round, his persistence and ability to chain shots creates opportunities for successful takedowns over time. The Mexican grappler's approach emphasizes closing distance, establishing clinch control, and forcing takedown attempts that either succeed or create scrambles where he can hunt for submissions. Even when takedowns are defended, the constant pressure prevents Sumudaerji from settling into his preferred striking rhythm and forces him to expend energy on defensive wrestling that compounds over three rounds.
Aguilar's 1.10 strikes absorbed per minute represents one of the lowest absorption rates in the division, suggesting he rarely hangs out in open space where he can be overwhelmed by volume. His low SApM often reflects his grappling-first approach— he's either closing distance for takedowns, in clinch exchanges, or on the ground, all positions where striking volume drops significantly. This defensive efficiency means he's not accumulating damage while working for takedowns, allowing him to maintain energy and focus throughout the fight. While Sumudaerji's 4.40 SLpM output can create volume advantages, Aguilar's ability to minimize clean shots landed through his movement and grappling pressure creates a damage economy that keeps him competitive even when behind on strike counts.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Aguilar cannot consistently force grappling exchanges and the fight remains at extended range, Sumudaerji's 4.40 SLpM volume advantage becomes decisive. The Chinese striker's 72-inch reach allows him to maintain distance while racking up significant strike differentials, and Aguilar's 1.73 SLpM output simply cannot match the pace. In the 30-foot cage, Sumudaerji gets more clean resets after breakups and defended shots, making it increasingly difficult for Aguilar to close distance. The Mexican grappler's low striking volume means he'll lose minutes by significant margins if he can't establish consistent takedown pressure, creating a scoring framework where judges consistently favor Sumudaerji's activity and output.
If Sumudaerji's 68% takedown defense holds up consistently throughout the fight, Aguilar's path to victory becomes extremely narrow. The Mexican grappler's 35% takedown accuracy means he'll need multiple attempts per round to secure meaningful control time, and if Sumudaerji can stuff most attempts and create immediate separation, Aguilar expends significant energy without accumulating scoring advantages. Without consistent takedown success, Aguilar cannot establish the extended grappling sequences he needs to hunt for submissions or bank control time, leaving him reliant on a striking game where he's significantly outmatched in both volume and range.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Aguilar's optimal strategy involves closing distance quickly and establishing clinch control to set up takedown attempts. His approach should emphasize cutting off angles, using level changes to enter, and maintaining underhooks once in the clinch. The Mexican grappler's ability to chain multiple takedown attempts from the clinch creates opportunities for successful shots even if initial attempts are defended. By forcing Sumudaerji against the fence and maintaining pressure, Aguilar can prevent the Chinese striker from establishing his preferred range and create the extended grappling sequences he needs to hunt for submissions or accumulate control time.
Once Aguilar secures takedowns, his priority should be immediately hunting for submissions rather than accumulating control time. His 1.83 SubPer15 and 58% career submission rate suggest he's most dangerous when actively pursuing finishes, particularly front headlock positions, triangles, and guillotines. Sumudaerji's historical submission losses (Elliott arm triangle, Schnell triangle) indicate vulnerability to exactly these types of attacks. The Mexican grappler should prioritize submission attempts over positional control, as Sumudaerji's 68% takedown defense means Aguilar may not get many opportunities, making each successful takedown a critical moment to finish the fight.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—heavily favoring Sumudaerji's range weapons and volume striking throughout the fight. Sumudaerji's 72-inch reach and 5'8" height give him significant advantages as he can maintain distance and utilize his straight shots, long kicks, and teeps effectively. The large cage provides ample space for Sumudaerji to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred striking distance, making it increasingly difficult for Aguilar to close distance and force grappling exchanges. The Chinese striker's ability to use the full octagon space and create separation after defended takedowns transforms the cage into his weapon, allowing him to rack up significant strike differentials while preventing Aguilar from establishing the extended grappling sequences he needs to win.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: striking volume and takedown defense. Sumudaerji's 4.40 SLpM vs Aguilar's 1.73 represents a 2.5x differential that fundamentally alters scoring dynamics when fights remain standing. While Aguilar's grappling moments (1.83 TD15, 1.83 SubPer15) create real finishing threats, Sumudaerji's takedown defense (68% TDDef) suggests he can stuff most attempts and maintain his preferred range. The Chinese striker's 51% accuracy combined with high output ensures clean shots land consistently, while Aguilar's 1.73 SLpM output means he cannot match the pace in extended striking exchanges. These differentials create a scoring framework where Sumudaerji's volume and range management consistently outweigh Aguilar's grappling attempts in judges' eyes, unless Aguilar can secure meaningful control time or finish via submission.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: first-layer takedown defense vs takedown persistence, range management vs distance closing, and submission threat vs defensive grappling. Sumudaerji's 68% takedown defense suggests he can stuff most initial attempts, but Aguilar's 1.83 TD15 activity means he'll have multiple opportunities per round. The Chinese striker's range weapons (72-inch reach, long straight shots) represent his most effective tools against Aguilar's entries, but the Mexican grappler's ability to chain multiple attempts and maintain pressure can break through over time. As the fight progresses, Sumudaerji's superior volume (4.40 SLpM) becomes increasingly decisive, especially when combined with his ability to maintain distance and prevent Aguilar from establishing extended grappling sequences. However, Aguilar only needs one or two successful takedowns to create submission opportunities that could flip the fight instantly.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Sumudaerji by Decision (45% probability), achieved through consistent volume striking, range management, and superior takedown defense over three rounds. Sumudaerji's KO/TKO path (22%) becomes viable if Aguilar is forced into desperate takedown entries that expose him to intercept strikes, particularly as the fight progresses and his takedown attempts become more predictable. Aguilar's upset lane centers on submission (21%) via front headlock positions, triangles, or guillotines if he can secure even one or two clean takedowns and establish extended grappling sequences. The Mexican grappler's decision path (9%) requires accumulating enough takedown control time to offset Sumudaerji's striking volume—a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely as Sumudaerji's takedown defense holds up and his volume advantage compounds over three rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 45% | Fair: +122
GOOD VALUE
Model: 21% | Fair: +376
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 57% | Fair: -133
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights submission risk – Underprices Sumudaerji's takedown defense and range management.
- • Undervalues striking volume edge – 4.40 vs 1.73 SLpM differential creates significant scoring advantages.
- • Large cage favors striker – More space extends Sumudaerji's range advantage and makes Aguilar's entries harder.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Sumudaerji
Primary path via volume and range management
Intercept strikes as Aguilar commits to entries
Rare path, mostly chaos-scramble scenarios
💥Outcome Distribution - Jesus Aguilar
Best win condition via grounded grappling
Requires enough takedowns/control to bank rounds
Low likelihood given career + style
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Jesus Aguilar
- • First 5 minutes: Highest submission equity if takedowns land early.
- • Fence pressure: Force Sumudaerji against cage to limit movement.
- • Chain attempts: Multiple shots per round increase success probability.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Sumudaerji
- • Volume accumulation: 4.40 SLpM compounds strike differentials over rounds.
- • Range management: Maintain distance and prevent grappling entries.
- • Takedown defense: 68% TDDef prevents Aguilar from establishing control.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via volume and range, but submission risk remains
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant striking volume edge (4.40 vs 1.73 SLpM)
- • Massive reach advantage (+9.5") creates range control
- • Strong takedown defense (68%) prevents grappling
- • Large cage favors striker's movement and resets
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Submission risk if takedowns land (historical losses)
- • Aguilar's persistence can break through TD defense
- • One clean grappling sequence can flip the fight
🏁Executive Summary
Sumudaerji's systematic approach to range management should effectively utilize the 30-foot octagon space and bank safe minutes through high-volume striking, while Jesus Aguilar's best equity centers on early takedown success and submission hunting before the Chinese striker's volume takes hold. The statistical differentials heavily favor Sumudaerji: his 4.40 SLpM vs Aguilar's 1.73 creates a 2.5x striking volume advantage, while his 72-inch reach vs Aguilar's 62.5" represents a massive range advantage that compounds over three rounds. Sumudaerji's 68% takedown defense suggests he can stuff most attempts, while Aguilar's 35% takedown accuracy means he'll need multiple attempts per round to secure meaningful control time. The Chinese striker's ability to maintain distance and rack up significant strike differentials creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially when combined with his ability to prevent Aguilar from establishing extended grappling sequences.
Prediction: Sumudaerji by Decision most likely (45% probability) through consistent volume striking and range management; Aguilar's upset lane is submission (21%) via front headlock positions, triangles, or guillotines if he can secure even one or two clean takedowns. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Aguilar can force consistent grappling exchanges before Sumudaerji's volume advantage and takedown defense become decisive factors over three rounds.