Paulo Costa vs Brunno Ferreira
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2
Saturday, March 7, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Paulo Costa
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Brunno Ferreira
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Paulo Costa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Roman Kopylov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-01 | Sean Strickland | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Robert Whittaker | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-08-20 | Luke Rockhold | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-10-23 | Marvin Vettori | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Brunno Ferreira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Marvin Vettori | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-07-19 | Jackson McVey | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 3:35) |
| 2025-03-08 | Armen Petrosyan | W | Submission - Armbar (R2, 4:27) |
| 2024-10-26 | Abus Magomedov | L | Submission - Arm Triangle (R3, 3:14) |
| 2024-06-08 | Dustin Stoltzfus | W | TKO - Elbow (R1, 4:51) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (72.0 vs 58.0) and Grappling Composite (45.0 vs 62.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
Paulo CostaBrunno Ferreira🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Paulo Costa Key Advantages
Costa's 6.26 SLpM vs Ferreira's 3.85 represents a 62.6% volume differential that creates significant scoring advantages. Combined with his 58% striking accuracy (vs Ferreira's 50%), Costa can rack up substantial strike differentials that judges consistently reward. The Brazilian's ability to maintain this high output while mixing body work, leg kicks, and head strikes creates a multi-layered attack that overwhelms opponents over time. While Ferreira's explosive power presents early danger, Costa's volume control becomes increasingly decisive as rounds progress, especially in a three-round fight where activity differentials compound quickly.
Costa's 80% takedown defense creates a fundamental barrier against Ferreira's grappling intentions. While Ferreira brings more grappling activity (1.29 TD15 vs 0.32), his 23% takedown accuracy against Costa's elite defense suggests significant difficulty completing takedowns. This forces Ferreira to win the fight in striking exchanges where Costa's volume advantage becomes decisive. The Brazilian's ability to stuff takedowns and maintain striking range prevents Ferreira from accessing his most dangerous weapons—scrambles and opportunistic submissions—while keeping the fight in Costa's preferred domain where his 6.26 SLpM output can accumulate rounds.
Costa's 12:46 average fight duration demonstrates exceptional cardiovascular conditioning and ability to maintain pace over extended periods. This contrasts sharply with Ferreira's 6:27 average duration, which suggests he typically finishes fights early or gets finished early. Costa's ability to sustain 6.26 SLpM output over three rounds creates a progressive advantage that compounds as Ferreira's explosive power diminishes. The Brazilian's body work and accumulative damage approach break down opponents over time, making his cardio advantage particularly decisive in Round 3 where Ferreira's early finish equity has passed and Costa's volume control becomes the dominant factor.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Ferreira's explosive power and early finish ability represent Costa's primary risk factor. The Brazilian's 6.20 SApM absorption rate means he absorbs significant damage in exchanges, creating variance where a single clean shot from Ferreira could end the fight. Ferreira's 93.3% finish rate with 73% of wins in Round 1 demonstrates his ability to capitalize on early opportunities. If Costa becomes overconfident in his volume advantage and engages in extended exchanges without defensive awareness, Ferreira's power shots and submission threats create fight-ending scenarios that don't require winning the statistical battle.
If Costa fails to maintain striking range and the fight enters clinch or scramble situations, Ferreira's 0.8 SubPer15 and opportunistic submission game create significant danger. While Costa's 80% takedown defense suggests he can stuff initial attempts, Ferreira's ability to capitalize on transitions and create submission opportunities in scrambles represents a path to victory that bypasses Costa's volume advantage. The Brazilian's tendency to absorb damage (6.20 SApM) could create moments of disorientation where Ferreira can secure clinch positions and threaten submissions, particularly armbars and arm-triangles that he's shown proficiency with in recent fights.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Costa should utilize intelligent pressure that maintains striking range while avoiding extended exchanges that play into Ferreira's power. His jab to the chest/face, low kicks, and hooks to the liver create accumulative damage that breaks down explosive opponents over time. Costa's 58% striking accuracy ensures these setup strikes land consistently, while his 6.26 SLpM output creates significant volume differentials. By mixing body work with head strikes and varying his attack angles, Costa can overwhelm Ferreira's defensive shell while minimizing risk of clean counters. The key is maintaining activity without over-committing to combinations that expose him to Ferreira's explosive responses.
When Ferreira enters clinch or body-lock situations, Costa's priority should be frames, defensive positioning, and clean exits that prevent submission opportunities. Costa's 80% takedown defense suggests he can stuff initial attempts, but Ferreira's ability to capitalize on transitions means Costa must avoid giving up his back or neck in scrambles. By maintaining frames, using underhooks to control distance, and exiting cleanly without exposing submission opportunities, Costa can keep the fight in his preferred striking range where his volume advantage becomes decisive. This approach minimizes risk while maximizing scoring opportunities through consistent activity.
🚀 Brunno Ferreira Key Advantages
Ferreira's 93.3% finish rate with 73% of wins in Round 1 demonstrates exceptional early fight-ending ability. His combination of explosive power (9 KO/TKO wins) and opportunistic submissions (5 submission wins) creates a dual threat that doesn't require winning the statistical battle. Ferreira's ability to capitalize on moments of disorientation or defensive lapses means a single clean shot or scramble opportunity can end the fight instantly. This early finish equity becomes particularly dangerous against Costa, who absorbs significant damage (6.20 SApM) and could be vulnerable to explosive counters if he becomes overconfident in his volume advantage.
Ferreira's 51% striking defense combined with his lower absorption rate (3.99 SApM vs Costa's 6.20) creates a defensive profile that minimizes damage accumulation. While Costa's volume advantage is significant, Ferreira's ability to avoid clean shots and minimize damage in exchanges means he can survive early rounds and capitalize on opportunities when they present themselves. This defensive efficiency becomes particularly important in a three-round fight where avoiding accumulative damage allows Ferreira to maintain his explosive power throughout the contest, creating opportunities for fight-ending moments even in later rounds.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Ferreira's 3.85 SLpM output vs Costa's 6.26 creates a 62.6% volume differential that becomes increasingly problematic as rounds progress. If Ferreira fails to generate early fight-ending moments, Costa's consistent activity and accumulative damage create significant scoring advantages that judges consistently reward. Ferreira's lower output means he must rely on high-impact moments rather than consistent activity, creating a scenario where he can lose rounds "silently" through volume deficits even if he lands the harder shots. This becomes particularly dangerous in a three-round fight where activity differentials compound quickly and Ferreira's early finish equity diminishes with each passing minute.
Ferreira's 23% takedown accuracy against Costa's 80% takedown defense creates a mathematical disadvantage that limits his grappling path to victory. While Ferreira brings more grappling activity (1.29 TD15 vs 0.32), his low completion rate against elite defense suggests significant difficulty securing takedowns. This forces Ferreira to win the fight in striking exchanges where Costa's volume advantage becomes decisive. If Ferreira becomes frustrated with failed takedown attempts and abandons his grappling game, he's left in a pure striking battle where Costa's 6.26 SLpM output and superior cardio create progressive advantages that compound over three rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Ferreira's optimal strategy involves front-loading damage during the first 7 minutes when his explosive power is at its peak and Costa hasn't yet established his volume rhythm. The Brazilian should look to capitalize on his early energy advantage by landing high-impact shots and creating fight-ending opportunities before Costa's accumulative approach takes hold. Ferreira's 93.3% finish rate demonstrates his ability to capitalize on early opportunities, and his explosive power becomes most dangerous when he can land clean shots without Costa's volume control draining his energy. By establishing early momentum and potentially scoring knockdowns or significant damage, Ferreira can force Costa to fight from behind and potentially alter the Brazilian's gameplan.
When clinch or scramble situations present themselves, Ferreira should capitalize on transition opportunities to create submission chances. His 0.8 SubPer15 and opportunistic submission game (5 career submissions) represent his most dangerous weapons against Costa's volume-based approach. While Costa's 80% takedown defense suggests difficulty completing clean takedowns, Ferreira's ability to capitalize on transitions and create submission opportunities in scrambles represents a path to victory that bypasses Costa's striking advantage. By threatening level changes and creating clinch situations, Ferreira can access his submission game while preventing Costa from establishing his preferred striking rhythm.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Ferreira's explosive power and early finish ability, but gradually shifting toward Costa's volume control as the fight progresses. Ferreira's explosive style and 93.3% finish rate give him significant advantages in the early rounds when he can capitalize on early opportunities and create fight-ending moments. However, Costa's relentless volume (6.26 SLpM) and accumulative approach gradually wear down explosive opponents, forcing Ferreira into increasingly difficult positions. The Brazilian's ability to maintain consistent activity and body work transforms the cage from Ferreira's early finish domain into Costa's volume-controlled battlefield, creating a progressive advantage that compounds over three rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: volume control and finish ability. Costa's 6.26 SLpM vs Ferreira's 3.85 represents a 62.6% differential that creates significant scoring advantages through consistent activity. While Ferreira's explosive power (93.3% finish rate) creates early fight-ending opportunities, Costa's volume advantage (6.26 SLpM, 58% accuracy) means he can rack up substantial strike differentials that judges consistently reward. Costa's 80% takedown defense combined with his volume threat forces Ferreira into uncomfortable exchanges where his explosive approach becomes less effective. These differentials create a scoring framework where Costa's activity and accumulative damage consistently outweigh Ferreira's power shots in judges' eyes, especially as rounds progress.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: early explosive power vs volume control, takedown defense vs submission opportunities, and late-round cardio durability. Ferreira's 93.3% finish rate suggests he can capitalize on early opportunities, but Costa's volume advantage (6.26 SLpM) creates progressive scoring differentials that compound over time. Ferreira's explosive power and submission threats represent his most dangerous tools against Costa's volume-based approach, but Costa's ability to maintain consistent activity and avoid extended exchanges makes these counters less predictable. As the fight progresses, Costa's superior cardio (12:46 avg duration vs 6:27) becomes increasingly decisive, especially when combined with his volume control that forces Ferreira to expend energy defending strikes and avoiding accumulative damage.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Paulo Costa by Decision (40% probability), achieved through consistent volume control, activity accumulation, and superior cardio over three rounds. Costa's KO/TKO path (27%) becomes viable if his accumulative damage and body work break down Ferreira over time, particularly in later rounds when Ferreira's explosive power begins to fade. Ferreira's upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (17%) via explosive power shots or submission (13%) via scramble opportunities as Costa commits to exchanges. The Brazilian's decision path (3%) requires maintaining volume control throughout three rounds—a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely as Costa's activity escalates and Ferreira's early finish equity diminishes.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 40% | Fair: +150
GOOD VALUE
Model: 17% | Fair: +488
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 45% | Fair: +122
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early finish volatility – Underprices Costa's volume control and decision path.
- • Undervalues volume advantage – Costa's 6.26 SLpM vs 3.85 creates significant scoring differentials.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps Ferreira early, but Costa's pressure and cardio erode it over three rounds.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Paulo Costa
Primary path via volume control and activity
Accumulative damage and body work
Low historical submission profile
💥Outcome Distribution - Brunno Ferreira
Best lane via explosive early power
Scramble opportunities and opportunistic subs
Requires volume control over three rounds
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Brunno Ferreira
- • First 7 minutes: Highest explosive KO and submission equity.
- • Scramble opportunities: Clinch entries create submission chances.
- • Power shots: High-impact strikes before Costa's volume takes over.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Paulo Costa
- • Volume control: 6.26 SLpM output banks rounds through activity.
- • Body work: Accumulative damage breaks down explosive opponent.
- • Late rounds: Cardio advantage becomes decisive in R3.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via volume control and cardio, but Ferreira's finish ability creates variance
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant volume advantage (6.26 vs 3.85 SLpM)
- • Superior cardio and fight duration (12:46 vs 6:27)
- • Elite takedown defense (80%) limits Ferreira's grappling path
- • Proven decision path with accumulative damage approach
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Ferreira's explosive power and early finish ability
- • High absorption rate (6.20 SApM) creates variance
- • Scramble submission threats in clinch situations
🏁Executive Summary
Paulo Costa's systematic approach to volume control should steadily accumulate rounds through consistent activity and accumulative damage, while Brunno Ferreira's best equity centers on early explosive power and opportunistic submissions before Costa's volume takes hold. The statistical differentials heavily favor Costa: his 6.26 SLpM vs Ferreira's 3.85 creates a 62.6% volume advantage, while his 80% takedown defense vs Ferreira's 23% takedown accuracy represents superior location control that compounds over three rounds. Costa's 12:46 average fight duration demonstrates exceptional cardio management, while Ferreira's 6:27 duration suggests he typically finishes fights early or gets finished early. Costa's ability to maintain volume while minimizing early finish risk creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially in Round 3 where activity differentials become visually apparent.
Prediction: Costa by Decision most likely (40% probability) through consistent volume control and activity accumulation; Ferreira's upset lane is early KO/TKO (17%) via explosive power shots or submission (13%) via scramble opportunities as Costa commits to exchanges. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Ferreira can capitalize on his early finish equity before Costa's volume advantage and superior cardio become decisive factors.