Renato Moicano vs Brian Ortega
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2
Saturday, March 7, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Renato Moicano
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Brian Ortega
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Renato Moicano
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Beneil Dariush | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-18 | Islam Makhachev | L | Submission - D'arce Choke (R1, 4:05) |
| 2024-09-28 | Benoit Saint-Denis | W | TKO - Doctor Stoppage (R2, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Jalin Turner | W | TKO - Ground and Pound (R2, 4:11) |
| 2024-02-03 | Drew Dober | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Brian Ortega
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Aljamain Sterling | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-14 | Diego Lopes | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-24 | Yair Rodríguez | W | Submission - Arm Triangle (R3, 0:58) |
| 2022-07-16 | Yair Rodríguez | L | TKO - Injury (R1, 4:11) |
| 2021-09-25 | Alexander Volkanovski | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62.9 vs 34.6) and Grappling Composite (43.4 vs 31.7). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Renato Moicano Key Advantages
Moicano's 49% striking accuracy vs Ortega's 38% represents a significant precision advantage that compounds over three rounds. The Brazilian's ability to land clean shots while maintaining defensive positioning creates consistent scoring opportunities. His technical striking approach—jabs, low kicks, and counter-punches—allows him to control distance and accumulate points without taking unnecessary risks. This accuracy differential means Moicano lands more significant strikes per exchange, creating visible damage that judges consistently reward. In a three-round fight, this precision advantage becomes decisive as Ortega's defensive gaps become more apparent.
The 3.02 strikes absorbed per minute differential (3.57 vs 6.59) creates a damage economy that heavily favors Moicano in scoring optics. While Ortega's 4.08 SLpM output can create volume, Moicano's 60% striking defense and low absorption rate mean significantly fewer clean shots land. This defensive efficiency compounds over three rounds—Moicano maintains his pace without accumulating damage, while Ortega's porous defense (50% StrDef) leaves him vulnerable to counters and accumulative damage. The Brazilian's ability to minimize damage while maximizing output creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially as visible damage becomes apparent in later rounds.
Moicano's 53.2 Technical Score vs Ortega's 33.1 reflects superior overall technical ability across striking and grappling metrics. His 62.9 Striking Composite vs Ortega's 34.6 demonstrates significantly better striking fundamentals, while his 43.4 Grappling Composite vs Ortega's 31.7 shows more complete grappling skills despite Ortega's elite submission threat. This technical gap manifests in cleaner technique, better defensive discipline, and more efficient energy management. Moicano's ability to execute at a higher technical level consistently creates advantages that compound over three rounds, making it difficult for Ortega to find openings without exposing himself to counters.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Ortega's elite submission threat (1.07 SubPer15) represents his most dangerous weapon against Moicano's takedown attempts. The Californian's ability to attack the neck in transitions— guillotines, arm triangles, and rear-naked chokes—can end the fight in a single scramble. Historical data shows Ortega's success against strikers who commit to takedowns without proper defensive discipline. His ability to capitalize on Moicano's level changes or ground exchanges creates fight-ending opportunities. Moicano's predictable entry patterns could be exploited if Ortega maintains composure and times his submission attacks correctly.
If Moicano fails to maintain defensive discipline and engages in grappling exchanges, Ortega's transition skills become decisive. The 30-foot cage provides space for scrambles where Ortega excels, creating opportunities for back takes and submission attempts. His ability to capitalize on takedown attempts or clinch exchanges can quickly shift momentum. Ortega's 1.07 SubPer15 means he doesn't need extended control time to finish—a single well-timed transition can end the fight. Moicano's tendency to mix takedowns with striking could expose him to Ortega's submission threats if he becomes overconfident or predictable in his entries.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Moicano should utilize his 3-inch height and reach advantages to control distance with jabs, low kicks, and straight punches. His 49% striking accuracy allows him to land clean shots while maintaining defensive positioning. The Brazilian's ability to mix striking entries with defensive exits keeps Ortega guessing and prevents him from settling into rhythm. By varying his approach—sometimes pressuring forward, sometimes resetting to range—Moicano can exploit Ortega's defensive gaps (50% StrDef) while minimizing exposure to submission threats. This strategy maximizes scoring while minimizing risk.
When Moicano engages in grappling exchanges, his priority should be maintaining defensive discipline and avoiding neck exposure. His wrestling background emphasizes top control, wrist control, and positional awareness rather than aggressive submission attempts. This approach maximizes scoring while minimizing risk—Moicano can bank minutes through rides and positional control without exposing himself to Ortega's submission threats. The Brazilian's 63% takedown defense suggests he can avoid dangerous positions, making this strategy both effective and sustainable over three rounds.
🚀 Brian Ortega Key Advantages
Ortega's 1.07 submissions per 15 minutes represents one of the highest submission rates in the lightweight division, creating constant fight-ending threats in transitions. His ability to attack the neck—guillotines, arm triangles, and rear-naked chokes—can end fights in a single scramble. The Californian's submission threat doesn't require extended control time; he capitalizes on takedown attempts and clinch exchanges to create opportunities. This elite submission ability means Moicano must maintain perfect defensive discipline throughout, as a single mistake can completely change the fight's outcome despite statistical advantages.
Ortega's ability to capitalize on transitions and scrambles creates fight-ending opportunities even when losing rounds. His grappling skills shine in chaotic exchanges where he can quickly secure back takes or attack the neck. The Californian's 1.07 SubPer15 means he doesn't need to dominate for extended periods—a single well-timed transition can end the fight. This makes Ortega dangerous throughout, even when Moicano is controlling distance and winning rounds on the feet. The 30-foot cage provides space for scrambles where Ortega excels, creating opportunities that don't exist in smaller cages.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Moicano's superior striking accuracy (49% vs 38%) creates a significant challenge for Ortega—the Brazilian lands more clean shots per exchange while absorbing less damage. Ortega's 50% striking defense leaves him vulnerable to Moicano's technical striking, especially jabs and low kicks that control distance. The Californian's 6.59 SApM means he absorbs nearly double the damage Moicano does, creating visible damage accumulation over three rounds. This precision deficit becomes increasingly apparent as the fight progresses, making it difficult for Ortega to win rounds on the feet without finding submission opportunities.
Moicano's 3-inch height and reach advantages create significant challenges for Ortega in the 30-foot cage. The Brazilian can maintain preferred distance longer, using his longer limbs to control range and prevent Ortega from closing distance effectively. Ortega's compact frame (5'8") means he must cover more ground to engage, exposing him to counters and making it difficult to establish consistent pressure. The large cage amplifies this disadvantage, giving Moicano more space to reset and maintain striking distance. Without effective pressure, Ortega struggles to create the scrambles and transitions where his submission threat becomes most dangerous.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Ortega's optimal strategy involves creating pressure to force exchanges where his submission threat becomes decisive. His pressure should target Moicano's takedown attempts, creating scrambles and clinch exchanges where he can attack the neck. The Californian's ability to capitalize on transitions means he doesn't need to dominate extended periods—a single well-timed submission attempt can end the fight. When Moicano commits to takedowns or engages in grappling, Ortega should immediately threaten guillotines, arm triangles, or back takes. The key is forcing exchanges where his elite submission skills can overcome Moicano's technical advantages.
Ortega's best chance for victory lies in capitalizing on transition moments—takedown attempts, scrambles, and clinch exchanges—where his 1.07 SubPer15 becomes most dangerous. The Californian should look to create these opportunities by pressuring forward and forcing Moicano to engage in grappling exchanges. His elite submission skills mean he doesn't need to win rounds on the feet; a single well-timed submission can overcome statistical disadvantages. By maintaining pressure and forcing exchanges, Ortega can create the chaotic moments where his transition grappling and submission threat become fight-ending weapons.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Ortega's submission threat and transition grappling, but gradually shifting toward Moicano's precision striking and damage economy as the fight progresses. Ortega's elite submission skills (1.07 SubPer15) create constant fight-ending threats in transitions, especially when Moicano commits to takedown attempts. However, Moicano's superior striking accuracy (49% vs 38%) and damage economy (3.57 vs 6.59 SApM) gradually accumulate visible damage and scoring advantages. The Brazilian's ability to control distance with his 3-inch height and reach advantages transforms the 30-foot cage into his weapon, creating a progressive advantage that compounds over three rounds while minimizing Ortega's submission opportunities.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: striking precision and damage economy. Moicano's 49% striking accuracy vs Ortega's 38% represents an 11 percentage point differential that fundamentally alters scoring dynamics. While Ortega's submission threat (1.07 SubPer15) creates constant fight-ending danger, Moicano's damage economy (3.57 SApM vs 6.59) means he absorbs significantly less damage while maintaining offensive output. The Brazilian's 60% striking defense combined with his technical superiority forces Ortega into exchanges where his defensive gaps (50% StrDef) become exploitable. These differentials create a scoring framework where Moicano's precision and damage efficiency consistently outweigh Ortega's submission threat in judges' eyes, especially when Moicano maintains defensive discipline.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: distance control vs submission opportunities, striking precision vs defensive gaps, and anti-submission discipline vs transition grappling. Moicano's 3-inch height and reach advantages allow him to control distance and minimize grappling exchanges, but Ortega's elite submission skills (1.07 SubPer15) mean a single mistake can end the fight. The Brazilian's precision striking (49% accuracy) creates consistent scoring opportunities against Ortega's defensive gaps (50% StrDef), but Ortega's transition grappling can quickly shift momentum. As the fight progresses, Moicano's superior damage economy (3.57 vs 6.59 SApM) becomes increasingly decisive, especially when combined with his technical superiority that forces Ortega to take risks to create submission opportunities.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Renato Moicano by Decision (40% probability), achieved through consistent precision striking, damage accumulation, and superior technical execution over three rounds. Moicano's KO/TKO path (22%) becomes viable if his striking accumulates visible damage through clean shots and counters, particularly as Ortega's defensive gaps become more apparent. Ortega's upset lane centers on Submission (17%) via transition grappling and neck attacks when Moicano commits to takedown attempts or engages in scrambles. The Californian's decision path (10%) requires maintaining pressure and creating enough damage to overcome Moicano's precision advantage—a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely as Moicano's technical superiority compounds over three rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 34% | Fair: +194
GOOD VALUE
Model: 17% | Fair: +488
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 54% | Fair: +117
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights submission volatility – Underprices three-round striking control.
- • Undervalues damage economy – 3.57 vs 6.59 SApM differential drives scoring optics.
- • Striking accuracy gap – 49% vs 38% StrAcc creates consistent round-winning advantage.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Renato Moicano
Primary path via precision striking and defense
Ground and pound accumulation
Back takes and control create submission opportunities
💥Outcome Distribution - Brian Ortega
Primary path via transition grappling and neck attacks
Requires pressure and control throughout three rounds
Momentary power shots in transitions
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Brian Ortega
- • Early transitions: Submission threats in scrambles and clinch exchanges.
- • Neck attacks: Guillotines and arm triangles when Moicano shoots.
- • Pressure moments: Force exchanges where grappling becomes decisive.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Renato Moicano
- • Precision striking: 49% accuracy vs 38% creates consistent scoring.
- • Damage economy: 3.57 SApM vs 6.59 minimizes risk while maximizing output.
- • Defensive discipline: 60% StrDef prevents Ortega from finding rhythm.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via precision striking and damage economy, but submission threat remains
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant striking accuracy edge (49% vs 38% StrAcc)
- • Superior damage economy (3.57 vs 6.59 SApM)
- • Better defensive metrics (60% vs 50% StrDef)
- • Technical score advantage (53.2 vs 33.1)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Ortega's elite submission threat (1.07 SubPer15)
- • Transition grappling creates fight-ending opportunities
- • Single mistake can change outcome despite statistical edge
🏁Executive Summary
Renato Moicano's technical striking approach should control the 30-foot octagon space through precision and superior damage economy, while Brian Ortega's best equity centers on submission threats in transitions and grappling exchanges. The statistical differentials heavily favor Moicano: his 49% StrAcc vs Ortega's 38% creates a significant accuracy advantage, while his 3.57 SApM vs Ortega's 6.59 represents superior damage economy that compounds over three rounds. Moicano's 60% StrDef vs Ortega's 50% demonstrates better defensive discipline, while his 53.2 Technical Score vs Ortega's 33.1 reflects superior overall technical ability. However, Ortega's 1.07 SubPer15 represents an elite submission threat that can end the fight in a single transition, making this matchup more volatile than the statistical edge suggests.
Prediction: Moicano by Decision most likely (34% probability) through precision striking and superior damage economy; Moicano's KO/TKO path (12%) becomes viable if ground-and-pound accumulates damage, while his submission path (21%) exists through back takes and control. Ortega's upset lane centers on submission (17%) via transition grappling and neck attacks when Moicano commits to takedowns or scrambles. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Moicano can maintain defensive discipline and avoid Ortega's submission threats while capitalizing on his striking advantages.