Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira
Men's BMF Lightweight Title Bout • UFC 326
Saturday, March 7, 2026 • T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Max Holloway
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Charles Oliveira
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Max Holloway
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Dustin Poirier | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-26 | Ilia Topuria | L | TKO - Punch to Head (R3, 1:34) |
| 2024-04-13 | Justin Gaethje | W | TKO - Punch to Head (R5, 4:59) |
| 2023-08-26 | Chan Sung Jung | W | TKO - Right Hook (R3, 0:23) |
| 2023-04-15 | Arnold Allen | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Charles Oliveira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Mateusz Gamrot | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 2:48) |
| 2025-06-28 | Ilia Topuria | L | TKO - Ground Pound (R1, 4:10) |
| 2024-11-16 | Michael Chandler | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Arman Tsarukyan | L | Decision - Split (R3, 3:00) |
| 2023-06-10 | Beneil Dariush | W | TKO - Ground Pound (R1, 4:10) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (61.0 vs 51.0) and Grappling Composite (50.0 vs 58.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Max Holloway Key Advantages
Holloway's 7.16 significant strikes per minute compared to Oliveira's 3.41 represents a 110% volume advantage that fundamentally shapes fight dynamics. This massive output differential means Holloway can control the striking exchanges, force Oliveira to react rather than initiate, and accumulate damage over time. His volume-first approach historically overwhelms opponents who lack the cardio to match his pace, and Oliveira's shorter fight duration average (7:30 vs 16:06) suggests potential vulnerability in extended exchanges. Holloway's ability to maintain this pace deep into championship rounds—evidenced by his 12 career Round 5 wins—creates a compounding advantage where each round becomes progressively more difficult for Oliveira to match. The Hawaiian's jab-heavy attack, combined with body work and leg kicks, systematically breaks down opponents while maintaining defensive positioning that limits counter-striking opportunities.
Holloway's 83% takedown defense represents one of the best marks in UFC lightweight history, creating a massive barrier to Oliveira's primary submission game. While Oliveira attempts 2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes and leads all-time UFC submissions (22), he needs to get the fight to the ground to unlock his most dangerous weapons. Holloway's ability to stuff takedowns and quickly disengage from clinch positions means Oliveira may struggle to find grappling exchanges, forcing him to compete in Holloway's preferred striking realm. This defensive excellence isn't just statistical—it's been proven against elite wrestlers and grapplers throughout his career. Holloway's balance, hip awareness, and immediate sprawl-to-separation technique prevent opponents from establishing control time, which is crucial in a five-round fight where every second of ground control matters. His ability to defend takedowns while maintaining striking output creates a catch-22 for Oliveira: commit fully to takedowns and risk eating counters, or stay standing and get outworked by volume.
With 12 of his 27 career wins coming in Round 5, Holloway demonstrates unparalleled late-fight finishing ability. His 16:06 average fight duration shows he's accustomed to five-round wars while maintaining output. This becomes critical against Oliveira, whose 7:30 average suggests he's built to finish early rather than grind. The BMF title bout format (5 rounds) heavily favors Holloway's proven ability to escalate pressure in championship rounds where opponents historically fade. Holloway's cardio isn't just about endurance—it's about maintaining technique, power, and volume when others break down. His Round 5 finishes against Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier demonstrate that he doesn't just survive late rounds, he dominates them. Against Oliveira, who has only one career win in Round 5, this creates a massive advantage if the fight reaches the championship rounds. Holloway's ability to increase his output in R4-R5 while opponents decrease theirs is a proven formula for late stoppages and dominant decisions.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Oliveira's 22 career submissions (most in UFC history) and his tendency to finish 75% of wins in R1-R2 (17 R1 wins + 10 R2 wins out of 36 total) present real early danger. If Holloway gets caught in a scramble situation or makes a positioning error against the fence, Oliveira's guillotine and rear-naked choke are among the most dangerous in the sport. Holloway's 59% striking defense means he does get hit, and one clean shot could lead to the ground where Oliveira excels. The Brazilian's ability to capitalize on even momentary advantages—a dropped hand, a compromised stance, or a failed takedown attempt—makes him uniquely dangerous. His recent submission of Mateusz Gamrot, an elite grappler, shows that Oliveira can finish even defensive-minded opponents when he secures position. For Holloway, one mistake in the first two rounds could end the fight instantly, making early-round discipline paramount.
Oliveira's 74" reach versus Holloway's 69" creates a 5-inch differential that could disrupt Holloway's preferred mid-range striking exchanges. Oliveira can utilize long jabs, front kicks to the body, and teeps to keep Holloway at distance and force him to overextend on entries. This reach advantage also helps Oliveira clinch from longer range and initiate the grappling exchanges he needs.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Holloway should look to establish his jab early, mix in leg kicks to limit Oliveira's mobility, and build combinations from the outside. His goal is to survive the dangerous first two rounds while accumulating damage and forcing Oliveira to work defensively. The 30-foot cage provides space to circle and reset, preventing Oliveira from cornering him against the fence.
By maintaining relentless striking volume and immediately disengaging from clinch attempts, Holloway can force Oliveira into a pace he historically cannot sustain. Targeting the body to drain Oliveira's cardio and forcing him to cover up creates openings for head strikes. The key is making Oliveira work defensively in R1-R2, then capitalizing on his diminished output in later rounds.
🚀 Charles Oliveira Key Advantages
Oliveira holds the all-time UFC submission record with 22 career tapouts, making him the most dangerous finisher on the ground in UFC history. His 2.63 submission attempts per 15 minutes shows relentless pursuit of the finish. Once he secures any form of control—back mount, guillotine position, or even half-guard—his ability to chain attacks and find the neck is unparalleled. Holloway has never been submitted in his UFC career, but he's also never faced someone with Oliveira's ground game pedigree. The Brazilian's submission arsenal is vast: rear-naked chokes, guillotines, arm-triangles, and even leg locks. His ability to transition between positions while maintaining control and hunting submissions makes him uniquely dangerous. What makes Oliveira special is his "club and sub" approach—he doesn't need perfect position. A hurt opponent, a compromised stance, or even a failed takedown attempt can become a submission opportunity. His recent finish of Gamrot demonstrates that even elite defensive grapplers struggle to escape once Oliveira establishes control.
With an 89% finish rate (32 of 36 wins by stoppage), Oliveira rarely goes to decision. His round distribution shows 27 of his 36 wins coming in R1-R2 (17 R1 + 10 R2), demonstrating devastating early finishing ability. This "club and sub" approach—hurting opponents on the feet then transitioning to submissions—has worked against elite-level competition including Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier, and Justin Gaethje. If he can hurt Holloway early, the fight changes completely. Oliveira's power isn't just in his hands—his knees, elbows, and ground-and-pound create damage that opens submission opportunities. His TKO finish of Beneil Dariush shows he can finish fights with strikes alone, while his submission of Gamrot demonstrates his ability to finish elite grapplers. The key is Oliveira's ability to create chaos early—a knockdown, a hurt opponent, or even just significant damage—that forces opponents into defensive positions where his submission game becomes lethal. Against Holloway, who has been stopped twice in his career, Oliveira's early power presents a real threat.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Holloway consistently defends takedowns (83% TDD) and immediately creates distance after clinch breaks, Oliveira loses his primary path to victory. Historical data shows when Oliveira cannot establish grappling exchanges, he becomes vulnerable to volume strikers who can outwork him on the feet. His 49% striking defense versus Holloway's 7.16 SLpM creates a dangerous accumulation scenario.
Oliveira's 7:30 average fight duration suggests limited experience in prolonged battles. His losses to Arman Tsarukyan and Ilia Topuria came when he couldn't secure early finishes and was forced to compete in extended exchanges. In a 5-round BMF title fight against the all-time volume leader, Oliveira risks significant cardio depletion if the fight reaches R4-R5 without a finish.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Oliveira's optimal strategy is front-loading pressure in R1-R2 when his cardio is fresh and Holloway hasn't established rhythm. Utilizing his 5-inch reach advantage to land long jabs and front kicks, then immediately transitioning to clinch attempts or takedowns. The goal is to hurt Holloway early—even a flash knockdown opens submission opportunities that Oliveira capitalizes on better than anyone.
Against the fence, Oliveira should look to drag Holloway into wrestling exchanges, threaten knees in the clinch, and hunt for snapdown guillotine opportunities. Even if he doesn't secure takedowns, making Holloway work defensively in the clinch drains the Hawaiian's striking rhythm. Every second spent defending grappling is a second Holloway isn't throwing volume.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon at T-Mobile Arena creates an ideal environment for Holloway's volume-based approach. The extra space allows him to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred mid-range striking distance. For Oliveira, the large cage presents challenges—he typically excels when he can trap opponents against the fence and force clinch exchanges. Holloway's footwork and cage awareness should allow him to stay centered and avoid the extended fence time that Oliveira needs to initiate grappling sequences. The large cage also benefits Holloway's cardio-first strategy: more space means more movement, more angles, and more opportunities to reset when Oliveira pressures. Conversely, Oliveira's game relies on cutting off the cage and forcing opponents into corners where his clinch and takedown game becomes most effective. In a 30-foot octagon, Holloway can use lateral movement to prevent Oliveira from establishing fence control, forcing the Brazilian to chase and expend energy. This spatial advantage compounds over five rounds as Oliveira's cardio becomes a factor and Holloway's movement remains consistent.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical matchup reveals a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic with extreme specialization on both sides. Holloway's 7.16 SLpM vs. Oliveira's 3.41 represents the largest striking output differential in a major lightweight title fight—more than double the output. However, Oliveira's 2.63 SubPer15 and historical 22 UFC submissions counter with elite finishing threat. The key metric is Holloway's 83% takedown defense—if this holds, Oliveira's primary path to victory is significantly narrowed. The 5-inch reach disadvantage for Holloway adds complexity but his volume typically overwhelms longer opponents who can't match his output. Beyond raw numbers, Holloway's 59% striking defense versus Oliveira's 49% creates a compounding advantage: not only does Holloway land more, he gets hit less. This damage economy becomes critical in a five-round fight where accumulated damage affects performance. Oliveira's 89% finish rate is impressive, but it's built on early finishes—he has only one career win in Round 5. Holloway's 12 Round 5 wins show he's built for championship rounds, while Oliveira's 7:30 average fight duration suggests he's built to finish early or struggle late.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical factors will determine the outcome: (1) Early survival—Holloway must navigate R1-R2 without getting hurt or taken down, as 75% of Oliveira's wins come in these rounds (17 R1 + 10 R2 out of 36 total wins). This is Oliveira's window of maximum danger, where his power and submission game are at their peak. Holloway's ability to defend takedowns, avoid clean shots, and maintain distance during these critical early minutes sets the foundation for his path to victory. (2) Takedown defense execution—Holloway's 83% TDD vs. Oliveira's 2.23 TD15 is the fight's central tension. If Holloway can consistently stuff takedowns and immediately separate from clinch attempts, Oliveira loses his primary weapon. However, Oliveira only needs one successful takedown to potentially end the fight, making every grappling exchange high-stakes. (3) Cardio durability—Holloway's 16:06 average fight time vs. Oliveira's 7:30 suggests significant advantages in later rounds. If the fight reaches R4-R5 without a finish, Holloway's championship experience and conditioning become decisive factors. His 12 career Round 5 wins demonstrate that he doesn't just survive late rounds—he dominates them. Oliveira's single Round 5 win in his career suggests he struggles to maintain effectiveness in championship rounds.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Max Holloway by Decision (30% probability), achieved through sustained volume, superior cardio, and successful takedown defense over five rounds. This path requires Holloway to weather early danger, maintain his 7.16 SLpM output throughout, and consistently defend takedowns. His ability to accumulate damage while avoiding significant return fire creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward. Holloway's TKO path (28%) becomes viable in R3-R5 when Oliveira's output typically diminishes and his cardio begins to fade. Holloway's late-round finishing ability—evidenced by his Round 5 KO of Justin Gaethje—shows he can capitalize on accumulated damage when opponents break down. Oliveira's primary win condition is Submission (15%), requiring him to hurt Holloway early and transition to ground control before the volume advantage compounds. His 22 career submissions and 75% early-round finish rate make this a real threat, but Holloway's 83% TDD creates a significant barrier. Oliveira's KO/TKO path (10%) depends on landing the clean shots that historically precede his submission finishes. His power is real—as shown in his TKO of Dariush—but Holloway's durability and defensive awareness make this a lower-probability path.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% | Fair: +257
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 62% | Fair: -163
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights submission threat – Market may underestimate Holloway's 83% TDD.
- • Undervalues volume advantage – 110% SLpM differential historically decisive in title fights.
- • Cardio asymmetry – 16:06 vs 7:30 avg fight time suggests late-round dominance for Holloway.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Max Holloway
Primary path via sustained volume and TDD
Late stoppage via accumulated damage R3-R5
Rare scramble opportunity in late rounds
💥Outcome Distribution - Charles Oliveira
Primary win lane via club-and-sub approach
Requires sustained control and knockdowns
Early power shots transitioning to ground
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Charles Oliveira
- • First 10 minutes: Highest submission and KO equity.
- • Clinch hunting: Use reach to initiate tie-ups.
- • Body work: Drain Holloway's cardio early.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Max Holloway
- • Survive R1-R2: Weather the storm, defend takedowns.
- • Build volume: Establish jab rhythm, work the body.
- • Late acceleration: Championship rounds are his domain.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence in volume edge; Oliveira finish threat caps rating
✅Supporting Factors
- • 110% striking volume advantage (7.16 vs 3.41 SLpM)
- • Elite 83% takedown defense vs 2.23 TD15
- • Championship cardio (16:06 avg vs 7:30)
- • 12 career R5 wins; proven late-fight finisher
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Oliveira's 22 UFC subs—most in history
- • 5-inch reach disadvantage for Holloway
- • Early knockdown could change everything
🏁Executive Summary
Max Holloway enters the BMF Lightweight Title bout as a moderate favorite based on his historic striking volume, elite takedown defense, and proven championship cardio. His 7.16 significant strikes per minute—more than double Oliveira's 3.41—combined with 83% takedown defense creates a path to victory that relies on weathering early danger and imposing his will in later rounds. The 30-foot cage at T-Mobile Arena suits his movement-heavy, volume-first approach, providing space to circle, reset, and maintain optimal striking distance. Holloway's statistical advantages are clear: 110% volume differential, 10% better striking defense (59% vs 49%), and a massive cardio edge evidenced by his 16:06 average fight duration versus Oliveira's 7:30. However, Oliveira's 22 career UFC submissions—the most in history—and his 89% finish rate create real early danger that cannot be ignored. The Brazilian's ability to finish fights in R1-R2 (75% of his wins) makes the opening rounds critical for both fighters.
The fight's dynamics will be determined by three key factors: Holloway's ability to defend takedowns consistently, Oliveira's capacity to create early chaos and capitalize on opportunities, and the cardio differential that becomes increasingly significant as rounds progress. Holloway's 12 career Round 5 wins versus Oliveira's single Round 5 victory suggests a massive late-fight advantage if the Hawaiian can survive the early danger. The large cage benefits Holloway's movement-based game while challenging Oliveira's fence-control approach. Oliveira's 5-inch reach advantage provides opportunities for long jabs and front kicks, but Holloway's volume typically overwhelms longer opponents who cannot match his output.
Prediction: Holloway by Decision most likely (30% probability) through sustained volume and successful TDD over 5 rounds; his TKO path (28%) becomes viable in R3-R5 as Oliveira's cardio fades and accumulated damage takes effect. Oliveira's best lane is early Submission (15%) via his club-and-sub approach—hurt Holloway, drag him down, finish. His KO/TKO path (10%) requires landing clean shots that create submission opportunities. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Holloway can navigate the dangerous first two rounds without getting hurt or taken down. If he survives R1-R2 with minimal damage and maintains his takedown defense, his volume and cardio advantages become increasingly decisive in the championship rounds. However, Oliveira's finishing ability means one mistake could end the fight instantly, making this a high-stakes matchup where discipline and execution are paramount.