Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliveira
Saturday, February 7, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
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Jean Matsumoto
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Farid Basharat
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jean Matsumoto
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | Miles Johns | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-08 | Chris Gutierrez | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-22 | Rob Font | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-19 | Brad Katona | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-06 | Dan Argueta | W | Submission - Guillotine (R2, 4:59) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Farid Basharat
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Chris Gutierrez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-26 | Victor Hugo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-13 | Taylor Lapilus | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-02 | Kleydson Rodrigues | W | Submission - Arm Triangle (R1, 4:15) |
| 2023-03-04 | Da'Mon Blackshear | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (58.0 vs 72.0) and Grappling Composite (62.0 vs 78.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Jean Matsumoto Key Advantages
Matsumoto's 5.43 strikes landed per minute represents legitimate pace that can win rounds in open space. His high-tempo pressure boxing approach creates messy exchanges where he can overwhelm opponents with volume. The +1.38 SLpM differential over Basharat (5.43 vs 4.05) gives Jean a clear advantage when fights remain at long range. His ability to push pace early and force opponents to cover up creates clinch looks and scoring opportunities. In a 25-foot cage, maintaining this output becomes more challenging, but Matsumoto's volume remains his primary path to victory when he can keep his back off the fence.
Matsumoto's higher submission rate (0.6 vs 0.4) combined with proven guillotine finishing ability represents his most realistic finish path. His front-headlock game becomes particularly dangerous when opponents over-wrestle or commit to lazy takedown attempts. We've seen this in his win set—the submission victory over Dan Argueta via guillotine in Round 2 demonstrates his opportunistic finishing ability. If Basharat over-commits to clinch entries or becomes sloppy with his takedown attempts, Matsumoto's guillotine threat becomes live and could produce an upset finish. This submission equity is crucial because it forces Basharat to be disciplined with his entries, potentially reducing his takedown volume.
Matsumoto's career shows significant durability and round-winning ability, with 47% of his wins coming via decision. His record demonstrates he can go the distance and win minutes through volume and pressure. This durability factor means he can stay competitive even when facing defensive specialists like Basharat. His ability to maintain pace and win rounds through output gives him a path to victory even if he can't secure finishes. The challenge is that Basharat's defensive profile (2.47 SApM, 60% Str Def) makes it difficult for Jean to win those volume-based decisions, but his proven ability to go the distance and compete at a high pace remains an asset.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Matsumoto's defensive profile is the red flag: he absorbs 5.43 strikes per minute with only 48% striking defense, making him highly hittable. Basharat is the opposite (2.47 SApM, 60% Str Def)—that's the kind of differential that usually decides "who's exchanges matter." In a small cage, Basharat's cleaner entries and superior defense mean Matsumoto's volume advantage becomes less meaningful when he's absorbing significantly more damage in return. This defensive gap favors Basharat more than the pace gap favors Jean, creating a structural disadvantage that tends to hold up across opponents.
Matsumoto's takedown defense is only 53%, which becomes a significant liability in a small cage against a high-takedown-volume fighter like Basharat (3.60 TD/15). The 25-foot Octagon compresses space and increases clinch and wrestling collision frequency, directly stressing Jean's defensive capabilities. Once Basharat secures takedowns, his positional control and low-risk scoring approach can accumulate control time and win rounds. If Matsumoto falls behind early, he has fewer "safe resets" because Basharat's 72% takedown defense prevents Jean from flipping the script and using his own wrestling to reset the fight.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Matsumoto should start long, using jab and low kick combinations before exiting to maintain distance. This approach makes Basharat shoot from further away, reducing the effectiveness of his clinch entries and body-lock attempts. By winning Round 1 on pace and volume from long range, Matsumoto can establish early momentum and force Basharat to adjust his gameplan. The key is maintaining this distance while staying active enough to score points and prevent Basharat from settling into his preferred clinch-to-takedown rhythm.
Matsumoto should prioritize winning Round 1 on pace and volume, then selectively clinch only when he initiates. His 5.43 SLpM output becomes most effective when he can maintain it without extended grappling exchanges. By controlling when and where clinch situations occur, Matsumoto can prevent Basharat from establishing his preferred control sequences. The goal is to bank early rounds through volume while avoiding the fence pressure and takedown chains that favor Basharat.
If taken down, Matsumoto must immediately wall-walk and not accept bottom position. Basharat's positional control and low-risk scoring approach can accumulate control time and win rounds if Jean stays on his back. The small cage makes wall-walking more difficult, but it's essential for Matsumoto to get back to his feet quickly to reset the fight to his preferred range. Accepting bottom position plays directly into Basharat's strengths and eliminates Matsumoto's volume advantage.
🚀 Farid Basharat Key Advantages
Basharat's defensive profile is exceptional: 2.47 strikes absorbed per minute with 60% striking defense represents a major "hard to hurt, hard to out-land" indicator. This creates a structural advantage that tends to hold up across opponents. The defensive striking split (SApM 2.47 vs Matsumoto's 5.43) combined with Str Def (60% vs 48%) is not subtle—it's the kind of differential that usually decides "who's exchanges matter." Over 15 minutes, Basharat's ability to minimize damage while maintaining accuracy creates scoring optics that judges consistently reward, especially when combined with his control time.
Basharat's 3.60 takedowns per 15 minutes at 47% accuracy represents sustained pressure, not one-off shots. This wrestling volume becomes amplified in a small 25-foot cage, where clinch entries and takedown attempts occur more frequently. His ability to chain shots and maintain pressure while opponents defend creates fatigue differentials that compound over three rounds. The small cage compresses space and increases clinch/wrestling collision frequency, directly benefiting Basharat's preferred scoring routes. More fence time leads to more clinch situations, which lead to more takedown attempts—a cycle that stresses Matsumoto's 53% TD defense.
Basharat's 72% takedown defense prevents Matsumoto from flipping the script and using his own wrestling to reset the fight. This creates a one-way wrestling advantage where Basharat can pressure with takedowns while Matsumoto has limited ability to counter with his own grappling. If Matsumoto falls behind early, he has fewer "safe resets" because Basharat's strong TD defense makes it hard for Jean to "panic-wrestle" to reset. This anti-wrestling moat ensures that when wrestling exchanges occur, they favor Basharat, making it difficult for Matsumoto to escape unfavorable positions or create his own control sequences.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Basharat's lower offensive pace (4.05 SLpM vs Matsumoto's 5.43) means if Jean can keep him at long range and "force output," rounds can get closer than the talent gap suggests. In open space, Matsumoto's +1.38 SLpM advantage can win rounds through volume, especially if Basharat struggles to close distance and establish his preferred clinch entries. The small cage helps mitigate this, but if Matsumoto successfully maintains distance and prevents fence pressure, Basharat's lower output could create scoring opportunities for Jean. This scenario requires Matsumoto to execute perfectly, but it represents a viable path to victory.
If Basharat over-commits to clinch entries or becomes sloppy with his takedown attempts, Matsumoto's front-headlock game and guillotine threat become live. This represents Jean's most realistic finish path—his submission opportunism (0.6 Sub/15) combined with proven guillotine finishing ability could produce an upset finish if Basharat's entries are undisciplined. The small cage increases the likelihood of clinch situations, but it also increases the risk of Basharat committing to entries that expose him to Matsumoto's submission threats. This scenario requires Basharat to maintain discipline with his entries, which reduces his takedown volume but prevents fight-ending mistakes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Basharat should pressure behind straight shots, forcing Matsumoto to circle into the fence. His 52% striking accuracy and 60% striking defense allow him to land clean shots while minimizing return fire. By using the jab and straight punches to win the first beat of exchanges, then changing levels or hitting body-lock/clinch, Basharat can control the fight's location and pace. The small cage amplifies this approach—less space means Matsumoto has fewer escape routes, making fence pressure more effective. This strategy directly targets Matsumoto's weakness (53% TD defense) while playing to Basharat's strengths (clean entries, positional control).
Basharat should mix single-leg and double-leg takedown attempts with body-lock entries, keeping Matsumoto's hips working and preventing him from establishing striking rhythm. His 3.60 TD/15 at 47% accuracy represents sustained pressure that compounds over three rounds. By varying his takedown entries, Basharat prevents Matsumoto from timing counters and creates multiple paths to control time. The body-lock entries are particularly effective in a small cage, where clinch situations occur more frequently and Matsumoto has less space to disengage. This approach maximizes Basharat's wrestling volume while minimizing exposure to Matsumoto's guillotine threats.
Once Basharat secures takedowns, his priority should be establishing top control and safe ground-and-pound—no reckless shots into guillotine. His measured, defense-first approach emphasizes positional control and low-risk scoring over submission attempts. This strategy maximizes control time while minimizing the risk of Matsumoto's opportunistic front-headlock finishes. By prioritizing top control and safe GNP, Basharat can bank minutes through rides and positional dominance without exposing himself to submission threats or sweeps. This approach aligns with his overall style: measured operator who wins by denying returns.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot APEX octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially allowing Matsumoto's high-volume pace to create opportunities, but gradually shifting toward Basharat's control sequences as the fight progresses. Basharat's 71-inch reach and 5'8" height give him significant advantages when he can establish clinch entries and utilize his takedown volume effectively. The small cage amplifies Basharat's wrestling advantage (3.60 TD15 vs 2.14) by reducing the space Matsumoto needs to disengage and reset. Basharat's ability to cut off angles and force exchanges at the fence transforms the cage from Matsumoto's volume weapon into Basharat's control platform, creating a progressive advantage that compounds over three rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: defensive efficiency and wrestling activity. Basharat's 2.47 SApM vs Matsumoto's 5.43 represents a massive defensive gap that fundamentally alters damage accumulation and scoring optics. While Matsumoto's striking moments (5.43 SLpM, 41% accuracy) create impressive volume, Basharat's damage economy (2.47 SApM vs 5.43) means he absorbs significantly less damage while maintaining offensive output. The Afghan's 60% striking defense combined with his wrestling threat forces Matsumoto into uncomfortable exchanges where his high-volume approach becomes less effective. Basharat's 3.60 TD15 vs Matsumoto's 2.14 creates a wrestling volume advantage that's amplified in the small cage. These differentials create a scoring framework where Basharat's control time and damage efficiency consistently outweigh Matsumoto's striking output in judges' eyes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: first-layer takedown defense vs wrestling volume in the small cage, volume pace vs defensive efficiency, and submission opportunities vs control sequences. Matsumoto's 53% takedown defense suggests he can stuff some attempts, but Basharat's persistence and re-shot ability (3.60 TD15) typically break through over time in the compressed space. The Brazilian's high-volume pace (5.43 SLpM) represents his primary weapon, but Basharat's defensive efficiency (60% StrDef, 2.47 SApM) makes this volume less effective. As the fight progresses, Basharat's superior defensive metrics and wrestling volume become increasingly decisive, especially when combined with his control sequences that force Matsumoto to expend energy defending takedowns and fighting off his back.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Farid Basharat by Decision (46% probability), achieved through consistent control sequences, superior damage economy, and wrestling volume advantage over three rounds. Basharat's Submission path (16%) becomes viable if his positional control creates submission windows, particularly when Matsumoto is forced to scramble repeatedly. Basharat's KO/TKO path (10%) becomes viable if his cleaner counters accumulate damage through exchanges. Matsumoto's upset lane centers on Decision (14%) via high-volume pace if he can maintain extended range throughout three rounds—a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely as Basharat's pressure escalates and the small cage space compresses. Matsumoto's submission path (8%) requires opportunistic front-headlock finishes when Basharat over-commits to takedown entries.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 46% | Fair: +117
GOOD VALUE
Model: 16% | Fair: +525
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 68% | Fair: -213
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues defensive gap – SApM differential (2.47 vs 5.43) and StrDef (60% vs 48%) create structural advantage.
- • Small-cage amplification – 25ft octagon amplifies Basharat's wrestling volume and clinch entries.
- • Overweights Matsumoto's pace – Volume advantage less meaningful when defense and accuracy favor Basharat.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Jean Matsumoto
Volume-based pace and clean exchanges
High-volume pressure creates opportunities
Front-headlock guillotine opportunities
💥Outcome Distribution - Farid Basharat
Primary path via control and damage economy
Positional control creates submission windows
Cleaner counters accumulate damage
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Jean Matsumoto
- • First 5 minutes: High-volume pace can win early rounds.
- • Extended range: Keep fight at distance to maximize volume advantage.
- • Front-headlock: Guillotine threat if Basharat over-commits to entries.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Farid Basharat
- • Clinch entries: Small cage amplifies takedown attempts and control.
- • Damage economy: Lower SApM and higher StrDef create scoring advantage.
- • Late rounds: Control time and cleaner exchanges win decisions.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via defensive gap and small-cage wrestling advantage
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant defensive gap (SApM 2.47 vs 5.43, StrDef 60% vs 48%)
- • Wrestling volume advantage (3.60 vs 2.14 TD15) amplified in small cage
- • Superior takedown defense (72% vs 53%) prevents reset opportunities
- • Small-cage amplifies clinch entries and control sequences
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Matsumoto's high-volume pace (+1.38 SLpM) can win rounds at range
- • Front-headlock guillotine threat if Basharat over-commits
- • If fight stays at extended range, volume differential matters
🏁Executive Summary
Farid Basharat's defense-first approach should systematically control the 25-foot APEX octagon space and bank safe minutes through clinch entries and takedown sequences, while Jean Matsumoto's best equity centers on high-volume pace and opportunistic front-headlock finishes when Basharat over-commits. The statistical differentials heavily favor Basharat: his 2.47 SApM vs Matsumoto's 5.43 creates a massive defensive gap, while his 60% StrDef vs Matsumoto's 48% represents superior defensive efficiency. Basharat's 3.60 TD15 vs Matsumoto's 2.14 creates a wrestling volume advantage that's amplified in the small cage, while his 72% TDDef vs Matsumoto's 53% prevents reset opportunities. The Afghan's ability to minimize damage while maximizing control time creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially as the fight progresses and damage accumulation becomes visually apparent.
Prediction: Basharat by Decision most likely (46% probability) through consistent control sequences and superior damage economy; Matsumoto's upset lane centers on volume-based decisions (14%) or opportunistic submissions (8%) via front-headlock guillotines if Basharat over-commits to takedown entries. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Matsumoto can maintain extended range and maximize his volume advantage before Basharat's wrestling pressure and defensive efficiency become decisive factors in the small cage.