Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC 324
Saturday, January 24, 2026 • T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Natalia Silva
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rose Namajunas
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Natalia Silva
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Alexa Grasso | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-07 | Jessica Andrade | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-03 | Viviane Araujo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-19 | Andrea Lee | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-20 | Victoria Leonardo | W | TKO - Punches and Head Kick (R1, 2:58) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Rose Namajunas
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Miranda Maverick | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-02 | Erin Blanchfield | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-13 | Tracy Cortez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-23 | Amanda Ribas | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-02 | Manon Fiorot | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (67.0 vs 49.0) and Grappling Composite (31.0 vs 49.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Natalia Silva Key Advantages
Silva's 5.04 strikes landed per minute compared to Namajunas's 3.60 represents a significant volume advantage. In a 3-round fight, this translates to approximately 22-25 more significant strikes landed. Silva's Taekwondo background enables her to maintain high output with diverse attack angles—spinning kicks, head kicks, and boxing combinations that keep opponents on the defensive. This volume advantage compounds with her superior striking accuracy (46% vs 42%) and striking defense (65% vs 64%), creating a positive damage exchange in virtually every minute of stand-up fighting. Her ability to switch levels quickly, from low leg kicks to head-level spinning attacks, makes her unpredictable and difficult to counter. Against elite competition like Alexa Grasso, Jessica Andrade, and Viviane Araujo, Silva has demonstrated she can sustain this high-volume approach for three full rounds without significant drop-off, proving her cardio matches her aggressive output. The large 30-foot cage amplifies this advantage by providing more space for Silva's footwork and movement, allowing her to reset and maintain optimal striking distance throughout the fight.
Silva's 92% takedown defense is elite-tier and represents her most decisive statistical advantage. This completely neutralizes Namajunas's primary path to victory—her 1.49 TD/15min and 51% takedown accuracy become largely irrelevant against Silva's defensive wrestling. Rose needs the fight on the ground to implement her grappling and submission game, but Silva's TDD ensures the fight stays standing where she dominates. This defensive excellence allows Silva to strike freely without fear of level changes, maintaining her high-volume output throughout the fight. Her ability to sprawl and immediately reset to distance prevents Namajunas from establishing the clinch control necessary for her grappling sequences. In her UFC career, Silva has faced takedown attempts from various grapplers and consistently demonstrated the ability to defend, get back to her feet quickly, and resume her striking offense. This creates a frustrating cycle for Rose where failed takedown attempts waste energy while Silva continues to land clean strikes and win rounds, making each defensive sequence a victory in itself.
Silva absorbs only 2.46 strikes per minute compared to Namajunas's 3.38, creating a favorable damage economy that compounds over three rounds. Combined with her higher output (5.04 vs 3.60 SLpM), Silva maintains a positive striking differential of approximately +2.5 per minute. This efficiency stems from her Taekwondo footwork and ability to strike from distance, making her difficult to counter effectively. The large cage (30ft) amplifies this advantage by giving Silva more space to maneuver and control distance. This 0.92 SApM differential means Silva takes significantly less damage while dishing out more offense—a winning formula in scoring optics. Her 65% striking defense—the highest between these two—means she avoids damage even when opponents are aggressive. The large cage amplifies this advantage by giving Silva more space to maneuver, circle away from pressure, and reset to optimal striking distance. This damage economy becomes particularly important in a 3-round fight where judges evaluate visible damage and control—Silva's ability to land clean while avoiding punishment creates a clear visual advantage that scoring criteria consistently reward.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Namajunas can close distance and establish clinch control, Silva's striking advantages diminish significantly. Rose's experience in dirty boxing and clinch work could neutralize Silva's Taekwondo-based distance striking. The veteran has demonstrated exceptional ability to use the clinch for trips, off-balancing, short strikes, and transitions to takedown attempts—all techniques that don't require the space Silva prefers for her kicking game. Once in close quarters, Rose's superior clinch skills become a factor, potentially allowing her to control Silva against the cage, drain her energy, and create openings for takedown attempts or short strikes that score points. This scenario becomes particularly dangerous if Silva becomes predictable in her escapes or if she panics and engages in prolonged clinch battles where Rose's experience and strength advantage become more apparent. The key is whether Silva can prevent Rose from establishing this position consistently—her 92% TDD suggests she can, but one bad sequence could change the fight's momentum.
Silva's high-volume approach can become predictable, and Namajunas is an excellent counter-striker. If Rose can time Silva's entries—particularly the spinning attacks from Taekwondo—she could land fight-changing counters. Rose's experience against aggressive strikers gives her the pattern recognition to exploit overly committed attacks. Her extensive experience against aggressive, high-output strikers (Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Zhang Weili) has given her exceptional pattern recognition and the ability to exploit overly committed attacks. Her counter-punching game, especially her straight left and hook combinations, can catch Silva coming in during her kicking entries. The danger increases if Silva becomes overconfident in her volume advantage and neglects defensive positioning, leaving openings for Rose's precise counters. Additionally, Rose's ability to counter off missed kicks—where Silva's balance is compromised—could create takedown opportunities or scoring exchanges that swing rounds in close fights. Silva must maintain defensive awareness even while pushing her aggressive pace.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Silva should utilize the large 30-foot octagon to maintain optimal striking distance, using her superior Taekwondo footwork to circle, pivot, and create angles that prevent Rose from establishing consistent pressure. Her jab should serve as both a range finder and a deterrent to Rose's forward movement, while her leg kicks—particularly to Rose's lead leg—can disrupt Rose's base and limit her ability to close distance for takedown attempts. Body kicks are crucial for accumulating damage and forcing Rose to respect Silva's range, while head kicks remain a constant threat that can end the fight with a single clean connection. Volume is absolutely key—maintaining 5+ SLpM throughout three rounds will overwhelm Namajunas's lower output (3.6 SLpM) and win rounds decisively on the scorecards. Silva should vary her attack patterns to avoid becoming predictable: mixing spinning attacks with boxing combinations, level changes from head to body to legs, and using feints to set up her more committed strikes. The goal is to force Rose into a pure striking battle where Silva's advantages are most pronounced, while using movement and distance control to neutralize Rose's grappling attempts.
When Namajunas does attempt takedowns, Silva should sprawl aggressively, use underhooks to control posture, and immediately reset to distance rather than engaging in prolonged grappling exchanges. Her elite 92% takedown defense allows complete confidence in these defensive sequences, and Silva has consistently demonstrated the ability to defend shots, create separation, and return to striking range. The key is avoiding any extended clinch or ground time where Rose's experience, submission threats (rear-naked chokes, guillotines), and positional control become factors. Silva should not be drawn into scrambles or bottom position battles—even if she has Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu credentials from her background, engaging Rose on the ground plays into the veteran's strengths. Instead, Silva should treat takedown defense as a means to an end: get the fight back to standing where her striking advantages are overwhelming. If Silva finds herself in a clinch, she should prioritize creating space and disengaging rather than trying to out-grapple Rose. This strategy maximizes Silva's strengths while minimizing Rose's path to victory.
🚀 Rose Namajunas Key Advantages
Namajunas's 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes with 51% accuracy represents her primary path to victory and the single most important factor in determining whether she can overcome Silva's striking advantages. Her wrestling has improved significantly since moving to flyweight, where the additional weight has added strength to her grappling game without compromising her speed. Rose has demonstrated exceptional ability to chain takedown attempts with clinch work, using level changes, trips, and double-leg entries that create multiple paths to the mat. The submission threat (0.37 Sub/15) adds another critical dimension—if she can successfully get Silva down and establish dominant positions, her rear-naked choke, guillotine, and armbar are legitimate finish threats that have ended fights at the highest level. Rose has 5 career submission wins, including victories over elite competition, and her grappling IQ remains elite with an intuitive understanding of transitions, back takes, and submission setups. Against opponents who can't match her ground game, Rose's ability to control from top position, pass guard, and threaten submissions creates scoring opportunities that can win rounds even if she doesn't finish the fight. The challenge, however, is whether she can implement this game against Silva's elite takedown defense.
With 14 UFC fights including two strawweight championship reigns, Namajunas brings invaluable championship experience that cannot be quantified by statistics alone. She's faced and defeated the absolute elite of women's MMA—multiple victories over Joanna Jedrzejczyk (one of the greatest strikers in WMMA history), dramatic finishes of Zhang Weili, and battles with Jessica Andrade—experiences that have forged her into a tactically intelligent fighter. Rose knows how to make mid-fight adjustments, recognize patterns in opponents' attacks, and adapt her gameplan when initial strategies aren't working. Her cardio is thoroughly proven over 5-round championship fights (15:39 avg duration), demonstrating she can maintain technical precision and fight IQ even when fatigued. In a 3-round fight, this proven endurance means she can push pace in the later rounds where less experienced fighters typically fade, potentially stealing close rounds with championship-round experience. This tactical intelligence, combined with her ability to remain calm under pressure, could be the decisive factor in competitive rounds where statistical advantages are neutralized. Rose's understanding of fight pacing, when to press forward versus when to counter, and how to exploit openings that statistics don't capture, represents an intangible advantage that could bridge the gap between her and Silva's physical/statistical edges.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Silva's elite 92% takedown defense is the primary obstacle to Rose's entire gameplan and represents the single greatest challenge Namajunas faces in this matchup. If Namajunas cannot consistently get the fight to the ground through three rounds, she's forced into a pure striking battle where Silva holds significant advantages in volume (5.04 vs 3.6 SLpM), accuracy (46% vs 42%), and defense (65% vs 64%). Failed takedown attempts are particularly costly—they drain significant energy, expose Rose to counter-strikes during the shot attempt, and give Silva opportunities to land clean strikes during transitions back to standing. Each failed attempt further validates Silva's defensive strategy while undermining Rose's confidence in her primary weapon. The cumulative effect of multiple failed attempts compounds over three rounds, leaving Rose increasingly frustrated and forced into a striking battle where she's statistically disadvantaged. Additionally, failed takedown attempts often result in Silva landing strikes during the sprawl or in transition, creating visible damage that judges notice on scorecards. Rose must be strategic about when to attempt takedowns—picking her moments rather than forcing shots that aren't there—but against Silva's elite TDD, those moments may be few and far between.
Silva's 5.04 SLpM output can completely overwhelm Namajunas's 3.6 SLpM, creating a striking differential that accumulates dramatically throughout the fight and creates a substantial volume gap that judges consistently reward. Rose's lower output, combined with higher absorption (3.38 SApM vs 2.46), means she's losing the damage exchange in every minute of stand-up fighting, creating a negative feedback loop where she absorbs more damage while landing fewer strikes. This differential becomes particularly problematic in close rounds where judges are looking for clear winners—Silva's volume advantage often makes her the obvious choice even when rounds are competitive. The large 30-foot cage further compounds this issue by giving Silva ample space to maintain her preferred distance, circle away from pressure, reset after exchanges, and avoid the clinch entries that Rose needs to neutralize the striking advantage. In a smaller cage, Rose might be able to cut off angles and force more frequent exchanges, but in the spacious octagon, Silva can essentially control the distance and pace of the fight, making it extremely difficult for Rose to close the gap consistently. This creates a scenario where Rose must push forward aggressively to close distance, which leaves her exposed to Silva's counter-strikes and makes her predictable.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Namajunas needs to close distance quickly and establish sustained clinch control to negate Silva's range striking advantages and force the fight into areas where Rose's experience and grappling skills become factors. Using strategic feints, level changes, and forward pressure to close the gap, Rose should look to engage in dirty boxing in the clinch, threaten takedowns off overhooks and underhooks, and work trips and sweeps against the cage. This approach nullifies Silva's Taekwondo distance game by removing the space she needs for her kicking attacks, while creating multiple grappling opportunities that can lead to takedowns, control time, or submission attempts. Rose's clinch work should focus on controlling Silva's posture, limiting her ability to create separation, and using short strikes (knees, elbows, uppercuts) that score points while maintaining position. Against the cage, Rose can use her strength and technique to work for trips, body locks, and double-leg takedowns that are more effective in close quarters. The key is maintaining pressure and not allowing Silva to reset to distance after each defensive sequence. Rose must be persistent, chain multiple attempts together, and accept that she'll likely need to fail several times before finding success—patience and persistence against elite TDD are essential.
Rose must significantly increase her striking output to compete with Silva's overwhelming volume advantage. Her typical 3.6 SLpM won't be remotely sufficient in this matchup—she needs to push toward 5+ SLpM while intelligently mixing in takedown threats that keep Silva guessing and defensive. The combination of increased striking activity and constant grappling threats can disrupt Silva's rhythm, prevent her from settling into a comfortable striking flow, and create scoring opportunities in what projects to be a highly competitive fight. Rose's increased volume must be strategic rather than reckless—using her jab to close distance, body shots to set up level changes, and combinations that end with takedown feints that keep Silva defensive. She can't afford to engage in pure kickboxing exchanges where Silva's volume and accuracy advantages become apparent, but she also can't be so focused on takedowns that she neglects striking entirely. The balance is critical: enough striking activity to win rounds on volume if takedowns fail, combined with persistent grappling threats that force Silva to remain defensive and create openings. Rose's experience in championship fights has taught her how to push pace effectively, and she'll need to channel that ability here to match Silva's output while maintaining the strategic threat of her grappling game.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon at T-Mobile Arena provides ample space for Silva's Taekwondo-based distance striking game, creating an environment that fundamentally favors her technical approach over Namajunas's clinch-heavy gameplan. The large cage dimensionally advantages the fighter who can control range and maintain distance—in this matchup, that's clearly Silva, whose footwork, movement patterns, and ability to reset create an ideal spacing for her kicking attacks. Her superior footwork and lateral movement allow her to circle, create angles, pivot out of danger, and systematically avoid the clinch entries that Namajunas needs to implement her grappling offense. The extra space gives Silva more room to escape after throwing kicks, reset to optimal distance, and prevent Rose from cutting off angles effectively. Rose's path to victory requires compressing the cage, cutting off escape routes, and forcing exchanges at close range—objectives that become increasingly difficult in a larger octagon where Silva can reset, maintain her preferred distance, and utilize the full scope of her movement. In a smaller cage, Rose might be able to pressure Silva into corners and limit her mobility, but the 30-foot octagon essentially gives Silva multiple escape routes and reset opportunities after each exchange. This spatial advantage compounds over three rounds, as Silva can maintain her distance-based strategy without significant cage compression, while Rose must work significantly harder to close distance and establish the close-quarters exchanges that favor her skill set.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The comprehensive statistical analysis reveals clear, well-defined battlegrounds that predict the fight's likely trajectory: Silva dominates every measurable striking metric (5.04 vs 3.6 SLpM volume, 46% vs 42% accuracy, 65% vs 64% defense, 2.46 vs 3.38 SApM absorption) while Namajunas holds grappling advantages (1.49 vs 0.34 TD15 volume, 51% vs 25% TD accuracy, 0.37 vs 0.0 Sub/15). However, the decisive factor that determines the fight's outcome is Silva's elite 92% takedown defense—a number that ranks among the highest in the women's flyweight division and systematically neutralizes Rose's primary path to victory. This defensive excellence transforms the matchup from a grappler vs striker dynamic into a pure striking contest where Silva's advantages become overwhelming. Silva's striking composite (67.0) significantly outpaces Namajunas (49.0), reflecting her superior volume, accuracy, defense, and damage economy, while Rose's grappling composite (49.0) only marginally exceeds Silva's (31.0), indicating that even in grappling exchanges, the gap isn't as substantial as the striking differential. Critically, Silva's TDD ensures the fight projects to stay standing where her overwhelming striking advantages can be fully utilized, preventing Rose from accessing her grappling skills and forcing her into a battle where she's statistically disadvantaged. The numbers suggest that unless Rose can overcome Silva's elite takedown defense—a challenge that has proven insurmountable for most opponents—she'll be engaged in a striking battle where Silva holds clear, decisive advantages across multiple dimensions.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical, interconnected factors will determine the outcome of this flyweight bout: first, whether Rose can overcome Silva's elite 92% takedown defense and successfully implement her takedown game to get the fight to the ground where her grappling advantages become relevant; second, if Namajunas can consistently close distance through Silva's movement and establish the clinch control necessary for her trips, takedowns, and dirty boxing; and third, whether Silva can maintain her aggressive 5+ SLpM output throughout three full rounds without significant drop-off or defensive lapses. Silva's perfect invincibility in UFC (7-0 record) demonstrates consistent execution at the highest level, with victories over elite competition including former champion Alexa Grasso and perennial contender Jessica Andrade, proving she can perform under pressure against the division's best. Conversely, Rose's recent losses to pressure fighters who combine high volume with physical strength (Manon Fiorot, Erin Blanchfield) suggest vulnerability against strikers who can maintain relentless pace and prevent her from establishing grappling control. The physical advantages are minimal—identical reach (65 inches), similar height (64" vs 65"), same weight class— but Silva's age advantage (28 vs 33) places her in her physical prime, while Rose's additional experience comes with accumulated mileage from multiple championship fights. Silva's momentum as an undefeated rising contender, combined with her recent victories over elite competition, suggests she's entering the peak of her career, while Rose must rely on experience and fight IQ to overcome physical and statistical disadvantages. These factors collectively point toward Silva maintaining control through striking while neutralizing Rose's grappling attempts.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome across 100 hypothetical fight simulations is Natalia Silva by Decision (38% probability), achieved through consistent volume striking dominance, elite takedown defense that prevents Rose from implementing her grappling game, and favorable damage exchange ratios over three full rounds. This path involves Silva maintaining her 5+ SLpM output, defending takedowns effectively, and winning rounds clearly through volume and control of distance. Silva's KO/TKO path (18% probability) becomes viable if she can land her signature spinning head kicks, turning side kicks, or accumulate significant damage through body work and leg kicks that compromise Rose's mobility and durability. These finish opportunities typically arise when Rose becomes desperate to close distance and exposes herself to Silva's powerful counter-strikes or when Silva's volume and pressure accumulate visible damage over multiple rounds. Rose Namajunas's upset path centers on decision wins (20% probability) via consistent clinch control, successful takedowns that neutralize Silva's striking, and ground control time that wins rounds on scorecards, or submission victories (12% probability) if she can establish dominant positions (particularly back control) where her submission threats (rear-naked choke, guillotine) become legitimate finish opportunities. The fight's outcome fundamentally hinges on Silva's ability to maintain distance and prevent Rose from closing it consistently, versus Rose's ability to overcome Silva's elite TDD and establish the close-quarters exchanges where her experience and grappling skills become factors—and the comprehensive statistical analysis heavily favors Silva maintaining distance and winning through volume striking, making her the clear statistical favorite in this matchup.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 38% | Fair: +163
GOOD VALUE
Model: 12% | Fair: +733
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 65% | Fair: -186
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights Rose's experience – Underprices Silva's statistical dominance.
- • Undervalues TDD – Silva's 92% TDD neutralizes Rose's grappling path.
- • Big-cage bias – Favors Silva's distance striking in 30ft octagon.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Natalia Silva
Primary path via volume striking and TDD
Head kicks and accumulative damage
Career BJJ background if fight goes to ground
💥Outcome Distribution - Rose Namajunas
Clinch control and takedown scoring
RNC or guillotine if she gets back control
Counter striking opportunities
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Rose Namajunas
- • First 5 minutes: Establish clinch before Silva finds rhythm.
- • Round 3: Push pace when cardio becomes factor.
- • Cage work: Force dirty boxing exchanges.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Natalia Silva
- • Volume accumulation: 5+ SLpM wins rounds clearly.
- • TDD confidence: Sprawl and reset to striking.
- • Big cage: Use space to maintain distance.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via volume striking and elite TDD
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant striking volume edge (5.04 vs 3.60 SLpM)
- • Elite TDD (92%) neutralizes Rose's grappling
- • Better damage economy (2.46 vs 3.38 SApM)
- • Undefeated in UFC with wins over elite opponents
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Rose's veteran experience and fight IQ
- • Submission threat if fight goes to ground
- • Counter-striking ability against high-volume
🏁Executive Summary
Natalia Silva enters this flyweight bout at UFC 324 with clear, measurable statistical advantages that translate directly to fight control and scoring dominance. Her exceptional 5.04 SLpM volume against Rose Namajunas's 3.6 creates a consistent, substantial striking differential of approximately +1.44 strikes per minute that compounds dramatically over three rounds, resulting in an estimated 22-25 more significant strikes landed throughout the fight. This volume advantage is further amplified by Silva's superior striking accuracy (46% vs 42%), elite striking defense (65% vs 64%), and exceptional damage economy that sees her absorb only 2.46 strikes per minute compared to Rose's 3.38. However, the most decisive statistical factor is Silva's elite 92% takedown defense—a number that ranks among the highest in the women's flyweight division and systematically neutralizes Rose's primary path to victory. Namajunas's grappling offense (1.49 TD/15 with 51% accuracy, 0.37 Sub/15) becomes largely irrelevant against Silva's defensive wrestling, forcing Rose into a pure striking battle where she's statistically disadvantaged across multiple dimensions. The large 30-foot octagon at T-Mobile Arena further favors Silva's distance-based Taekwondo striking game, giving her ample space to circle, pivot, create angles, reset after exchanges, and systematically avoid the clinch entries that Namajunas needs to implement her grappling strategy. This spatial advantage allows Silva to maintain optimal striking distance throughout the fight, preventing Rose from consistently closing the gap and establishing the close-quarters exchanges where her experience and grappling skills become factors. Silva's perfect invincibility in UFC (7-0 record) with victories over elite competition including former champion Alexa Grasso, perennial contender Jessica Andrade, and ranked flyweight Viviane Araujo demonstrates consistent execution at the highest level and proves she can perform under pressure against the division's absolute best. Conversely, Rose's recent losses to pressure fighters who combine high volume with physical strength (Manon Fiorot, Erin Blanchfield) suggest vulnerability against strikers who can maintain relentless pace, prevent takedowns, and overwhelm with volume—precisely the profile Silva represents. The physical advantages are minimal (identical 65-inch reach, similar height, same weight class), but Silva's age advantage (28 vs 33) places her in her physical prime with less accumulated mileage, while Rose's championship experience comes with the wear and tear of multiple 5-round title fights. These factors collectively create a matchup where Silva's statistical advantages, physical prime, momentum, and favorable fight conditions (large cage, 3-round format) align to position her as the clear favorite.
Prediction: Silva by Decision represents the most likely outcome (38% probability) through consistent volume striking that overwhelms Rose's lower output, elite takedown defense that neutralizes Namajunas's grappling attempts, and favorable damage exchange ratios that create clear visual advantages on scorecards. This path involves Silva maintaining her 5+ SLpM output throughout three rounds, successfully defending takedown attempts with her 92% TDD, and winning rounds decisively through volume and distance control. Silva's KO/TKO path (18% probability) becomes viable if she can land her signature spinning head kicks, turning side kicks, or accumulate significant damage through body work and leg kicks that compromise Rose's mobility, particularly if Rose becomes desperate to close distance and exposes herself to Silva's powerful counter-strikes. Rose Namajunas's upset lane centers on submission victories (12% probability) via back control and rear-naked choke if she can somehow overcome Silva's elite TDD and implement her grappling game, or decision wins (20% probability) if she can establish consistent clinch work, control time, and takedowns that win rounds on scorecards despite Silva's striking volume. The fight's outcome fundamentally hinges on whether Rose can successfully close distance against Silva's 92% TDD and elite footwork, versus Silva's ability to maintain distance and prevent Rose from establishing the close-quarters exchanges where her experience and grappling skills become factors—and the comprehensive statistical analysis, combined with Silva's demonstrated consistency against elite competition, suggests Rose cannot overcome Silva's defensive wrestling and distance control consistently enough to win the majority of rounds, making Silva the clear statistical and tactical favorite in this flyweight matchup.