Alexa Grasso vs Rose Namajunas
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC 324
Saturday, January 24, 2026 • T-Mobile Arena • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Alexa Grasso
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rose Namajunas
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alexa Grasso
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Natália Silva | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-14 | Valentina Shevchenko | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-16 | Valentina Shevchenko | D | Draw - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-04 | Valentina Shevchenko | W | Submission - RNC (R4, 4:34) |
| 2022-10-15 | Viviane Araújo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Rose Namajunas
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Miranda Maverick | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-02 | Erin Blanchfield | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-13 | Tracy Cortez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-23 | Amanda Ribas | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-02 | Manon Fiorot | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (50.0 vs 54.0) and Grappling Composite (42.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Alexa Grasso Key Advantages
Grasso's 4.19 SLpM output represents a significant volume advantage over Namajunas' 3.60, creating a 16.4% differential that becomes increasingly meaningful over three rounds. Her technical boxing approach with a consistent jab-cross-hook combination allows her to accumulate significant strikes effectively, particularly when she establishes rhythm and maintains forward pressure. This high-volume approach has been the foundation of her decision victories throughout her UFC career, with 10 of her 16 career wins coming via decision. The Mexican fighter's ability to string together combinations to both the body and head creates a layered attack that judges consistently reward, especially when she can work in the pocket and force opponents into defensive shells. Her 42% striking accuracy, while not elite, is sufficient when combined with her high output to land meaningful strikes consistently. Against opponents who struggle to match her pace or maintain defensive discipline, Grasso's volume becomes overwhelming, as seen in her victories over Viviane Araújo and Maycee Barber where she outlanded her opponents by significant margins. The key to her success lies in her ability to maintain this output without gassing, which she's proven capable of doing over five-round championship fights.
The 66" vs 65" reach differential may seem minor at first glance, but in the women's flyweight division where fighters are similarly sized and physical advantages are often marginal, every inch matters significantly. Grasso can utilize her reach to maintain distance with her jab, establishing a barrier that keeps Namajunas at the end of her punches where they're most effective. This reach advantage becomes particularly important when Grasso can establish her jab early, using it as both a range-finder and a tool to disrupt Rose's rhythm. The Mexican fighter's ability to keep opponents at the end of her punches has been evident throughout her career, allowing her to land clean shots while minimizing return fire. Against Namajunas, who relies heavily on footwork and angle changes to create openings, Grasso's reach can potentially frustrate Rose's attempts to close distance for her combination work. If Grasso can establish her jab consistently and use it to control the center of the octagon, she can force Namajunas to work from the outside, where Rose's movement-based game becomes less effective. The reach advantage also helps Grasso in clinch situations, where she can create space with her longer arms and land short elbows or uppercuts before disengaging.
Grasso's 0.65 submission attempts per 15 minutes compared to Rose's 0.40 shows a more active submission game when the fight hits the mat, representing a 62.5% increase in submission activity that could prove decisive if the fight goes to the ground. Her RNC finish over Valentina Shevchenko in their first meeting demonstrated elite back-taking ability and finishing instincts, showcasing her ability to capitalize on positional advantages with fight-ending techniques. What makes Grasso's submission game particularly dangerous is her opportunistic approach—she doesn't force submissions but rather waits for the perfect moment to attack, as evidenced by her 2 career submission victories coming at critical moments in fights. Her ability to transition from striking to grappling seamlessly allows her to catch opponents off-guard, particularly when they're focused on defending her boxing. If Rose makes positional errors in scrambles or overcommits to takedown attempts, Grasso has proven capable of capitalizing with fight-ending submissions. The Mexican fighter's submission threat also serves as a deterrent, forcing opponents to be more cautious in their grappling exchanges, which can open up opportunities in the striking realm. Her back control and rear-naked choke are particularly dangerous, as she's shown the ability to secure the position quickly and finish efficiently once she has it.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Grasso's 55% takedown defense is significantly lower than Rose's 62%, representing a 7-percentage-point deficit that becomes critical when facing an opponent with Namajunas' wrestling volume. With Namajunas averaging 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes (over 3.4x Grasso's rate of 0.44), the Mexican fighter could find herself on her back frequently, especially in a 3-round fight where Rose can push the pace without worrying about cardio concerns. The statistical differential is stark: Rose attempts nearly 3.5 takedowns for every one that Grasso attempts, and with a 50% takedown accuracy compared to Grasso's 40%, the American has both volume and efficiency advantages. Rose's functional wrestling and scramble ability could neutralize Grasso's boxing advantage entirely, forcing the Mexican to spend significant portions of rounds defending takedowns or fighting off her back. Once on the ground, Grasso's submission threat becomes less relevant if she can't secure dominant positions, and Rose's ability to maintain top control and land ground strikes could steal rounds on the scorecards. The cumulative effect of repeated takedowns also drains Grasso's energy, making it increasingly difficult for her to maintain her high-volume striking output as the fight progresses. Historical data shows that when Grasso faces opponents with strong wrestling, her striking output decreases significantly, as she's forced to focus on takedown defense rather than offense.
Coming off consecutive losses to Natália Silva and Valentina Shevchenko, Grasso's momentum has stalled significantly, creating psychological pressure that could affect her performance. The loss to Silva was particularly concerning as she was outpaced and outmaneuvered by a younger, more dynamic striker who was able to neutralize Grasso's volume advantage through superior movement and timing. This defeat exposed potential vulnerabilities in Grasso's game when facing opponents who can match or exceed her pace while maintaining better defensive discipline. The loss to Shevchenko in their rematch, while more competitive, showed that Grasso struggles when she can't establish her rhythm early and is forced to fight from behind. If she can't impose her volume game early against Namajunas, confidence issues may compound as the fight progresses, especially if Rose begins to control the pace and location of the contest. The psychological impact of back-to-back losses cannot be understated, as fighters often become hesitant or overly aggressive when trying to break losing streaks. Grasso's mental fortitude will be tested, particularly if Namajunas establishes early dominance through takedowns or superior striking defense, forcing Grasso to abandon her gameplan and fight reactively rather than proactively.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Grasso should implement controlled pressure with her jab, establishing it early as both a range-finder and a tool to disrupt Namajunas' rhythm. Working behind combinations to the body and head is crucial, as body shots can slow Rose's movement and make her more stationary, while head shots accumulate damage and score points with judges. Her 42% accuracy allows her to land at a decent rate while maintaining high volume, creating a volume-over-precision approach that has served her well throughout her career. Cutting off the cage and forcing Rose into exchanges in the pocket is essential—she cannot allow Namajunas to circle freely and pick her apart from range. Grasso must use intelligent footwork to cut angles and limit Rose's escape routes, particularly along the fence where she can trap Namajunas and unload combinations. The Mexican fighter should vary her attack levels, mixing jabs to the head with hooks to the body and uppercuts when in close, keeping Rose guessing and preventing her from establishing a defensive rhythm. Early pressure is key, as Grasso needs to establish dominance in the first round to build confidence and force Namajunas to fight reactively rather than proactively.
Focus on maintaining good posture and hip positioning to defend Rose's level changes, keeping her weight centered and ready to sprawl when Namajunas attempts takedowns. Grasso's sprawl defense will be tested repeatedly, and she must be prepared to defend multiple takedown attempts in sequence, as Rose's chain-wrestling approach means she'll re-shoot if the initial attempt fails. When taken down, prioritize getting back to feet quickly rather than playing guard, using technical get-ups and wall-walking techniques to return to standing position. Grasso cannot afford to spend extended periods on her back, as this not only gives up control time but also drains her energy and prevents her from implementing her volume striking game. The Mexican fighter needs to keep this fight standing as much as possible to maximize her boxing advantage and avoid giving up control time on the scorecards. If she finds herself in guard, she should look for submission opportunities (particularly back takes if Rose makes mistakes) but prioritize standing up over attempting complex submissions that could lead to extended ground exchanges. Her 55% takedown defense will be under constant pressure, and she must remain disciplined in her defensive approach throughout all three rounds.
🚀 Rose Namajunas Key Advantages
Namajunas' 63% striking defense significantly outpaces Grasso's 58%, representing a 5-percentage-point advantage that becomes increasingly meaningful over the course of a fight. Her elite footwork, head movement, and angle changes make her extremely difficult to hit cleanly, as she's consistently able to slip punches, pivot out of danger, and reset at optimal distance. This defensive proficiency has been a hallmark of her career, allowing her to avoid accumulating damage while picking opponents apart with precise counters and level changes. In a 3-round fight, this defensive advantage is amplified, as Rose can maintain her defensive discipline without worrying about cardio concerns that might affect longer fights. Her ability to make opponents miss and then counter effectively creates a frustrating dynamic for volume strikers like Grasso, who rely on landing a high percentage of their output. Namajunas' head movement is particularly effective against linear attacks, allowing her to slip jabs and crosses while creating angles for counter opportunities. Her footwork enables her to control distance masterfully, staying just outside of her opponent's optimal range while remaining close enough to land her own strikes. This defensive mastery, combined with her ability to mix in takedowns, creates a multidimensional threat that's difficult to solve.
Rose's 1.49 TD/15 compared to Grasso's 0.44 represents a massive 3.4x differential in wrestling activity that fundamentally shifts the dynamics of this matchup. This statistical advantage means that over the course of a 15-minute fight, Namajunas will attempt approximately 1.5 takedowns compared to Grasso's 0.44, creating multiple opportunities to control the fight's location and pace. Combined with 50% TDAcc vs 40%, Namajunas has proven ability to mix striking with level changes, keeping opponents guessing and accumulating control time when needed. Her wrestling threat opens up her striking game significantly, as opponents must respect the takedown threat, which creates openings for strikes and prevents them from committing fully to their own offense. The American's ability to chain takedown attempts together, using failed shots to set up subsequent attempts, makes her wrestling particularly dangerous. Her functional wrestling style, which emphasizes control and position over explosive finishes, is perfectly suited for scoring rounds and accumulating control time. In a 3-round fight, Rose can push her wrestling pace without worrying about gassing, making her takedown threat even more potent. The psychological impact of her wrestling threat cannot be understated, as Grasso will be forced to constantly be aware of level changes, which can disrupt her striking rhythm and prevent her from establishing the volume game she needs to succeed.
Namajunas combines technical striking with functional wrestling and proven submission ability (5 career subs), creating a complete mixed martial artist who can win fights in multiple ways. Her ability to switch stances, vary attacks, and threaten on multiple levels creates constant problems for opponents, as they can never fully commit to defending one aspect of her game without leaving themselves vulnerable to another. This versatility has been evident throughout her career, from her striking-based victories over Joanna Jędrzejczyk to her submission finishes against opponents like Paige VanZant. The large cage (30ft) at T-Mobile Arena amplifies her footwork advantage significantly, allowing her to control distance and timing throughout the fight while using the extra space to create angles and escape routes. Rose's ability to seamlessly transition between striking and grappling makes her particularly difficult to gameplan against, as she can adapt her approach based on what's working in the moment. Her submission game, while not as active as some grapplers, is opportunistic and dangerous, with her 5 career submissions coming at critical moments in fights. This complete skill set allows Namajunas to dictate where the fight takes place and how it unfolds, forcing opponents to constantly adjust their approach and preventing them from settling into a rhythm.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Grasso can close distance and force pocket exchanges, her higher volume (4.19 vs 3.60 SLpM) could overwhelm Rose's more measured approach, creating a scenario where the Mexican fighter's relentless output becomes the deciding factor. Namajunas thrives at range with movement, using her footwork and angles to create openings while avoiding damage; sustained infighting favors the Mexican boxer's relentless output and body work. In close quarters, Grasso's ability to string together combinations becomes more effective, as Rose's defensive movement is limited by the proximity. The Mexican fighter's body work is particularly dangerous in these exchanges, as repeated body shots can slow Rose's movement and make her more stationary, which plays into Grasso's hands. If Grasso can trap Namajunas against the fence or in the center of the octagon and force extended exchanges, her volume advantage becomes overwhelming. Rose's counter-striking game is less effective in the pocket, where she doesn't have the space to create angles and reset, making her more vulnerable to Grasso's combinations. The key for Grasso is to cut off the cage effectively and prevent Rose from circling out, forcing her into the type of fight where volume trumps precision.
Rose's tendency toward tactical, measured performances can occasionally result in low-output rounds that leave her vulnerable to losing close decisions. If she becomes too passive—similar to her approach in some strawweight bouts where she focused more on defense than offense—Grasso's higher volume could win close rounds on the scorecards. This was evident in Rose's second fight against Carla Esparza, where her overly cautious approach resulted in a low-volume performance that cost her the title. Rose must maintain enough activity to clearly win rounds, not just avoid losing them, which means she needs to balance her defensive excellence with sufficient offensive output. In a 3-round fight, every round matters significantly, and if Rose allows Grasso to outwork her in even one round, it could be the difference between victory and defeat. The American needs to find the right balance between her tactical, defensive approach and maintaining enough volume to clearly win rounds on the scorecards. Her 3.60 SLpM output, while lower than Grasso's, can be sufficient if combined with effective takedowns and control time, but she cannot afford to have rounds where her output drops too low, as judges tend to reward activity and volume in close rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Rose should utilize her superior footwork to circle, change angles, and avoid getting cornered, using the 30ft cage to her full advantage. Her lateral movement and angle changes are key to neutralizing Grasso's pressure boxing, as she can create openings while avoiding the Mexican's combinations. Low kicks to disrupt Grasso's base are essential, as they can slow her forward movement and make her more hesitant to press forward aggressively. Combined with jabs and feints, these low kicks will frustrate the Mexican's attempts to close distance and force her to reset repeatedly. The 30ft cage provides ample room for this approach—she should use every inch, constantly moving and resetting to prevent Grasso from establishing her rhythm. Rose's ability to switch stances adds another layer of complexity, as she can attack from different angles and keep Grasso guessing about her next move. Her feints are particularly effective, as they can draw reactions from Grasso that create openings for counters or takedowns. The key is to maintain constant movement while staying active enough to score points, finding the balance between defensive movement and offensive output that has made her successful throughout her career.
Mix in 1-2 takedowns per round when Grasso overcommits on punches, using her forward pressure and commitment to strikes as opportunities for level changes. These takedowns don't need to lead to significant damage—control time and position changes break Grasso's rhythm and add scoring opportunities that judges consistently reward. The threat alone keeps Grasso guessing and opens up striking counters, as she'll be hesitant to commit fully to her combinations if she's constantly worried about takedowns. Rose's ability to chain takedown attempts together is particularly valuable, as she can use failed shots to set up subsequent attempts or create openings for strikes. Her 50% takedown accuracy means that even if she doesn't complete every attempt, the threat forces Grasso to defend, which disrupts her striking rhythm. Once on the ground, Rose should focus on maintaining top position and landing short strikes rather than going for submissions, as control time is what wins rounds. The psychological impact of these takedowns cannot be understated, as they force Grasso to constantly be aware of level changes, which can make her more hesitant and less effective with her volume striking. The key is timing—Rose should look for takedowns when Grasso is most committed to her strikes, using her forward momentum against her.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon at T-Mobile Arena provides significant space for Namajunas' movement-based game, creating an environment that fundamentally favors her style over Grasso's pressure boxing approach. Rose can utilize lateral footwork, angle changes, and feints to avoid Grasso's pressure boxing, using the extra space to create escape routes and reset opportunities that wouldn't be available in a smaller cage. The large cage makes it more difficult for Grasso to corner her opponent and force the pocket exchanges she needs to maximize her volume advantage. With more room to maneuver, Namajunas can circle away from Grasso's pressure, reset at optimal distance, and avoid getting trapped against the fence where the Mexican fighter's combinations become most dangerous. For Grasso to succeed, she must cut off the cage effectively and not chase—controlled pressure with smart angle cuts is essential to neutralize Rose's footwork advantage. The Mexican fighter needs to use intelligent footwork to limit Rose's escape routes, particularly along the fence where she can trap Namajunas and unload combinations. However, the 30ft cage provides Rose with multiple escape routes, making it significantly more difficult for Grasso to implement her pressure game effectively. The large cage also benefits Namajunas' takedown game, as she has more space to set up level changes and create angles for takedown attempts without getting trapped in corners. This spatial advantage compounds over three rounds, as Rose can maintain her movement-based approach without worrying about gassing, while Grasso must work harder to close distance and maintain pressure.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The striking duel presents an interesting contrast: Grasso holds the volume advantage (4.19 vs 3.60 SLpM, a 16.4% differential) while Rose maintains superior defensive discipline (63% vs 58% StrDef, a 5-percentage-point advantage). This creates a dynamic where Grasso's high output meets Rose's defensive excellence, with the outcome depending on whether volume or precision wins out. However, Rose's 1.49 TD/15 vs Grasso's 0.44 represents a massive 3.4x wrestling differential that fundamentally shifts fight control and creates a multidimensional threat that Grasso's boxing-centric approach struggles to match. Combined with Rose's superior TDAcc (50% vs 40%) and TDDef (62% vs 55%), the American can dictate where this fight takes place, forcing Grasso to constantly be aware of takedown threats which disrupts her striking rhythm. In a 3-round contest, Rose's ability to mix takedowns with precise striking creates a complete game that Grasso's one-dimensional boxing approach cannot fully neutralize. The statistical advantages compound: Rose's higher takedown volume, better accuracy, and superior defense create a wrestling advantage that extends beyond mere numbers—it fundamentally changes how the fight unfolds. When Rose threatens takedowns, Grasso must defend, which opens up striking opportunities. When Rose strikes, Grasso must respect the takedown threat, which limits her offensive commitment. This creates a constant guessing game that favors the more versatile fighter. The 3-round format also benefits Rose, as she can push her wrestling pace without worrying about cardio, making her takedown threat even more potent.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical factors will determine the outcome of this fight, each representing a fundamental battle that will shape how the contest unfolds. First, cage control vs footwork: If Grasso can corner Rose and maintain pocket exchanges, her volume advantage materializes and she can overwhelm Namajunas with relentless combinations. However, Rose's superior footwork and the 30ft cage make this difficult to achieve, as she can circle away and reset at optimal distance. The battle for cage control will be constant, with Grasso trying to cut off angles and trap Rose, while Namajunas uses lateral movement to create space and escape routes. Second, takedown defense: Grasso's 55% TDDef will be under constant pressure from Rose's 1.49 TD/15, and if she can't defend effectively, she'll spend significant time on her back where her boxing advantage is neutralized. The Mexican fighter must maintain good posture and hip positioning throughout, as even one successful takedown per round can swing the scoring in Rose's favor. Third, tactical activity level: Rose's tendency toward measured, tactical performances can sometimes result in low-output rounds that leave her vulnerable to losing close decisions. The deciding factor may be whether Rose maintains enough offensive activity—her tactical approach can sometimes result in close rounds that Grasso's volume steals on the scorecards. Rose must find the balance between her defensive excellence and maintaining sufficient output to clearly win rounds, as judges tend to reward activity and volume in close rounds. If she becomes too passive, Grasso's volume could win rounds even if Rose lands the cleaner shots.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Rose Namajunas by Decision (39% probability), achieved through superior defense, strategic takedowns, and technical striking from range. This path represents Rose's optimal gameplan execution, where she controls distance with footwork, mixes in 1-2 takedowns per round to accumulate control time, and lands precise counters while avoiding Grasso's volume. Her defensive excellence allows her to avoid accumulating damage while her wrestling threat disrupts Grasso's rhythm, creating a scoring framework that judges consistently reward. Rose's finish paths include KO/TKO (9%) via precision counters when Grasso overcommits on combinations, leaving herself open to fight-ending shots. Her submission path (12%) involves capitalizing on scrambles and positional errors, using her proven BJJ skills to secure fight-ending submissions. Grasso's primary win condition is Decision (28%) through relentless volume, where her 4.19 SLpM output overwhelms Rose's more measured approach and wins rounds on activity. Her KO/TKO path (8%) requires accumulative body work and head shots that gradually break down Rose's defense, while her Submission path (4%) is opportunistic, capitalizing on Rose's mistakes in scrambles. The fight has a 67% probability of going the distance, reflecting both fighters' durability and the technical nature of the matchup. The 3-round format also increases the likelihood of a decision, as neither fighter needs to pace themselves for five rounds, allowing them to push harder without worrying about gassing.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 39% | Fair: +156
GOOD VALUE
Model: 12% | Fair: +733
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 67% | Fair: -203
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues wrestling differential – Rose's 3.4x TD advantage shifts fight control significantly.
- • Volume bias – Markets may overweight Grasso's higher output without factoring defensive disparity.
- • Large cage factor – 30ft octagon amplifies Namajunas' footwork advantage more than priced.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alexa Grasso
Primary path via volume boxing and pressure
Accumulative damage via body work
Opportunistic finish if Rose makes errors
💥Outcome Distribution - Rose Namajunas
Primary path via tactical control and wrestling
Precision counters when Grasso overcommits
Capitalizing on scrambles with BJJ
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Alexa Grasso
- • First 5-7 minutes: Highest volume boxing equity.
- • Cage cutting: Corner Rose and force pocket exchanges.
- • Body work: Slow Rose's movement with accumulative damage.
🎯Progressive Control - Rose Namajunas
- • Movement & angles: Use 30ft cage to avoid cornering.
- • Strategic takedowns: 1-2 per round to break rhythm.
- • Tactical activity: Maintain enough output to win rounds clearly.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear edge via defense and wrestling mix in favorable conditions
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior striking defense (63% vs 58%)
- • Significant wrestling volume advantage (3.4x TD rate)
- • Large cage favors movement-based game
- • Better recent form and momentum
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Grasso's volume could steal close rounds
- • Rose's occasional low-output performances
- • Submission threat if Rose makes scramble errors
🏁Executive Summary
Rose Namajunas enters this fight with clear technical advantages that should allow her to control the pace and location of the contest, creating a strategic framework that favors her multidimensional skill set over Grasso's more one-dimensional boxing approach. Her 63% striking defense, which significantly outpaces Grasso's 58%, creates a defensive barrier that makes her extremely difficult to hit cleanly, while her 1.49 TD/15 (compared to Grasso's 0.44) represents a massive 3.4x wrestling differential that fundamentally shifts fight control. This combination creates a multidimensional threat that Grasso's volume boxing approach struggles to neutralize, as the Mexican fighter must constantly be aware of takedown threats while trying to implement her high-volume striking game. The 30-foot cage at T-Mobile Arena amplifies Rose's footwork advantage significantly, providing ample space for her lateral movement and angle changes while making it difficult for Grasso to corner her and force the pocket exchanges she needs to maximize her volume advantage. The large cage also benefits Namajunas' takedown game, as she has more space to set up level changes and create angles for takedown attempts without getting trapped in corners. While Grasso's 4.19 SLpM volume presents a threat in close rounds, particularly if she can force pocket exchanges and overwhelm Rose with combinations, Namajunas' ability to mix takedowns with precise striking should accumulate enough scoring to secure a decision victory. The statistical advantages compound over three rounds: Rose's superior defense means she avoids accumulating damage, her wrestling threat disrupts Grasso's rhythm, and her tactical striking from range scores points while minimizing risk. The 3-round format also benefits Rose, as she can push her wrestling pace without worrying about cardio, making her takedown threat even more potent. Grasso's path to victory requires her to cut off the cage effectively, maintain constant pressure, and defend takedowns successfully—a difficult combination to achieve against an opponent with Rose's footwork and wrestling ability.
Prediction: Rose Namajunas by Decision most likely (39% probability) through superior defense, strategic wrestling, and tactical striking. This outcome represents Rose's optimal gameplan execution, where she controls distance with footwork, mixes in 1-2 takedowns per round to accumulate control time, and lands precise counters while avoiding Grasso's volume. Her defensive excellence allows her to avoid accumulating damage while her wrestling threat disrupts Grasso's rhythm, creating a scoring framework that judges consistently reward. The fight has a 67% chance of going the distance, reflecting both fighters' durability and the technical nature of the matchup. Grasso's best path is volume boxing (28% decision probability), where her 4.19 SLpM output overwhelms Rose's more measured approach and wins rounds on activity, but Rose's defensive prowess and wrestling mix should prove decisive in what projects as a technical, chess-match style contest. The American's ability to dictate where the fight takes place, combined with her superior defensive discipline, creates a strategic advantage that should allow her to control the pace and location of the contest throughout all three rounds.
The key battle areas that will determine the outcome include cage control vs footwork (where Rose's movement and the 30ft cage favor her style), takedown defense (where Grasso's 55% TDDef will be under constant pressure from Rose's 1.49 TD/15), and tactical activity level (where Rose must maintain sufficient output to clearly win rounds rather than just avoiding losing them). If Grasso can corner Rose and maintain pocket exchanges, her volume advantage materializes and she can overwhelm Namajunas with relentless combinations. However, Rose's superior footwork and the large cage make this difficult to achieve, as she can circle away and reset at optimal distance. The deciding factor may be whether Rose maintains enough offensive activity—her tactical approach can sometimes result in close rounds that Grasso's volume steals on the scorecards, but if she finds the right balance between defensive excellence and offensive output, her complete skill set should prove decisive in this matchup.