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3 Rounds • Men's Middleweight Bout

Gerald Meerschaert vs Kyle Daukaus

UFC 322

Saturday, November 15, 2025

Fighter • Odds source: BetOnline
...
Submission finisher
Fighter • Odds source: BetOnline
...
Front-headlock chains
Gerald Meerschaert vs Kyle Daukaus - UFC 322

Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles

Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.

Gerald Meerschaert

Gerald Meerschaert

"GM3"

37-20-0

Age:
37Veteran
Height:
6'1"-1" shorter
Reach:
77"+1" advantage
Leg Reach:
0"

Fighter Metrics

Total UFC Fights
24
UFC Record
12-12-0
Current Streak
Win Rate
65%
Finish Rate
95%
Avg Fight Time
8:47
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Kyle Daukaus

Kyle Daukaus

"The D’Arce Knight"

16-4-0

Age:
30Prime
Height:
6'2"+1" advantage
Reach:
76"-1" shorter
Leg Reach:
0"

Fighter Metrics

Total UFC Fights
9
UFC Record
4-4-0 (1 NC)
Current Streak
Win Rate
80%
Finish Rate
81%
Avg Fight Time
8:57
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution

Last 5 Fights - Gerald Meerschaert

DateOpponentResultMethod
2025-08-16Michał OleksiejczukLTKO - Punches (R1, 3:03)
2025-04-05Brad TavaresLDecision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00)
2024-11-09Reinier de RidderLSubmission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R3, 1:44)
2024-08-24Edmen ShahbazyanWSubmission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R2, 4:12)
2024-03-16Bryan BarberenaWTechnical Submission - Face Crank (R2, 4:23)

Last 5 Fights - Kyle Daukaus

DateOpponentResultMethod
2025-08-23Michel PereiraWKO - Punches and Elbows (R1, 0:43)
2024-06-14Keanan PatershuckWKO - Punches (R1, 1:24)
2024-02-09Sean Connor FallonWSubmission - Brabo Choke (R3, 3:45)
2023-09-02Gregg EllisWDecision - Unanimous (R4, 5:00)
2023-06-16Robert GidronWSubmission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 4:59)

Technical Analysis

Technical Score

43/10050.5/100

📊Detailed Analysis Summary

🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics

In a large 30‑ft cage, Kyle Daukaus benefits from extra space to sprawl, circle, and keep first contact off the fence. Gerald Meerschaert thrives when compressing to the barrier; success rises as clinch time and scrambles increase.

🎯Technical Breakdown

The accuracy (52% vs 45%) and TD defense (82% vs 42%) gaps tilt round‑winning toward Kyle Daukaus. Gerald Meerschaert carries higher submission conversion when he finds front‑headlocks or half‑guard transitions. Minute‑by‑minute, defense and shot selection favor Kyle Daukaus; finishing danger spikes for Gerald Meerschaert once grappling sequences occur.

🧩Key Battle Areas

Early space management (R1‑R2) where Kyle Daukaus can bank minutes; fence exchanges where Gerald Meerschaert can convert entries into front‑headlocks; scramble cleanliness for Kyle Daukaus to avoid giving necks during resets.

🔮Victory Scenarios

Kyle Daukaus: decision lanes via range control and sprawl‑and‑brawl; opportunistic front‑headlock submissions if GM3 shoots long. Gerald Meerschaert: submission lanes from fence starts, counter‑shots into guillotines/D’Arce, or late scramble chaos.

🏁Final Prediction

Minutes favor Kyle Daukaus; moments favor Gerald Meerschaert. Over three rounds in a big cage, the steadier accuracy and TDD lean 57–43 toward Kyle Daukaus, with Gerald Meerschaert live to flip outcomes whenever extended scrambles or front‑headlocks emerge.

Gerald
Kyle
Kyle advantage: 7.5%

Cardio Score

41.7/10051.6/100

📊Detailed Analysis Summary

🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics

In a large 30‑ft cage, Kyle Daukaus benefits from extra space to sprawl, circle, and keep first contact off the fence. Gerald Meerschaert thrives when compressing to the barrier; success rises as clinch time and scrambles increase.

🎯Technical Breakdown

The accuracy (52% vs 45%) and TD defense (82% vs 42%) gaps tilt round‑winning toward Kyle Daukaus. Gerald Meerschaert carries higher submission conversion when he finds front‑headlocks or half‑guard transitions. Minute‑by‑minute, defense and shot selection favor Kyle Daukaus; finishing danger spikes for Gerald Meerschaert once grappling sequences occur.

🧩Key Battle Areas

Early space management (R1‑R2) where Kyle Daukaus can bank minutes; fence exchanges where Gerald Meerschaert can convert entries into front‑headlocks; scramble cleanliness for Kyle Daukaus to avoid giving necks during resets.

🔮Victory Scenarios

Kyle Daukaus: decision lanes via range control and sprawl‑and‑brawl; opportunistic front‑headlock submissions if GM3 shoots long. Gerald Meerschaert: submission lanes from fence starts, counter‑shots into guillotines/D’Arce, or late scramble chaos.

🏁Final Prediction

Minutes favor Kyle Daukaus; moments favor Gerald Meerschaert. Over three rounds in a big cage, the steadier accuracy and TDD lean 57–43 toward Kyle Daukaus, with Gerald Meerschaert live to flip outcomes whenever extended scrambles or front‑headlocks emerge.

Gerald
Kyle
Kyle advantage: 9.9%

Overall Rating

42.35/10051.05/100

📊Detailed Analysis Summary

🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics

In a large 30‑ft cage, Kyle Daukaus benefits from extra space to sprawl, circle, and keep first contact off the fence. Gerald Meerschaert thrives when compressing to the barrier; success rises as clinch time and scrambles increase.

🎯Technical Breakdown

The accuracy (52% vs 45%) and TD defense (82% vs 42%) gaps tilt round‑winning toward Kyle Daukaus. Gerald Meerschaert carries higher submission conversion when he finds front‑headlocks or half‑guard transitions. Minute‑by‑minute, defense and shot selection favor Kyle Daukaus; finishing danger spikes for Gerald Meerschaert once grappling sequences occur.

🧩Key Battle Areas

Early space management (R1‑R2) where Kyle Daukaus can bank minutes; fence exchanges where Gerald Meerschaert can convert entries into front‑headlocks; scramble cleanliness for Kyle Daukaus to avoid giving necks during resets.

🔮Victory Scenarios

Kyle Daukaus: decision lanes via range control and sprawl‑and‑brawl; opportunistic front‑headlock submissions if GM3 shoots long. Gerald Meerschaert: submission lanes from fence starts, counter‑shots into guillotines/D’Arce, or late scramble chaos.

🏁Final Prediction

Minutes favor Kyle Daukaus; moments favor Gerald Meerschaert. Over three rounds in a big cage, the steadier accuracy and TDD lean 57–43 toward Kyle Daukaus, with Gerald Meerschaert live to flip outcomes whenever extended scrambles or front‑headlocks emerge.

Gerald
Kyle
Kyle advantage: 8.7%
📊 Technical Score

Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (48.5 vs 50.0) and Grappling Composite (37.5 vs 51.0). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.

💪 Cardio Score

Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.

🎯 Overall Rating

Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.

Striking Composite

48.5/10050/100

📊Detailed Analysis Summary

🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics

In a large 30‑ft cage, Kyle Daukaus benefits from extra space to sprawl, circle, and keep first contact off the fence. Gerald Meerschaert thrives when compressing to the barrier; success rises as clinch time and scrambles increase.

🎯Technical Breakdown

The accuracy (52% vs 45%) and TD defense (82% vs 42%) gaps tilt round‑winning toward Kyle Daukaus. Gerald Meerschaert carries higher submission conversion when he finds front‑headlocks or half‑guard transitions. Minute‑by‑minute, defense and shot selection favor Kyle Daukaus; finishing danger spikes for Gerald Meerschaert once grappling sequences occur.

🧩Key Battle Areas

Early space management (R1‑R2) where Kyle Daukaus can bank minutes; fence exchanges where Gerald Meerschaert can convert entries into front‑headlocks; scramble cleanliness for Kyle Daukaus to avoid giving necks during resets.

🔮Victory Scenarios

Kyle Daukaus: decision lanes via range control and sprawl‑and‑brawl; opportunistic front‑headlock submissions if GM3 shoots long. Gerald Meerschaert: submission lanes from fence starts, counter‑shots into guillotines/D’Arce, or late scramble chaos.

🏁Final Prediction

Minutes favor Kyle Daukaus; moments favor Gerald Meerschaert. Over three rounds in a big cage, the steadier accuracy and TDD lean 57–43 toward Kyle Daukaus, with Gerald Meerschaert live to flip outcomes whenever extended scrambles or front‑headlocks emerge.

Gerald
Kyle
Kyle advantage: 1.5%

Grappling Composite

37.5/10051/100

📊Detailed Analysis Summary

🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics

In a large 30‑ft cage, Kyle Daukaus benefits from extra space to sprawl, circle, and keep first contact off the fence. Gerald Meerschaert thrives when compressing to the barrier; success rises as clinch time and scrambles increase.

🎯Technical Breakdown

The accuracy (52% vs 45%) and TD defense (82% vs 42%) gaps tilt round‑winning toward Kyle Daukaus. Gerald Meerschaert carries higher submission conversion when he finds front‑headlocks or half‑guard transitions. Minute‑by‑minute, defense and shot selection favor Kyle Daukaus; finishing danger spikes for Gerald Meerschaert once grappling sequences occur.

🧩Key Battle Areas

Early space management (R1‑R2) where Kyle Daukaus can bank minutes; fence exchanges where Gerald Meerschaert can convert entries into front‑headlocks; scramble cleanliness for Kyle Daukaus to avoid giving necks during resets.

🔮Victory Scenarios

Kyle Daukaus: decision lanes via range control and sprawl‑and‑brawl; opportunistic front‑headlock submissions if GM3 shoots long. Gerald Meerschaert: submission lanes from fence starts, counter‑shots into guillotines/D’Arce, or late scramble chaos.

🏁Final Prediction

Minutes favor Kyle Daukaus; moments favor Gerald Meerschaert. Over three rounds in a big cage, the steadier accuracy and TDD lean 57–43 toward Kyle Daukaus, with Gerald Meerschaert live to flip outcomes whenever extended scrambles or front‑headlocks emerge.

Gerald
Kyle
Kyle advantage: 13.5%
🥊 Striking Composite

Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.

🤼 Grappling Composite

Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.

Technical Radar Comparison

Metrics Legend
SLpM: Strikes/Min
StrAcc: Strike Accuracy
StrDef: Strike Defense
TD15: Takedowns/15min
TDAcc: TD Accuracy
TDDef: TD Defense
SubPer15: Subs/15min
Gerald Meerschaert
VS
Kyle Daukaus

Detailed Statistical Comparison

Strikes Landed/Min
Advantage:Kyle (+6.6%)
3.02 per min3.22 per min
Gerald
Kyle
Difference: 0.20 per min
Striking Accuracy
Advantage:Kyle (+15.6%)
45%52%
Gerald
Kyle
Difference: 7.00%
Striking Defense
Advantage:Gerald (+26.2%)
53%42%
Gerald
Kyle
Difference: 11.00%
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Advantage:Gerald (+18.7%)
3.49 per min2.94 per min
Gerald
Kyle
Difference: 0.55 per min
Takedowns/15min
Advantage:Kyle (+15.8%)
1.83 per 15min2.12 per 15min
Gerald
Kyle
Difference: 0.29 per 15min
Takedown Accuracy
Advantage:Gerald (+20.0%)
30%25%
Gerald
Kyle
Difference: 5.00%
Takedown Defense
Advantage:Kyle (+95.2%)
42%82%
Gerald
Kyle
Difference: 40.00%
Submissions/15min
Advantage:Kyle (+35.7%)
1.4 per 15min1.9 per 15min
Gerald
Kyle
Difference: 0.50 per 15min

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

🏆 Gerald Meerschaert Key Advantages

🧠Opportunistic Submissions
11 UFC sub wins

Front‑headlock and half‑guard chains; converts scrambles into finishes at a high clip.

🛠️Submission Activity
1.4 / 15

High conversion once control is established; guillotine/arm‑triangle series end fights.

⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios

🛡️Elite Takedown Defense

Daukaus’ 82% TDD blunts entries in space; big cage reduces fence starts.

📏Long-Range Minutes

In space, Daukaus’ 52% accuracy and lower SApM favor minute‑winning.

📋 Likely Gameplan

🔗Fence First

Force clinches to shorten distance; chain to front‑headlock if sprawled.

🎯Scramble Triggers

Create exits and re‑entries to hunt necks; avoid long center‑cage exchanges.

🚀 Kyle Daukaus Key Advantages

🛡️Takedown Defense
82% TDD

Decides when/if the fight hits the mat; ideal in a 30‑ft cage.

🎯Striking Accuracy
52%

Cleaner selection at range with lower SApM (2.94) supports round‑winning.

⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios

🤼‍♂️Scramble Chaos

GM3 converts messy transitions into submissions; keep positions clean.

🧷Front‑Headlock Chains

Getting stuck in front‑headlocks can flip rounds quickly against GM3.

📋 Likely Gameplan

📐Distance Management

Keep it at range, sprawl early, circle off before fence engagements.

🧱Position over Submission

Minimize risk in grappling; avoid giving GM3 the scramble looks he wants.

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis

Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis

43%
Gerald Meerschaert Win Probability
Largest threat: submission conversions
57%
Kyle Daukaus Win Probability
Wins minutes with TDD and accuracy

💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market

Detailed value assessment in the betting market

📊Market Odds

Implied Probability: N/A
Implied Probability: N/A

🤖Analytical Model

Kyle Daukaus-133
Model Probability: 57%
Gerald Meerschaert+133
Model Probability: 43%

💎Value Opportunities

⭐⭐⭐
MAXIMUM VALUE
Meerschaert by Submission

Model: 33% | Market: varies

PROBABILITY:
33%
⭐⭐
GOOD VALUE
Daukaus Moneyline (−133 fair)

Model: 57% | Market: compare best line

FAIR LINE:
-133
SLIGHT VALUE
Under 2.5 Rounds

Model: 58% | Market: varies

EDGE:
+8–12%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
  • Overweights GM3’s vulnerability — ignores that submissions, not KOs, are his primary weapon.
  • Undervalues Daukaus’ TDD — 82% in a big cage materially lowers GM3’s access.
  • Accuracy gap — 52% vs 45% can bank minutes even at low volume.

🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis

100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data

💥Outcome Distribution - Kyle Daukaus

By Decision28%

Minute‑winning at range

By KO/TKO9%

Clean counters early

By Submission20%

Front‑headlock chains

🏆Outcome Distribution - Gerald Meerschaert

By Submission33%

Primary finishing route

By Decision6%

Lower minute‑winning profile

By KO/TKO4%

Less likely but present

Fight Timeline Analysis

R1
Advantage: Kyle Daukaus
Sprawl/counter lanes
R2
Advantage: Even
GM3 scrambles rise
R3
Advantage: Gerald Meerschaert
Late submission equity
R4
Advantage: —
R5
Advantage: —
Window of Opportunity - Kyle Daukaus
  • First 7–8 minutes: Best chance to bank minutes at range.
  • Sprawl first: Cross‑face immediately into exits.
  • Avoid clinch stalls: Circle before fence contact.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Gerald Meerschaert
  • Scramble equity: Later entries increase sub chances.
  • Fence usage: Compress space to trigger grappling.
  • Risk trade‑offs: Accept some strikes to access necks.

🎯 Final Confidence Assessment

Confidence level and uncertainty factors

7/10

Confidence Level

Stable edges (TDD, accuracy) vs live sub volatility

Supporting Factors

  • • 82% TDD for Kyle Daukaus
  • • 52% vs 45% striking accuracy gap
  • • Lower SApM for Kyle Daukaus (2.94)
  • Gerald Meerschaert elite submission conversions

⚠️Risk Factors

  • Gerald Meerschaert submission‑or‑bust danger
  • Kyle Daukaus 42% strike defense
  • • Scramble volatility
  • • Middleweight variance

🏁Executive Summary

Kyle Daukaus carries the steadier round‑winning profile via elite takedown defense and cleaner accuracy, while Gerald Meerschaert’s submission chains remain the single most dangerous weapon. In a 30‑ft cage over three rounds, the model leans 57–43 toward Kyle Daukaus, with Gerald Meerschaert’s best equity tied to scramble‑generated submissions.

Prediction: Kyle Daukaus by Decision or Gerald Meerschaert by Submission.

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