Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer
Men's Middleweight Bout Bout • UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer
Saturday, March 28, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Israel Adesanya
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Joe Pyfer
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Israel Adesanya
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 01, 2025 | Nassourdine Imavov | L | KO/TKO (Overhand Right & Ground Punches) (2, 0:30) |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Dricus Du Plessis | L | SUB (Rear Naked Choke) (4, 3:38) |
| Sep 09, 2023 | Sean Strickland | L | U-DEC (5, 5:00) |
| Apr 08, 2023 | Alex Pereira | W | KO/TKO (Counter Right) (2, 4:21) |
| Nov 12, 2022 | Alex Pereira | L | KO/TKO (Punches - Standing TKO) (5, 2:01) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Joe Pyfer
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 04, 2025 | Abus Magomedov | W | SUB (Rear Naked Choke) (2, 1:46) |
| Jun 07, 2025 | Kelvin Gastelum | W | U-DEC (3, 5:00) |
| Jun 29, 2024 | Marc-Andre Barriault | W | KO/TKO (Overhand Right) (1, 1:25) |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Jack Hermansson | L | U-DEC (5, 5:00) |
| Oct 07, 2023 | Abdul Razak Alhassan | W | SUB (Arm Triangle) (2, 2:05) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Israel Adesanya Key Advantages
Adesanya's 80" wingspan against Pyfer's 75" creates a devastating 5-inch reach advantage -- one of the most significant reach differentials in a middleweight main event. Combined with a 2-inch height edge and 4-inch leg reach advantage, Adesanya can land clean shots from a distance where Pyfer simply cannot touch him. Teep kicks, leg kicks, and jabs can be deployed without fear of retaliation, making range management the fundamental structural advantage of this fight.
Adesanya lands more frequently (4.02 SLpM) and with better accuracy (48% vs 43%) than Pyfer. In a 5-round fight at distance, this cumulative edge is significant -- approximately 100+ significant strikes over 25 minutes vs Pyfer's ~87. Adesanya's 30% leg strike rate creates a hidden x-factor: systematic calf and inside leg kicks can degrade Pyfer's base, reduce his forward pressure, and take away the explosiveness that makes him dangerous.
Adesanya has fought in 9 five-round fights, including championship title fights against Whittaker, Romero, Vettori, and Pereira. Pyfer has fought just one 5-round fight -- a loss to Hermansson. In championship rounds, Adesanya's pacing and experience create a decisive edge. His counter-striking artistry against aggressive chargers (Costa R2 TKO, Whittaker R2 KO, Pereira II R2 KO) is perfectly designed to punish Pyfer's forward-pressure, overhand-heavy style.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Adesanya has been stopped twice in his last four fights (Imavov R2 TKO, Pereira I R5 TKO), revealing diminished durability at 36. His striking defense has declined from 60%+ to 55%, and he's now absorbing 3.20 strikes per minute. Pyfer carries devastating one-shot KO power that has ended 9 fights by KO/TKO. If Pyfer lands clean with his overhand right early, Adesanya's compromised chin may not hold up.
Adesanya has historically struggled against relentless forward pressure fighters (Strickland loss, du Plessis loss). Pyfer's aggressive, come-forward style with 3.47 SLpM output could collapse Adesanya's preferred fighting distance and force exchanges in the pocket where Pyfer's power advantage is maximized. If the cage cutting is effective, Adesanya's counter-striking becomes less effective as he runs out of space to create angles.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Adesanya should utilize his massive reach advantage to control distance with jabs, teeps, and low kicks. His primary goal is to keep Pyfer at the end of his punches where Pyfer cannot land. Systematic calf kicks and inside leg kicks target Pyfer's lead leg, degrading his forward movement and explosive power over time. By establishing the jab early, Adesanya can set up feints that create counter-striking opportunities when Pyfer inevitably lunges forward.
Adesanya's elite counter-striking should be deployed against Pyfer's predictable forward entries. When Pyfer loads up on the overhand right, Adesanya can slip and counter with check hooks, uppercuts, and straight rights down the pipe. Moving laterally, using footwork to circle away from Pyfer's power hand, and timing counters on Pyfer's entries is a proven blueprint -- exactly how Adesanya finished Costa, Whittaker, and Pereira in their rematch.
🚀 Joe Pyfer Key Advantages
Pyfer's 9 KO/TKO victories from 15 wins represent a 60% KO rate with legitimate fight-ending power in both hands. His overhand right is a fight-changing weapon that has flatlined Barriault in 85 seconds and hurt multiple UFC veterans. Against an Adesanya whose chin has shown cracks in recent fights (TKO'd by Imavov and Pereira), Pyfer needs only one clean connection to end the fight. His willingness to sit down on punches and commit fully to power shots creates constant threat.
At 29, Pyfer is in his athletic prime and riding a 3-fight win streak with diverse finishes (SUB, DEC, KO). His cardio and durability remain untested at peak levels, while Adesanya at 36 has shown signs of physical decline. Pyfer's aggressive style and improving grappling (1.23 TD/15min, 1.00 Sub/15min) add wrestling wrinkles that Adesanya's 76% TDD must contend with. The momentum and confidence from consecutive wins create a dangerous mindset against a former champion potentially on the decline.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Adesanya effectively manages distance and uses his 5-inch reach advantage to control range with jabs and teeps, Pyfer may never get close enough to land his power shots. Pyfer's 43% striking accuracy drops further against long-range counter-strikers, and his limited footwork makes closing distance against a mobile fighter extremely difficult. In the large 30-foot cage, Adesanya has ample room to circle and reset, potentially turning this into a frustrating point fighting contest.
Pyfer's average fight duration of 8:20 suggests he's built for early finishes, not deep-water battles. His only 5-round fight was a loss to Hermansson where he visibly faded. Adesanya averages 17:35 per fight with extensive 5-round experience. If Pyfer can't find the finish in the first 2 rounds, his output and power may diminish significantly in rounds 3-5, allowing Adesanya to coast to a decision victory on his jab and leg kicks alone.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Pyfer's path to victory requires relentless forward pressure to collapse Adesanya's preferred fighting distance. Using feints, head movement, and lateral cuts to close the 5-inch reach gap is essential. Pyfer should target body shots to slow Adesanya's movement and use cage-cutting footwork to trap the former champion along the fence where his counter-striking becomes less effective. Every exchange must be initiated from close range where Pyfer's power advantage is maximized.
With 80% of Pyfer's wins coming by finish and most occurring in the first two rounds, his best chance lies in finding an early knockout. He should come out aggressively in rounds 1-2, loading up on the overhand right and left hook while Adesanya is still calibrating distance. Mixing in takedown threats (1.23 TD/15min) can create openings in Adesanya's striking defense and prevent the counter-striker from settling into rhythm. The urgency factor is critical -- every round that passes favors Adesanya's experience and pacing.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup — significantly favoring Adesanya's range game and counter-striking approach. His 80-inch reach and 6'4" height give him enormous advantages at distance, where he can utilize jabs, teeps, and leg kicks without retaliation. The larger cage provides ample space for lateral movement and resetting after exchanges, making it harder for Pyfer to corner and pressure. However, if Pyfer can cut the cage effectively and force Adesanya onto the fence, the space advantage diminishes rapidly — and Pyfer's power becomes more threatening in close quarters.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a striking-dominated fight where range control is the decisive factor. Adesanya's 3.79 SLpM with 50% accuracy reflects a precise, counter-striking approach, while Pyfer's 3.47 SLpM with 43% accuracy shows a more volume-based, less accurate style. Adesanya absorbs 3.20 SApM (55% StrDef) compared to Pyfer's 3.52 SApM (54% StrDef) — relatively similar defensive profiles. The key differentiator is Adesanya's 5-inch reach advantage and elite counter-striking timing, which should allow him to outland Pyfer at range. However, Pyfer's 1.13 knockdowns per 15 minutes represents elite fight-ending power that can override technical advantages with a single shot.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: range control vs pressure, chin durability vs power, and pacing over five rounds. Adesanya's ability to maintain distance with his jab and leg kicks is the foundation of his game plan — if Pyfer cannot close the gap, he loses on points. The chin question is paramount: Adesanya has been stopped twice in four fights, and Pyfer carries the exact type of power (overhand right) that has hurt him before. The five-round format heavily favors Adesanya's experience (nine 5-round fights vs Pyfer's one, which was a loss), but only matters if he survives the early storm.
🏁Final Prediction
The two most likely individual outcomes are virtually tied: Adesanya by Decision (28%) through range control, leg kicks, and counter-striking over five rounds, and Pyfer by KO/TKO (28%) via his devastating overhand right connecting on Adesanya's compromised chin. Adesanya's KO/TKO path (22%) becomes viable through counter-striking Pyfer's aggressive entries. Pyfer's submission (10%) and decision (10%) paths add meaningful upset equity. This is a genuine 52-48 toss-up where the outcome depends on which version of Adesanya shows up.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
BEST VALUE
Model: 28% | Fair: +257
GOOD VALUE
Model: 60% | Fair: -150
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 28% | Fair: +257
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Chin uncertainty dominates pricing – Adesanya's recent stoppages inflate Pyfer's KO equity.
- • Reach advantage undervalued – 5-inch reach differential historically decisive at middleweight.
- • Five-round format mispriced – Pyfer's only 5-round fight was a decision loss; experience gap is enormous.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Israel Adesanya
Primary path via range control and counter-striking
Counter-striking on Pyfer\'s aggressive entries
Statistical floor — 0 career submission wins
💥Outcome Distribution - Joe Pyfer
Primary lane via overhand right and power shots
Requires outworking Adesanya over 5 rounds
Evolving grappling vs Adesanya's weak ground game
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Joe Pyfer
- • First 10 minutes: Highest KO equity when power is fresh.
- • Cage cutting: Close distance and trap Adesanya on the fence.
- • Overhand right: Load up on power shots before legs tire.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Israel Adesanya
- • Jab and teep: Establish range and control distance early.
- • Leg kicks: Degrade Pyfer's base and forward movement.
- • Late rounds: Championship experience and pacing create widening advantage.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Genuine toss-up — outcome depends on which Adesanya shows up
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive 5-inch reach and 2-inch height advantage
- • Nine 5-round fights vs Pyfer's one (a loss)
- • Elite counter-striking against aggressive chargers
- • Jab and leg kicks remain effective regardless of age
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Chin degradation — stopped twice in last four fights
- • 3 losses in last 4 fights suggest accelerating decline
- • Pyfer's 1.13 KD/15 is statistically elite power
🏁Executive Summary
This is one of the most genuinely uncertain fights on the card — a true toss-up where compelling arguments exist for both sides. Israel Adesanya's massive physical advantages (80" reach, 6'4" height, 44" leg reach) and elite counter-striking should theoretically allow him to outpoint Joe Pyfer over 5 rounds using jabs, teeps, and leg kicks. His nine 5-round fights dwarf Pyfer's one (a decision loss to Hermansson). However, Adesanya's decline is undeniable — three losses in four fights, two stoppages, and a chin that no longer absorbs punishment. Pyfer's 60% KO rate and 1.13 knockdowns per 15 minutes represent legitimate fight-ending power, and his overhand right is the exact weapon that stopped Adesanya against Imavov.
Prediction: Adesanya by Decision and Pyfer by KO/TKO are virtually tied as the most likely individual outcomes (28% each). The fight's outcome hinges on whether the 36-year-old former champion can maintain distance and avoid Pyfer's power shots long enough for the five-round format to become his ally. Pyfer by KO/TKO at +257 is our best-value play — the fact that our recommended bet is on the fighter we're not picking tells you how close this fight truly is.