Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Wood vs. Keita
Saturday, March 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Nathaniel Wood
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Losene Keita
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Nathaniel Wood
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Jose Delgado | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-22 | Morgan Charrière | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-27 | Daniel Pineda | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-21 | Muhammad Naimov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-22 | Andre Fili | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Losene Keita
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | Ronald Paradeiser | W | TKO - Elbows/Punches (R2, 4:02) |
| 2024-09-21 | Mateusz Legierski | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-20 | Predrag Bogdanović | W | TKO - Body Shot (R2, 4:50) |
| 2024-05-04 | Agy Sardari | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-09 | Niko Samsonidse | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 0:23) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (58.0 vs 45.0) and Grappling Composite (55.0 vs 30.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Nathaniel Wood Key Advantages
Wood's 10 UFC fights (6-4) represent a massive experience differential against Keita's UFC debut. The Londoner has faced elite-level competition including Lerone Murphy, Morgan Charrière, and André Fili, developing an understanding of the octagon's unique dimensions, pacing requirements, and judging criteria that no regional circuit can replicate. This experience allows Wood to manage cage positioning, recognize openings, and maintain composure under the pressure of the UFC spotlight—all factors that debut fighters consistently struggle with.
Wood's composite striking score of 58.0 and grappling composite of 55.0 reflect genuine multi-dimensional capability. His 5.74 SLpM output with 52% accuracy demonstrates high-volume, accurate striking, while his 1.46 TD/15min and 50% takedown accuracy show he can change levels effectively. The 73% takedown defense indicates he can choose where the fight takes place. Against Keita's untested grappling (30.0 composite) and lower striking composite (45.0), Wood has clear technical superiority in every measurable dimension.
Wood's 5.74 strikes landed per minute is an elite output rate that can overwhelm less experienced opponents. Combined with his 11:45 average fight duration, Wood demonstrates the ability to maintain high volume across all three rounds. His pressure-oriented approach forces opponents into reactive positions, something particularly dangerous against a debuting fighter who may struggle with UFC-caliber pacing. Wood's recent wins—a KO of Charrière and decision over Santos—show he can win both by stoppage and on the cards.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Wood absorbs 4.32 strikes per minute—a relatively high rate that becomes dangerous against Keita's knockout power. With 10 KO/TKO wins on his record (62.5% finish rate via KO), Keita carries genuine one-punch stopping power. If Wood gets drawn into firefights rather than using his technical advantages, Keita's explosive power could change the fight in an instant, particularly in the first round when the Belgian is freshest.
Keita's physical tools present a challenge—at 5'8" with 72-inch reach versus Wood's 5'6" and 69-inch reach, the Belgian has a 3-inch reach advantage and 2-inch height advantage. At just 28 years old, Keita brings explosive athleticism that could offset Wood's experience advantage. If the Belgian can use his length and power to keep Wood at range, the Londoner may struggle to implement his pressure gameplan effectively.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Wood should look to establish early pressure using his 5.74 SLpM output to overwhelm Keita with volume. By mixing jabs, hooks, and body shots at high pace, Wood can test Keita's defensive abilities—which are unknown at UFC level. Maintaining consistent forward pressure will prevent Keita from setting his feet and loading up on power shots, neutralizing the Belgian's primary weapon while accumulating scoring strikes.
Wood's 1.46 TD/15min with 50% accuracy should be weaponized against Keita's untested takedown defense. By mixing takedown threats with striking, Wood can create a multi-layered attack that forces Keita to defend multiple threats. In the clinch, Wood's experience against UFC-level grapplers gives him a massive advantage—dirty boxing, trips, and body work in tight spaces are areas where debut fighters typically struggle the most.
🚀 Losene Keita Key Advantages
Keita's 10 KO/TKO victories from 16 wins (62.5%) reveal genuine fight-ending power that translates across all levels of competition. His 81.3% overall finish rate means he rarely goes to the scorecards, with 7 of his wins coming in the first round. This explosive striking ability is his primary equalizer against Wood's experience advantage—one clean shot can negate all of Wood's technical and tactical superiority. The Belgian's power combined with his aggressive style creates constant knockout threat.
Keita's 72-inch reach advantage (vs Wood's 69") combined with his 5'8" height (vs Wood's 5'6") creates meaningful striking advantages at range. At 28 years old versus Wood's 32, Keita brings superior athletic prime and explosiveness. His physical tools allow him to maintain distance with jabs and straight punches while loading up power shots from outside Wood's effective range. In the large 30-foot cage, these advantages become amplified as Keita can use footwork to maintain his preferred distance.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Making his UFC debut against an experienced octagon veteran is one of the most challenging scenarios for any fighter. Keita has zero data at UFC level—no verified striking stats, no takedown defense metrics, no proven ability to handle the pace, pressure, and judging criteria unique to the UFC. Wood's 10 fights of octagon experience creates a significant knowledge gap that regional success simply cannot bridge, particularly against a fighter competing in front of his home crowd.
If the fight reaches the later rounds without an early finish, Keita's path to victory narrows significantly. His 8:30 average fight duration suggests he's accustomed to shorter fights, while Wood's 11:45 average shows comfort in sustained action. In three-round fights where Wood's experience, volume (5.74 SLpM), and grappling ability can be deployed over 15 minutes, Keita's power advantage becomes less decisive as fatigue accumulates and the debuting fighter faces unfamiliar endurance demands.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Keita's optimal strategy involves front-loading damage and hunting for the early knockout, particularly in Round 1 where he has recorded 7 of his stoppage wins. His explosive power and aggressive style should target Wood's tendency to absorb strikes (4.32 SApM), looking for clean power shots that can end the fight before Wood's experience and technical advantages become decisive factors.
Keita should leverage his 3-inch reach advantage to maintain distance and use his jab to keep Wood at range. The 30-foot cage provides ample space for circling and resetting, preventing Wood from closing distance for clinch work or takedowns. By staying at range and loading up power shots, Keita can exploit his physical advantages while avoiding the close- quarters exchanges where Wood's experience becomes most dangerous.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Experience vs Power Dynamic
This matchup fundamentally pits UFC experience against raw athletic power. Wood's 10 UFC fights provide invaluable knowledge of octagon pacing, judging criteria, and high-level competition that Keita simply cannot replicate from regional circuits. The Londoner has faced and beaten fighters at a level Keita has never encountered, including decisive victories over Morgan Charrière and Daniel Pineda. However, Keita's 81.3% finish rate and explosive KO power mean this experience advantage can be nullified in a single moment. The first 5 minutes will be critical—if Wood survives the initial storm, his advantages compound.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The technical gap between these fighters is significant. Wood's composite striking score (58.0) and grappling composite (55.0) both exceed Keita's marks (45.0 and 30.0 respectively). Wood's 5.74 SLpM with 52% accuracy demonstrates elite-level volume and precision, while his 1.46 TD/15min with 50% accuracy and 73% takedown defense show genuine multi-dimensional capability. Keita has no verified UFC statistics, making his true technical level an unknown quantity. Wood's 54% striking defense provides some vulnerability to Keita's power, but his ability to dictate where the fight takes place should mitigate this.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical areas will determine the outcome: early power exchanges vs sustained pressure, grappling transitions vs untested takedown defense, and crowd influence on the debuting fighter. Keita's power is his greatest asset—10 KO/TKOs with 7 in Round 1—but Wood's experience in managing dangerous early moments should help him navigate the storm. If Wood can take the fight to the clinch and ground, Keita's untested grappling (30.0 composite) becomes a massive liability. The London crowd at the O2 Arena will heavily favor Wood, adding pressure on Keita in his UFC debut.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Nathaniel Wood by Decision (38% probability), achieved through sustained pressure, volume striking, and grappling control over three rounds. Wood's KO/TKO path (22%) becomes viable through accumulative damage and late-round pressure when Keita fatigues. Keita's primary upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (18%) via explosive power shots in the first round. The Belgian's decision path (5%) requires maintaining range control throughout three rounds—unlikely against a pressure fighter of Wood's caliber competing at home.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 38% | Primary path via pressure and volume
GOOD VALUE
Model: 12% | Late pressure finishes
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 18% | Early explosive finish lane
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Debut discount undervalued – Market may underestimate the difficulty of a UFC debut.
- • Home crowd factor – Wood fighting in London creates energy and judges' familiarity.
- • Grappling unknown – Keita's untested ground game presents significant downside risk.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Nathaniel Wood
Primary path via pressure, volume, and experience
Late pressure and accumulative damage
Choke or armbar from clinch transitions
💥Outcome Distribution - Losene Keita
Best lane via early explosive power shots
Requires sustained range control over 3 rounds
Low historical submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Losene Keita
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum KO power window for Keita.
- • Explosive entries: Power shots before Wood establishes rhythm.
- • Range maintenance: Use reach to load up; avoid clinch exchanges.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Nathaniel Wood
- • Pressure output: 5.74 SLpM volume overwhelms debutant.
- • Grappling threat: Takedowns exploit untested defense.
- • Home crowd: London energy drives pace and judges' attention.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Good edge via experience and well-rounded skills, moderated by Keita's unknown ceiling and power threat
✅Supporting Factors
- • 10 UFC fights vs debut creates massive experience gap
- • Technical superiority: 58.0 vs 45.0 striking, 55.0 vs 30.0 grappling
- • 5.74 SLpM elite volume output with 52% accuracy
- • Multi-dimensional attack: striking, clinch, and takedowns
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Keita's unknown ceiling—debut fighters are unpredictable
- • 10 KO/TKOs and 81.3% finish rate create genuine power threat
- • 3-inch reach and 2-inch height advantages for Keita
🏁Executive Summary
Nathaniel Wood's UFC experience and well-rounded technical ability should allow him to control the pace and location of this fight against Losene Keita's UFC debut. Wood's 10 octagon appearances have developed a deep understanding of UFC-level competition that regional success simply cannot replicate. His composite advantages in both striking (58.0 vs 45.0) and grappling (55.0 vs 30.0) provide multiple paths to victory, while his 5.74 SLpM output with 52% accuracy can overwhelm a debuting fighter unfamiliar with UFC pacing. However, Keita's 81.3% finish rate and explosive KO power (10 KO/TKOs) create genuine upset potential, particularly in Round 1 where 7 of his stoppages have occurred. The Belgian's physical advantages (3-inch reach, 2-inch height) add another dimension to his threat, though these advantages diminish as Wood closes distance for clinch work and takedowns.
Prediction: Wood by Decision most likely (38% probability) through sustained pressure, volume striking, and grappling control over three rounds; Keita's upset lane is early KO/TKO (18%) via explosive power shots in the first round. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Keita can land clean power shots before Wood's experience, volume, and multi-dimensional attack overwhelm the debuting Belgian fighter.