Luan Lacerda vs Hecher Sosa
Bantamweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Saturday, March 14, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage) • UFC Apex, Las Vegas
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Luan Lacerda
13-3-0
Luan Lacerda
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Hecher Sosa
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Luan Lacerda
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Saimon Oliveira | Win | Submission (Armbar) (2, 3:55) |
| 2023-06-03 | Da'Mon Blackshear | Loss | TKO (Ground Punches) (2, 3:54) |
| 2023-01-21 | Cody Stamann | Loss | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
| 2022-05-13 | Marcirley Alves | Win | Submission (Rear Naked Choke) (2, 1:24) |
| 2021-07-16 | Tayron Pedro | Win | Submission (Heel Hook) (2, 1:06) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Hecher Sosa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-16 | Mackson Lee | Win | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-07 | Yaman Mjahed | Win | TKO (Elbow to Ground Strikes) (1, 0:52) |
| 2025-03-29 | Thiago Henrique | Win | KO/TKO (3, 3:12) |
| 2024-11-30 | Roger Blanque | Win | KO/TKO (1, 1:42) |
| 2024-09-14 | Douglas Felipe | Win | KO/TKO (1, 3:13) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (42.70 vs 58.00) and Grappling Composite (51.80 vs 64.20). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Luan Lacerda Key Advantages
Lacerda's 2.83 submissions per 15 minutes is an elite-level rate that creates constant danger whenever the fight goes to the ground. With 10 of his 13 wins by submission, including rear-naked chokes and guillotines, he possesses a diverse and lethal ground arsenal. His BJJ-based freestyle approach means he can threaten from guard, scrambles, and top position alike. Against Sosa, who has lost his only career defeat via submission, this represents a significant vulnerability to exploit. Every scramble, takedown exchange, or clinch break becomes a potential finishing sequence for Lacerda.
With three UFC appearances under his belt, Lacerda has already adapted to the promotion's unique pressures—the bright lights of the Apex, elite officiating, and the pace of the bantamweight division. His 1-2 UFC record, while not dominant, includes quality opponents like Farid Basharat and Da'Mon Blackshear. Sosa's UFC debut introduces uncertainty—debut fighters historically face adjustment challenges including cage jitters, referee tendencies, and the heightened intensity of UFC competition. The small cage at the Apex further compresses the action in Lacerda's favor.
Lacerda's 4.89 significant strikes per minute compared to Sosa's estimated 3.50 creates a meaningful volume edge on the feet. Combined with a 71-inch reach advantage over Sosa's 70 inches, Lacerda can maintain striking pressure while using his output to set up grappling exchanges. His body work is particularly effective at degrading opponents' cardio and wrestling ability over three rounds, creating late-fight submission opportunities as opponents fatigue from absorbing volume.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Sosa can establish consistent wrestling pressure with his 4.00 TD/15min takedown average against Lacerda's 66% defense, the fight could become a grinding affair that neutralizes Lacerda's BJJ. Sosa's wrestling-forward style aims to control position rather than submit, limiting Lacerda's ability to work from his preferred guard positions. Top control by Sosa would negate Lacerda's striking volume advantage and accumulate decision-winning rounds.
Lacerda absorbs 5.79 strikes per minute—a high rate that reflects his willingness to trade while seeking grappling entries. Against Sosa's 5 KO/TKO wins and superior 55% striking defense, this absorption rate becomes dangerous. Sosa's finishing power means any clean shots that land could create fight-ending moments, particularly in the pocket exchanges that Lacerda often initiates to close distance for clinch work.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Lacerda's optimal strategy involves initiating grappling exchanges through striking pressure, using his 4.02 SLpM output to force Sosa into reactive positions. When Sosa defends takedowns or attempts his own, Lacerda should capitalize on scramble sequences to hunt for rear-naked chokes and guillotines—his signature finishes. The small cage compresses distance and increases clinch frequency, benefiting Lacerda's transition game.
Investing in body shots early to degrade Sosa's wrestling base and cardio is critical. Lacerda's higher output rate can overwhelm Sosa's defensive striking if directed at the body, creating late-fight windows where submission attempts become more effective as opponents tire. Targeting the body also discourages Sosa from committing to takedowns that expose his midsection to knees and elbows.
🚀 Hecher Sosa Key Advantages
Sosa carries legitimate knockout power with 5 of his 13 wins by KO/TKO, including highlight-reel head kick finishes. His 64.3% finish rate demonstrates he's not content with decisions and actively hunts for stoppages. Against Lacerda, who absorbs 5.79 strikes per minute and often trades on the feet to set up grappling, Sosa's power shots could find a home. His ability to end fights explosively is particularly dangerous in the pocket exchanges that both fighters will likely engage in during this bantamweight clash.
Sosa's wrestling credentials are perhaps his most important weapon in this matchup. His 100% takedown defense means he cannot be taken down, allowing him to dictate where the fight takes place. His 4.00 TD/15min rate and 36% takedown accuracy suggest he's an aggressive wrestler who needs volume to succeed, grinding Lacerda against the cage and controlling from top position where the Brazilian's BJJ becomes less effective without space to work. This wrestling pressure neutralizes Lacerda's primary weapon while playing to Sosa's strength.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Sosa's only career loss came via submission, revealing a clear vulnerability. Against Lacerda's elite 0.90 submissions per 15 minutes and 10 career submission wins, this becomes a critical risk factor. Any scramble, failed takedown, or clinch exchange could lead to Lacerda locking in a rear-naked choke or guillotine. Sosa must maintain awareness of neck and back exposure at all times, particularly when transitioning from grappling exchanges.
Making his UFC debut against a fighter with three UFC appearances introduces significant uncertainty. The promotion's production, officiating standards, and pace of competition can overwhelm debutants. While Sosa's 13-1 record is impressive, it was built entirely outside the UFC ecosystem. The small cage at the Apex, combined with the pressure of performing on the biggest stage, could affect his timing, composure, and decision-making in critical moments.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Sosa's best path to victory involves using his wrestling to control the fight's location and pace. By securing early takedowns with his 4.00 TD/15min against Lacerda's 66% defense, the fight could become a grinding affair that neutralizes Lacerda's BJJ (which is more dangerous in open guard) while accumulating scorecards. Sosa's 100% takedown defense allows him to dictate exchanges, and his aggressive 4.00 TD avg means he can reliably get the fight where he wants it. Crucially, he must avoid staying in Lacerda's guard for extended periods—ground-and-pound from half guard and side control are safer positions.
Sosa should look to test Lacerda's chin early, exploiting his high absorption rate (4.80 SApM) with powerful shots. His 58% striking defense compared to Lacerda's 55% gives him an edge in exchanges. By establishing his power early, Sosa can make Lacerda hesitant to initiate the striking exchanges he uses to set up grappling entries. An early knockdown or significant damage could alter Lacerda's gameplan entirely, forcing the Brazilian to fight defensively rather than pursuing his typical pressure-to- submission approach.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The UFC Apex's 25-foot cage creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—heavily favoring Sosa's wrestling pressure and closing distance ability. The smaller octagon limits Lacerda's ability to circle away from Sosa's takedown entries, and the cage walls provide additional wrestling surfaces for Sosa to pin Lacerda and work from the clinch. However, the compressed space also increases clinch frequency, which could benefit Lacerda's transition game and scramble-based submissions. The fight's location will likely alternate between standing exchanges in tight quarters and grappling exchanges against the fence, creating opportunities for both fighters' primary weapons.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: damage economy and grappling initiative. The SApM differential is the single most important stat—Lacerda absorbs 5.79 strikes per minute while Sosa absorbs only 0.87, creating a massive damage imbalance in exchanges. Sosa's 4.00 TD/15min vs Lacerda's 2.29 gives him a significant wrestling activity advantage, and combined with Lacerda's 66% TDD, Sosa should complete 1-2 takedowns per round. However, Lacerda's 0.90 Sub/15min and 10 career submission wins mean every grappling exchange carries risk for Sosa. The tension between Sosa's positional control and Lacerda's submission threat creates a volatile dynamic that could swing the fight in either direction.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: submission defense during grappling exchanges, striking volume vs efficiency on the feet, and the UFC debut factor. Sosa's only career loss came via submission, making Lacerda's elite BJJ a constant threat—any careless transition could result in a submission loss even in rounds Sosa is winning. On the feet, Lacerda's 4.02 SLpM volume output meets Sosa's 55% striking defense and 0.87 SApM, creating an efficiency mismatch where Sosa lands cleaner despite lower volume. The wild card is Sosa's UFC debut— historically, debutants from smaller promotions underperform against the speed and athleticism of UFC-caliber opposition, which could narrow or widen the projected margins significantly.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Hecher Sosa by Decision (30% probability), achieved through consistent wrestling pressure, top control accumulation, and superior damage economy over three rounds. Sosa's KO/TKO path (20%) becomes viable through his finishing power—with 5 career KO/TKO wins against a fighter absorbing 5.79 SApM, clean power shots could create fight-ending moments. Lacerda's primary upset path is via Submission (27%)—his 10 career submission wins mean any grappling exchange carries danger for Sosa, particularly if Sosa shoots carelessly and exposes his neck. Lacerda's Decision (8%) and KO/TKO (3%) paths are significantly less likely given the stylistic matchup.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
GOOD VALUE
Model: 27% | Fair: +270
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 52% | Fair: -108
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Sosa's sample size – Only one UFC-tracked fight (DWCS) makes his stats unreliable at scale.
- • UFC debut adjustment – Debutants from smaller promotions historically underperform, narrowing Sosa's edge.
- • Submission volatility – Lacerda's 27% submission probability makes any grappling exchange a swing event.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Luan Lacerda
Requires sustained volume striking and activity control
Low KO power — unlikely finish path
Primary path via scramble-based submissions and guard work
💥Outcome Distribution - Hecher Sosa
Power shots against hittable opponent (5.79 SApM)
Primary path via wrestling control and positional dominance
D'Arce choke and top-position submissions
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Hecher Sosa
- • First 5 minutes: Highest KO/TKO equity with fresh power shots.
- • Wrestling control: Top pressure to negate BJJ off the back.
- • Short exchanges: Power shots then disengage; avoid extended clinch.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Luan Lacerda
- • Scramble hunting: Convert every grappling exchange into submission opportunity.
- • Volume pressure: 4.02 SLpM to degrade wrestling base and create openings.
- • Late R2/R3: Fatigued opponents are more vulnerable to chokes and locks.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate conviction — limited data on Sosa's UFC-level performance
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite submission game (0.90 Sub/15min, 10 career sub wins)
- • UFC experience edge (3 fights vs debut)
- • Higher striking volume (4.02 vs 2.13 SLpM)
- • Sosa's only loss came via submission
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Sosa's finishing power (5 KO/TKO wins)
- • Wrestling neutralization of BJJ
- • UFC debut adrenaline factor for Sosa
🏁Executive Summary
Luan Lacerda's elite submission game creates constant danger in this bantamweight matchup, with his 10 career submission wins representing one of the most prolific submission records in the division. Against Hecher Sosa, whose only career loss came via submission, this stylistic mismatch becomes the defining factor. Lacerda's 4.02 SLpM striking output provides the volume to set up grappling entries, while his UFC experience (3 fights vs Sosa's debut) provides an intangible comfort advantage in the small Apex cage. Sosa's path to victory runs through his wrestling (4.00 TD/15min, 100% TDD) and finishing power (5 KO/TKO wins), but he must avoid extended grappling exchanges where Lacerda's BJJ becomes lethal. The small cage at UFC Apex compresses distance and increases clinch frequency, generally favoring the more submission-oriented fighter.
Prediction: Sosa by Decision most likely (30% probability) through wrestling control and positional dominance; Lacerda's best path is Submission (27%) via scramble-based submission hunting and guard work. Sosa's early KO/TKO (20%) via power shots against Lacerda's poor striking defense (46%) remains a significant factor. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Sosa can maintain top position when wrestling or keep the fight standing, vs Lacerda converting exchanges into submission opportunities.