Bruno Silva vs Charles Johnson
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Saturday, March 14, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage) — UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Bruno Silva
15-7-2
Bruno Silva
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Charles Johnson
18-6-0
Charles Johnson
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Bruno Silva
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | HyunSung Park | W | Submission (RNC) (3, 2:15) |
| 2025-10-04 | Joshua Van | L | KO/TKO (Punches) (3, 4:01) |
| 2025-07-12 | Marc-Andre Barriault | L | KO/TKO (Elbows) (1, 1:27) |
| 2025-04-12 | Manel Kape | L | KO/TKO (Punches) (3, 1:57) |
| 2024-10-26 | Ismail Naurdiev | L | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Charles Johnson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Alex Perez | L | KO/TKO (Punch) (1, 3:16) |
| 2025-09-20 | Lone'er Kavanagh | W | KO/TKO (Punch) (2, 4:35) |
| 2025-06-14 | Ramazan Temirov | L | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-08 | Sumudaerji | W | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-16 | Joshua Van | W | KO/TKO (Punch) (3, 0:20) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Bruno Silva Key Advantages
Silva's 1.15 knockdown average is extraordinary for the flyweight division — three times higher than Johnson's 0.38. Having spent years fighting at middleweight (185 lbs), Silva carries power that most 125-pounders have never encountered. His KO victories over Cody Durden, Wellington Turman, and Brad Tavares demonstrate legitimate finishing ability against quality opposition. At flyweight, this disproportionate power becomes his career-defining weapon — he doesn't need to win the volume war, he needs one clean shot.
Despite poor takedown numbers (25% accuracy), Silva has 2 UFC submission victories, both via Rear Naked Choke. His most recent win — the RNC of HyunSung Park — showed excellent top control and back-taking ability. Silva's grappling success comes from scrambles, dirty boxing, and opportunistic transitions rather than deliberate level changes. If he can get Johnson to the mat through wall work or clinch exchanges, he becomes the more dangerous grappler with genuine finishing instincts on the ground.
The UFC Apex's 25-foot cage significantly benefits Silva's desire to close distance and engage in clinch work. His compact 5'4" frame gives him leverage advantages once inside Johnson's reach. In the smaller cage, Johnson has less space to circle away and maintain his preferred long-range distance. Silva's return to flyweight after fighting at middleweight means he'll feel physically stronger, faster, and more durable at 125 than in recent bouts at 185. The middleweight losses are essentially irrelevant to his flyweight capabilities.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If the fight stays at range for extended periods, Silva has almost no path to victory. Johnson's 5-inch reach advantage means Silva will be walking into shots trying to close distance, and Johnson's 4.73 SLpM volume will pile up on the scorecards. Silva's 52% striking defense leaves him vulnerable to accumulating damage from the outside.
If this fight reaches the 3rd round without Silva having hurt Johnson, his cardio limitations become the dominant factor. His 9:47 average fight time vs Johnson's 13:17 tells the whole story. Silva's 3rd-round KO losses to Van and Kape demonstrate that late-fight durability is a genuine vulnerability. Each failed takedown attempt (25% accuracy) burns critical energy and resets the fight at range — exactly where Johnson wants it.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Silva will come forward aggressively, looking to cut angles and close the massive distance gap as quickly as possible. He'll use the small cage to trap Johnson along the fence and initiate clinch exchanges where his leverage advantages come into play. Every second at range is a second lost — Silva needs to make this fight ugly and chaotic from the opening bell.
Once inside, Silva should work for a takedown or dirty boxing exchange, and look for the big shot or a scramble to the mat. If he can get Johnson's back against the cage within the first 90 seconds of each round, he creates opportunities for both power strikes and grappling transitions. His ideal sequence: pressure forward, force a clinch, work the body, and hunt for the knockout or RNC.
🚀 Charles Johnson Key Advantages
Johnson's 4.73 SLpM makes him one of the busiest strikers in the flyweight division. His 50% strike accuracy combined with high volume creates consistent scoring on every round. On the feet, Johnson will outwork Silva significantly — his output nearly doubles Silva's 2.83 SLpM. This volume advantage becomes decisive if the fight stays at range, especially in a 3-round fight where each round carries enormous weight on the scorecards.
Johnson's 70-inch reach vs Silva's 65 inches gives him a massive 5-inch advantage — enormous in a 125-lb fight. At 5'7" vs 5'4", Johnson can jab, kick, and circle from a distance Silva simply cannot reach. His 53% striking defense also means he absorbs less damage even when Silva closes distance. Johnson can control range with jabs, front kicks, and lateral movement, forcing Silva to overcommit on entries and exposing him to counters.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Silva manages to consistently close distance and engage in clinch fighting, Johnson's range advantages evaporate. Silva's 1.15 knockdown average is terrifying at close range — even getting caught once could end Johnson's night. The small cage compounds this risk by limiting Johnson's escape routes and making it easier for Silva to pin him against the fence.
Johnson's 57% takedown defense is below average for the flyweight division. If Silva gets him to the mat, his two RNC submission wins demonstrate a real finishing threat from top/back control. Johnson has been submitted three times in his career and lacks elite scrambling ability. Each time the fight goes to the floor, Johnson is at risk of a fight-ending submission.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Johnson needs to fight the entire bout at maximum range, utilizing his jab, front kicks, and lateral movement to keep Silva at the end of his punches. His 5-inch reach advantage is useless if he allows Silva to close the gap. Johnson should circle constantly, never plant his feet near the cage, and use push kicks to reset distance whenever Silva lunges forward.
Johnson should focus on outworking Silva with jabs, leg kicks, and combinations from the outside, racking up significant strikes on the scorecards while avoiding heavy exchanges. His 4.73 SLpM gives him a clear path to a decision victory if he can maintain discipline and avoid getting drawn into Silva's preferred brawling range. In a 3-round fight, winning 2 rounds with volume should be the primary objective.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot octagon at the UFC Apex creates a compressed battlefield that significantly impacts this matchup. The smaller cage limits Johnson's ability to fully exploit his 5-inch reach advantage — he has less space to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred fighting distance. Silva's pressure-fighting style is amplified in this environment where cage cutting requires fewer steps and clinch entries become easier to initiate. However, the small cage is a double-edged sword: while it helps Silva close distance, it also allows a disciplined fighter like Johnson to use the cage itself as a reference point for creating angles and firing counters. The cage dimensions make this fight more volatile — Silva's power becomes more dangerous with shorter closing distance, but Johnson's volume becomes harder to escape.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical profile reveals a classic power vs. volume matchup. Silva's 1.15 knockdown average dwarfs Johnson's 0.38, representing a 3x differential in fight-changing moments. However, Johnson's volume output (4.73 SLpM vs 2.83) nearly doubles Silva's, meaning Johnson will consistently outwork Silva on the feet. Johnson's 53% striking defense vs Silva's 52% creates a narrow gap, but his reach advantage means he can maintain this defense from further away. The critical differentiator is sustainability: Johnson's 13:17 average fight duration vs Silva's 9:47 indicates that Johnson wins the longer the fight goes, while Silva's best window is the opening 5-7 minutes when his power is most dangerous.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: distance management vs clinch entries, early power shots vs late-round volume, and takedown defense vs scramble ability. Johnson's 5-inch reach advantage means Silva must constantly close distance to be effective, but his 25% takedown accuracy suggests he struggles with entries. The grappling exchanges become pivotal — Johnson's 57% TDD leaves openings for Silva's clinch work and submission attempts. The most decisive factor may be the round-by-round cardio gap: Silva's 9:47 average fight time vs Johnson's 13:17 means round 3 heavily favors Johnson, while round 1 is Silva's best opportunity. If Silva can't land a significant power shot in the first 10 minutes, Johnson's path to a decision win becomes nearly insurmountable.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Charles Johnson by Decision (53% probability), achieved through superior striking volume, reach control, and cardio advantages over three rounds. Johnson's 4.73 SLpM output and 13:17 average fight duration profile him as a comfortable decision winner. Silva's primary upset lane centers on KO/TKO (22%) via his elite 1.15 knockdown average — his disproportionate flyweight power gives him a legitimate finishing threat in any exchange. Silva's submission path (5%) exists through back-takes and RNC opportunities but requires winning the range war first. Johnson's KO/TKO path (10%) becomes viable in late rounds if Silva's cardio fades and he walks into clean counters. With a conviction rating of 5.5/10, this fight carries significant volatility due to Silva's one-shot power and Johnson's recent KO loss to Alex Perez.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 53% | Fair: -113
GOOD VALUE
Model: 22% | Fair: +354
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 52% | Fair: -108
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Silva's power is underpriced – His 1.15 KD avg at flyweight makes KO/TKO props offer value.
- • Johnson quick turnaround risk – KO'd by Perez 7 weeks ago, chin durability concerns are real.
- • Small cage volatility – UFC Apex 25ft cage compresses range, increasing finish probability.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Bruno Silva
Silva has 0 UFC decision wins; needs a finish
Primary path via explosive power at 125 lbs
RNC path via back-takes in scrambles
💥Outcome Distribution - Charles Johnson
Late-round counters vs fatigued Silva
Primary path via volume and range control
Near-zero ground threat; freak scenario only
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Power Window - Bruno Silva
- • First 5 minutes: Highest finishing equity via explosive power.
- • Clinch entries: Use cage to close distance and dirty box.
- • One-shot threat: 1.15 KD avg means any exchange can end it.
🎯Volume Control - Charles Johnson
- • Range discipline: Jab, front kick, and circle to maintain distance.
- • Volume scoring: 4.73 SLpM builds insurmountable card lead.
- • Late rounds: Cardio superiority (13:17 avg) seals decision.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence; high volatility due to Silva's power
✅Supporting Factors
- • 5-inch reach and height advantage controls range
- • 4.73 SLpM volume nearly doubles Silva's output
- • Cardio superiority (13:17 vs 9:47 avg fight time)
- • Silva has 0 UFC decision wins; must finish
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Silva's 1.15 KD avg is elite at flyweight
- • Johnson KO'd by Perez 7 weeks ago; chin concerns
- • Small cage limits Johnson's range management
🏁Executive Summary
Charles Johnson's superior reach, striking volume, and cardio should allow him to control this fight at distance and outpoint Bruno Silva over three rounds in the UFC Apex. Johnson's 4.73 SLpM output nearly doubles Silva's 2.83, and his 5-inch reach advantage creates a range that Silva struggles to penetrate. Silva's explosive power (1.15 KD avg) represents the most dangerous threat — his one-shot finishing ability at flyweight is extraordinary, and any lapse in Johnson's discipline could end the fight immediately. The small cage at the Apex helps Silva compress distance, but Johnson's 13:17 avg fight duration vs Silva's 9:47 means time is Silva's enemy. The fight hinges on whether Silva can land his power shot before Johnson's volume and cardio superiority become insurmountable on the scorecards.
Prediction: Johnson by Decision most likely (53% probability) through superior range control and sustained volume; Silva's best path is KO/TKO (22%) via his elite knockdown average. Johnson's quick turnaround after a KO loss to Perez (7 weeks ago) introduces meaningful chin durability risk that suppresses overall conviction to 5.5/10.